Q Poll: Obama and Romney deadlocked in Florida
On the heels of a poll showing a coin flip in the high-profile, electoral vote-rich state of Pennsylvania, Quinnipiac turns their attention southward, to the state that arguably will get the most attention on Election Day 2012: Florida.
Despite the change in latitudes, there isn't much of a change in attitude: the president's numbers have eroded amid the debt ceiling fight in Washington. Despite that, Barack Obama remains no worse than at parity with his potential Republican challengers, a sign that while public esteem for the president may have slackened, it hasn't been met with a corresponding improvement in the public estimation of the GOP.
Quinnipiac (8/1-8/2. Registered Voters. Pre-deal [7/27-7/31] results in parentheses)
Barack Obama (D) 44 (46)
Mitt Romney (R) 44 (41)
Barack Obama (D) 44 (49)
Rick Perry (R) 39 (36)
Barack Obama (D) 50 (50)
Michele Bachmann (R) 38 (36)
Barack Obama (D) 53 (54)
Sarah Palin (R) 34 (33)
Interestingly, the president's cascading post-deal numbers come primarily from independent voters. Obama went from a one-point lead with indies pre-deal to a 14-point disadvantage with them post-deal. Obama also does marginally worse with Republicans, and marginally better with Democrats, echoing some post-deal national polling which suggests that ending the stalemate played better with Democrats than with Republicans or independents.
The deal did little to change the president's job approval, which had already taken a precipitous drop even before the deal. What was a 51/43 approval spread had already slipped to 44/50 in the week before the deal. Post-deal, the erosion had basically stopped, slipping an additional point to 44/51.
On the Republican side, Florida might be the first clear example that Rick Perry's likely entrance into the fray may make Michele Bachmann last month's news. With Perry in the mix, he immediately moves into second place, consigning Michele Bachmann to sixth place:
GOP Primary (FL)
Mitt Romney: 23
Rick Perry: 13
Ron Paul: 9
Sarah Palin: 9
Herman Cain: 8
Michele Bachmann: 6
Newt Gingrich: 4
Tim Pawlenty: 3
Others: 2
Quinnipiac also polled the current sentiment towards Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson, who stands for reelection next year. When paired against the always formidable "generic Republican," Nelson maintains a double-digit edge (46-35). The GOP field trying to displace Nelson is still wildly undefined. Little-known businessman Michael McCalister leads the field with just 15 percent of the vote, leading former Sen. George LeMieux (12 percent), former Ruth's Chris head honcho Craig Miller (8 percent), and state senator Adam Hasner (6 percent). The big winner, at this early stage, is "undecided," with more than half of the Florida Republican electorate still on the sidelines.