I had some time on my hands, so I created a nice writeup of Tuesday's recall elections against Republican state senators in Wisconsin. While I would prefer to wait until after tomorrow's round of polling to make my race ratings, I am getting my wisdom teeth removed tomorrow and may not feel up to it, so I am doing it now out of an abundance of caution.
District 32: State Sen. Dan Kapanke (R) vs. State Rep. Jennifer Shilling (D)
Dan Kapanke is the Republican Senator most likely to be removed from office. He has trailed by double digits in every poll of the race and almost no one on either side of the aisle expects him to survive. The reason for this is that unlike the other Republican senators being recalled, Kapanke represents a heavily Democratic (62% Obama) district that is based in LaCrosse. He has hung on by the skin of his teeth in the past despite being well to the right of his district by relying on a huge amount of goodwill he built up as a community leader before he began his political career and by going out of his way to maintain a moderate profile. However his vote for Scott Walker’s collective bargaining legislation and budget squandered away both of those things, and State Rep. Jennifer Shilling should beat Kapanke by double digits.
Most Recent Poll: Inside Michigan Politics: 57% Shilling, 43% Kapanke
Fatcathobbes' Race Rating: Likely Dem
District 18: State Sen. Randy Hopper (R) vs. Jessica King (D)
Hopper was originally thought to be almost as endangered as Kapanke, despite representing a Republican-leaning district based in Fond-du-Lac. Hopper won election to the seat in 2008 by under 200 votes and has been plagued by scandals involving his personal life and residency. (It was revealed that he has been living in Madison with a much younger woman with whom he was having an affair and his estranged wife signed the petition to recall him.) As a result of his narrow win and immense personal baggage, early polling showed Hopper trailing King, the deputy mayor of Oshkosh and his 2008 opponent, by almost twenty points. However, Hopper has come back from the political dead and now trails King by mid single digits. Because of Hopper’s strong fourth-quarter performance, Democratic strategists are beginning to wonder if King has what it takes to put this away. With that said though, a Hopper win would still be a surprise.
Most Recent Poll: Inside Michigan Politics: 54.70% King, 45.30% Hopper
Other Notable Polling: Public Policy Polling: 50% King, 47% Hopper
Fatcathobbes' Race Rating: Tossup/Tilt Dem
District 14: State Sen. Luther Olsen (R) vs. State Rep. Fred Clark (D)
Luther Olsen is a prime example of why running unopposed can be a double-edged sword. He has twice been elected to the State Senate from a sprawling, rural seat with no major party opposition, despite sitting in a district that Obama narrowly won. However, at least partially as a result of not campaigning, he has grown complacent and out of touch and is now a slight underdog to keep his seat. State Representative Fred Clark, despite an embarrassing gaffe that could be interpreted as misogynistic and the revelation that he ran a red light and seriously injured a cyclist about two years ago, has ran circles around Olsen in campaigning. Likewise, while neither man sets the world on fire as far as fundraising is concerned; Olsen was slow to anticipate the threat to his hold on the seat and didn’t start seriously fundraising until Clark had stockpiled an amount of money that has allowed him to heavily outspend Olsen. This race is likely to determine which party will control the Wisconsin Senate and polling shows Clark up by low to mid single digits.
Most recent poll: Public Policy Polling: 49% Clark, 47% Olsen
Other Notable Polling: Mellman Group 50% Clark, 44% Olsen
Fatcathobbes' Race Rating: Tossup/Tilt Dem
District 8: State Sen. Alberta Darling (R) vs. State Rep. Sandy Pasch (D)
This is, without question, the highest profile race in the battle for the State Senate. Alberta Darling, first elected in the early 1990s, represents a district which is divided between white liberals and blacks in northern Milwaukee County and blood-red suburban areas to the north and west of Milwaukee. The end result is a district where Obama won 51% of the vote. Although Darling started out heavily favored, largely due to her ability to raise huge amounts of money, she has been plagued by a number of missteps, including being videotaped saying nice things about the Ryan budget and insisting that making over $250,000 per year doesn’t make someone rich. Additionally, Sandy Pasch has run a nearly flawless campaign, taking a page from Kathy Hochul and hammering Darling relentlessly on her support of Paul Ryan’s Medicare plan and education cuts in the recently passed state budget, an issue which resonates particularly well in this mostly well-off suburban district. This race has already broken the record for the most expensive legislative race in Wisconsin history, and both unions and right-wing groups are pouring money into the race. Due to the high-profile nature of this campaign and the fact that Darling chairs the committee that wrote the law eliminating collective bargaining for most public employees, she is probably the senator that Democrats and labor unions would get the most satisfaction from beating. With polling showing this race tied with possibly a slight edge for Darling, they may get their wish.
Most Recent Poll: Public Policy Polling: 52% Darling, 47% Pasch
Other Notable Polling: Mellman Group: 47% Pasch, 46% Darling
Fatcathobbes' Race Rating: Pure Tossup
District 10: State Sen. Sheila Harsdorf (R) vs. Shelly Moore (D)
This is the one race where the Democrats failed to land a top-tier recruit. In spite of this, Shelly Moore, a high school teacher and union activist, has proven to be a strong fundraiser and campaigner, particularly for someone who has never run for office before. However the incumbent, Sheila Harsdorf, is no pushover. A member of a Northwest Wisconsin political family with a reputation as a dirty campaigner, she won her last campaign by a wider margin than any other senator being recalled with the exceptions of Rob Cowles and Luther Olsen, both of whom ran unopposed. The Republicans originally saw this seat as the one most likely to determine control of the senate, and as a result exerted a large amount of effort trying to undermine Moore’s candidacy. Right-wing groups spent a large amount of money trying to defeat Moore in the primary with a planted candidate. This campaign against Moore has given Harsdorf a low single digit lead in the polls. However, it doesn’t seem to have helped Republicans as they attempt to hold the state senate, since Darling and Olsen, whose races were initially expected to be less competitive than Harsdorf’s, are fighting for their political lives.
Most Recent Poll: Public Policy Polling: 50% Harsdorf, 45% Moore
Other Notable Polling: Internal leaked by Tommy Thompson: 49% Harsdorf, 47% Moore
Fatcathobbes' Race Rating: Tossup/Tilt Rep
District 2: State Sen. Rob Cowles (R) vs. Nancy Nusbaum (D)
Out of all of the Republican senators being recalled, Rob Cowles is probably the least likely to lose, which really isn’t saying much as he is locked in a competitive contest. He has served in the state legislature for almost thirty years and in the senate since the late 1980s, and is an institution in his Green Bay area district. However, this didn’t stop Democrats from recruiting a top-tier candidate to run against him. Nancy Nusbaum has a long track record in local politics, serving as a mayor and as Brown County (Green Bay) Executive and last appearing on the ballot in an unsuccessful run for Congress in 2006, losing to a self-funder in the primary. Despite Nusbaum’s strengths, Cowles is personally popular and enjoys a moderate image, and probably could have dealt with the recall attempt fairly easily if he had taken it seriously. However, he is unaccustomed to campaigning and raising money, having last faced a major-party opponent in 1996. As a result of this, Nusbaum has managed to catch Cowles napping, and he will probably at least get a scare. Polling shows Cowles leading by low single digits.
Most Recent Poll: Public Policy Polling: 51% Cowles, 47% Nusbaum
Fatcathobbes’ Race Rating: Tossup/Tilt Rep