Public Policy Polling: for Daily Kos & SEIU (8/4-7, MoE: ±3.1%, registered voters, Obama trendlines 7/28-31, all others 7/21-24):
It's not often you can point to a singular event and say, "Aha! There it is! That's why so-and-so's poll ratings have shifted" — especially over a short period of time. One clear exception to this was the temporary bounce President Obama saw after Osama bin Laden's death. Today, I'm prettty confident we're seeing another example, and this time, it's all about John Boehner.
Boehner's numbers have been on a long downward trend since the moment he became Speaker of the House. Indeed, in our very first national poll with PPP in early January, Boehner actually had a positive approval rating, 35-28. He long ago dipped into negative territory but his disapprovals had been hovering around the 40% mark for some time.
No more. In just a two-week span, the share of voters who have a negative view of the job John Boehner is doing spiked nine points, while his approval dropped one, for a net collapse of ten. The congressional GOP also saw its numbers fall by the same margin (albeit by a more even 5-and-5 split). Undoubtedly, Boehner's high profile during the debt ceiling debacle only hurt him and his party.
Of course, no one covered themselves in glory during the debt negotiations and ensuing deal — congressional Democrats sank, too. But the Republican numbers, and especially Boehner's numbers, really stand out. Will Boehner ever "recover"? Perhaps, though even if he returned to his recent trendline, his numbers would still be very poor. But right now, he's doing a great job of turning himself into a demon, and hopefully dragging the GOP down with him.