There's been a bunch of diaries/comments about last nights' results in Wisconsin, whether they should be spun as a "win" or a "loss" for the Dems given that we came up one shy of the number needed to retake the state Senate, and whether/how the results act as a bellweather/analogy for Congress at large at the national stage, etc etc.
However, there's a critical flaw being made by most of these analogies: They're based on 6 races instead of 9.
If you're going to keep score without cherry-picking which races to include, you have to also add in the 3 Democratic incumbent seats...two of which haven't been decided yet.
So, the score so far is not Dems: 2, GOP: 4.
The score is Dems: 3, GOP: 4 with 2 games left to play.
Assuming that the Dems manage to retain both of their seats next week, the final score will be Dems: 5, GOP: 4.
The fact that this still won't be enough for the Dems to retake the state Senate isn't quite as important as it seems; doing so wouldn't result in any reversals of the existing horrible policies that Walker & his cronies have rammed through so far. It would've been nice, of course, but it's a separate issue from the "scoreboard" theme.
So, last night's results can be spun as a "win" by either side, depending on your perspective.
But you know what would definitely be a loss (no spin) for the Dems?
If the final score ended up being 4:5, or, worse yet, 3:6...with 2 Dem seats and 2 GOP seats just swapping positions.
Not only would that leave the Wisconsin Senate exactly where it started, but the final conclusion by most people would be that the entire recall process was a huge waste of time, money and resources by both parties, which would discourage doing so in other states.
Anyway, there's 2 more races left to concentrate on. Let's do so, shall we?
Bob Wirch (WI-SD22) won his seat in 2008 with 66.7% of the vote, so it sounds like he's in pretty good shape--but there's gonna be GOBS of money thrown at him by the GOP, I'm sure, so we can't take any chances. His opponent is a guy named Jonathan Steitz, who I know nothing of.
Jim Holperin (WI-SD12) appears to be much more vulnerable, as he only won his seat with 51.2% of the vote last time around. Plus, his opponent is a certified nutbag (Kim Simac) who once compared public schools to Nazi Germany and who apparently has a bit of a state tax problem.