“When people feel uncertain, they'd rather have somebody that's strong and wrong than somebody who's weak and right.” -- Bill Clinton
But what do we see?
So, as a Times-reading, flaming-liberal, Democratic precinct committeeman, I'm assuming our leaders have focus groups and polling stats, and chess champions setting strategy, that tell them this slavish devotion to impossible compromise makes sense politically -- and we'll make up the policy deficits when we can. But, you know, as an average guy, this idea of President Obama's weakness looks like it's taking hold. And once that becomes conventional wisdom, it's gonna be hard, if not impossible, to turn around.
We know how many negotiations the President has begun by giving away his leverage:
Single payer and public option taken off the table at the start of the health care debate.
Debt increase and everything else off the table when turning the Bush tax cuts into the Obama tax cuts.
Fourteenth Amendment off the table when acquiescing to the draconian debt-increase spending cuts -- step by agonizing step in the debate giving away more and more to Tea Party demands.
So what have we as a country gotten for those concessions? Is there a pay-off? Are we better off? Will we be?
The costs have been huge. And the only benefits I can imagine are that: 1) well, maybe the results would have been worse if those initial positions had not been taken and 2) we're setting the stage for better results.
The first point is unprovable, though my guess is we'd be far better off on all fronts had the President taken stronger positions. Particularly on the debt increase, I believe that the economy and the President's political position would be much better off if he'd shown leadership and broken the deadlock by taking charge. The second point, though, seems like magical thinking. Can the President hope to increase his leverage and get re-elected by continually appearing weak? Can he turn that appearance around once the meme is set?
I mean I, average guy, am starting to think, Christ, maybe he really is weak. Can he possibly believe he's going to get some credit from anyone for giving away the store in a futile attempt to look like he's compromising?
Every time Mitch McConnell smiles and says there will never again be a clean debt limit vote, every time Boehner says he got 98% of what he wanted in the deal, the President looks weak. Then, of course, Republican talking heads blame him for the sickening economic fall out from the deal.
There are sides here. Voters, even low-information voters, know there are sides here. And if those low-information voters see a supposed leader who doesn't seem to know which side he's on, they're gonna go for someone who does.
Here's how to fight.