Since I haven't posted any fun with DRA lately, I figured I should try my hand at something new. So I did. I gave Pennsylvania a try.
Here were my ground rules. I worked my hardest to keep the lines as clean as possible while maintaining as close to exact population equity (within 100) as possible. I also tried to keep proper communities of interest in mind. (Native Keystoners, please let me know if I screwed up anywhere!) And when it came to VRA districts, I maintained a strongly (but NOT packed!) African-American Philly based district while keeping another minority-majority district entirely within Philly. And while the final results weren't quite my ideal, I certainly believe these districts make more sense than the gerrymandered hot mess Pennsylvania currently has.
So what are my results? Come with me and see for yourself!
SEPA/Metro Philadephia:
PA-01 (Dark Blue):
US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 78.0%
McCain (R) 21.2%
Estimated PA-Sen 2010
Sestak (D) 79%
Toomey (R) 21%
Estimated PA-Sen 2006
Casey (D) 79%
Santorum (R) 21%
PA-02 (Green):
US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 90.9%
McCain (R) 8.7%
Estimated PA-Sen 2010
Sestak (D) 91%
Toomey (R) 9%
Estimated PA-Sen 2006
Casey (D) 91%
Santorum (R) 9%
PA-03 (Purple):
US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 61.2%
McCain (R) 38.0%
Estimated PA-Sen 2010
Sestak (D) 55%
Toomey (R) 45%
Estimated PA-Sen 2006
Casey (D) 63%
Santorum (R) 37%
PA-08 (Slate Blue):
US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 53.7%
McCain (R) 45.2%
Estimated PA-Sen 2010
Toomey (R) 53%
Sestak (D) 47%
Estimated PA-Sen 2006
Casey (D) 59%
Santorum (R) 41%
Here are the actual Philly districts. PA-01 lies entirely within the city, and it's 48.7% White VAP (22.8% African-American VAP, & 18.5% Latino VAP). Bob Brady will be just fine here... And so will Chaka Fattah in PA-02, which is 63.1% African-American VAP and mostly Philly with just an extension into Cheltenham in Montgomery County (MontCo). Obviously both seats are hyper-Democratic, and both seats will have no problem electing strong progressive Democrats in the future.
However, not all the Philly seats are hyper-Democratic. PA-08 remains a quintessential swing district that's mostly Bucks County, but extends southward to capture much of Northeast Philly. Republican Mike Fitzpatrick can theoretically hold this seat, as he's used to the Presidential results not working in his favor, but it will be increasingly difficult with the current Congressional votes (such as his vote for "Ryancare") piling up. Back in Montgomery County, however, Allyson Schwartz should have an easier time in the new PA-03 (most of it was formerly PA-13). It's mostly Southeast MontCo with a little bit of Northwest Philly (which is very demographically similar to MontCo), and at over 60% Obama she should be able to coast along here.
PA-06 (Teal):
US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 53.5%
McCain (R) 45.3%
Estimated PA-Sen 2010
Toomey (R) 55%
Sestak (D) 45%
Estimated PA-Sen 2006
Casey (D) 55%
Santorum (R) 45%
PA-07 (Silver):
US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 59.5%
McCain (R) 39.6%
Estimated PA-Sen 2010
Sestak (D) 55%
Toomey (R) 45%
Estimated PA-Sen 2006
Casey (D) 61%
Santorum (R) 39%
Jim Gerlach should be careful of what he wishes for. On paper, the new PA-06 is probably everything he can want in a more exurban district that's all Berks County plus Northwest MontCo and Northern Chester County and much more GOP friendly. However, PA-06 absorbs plenty of Berks County territory from the old PA-17... Along with a tiny bit of Schuylkill County just south of Tim Holden's house! (You'll later see more of what happens to Holden's old gerrymandered district.) It would be awfully hilarious to see a rural Blue Dog Dem like Holden challenge an old school "moderate Philly Republican" like Gerlach in a mostly exurban district (plus Reading).
And Pat Meehan looks to be just plain screwed in the new PA-07. This redrawing reunites all of Delaware County (taking back heavily Democratic minority-majority communities like Upper Darby and Chester from the old PA-01), and just sticks to taking in the eastern suburbs of Chester County. If Joe Sestak wants his old job back, this district looks tailor made for him.
"The Pennsylvania T"- East:
PA-04 (Red):
US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 56.0%
McCain (R) 42.7%
Estimated PA-Sen 2010
Toomey (R) 51%
Sestak (D) 49%
Estimated PA-Sen 2006
Casey (D) 58%
Santorum (R) 42%
PA-11 (Chartreuse):
US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 57.6%
McCain (R) 41.4%
Estimated PA-Sen 2010
Sestak (D) 55%
Toomey (R) 45%
Estimated PA-Sen 2006
Casey (D) 63%
Santorum (R) 37%
PA-10 (Pink):
US-Pres 2008
McCain (R) 55.9%
Obama (D) 42.7%
Estimated PA-Sen 2010
Toomey (R) 65%
Sestak (D) 35%
Estimated PA-Sen 2006
Santorum (R) 54%
Casey (D) 46%
So can you now see Tim Holden's dilemma under my map? Most of Schuylkill County has been placed into a more rural PA-10 that's even more Republican than his old PA-17. And while Holden has been able to hold down tough districts before, this may finally be that hill too steep for even him to climb. GOP Freshman Tom Marino is likely favored for reelection, even against Chris Carney again.
Charlie Dent, on the other hand, is still in trouble. The new PA-04 has most of what was in the old PA-15, including both Allentown and Bethlehem, except it trades in tendrils into Berks and Montgomery Counties for the vast majority of Carbon County. It hardly changes the partisan composition of the district, but that may still spell trouble for Dent if his vote for "Ryancare" isn't fondly remembered here.
Another Republican in deep trouble is Lou Barletta. Just like the old PA-11, the new PA-11 is anchored by Scranton... But this new district drops most of its old western territory to reunite all of Lackawanna County and make up for the strong growth in Monroe County (which is increasingly becoming a NYC exurb). The end result is a slightly more Democratic district where Barletta can no longer run against a controversial Democratic incumbent, but will have to defend his controversial votes for "Ryancare" and against badly needed infrastructure funds for the district.
PA-09 (Cyan):
US-Pres 2008
McCain (R) 52.6%
Obama (D) 46.5%
Estimated PA-Sen 2010
Toomey (R) 62%
Sestak (D) 38%
Estimated PA-Sen 2006
Santorum (R) 53%
Casey (D) 47%
PA-12 (Baby Blue):
US-Pres 2008
McCain (R) 50.5%
Obama (D) 48.4%
PA-Sen 2010
Toomey (R) 62%
Sestak (D) 38%
PA-Sen 2006
Casey (D) 51%
Santorum (R) 49%
PA-05 (Gold):
US-Pres 2008
McCain (R) 61.7%
Obama (D) 37.2%
Estimated PA-Sen 2010
Toomey (R) 72%
Sestak (D) 28%
Estimated PA-Sen 2006
Santorum (R) 58%
Casey (D) 42%
Todd Platts faces a tough choice. Does he want to continue representing the City of York by running in the new PA-12? Or does he want to avoid a potentially difficult general election matchup against Tim Holden (the new PA-12 has the bulk of his old PA-17 with Dauphin and Lebanon Counties) by running in the open PA-05 instead?
Joe Pitts, however, has a much easier choice with the new Lancaster/Chester based PA-09. Even though his own hometown of Kennett Square was drawn into PA-07, I suspect he'd much rather move a few miles west into a safe and cozy GOP stronghold than face a primary against Pat Meehan only to win the right to lose to Joe Sestak in the general.
"The Pennsylvania T"- West:
PA-13 (Salmon):
US-Pres 2008
McCain (R) 55.6%
Obama (D) 43.1%
Estimated PA-Sen 2010
Toomey (R) 61%
Sestak (D) 39%
Estimated PA-Sen 2006
Casey (D) 50%
Santorum (R) 50%
PA-14 (Olive):
US-Pres 2008
McCain (R) 58.5%
Obama (D) 40.1%
Estimated PA-Sen 2010
Toomey (R) 65%
Sestak (D) 35%
Estimated PA-Sen 2006
Casey (D) 53%
Santorum (R) 47%
PA-18 (Bright Yellow)
US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 50.6%
McCain (R) 48.0%
PA-Sen 2010
Toomey (R) 53%
Sestak (D) 47%
PA-Sen 2006
Casey (D) 55%
Santorum (R) 45%
Glenn Thompson has nothing to worry about in the new PA-13. Though his home base of Centre County often swings Democratic, it regularly gets drown out by all the surrounding Republican strongholds.
Mark Critz and Mike Kelly, on the other hand, have plenty. Democrat Critz loses the formerly gerrymandered PA-12 to instead be placed (along with the rest of Johnstown) into a far more Republican PA-14. And Republican Kelly loses the formerly gerrymandered PA-03 to instead be placed (barely!) into the new PA-18 that Barack Obama carried in 2008 and has fewer rural votes to drown out Democratic Erie County.
And finally, Pittsburgh!
PA-15 (Orange):
US-Pres 2008
McCain (R) 54.4%
Obama (D) 44.5%
Estimated PA-Sen 2010
Toomey (R) 57%
Sestak (D) 43%
Estimated PA-Sen 2006
Casey (D) 57%
Santorum (R) 43%
PA-16 (Lime Green):
US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 64.7%
McCain (R) 34.3%
Estimated PA-Sen 2010
Sestak (D) 62%
Toomey (R) 38%
Estimated PA-Sen 2006
Casey (D) 72%
Santorum (R) 28%
PA-17 (Slate Blue):
US-Pres 2008
McCain (R) 51.5%
Obama (D) 47.6%
Estimated PA-Sen 2010
Toomey (R) 54%
Sestak (D) 46%
Estimated PA-Sen 2006
Casey (D) 58%
Santorum (R) 42%
Tim Murphy has been drawn out of the bulk of his old district, so he (like many other incumbents) faces a tough choice with this map. Should he opt for the more Republican PA-15 that has all the suburban Pittsburgh counties that have been trending Republican as of late? Or does he run in his new home district of PA-17 and run against Jason Altmire in an all Beaver/Alleghany district (that has more of Altmire's old territory)? Especially if Murphy decides to run in PA-15, Altmire lucks out with a slightly more Democratic district that has more traditionally blue collar Democratic towns (even if some have been trending more GOP recently) to offset the more white collar Republican strongholds.
Meanwhile in the city, Mike Doyle should be fine. His former gerrymandered safe Democratic district radically transforms into... A more compact safe Democratic district that takes in all of Pittsburgh along with the closest suburbs to the south and east of the city. Perhaps Doyle won't be excited about a district that's 5% less Democratic, but it's still super safe and he has this seat for as long as he wants it.
So that's all, folks! And in case you weren't keeping score, here's the final count:
Safe Republican: PA-05, PA-09, PA-10, PA-13
Lean Republican: PA-06, PA-14, PA-15
Tossup: PA-04, PA-08, PA-12, PA-18
Lean Democratic: PA-11, PA-17
Safe Democratic: PA-01, PA-02, PA-03, PA-07, PA-16
So my fair map makes for a 5D-9S-4R map. In a good Republican year, a 6-12 map may be quite doable. But in a good Democratic year, an 11-7 map is a real possibility. And where Tim Holden finally lands can add even more volatility in this map. The Harrisburg based PA-12 is probably the most appealing option for him (and a district he can easily take out of "Tossup" territory), but the new PA-06 is also an option if he's feeling bullish about his chances against Jim Gerlach.