The race for the Mayor's seat in Phoenix, Arizona is shaping up to be something of a proxy battle between the two wings of the GOP.
On one side, you have the establishment "old guard" comprising the Wall Street interests and pols such as John McCain.
On the other, the (McCain described-)Tea Party hobbits of movement conservatism backed by tax-adverse zealots.
And what you end up with is a visible battle for the soul of the Republican party.
This year's race for the Mayor's seat of Phoenix is actually quite anomalous. For one, this is the first time in a decade that there is no clear front-runner. Second, party affiliation and national politics are front and center.
And finally, the coup de grace - the rise of Tea Party voting blocs and purity testing candidates.
To be honest, the race for Mayor is just one of a series of attempts of the Tea Party movement conservatives to fundamentally re-cast the GOP in the mold of Barry Goldwater (and the mythical Saint Reagan).
The first shot was the Tea Party desire to avenge the 2008 turnover to Barack HUSSEIN Obama by actively courting a primary against John McCain- in the form of hard-righter JD Hayworth (it ultimately failed).
Then, the ascension of anti-immigrant zealot Russell Pearce via SB1070, and his teahadist coattails that gave Blank-Stare Jan the Governorship- along with a practical sweep of all competitive races.
The next shot was the GOP precinct elections earlier this year, where McCain and Kyl earned the ire of the AZ GOP - leading to the election of an ultra-conservative State Chairman.
Shortly thereafter, they forced out an elected GOP committeeman with constant threats, mere days after Gabby Giffords was shot in Tucson.
Today in the Phoenix Mayor's race, we see the same establishment v. movement dynamic play out again:
Wes Gullett (lobbyist and McCain delegate/supporter) versus a race-to-the-right crowd of TEA drinkers. Indeed, out of six (6!) candidates for mayor, a full five are GOPers- with two claiming the "true conservative" Tea Party mantle. I've never seen more signs claiming someone was the "Conservative Choice"... ever.
(I mean, they are like every 10 yards in some places- come on!!!)
The city race officially is nonpartisan, but much of the bickering has been contained among the conservatives who are vying for Republican voters and may end up fighting for a spot in a runoff election this fall.
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"The tone of the mailers right now shows how concerned the Republican candidates are about how close the race is for them," Pearson said. "As these messages get increasingly negative, it's usually an indication that the candidates are getting increasingly desperate to make a name for themselves."
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The two "moderates" - Gullett and Claude Mattox - haven't gone full TEA yet. But like a snake shedding their skin, others are. Peggy Neely is a candidate who is a clear establishment player, even gaining the endorsement of former Mayor Skip Rimsza. Neely has managed to shed any semblance of being a moderate she once had on the Council, and now truly is a Tea Party TEA drinker. She even gained the endorsement of severely anti-union Councilman Sal DiCiccio.
The debate has been controversial, because Brennan and Wright - the most conservative candidates in the field - didn't meet the chamber's requirement that candidates raise at least $50,000 in contributions to participate. Wright, backed by some city "tea party" groups, has lobbed attacks at fellow conservatives, recently sending out a news release titled "What is Peggy afraid of?" It suggests Wright could capture the second spot in the November runoff over Neely if she were allowed in the debate.
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"Deciding among the conservative candidates was a tough decision," Chodras said. "A lot of the times, it sounds like they're all saying the same thing."
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Of course, just because you win a spot in the runoff, doesn't mean you will appeal to the general public. With Tea Party movement at a horrible 51% unfavorable rating, the candidates' associations and viewpoints may very well be their undoing.
"In this race to 'out-conservative' each other, the entire Republican bloc is coming off as out of touch and unaware of where independents stand," said Pearson, an independent. "The messages are recycled national mantra and not specific to Phoenix and what the Valley is facing."
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But is their goal really to win the elections? Or is it to transform the Republican party into their conservative dream party- in order to re-enact the legend from which the name of this city came.
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The Phoenix, a bird of fire, burned itself to ashes near the end of its life - to be born anew.
But not just for this city - for the whole country.