At the moment, there is a strange dynamic unfolding regarding "that guy from Texas". He is ridiculed for his lack of intelligence and looked upon as some hillbilly farm boy. That is, in my opinion, caused by an unhealthy reflex of the Left to attack him in an ineffective way.
My diary consists of an analysis why I think Perry will be the nominee and what our right course of action, the right course of action for all Daily Kos members, would be in the fight for the White House.
Frankly, fellow Kos members, I don't like the way all that is going.
Casting Perry as dumb won't help us a bit. Bush was a total dumbass during his whole Presidency and the majority of the electorate simply ignored it. They will ignore it with that one, too. As long as he is in sync with Tea Party values, noone cares.
We have to chose more effective means. At the moment it is the old game again: Right wing guy says something stupid, the Left bashes him gleefully, the Right is united behind him. That is the damn Bush reflex and it was frustrating back then, because it born out of helplessness. We are not helpless.
Look, frankly I don't care at all if Obama is, in your eyes, lacking some "vigor" or does not "fight enough". Maybe. But he is the smartest guy we had in ages, an honest man and a good person. I will vote for him no matter what. And no, he won't gut Medicare and Social Security in a way that reduces benefits. That is nonsense.
Back to RI.P.: Daily Kos needs to be more that a Fool's Guild for educated jokes. We must be an effective think tank of the Left. We have the people for that. Therefore, we must clearly analyze the Republican field and forge battle plans right now, in a concentrated and calm way.
Let me start with my analysis regarding the Republican nomination:
Slick Larry wins it.
1. He is a man. That counts for much. That is why he beats Bachmann. On a primitive, primitive level, male candidates are simply better enabled to project that sense of strength and security a Republican voter's reptilian brain wants. It's that easy.
2. He is 100 % red meat. He is no Bush, he is more: He believes in everything he says or at least he can make the impression he does. He is ideologically pure. The Gore endorsement won't sink him, TransTexas, the damn vaccine or anything else. That all is easily dismissed as "yesterday's news". I have a feeling Republicans simply want him, and the buzz is getting bigger each day. He is being pushed so much by the media, it's crazy.
3. He is a smart tactician, but not by thinking or analysis, rather by instinct. That is quite dangerous. Clinton had it, too. Simple words with the power to bring a crowd to its feet. Expect the Right to counter Bush comparisons with Reagan comparisons. Where Obama weaves great nets of elaborate speeches, Perry creates quick storms of raw emotion. Hard to counter.
4. Romney can't hold his own against all that. Republicans don't want him, he is the guy you invite to your party if there happens to be a free cinema ticket left, nobody else wants it and you would totally hate to let it expire. You choose him if you have no choice. And he is just passive at the moment. In my opinion, his reputation is damaged beyond belief: Flip-flopper, Mitt 9.0, robot, weird. That is enough. "corporations" won't matter, believe me, it's is not straightforward enough. But it won't need to work.
5. My prediction, and everything seems to point to the fact that that is the most likely outcome:
- Perry clearly wins Iowa. He will draw from Bachmann's support, steadily and coldly.
Christie won't matter here and anywhere else. My feeling is that Christie is different: Rather than Perry, he is the train wreck waiting to happen. He could never get the nomination.
Paul Ryan won't be competitive: He gives the impression of a 30-year old, he has weak eyes and can't project strength and security. "He is too young" would he his biggest disadvantage (apart from the MediScare business).
Palin won't enter the race. If she could not make a dent into Perry's rise, she would be permanently damaged. The stars do not align for her this time and she seems to slowly get it.
So: Perry will win Iowa with 35-40 % of the vote (Cain and Santorum will be below 5 % until then), Bachmann and Romney both with about 15-20 %, Paul at 10 %.
- Perry will be competitve in New Hampshire. He is polling very well there at the moment and I only see him going up. Romney will win, but only with 30-35 %, Perry will be within 5-10 % behind him, the rest of the vote will be splintered with Bachmann and Paul getting each about 10 %.
- Perry will dominate South Carolina. He will have a very strong momentum from Iowa, unhampered by New Hampshire, and the Republicans will begin to coalesce behind him. Expect 50-55 % of the vote, with Bachmann under 20 % and Romney under 15 %. Bachmann will be effectively out of the race by then, Romney will be badly hurt.
-Perry will win Florida easily: Momentum will be even stronger by way of his SC win, so 40 - 45 %. The rest does not matter. He will have it locked before Super Tuesday, despite Romney fighting on and getting some praise for that.
And then ... After that it's all up to people like us to prevent a future we don't want and a pain the American people don't deserve. So, we need to find a way: Analyze him, search for the most efficient weak spots, define them with flashy phrases and circulate them around.
And: We must stop wasting our time with jokes. Jokes are a means of the helpless, of the suppressed subjects, the weak ones. Fighters don't joke about their opponent, they boldly step into the ring.
That's what we will do. 2012 has already begun.