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This, unfortunately, comes at a good time for Ohio Gov. John Kasich.

Public Policy Polling (PDF) (8/11-14, Ohio voters, 5/19-22 (PDF) in parens):

Q: This fall, Ohio will have a referendum on whether to approve or reject Senate Bill 5, which was passed earlier this year and limits collective bargaining rights for public employees. If the election was today, would you vote to approve or reject Senate Bill 5?

Approve SB5: 39% (35%)
Reject SB5 50% (55%)

Repeal of SB 5 continues to hold a substantial lead, but things have tightened up a bit, just as Kasich is floating compromise in an attempt to look like a reasonable guy. Kasich's own approval ratings have also improved somewhat: He's now at 36/53, up from 33/56 in May.

Tom Jensen writes:

The odds are still stacked against SB 5 staying enacted but just like we saw in the Wisconsin recalls the anger is not there at the same level it was during the spring, which has to be a slight cause of concern for those working to reject it.

The repeal campaign has to this point shown stellar organization and Ohioans are still opposed to SB 5. But as this poll shows, nothing can be taken for granted, especially with Kasich trying to play reasonable. We Are Ohio made a good move yesterday in making clear that they'd be open to discussions once SB 5 is repealed and no longer clouding the picture; that makes it harder for Kasich to say they're unwilling to compromise.

Originally posted to Daily Kos Labor on Fri Aug 19, 2011 at 09:03 AM PDT.

Also republished by KasichWatch, Progressive Hippie, and Daily Kos.

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Comment Preferences

  •  To me that poll question is confusing. (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    TofG, LordMike, bythesea
  •  Commentators Here Have Pointed Out Alas That (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    bythesea

    much in the bill is supported in Ohio. There are many ways for this to be a small speed bump in Kasich's highway to making Ohio the new Louisiana and worse.

    I'm not worried yet though about mid August polls for anything that isn't being voted on in August. We're at the end of summer vacation season for those with school kids, and not yet there for those without them.

    We are called to speak for the weak, for the voiceless, for victims of our nation and for those it calls enemy.... --ML King "Beyond Vietnam"

    by Gooserock on Fri Aug 19, 2011 at 09:10:47 AM PDT

  •  Another perspective (5+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    suzq, TofG, JC from IA, LordMike, bythesea

    I would suggest that even if the repeal passes with a much reduced margin (I SERIOUSLY doubt that it will fail, unless withdrawn), if Kasich and company have any working brain cells at all (?), this should scare the beejus out of them and temper their over reaching efforts.  A win for Ohio, no matter what.

    In 2010, I paid more taxes than General Electric.

    by GrogInOhio on Fri Aug 19, 2011 at 09:13:55 AM PDT

  •  Get why Kasich is in panic mode (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    TofG, LordMike, bythesea

    "Rick Perry talks a lot and he's not very bright. And that's a combination I like in Republicans." --- James Carville

    by LaurenMonica on Fri Aug 19, 2011 at 09:31:19 AM PDT

  •  Well, (7+ / 0-)

    I would never underestimate the effects of Koch Bros. money on this thing come the Fall. They will try to freak out Ohioans with all kinds of dire predictions about how repeal will jeopardize your children, every major corp. will leave the state and take all the jobs, blah, blah, blah.
    Expect a wall to wall bulllshit media blitz before this is said and done. We'll win in the end, but not without a fight.

    Just another day in Oceania.

    by drshatterhand on Fri Aug 19, 2011 at 09:34:02 AM PDT

  •  Quinnipiac (7+ / 0-)

    Quinnipiac had the margin at 56-32 just last month.  Double digit cushion is more important than anything at this point and Kasich IS panicking.  Jackass that he is.

  •  You bring up an excellent point about voter anger (6+ / 0-)

    I have little doubt, for instance, that Dems would have done even better in the recalls, had voters not had months to cool off.

    So, once a recall of a politician or a bill has been successfully organized, how do the organizers keep up the voter intensity that spurred the recall in the first place?  Particularly when opposition has time to try to remake their image into reasonable and compromising?

  •  Local media polls are not helping (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, TofG, wishingwell, mchestnutjr

    Yesterday, one of the major papers had up a multi-question poll about various issues like retirement or health care costs for public employees. The way it was structured, people were led to believe that workers pay for nothing, right now, which isn't the case.  Anyone looking at the poll results would think that people were actually supporting SB 5 because of their negative responses.

    The example that jumped out at me was about the state retirement contributions. The question asked if public employees should be made to pay 10% of their pay towards retirement, which 75% of the respondents thought they should.  But NOWHERE did the poll mention that in fact, public employees already do pay 10% towards their retirement, matching the employer share. It also didn't let people know that the levels of contributions had already been raised three times in the last couple of years in response to pension fund shortfalls due in part to poor investments (Enron, rare coins, etc.).  

    "I'm not a humanitarian. I'm a hell-raiser." Mother Jones

    by histopresto on Fri Aug 19, 2011 at 09:45:29 AM PDT

  •  I'm wondering if attention and anger (6+ / 0-)

    will increase when the school year starts and the public is interacting with teachers and schools more.

    If Liberals hated America, we'd vote Republican.

    by ord avg guy on Fri Aug 19, 2011 at 09:50:48 AM PDT

  •  We will do our negotiating at the polls in (4+ / 0-)

    November.

    Republicans are like alligators. All mouth and no ears.

    by Ohiodem1 on Fri Aug 19, 2011 at 09:56:30 AM PDT

  •  Republished to KasichWatch. nt (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, Hillbilly Dem

    Republicans are like alligators. All mouth and no ears.

    by Ohiodem1 on Fri Aug 19, 2011 at 09:58:22 AM PDT

  •  Anger is good to start with, hard to sustain... (0+ / 0-)

    I've watched this routine over and over here in California. Prop 13, Prop 8, 3 Strikes, Environment/Oil issues. Strong public support...months later, ho hum. Or worse.

    Have any messaging specialists been able to drill into what 'messages' are the main ones driving public opinion. I don't think Progressives can continue to rely only on positive pix of teachers, firefighters to hold public support.

    I'm wondering if a broader campaign focusing on d-democracy and a Social Contract defined by the grassroots would work. Or maybe that's just too abstract...

    •  You can bet the Republicans have had their (0+ / 0-)

      Luntzian Focus groups to find out what word work in Ohio on this.

      We need to fasten our chin straps, this one is going to be brutal and highly advertised.

      One of the primary goals of a right wing nasty, nasty campaign is to make moderate voters stay home on election day.  We need to have our counter to that messaging ready, and not be too short of funds and the nerve to make that counter argument as soon as we need to make it.  In fact, we should be pro-active and put the Republicans on the defensive because they really don't know how to play defense and they don't like it.

      Republicans are like alligators. All mouth and no ears.

      by Ohiodem1 on Fri Aug 19, 2011 at 02:22:15 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  First Kasich (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    drmah

    Took away public employee union collective bargaining rights and now he wants to bargain.

    No, John, now the bus is headed straight toward you.

    If I was a communist, rich men would fear me...And the opposite applies. The history of all hitherto existing society is the history of class struggles.

    by stewarjt on Fri Aug 19, 2011 at 11:45:09 AM PDT

    •  He only wants to bargain when he knows he has (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      stewarjt

      already lost.  Let's humiliate him at the polls this November.  No deal, no bargain, we negotiate at the polls with our vote.  Big turnout wins elections for Democrats in Ohio and elsewhere.  GOTV.

      Republicans are like alligators. All mouth and no ears.

      by Ohiodem1 on Fri Aug 19, 2011 at 02:24:32 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Neighboring R Gov. Mitch Daniels lost ground in (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    stewarjt, Ohiodem1

    court, yesterday.  In his draconian plan to end teacher's bargining rights he had section which allowed school corperations to add additional instructional days at the end of the school year---up to three weeks---without paying additional salaries.  Court said, "Oh no you don't."  Small victory, but we'll take anything we can get.

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