You can find part 1 (NorCal and the Bay Area) here:
In the last part I discussed all districts from NorCal down to about Merced County (district 27).
Let's do the rest of the Central Valley and South California now and save LA and OC Counties for the last installment.
First of all, since my AD-24 is really terrible, I made a few changes to the map I presented in the last installment.
1) LD-23 loses Watsonville (heavily Hispanic) to the Salinas-based seat. That's a better fit and it also makes the Salinas seat majority-minority.
2) In turn, LD-23 soaks up the San Jose parts of LD-24, making LD-24 less awkward. The San-Jose parts of 24 are now for the most part just empty mountains.
3) LD-24 takes up Oakdale Northeast of Modesto. These changes make it a swing district, that went 56.4% for Obama and 50.9% for Brown. There still wouldn't be an incumbent.
4) The Modesto seat adds in Ceres and Patterson. Berryhill now does live in the district, creating an Olsen-Berryhill primary. The two represent equally large part of the district, but Olsen more Republicans. The seat also goes from a narrow McCain victory to 52.1% Obama/52.2% Whitman.
5) Completing the swapping, the Merced County seat adds San Benito County. Not a perfect fit, but probably better than both the SanJose-SanJoaquin pairing it helped dissolve and better than the San Benito-Salinas pairing in the old map.
That makes the seat-- the 27th-- about 1.5% more Democratic, and a classic swing seat that went 54.5% for Obama and 51.8% for Whitman.
Now, for the new districts:
AD-28
Obama 48.6 %, McCain 51.4 %
Brown 41.1 %, Whitman 58.9 %
White 45 %, Hispanic 36 %, Asian 11 %, Black 5 %
WhiteVAP 51 %, HispanicVAP 31 %, AsianVAP 11 %, BlackVAP 5 %
Linda Halderman (R) 79%, Henry Perea (D) 21%, Wesley Chesbro (D) 0%, Wesley Chesbro (D) 0%, Wesley Chesbro (D) 0%
Devin Nunes (R) 46%, Jeff Denham (R) 43%, Jim Costa (D) 11%, Mike Thompson (D) 0%, Mike Thompson (D) 0%
Splitting Fresno is necessary, and I thought doing it along these lines was pretty sensible, as it does not divide the Hispanic community in Fresno and allows for the creation of a Hispanic-majority district here.
Linda Halderman should be safe here.
AD-29
Obama 56.2 %, McCain 43.8 %
Brown 51.5 %, Whitman 48.5 %
White 21 %, Hispanic 65 %, Asian 8 %, Black 5 %
WhiteVAP 25 %, HispanicVAP 60 %, AsianVAP 8 %, BlackVAP 5 %
Henry Perea (D) 75%, Linda Halderman (R) 14%, David Valadao (R) 11%, Kristin Olsen (R) 0%, Wesley Chesbro (D) 0%
Jim Costa (D) 51%, Devin Nunes (R) 33%, Jeff Denham (R) 15%, Dennis A. Cardoza (D) 1%, Mike Thompson (D) 0%
Then you've got the rest of Fresno County, where Hispanics make up a strong majority of residents and adults, but turnout (and citizenship rates) are so low that this district isn't even safe for Democrats. Yet, Brown won it in 2010 and he did not generally do well in this part of the state, so I'll call it likely D, especially for incumbent Perea.
AD-30
Obama 70.6 %, McCain 29.4 %
Brown 64.4 %, Whitman 35.6 %
White 30 %, Hispanic 59 %, Asian 6 %, Black 2 %
WhiteVAP 36 %, HispanicVAP 52 %, AsianVAP 7 %, BlackVAP 3 %
Luis Alejo (D) 63%, Bill Monning (D) 37%, Wesley Chesbro (D) 0%, Wesley Chesbro (D) 0%, Wesley Chesbro (D) 0%
Sam Farr (D) 100%, Mike Thompson (D) 0%, Mike Thompson (D) 0%, Mike Thompson (D) 0%, Mike Thompson (D) 0%
Although probably not by CVAP, this is a majority-Hispanic VAP seat (it wasn't before I made the changes). Safe for Alejo.
AD-31
Obama 50.2 %, McCain 49.8 %
Brown 45 %, Whitman 55 %
White 58 %, Hispanic 34 %, Asian 4 %, Black 2 %
WhiteVAP 63 %, HispanicVAP 29 %, AsianVAP 4 %, BlackVAP 2 %
Katcho Achadjian (R) 94%, Das Williams (D) 5%, Luis Alejo (D) 1%, Wesley Chesbro (D) 0%, Wesley Chesbro (D) 0%
Lois Capps (D) 49%, Kevin McCarthy (R) 33%, Elton Gallegly (R) 17%, Sam Farr (D) 1%, Mike Thompson (D) 0%
This is pretty much Achadjian's old district (just adds 5,000 people in Monterey County), so I don't see why he wouldn't win it. Likely R in an open seat race.
AD-32
Obama 65.9 %, McCain 34.1 %
Brown 56.7 %, Whitman 43.3 %
White 52 %, Hispanic 40 %, Asian 4 %, Black 1 %
WhiteVAP 57 %, HispanicVAP 34 %, AsianVAP 5 %, BlackVAP 1 %
Das Williams (D) 70%, Jeff Gorell (R) 22%, Katcho Achadjian (R) 6%, Julia Brownley (D) 1%, Cameron Smyth (R) 0%
Lois Capps (D) 52%, Elton Gallegly (R) 48%, Mike Thompson (D) 0%, Mike Thompson (D) 0%, Mike Thompson (D) 0%
This Santa-Barbara based seat is safe for Das Williams.
AD-33
Obama 55.8 %, McCain 44.2 %
Brown 47.1 %, Whitman 52.9 %
White 45 %, Hispanic 43 %, Asian 8 %, Black 2 %
WhiteVAP 49 %, HispanicVAP 39 %, AsianVAP 8 %, BlackVAP 2 %
Jeff Gorell (R) 52%, Julia Brownley (D) 27%, Das Williams (D) 21%, Wesley Chesbro (D) 0%, Wesley Chesbro (D) 0%
Elton Gallegly (R) 56%, Lois Capps (D) 44%, Mike Thompson (D) 0%, Mike Thompson (D) 0%, Mike Thompson (D) 0%
McCain did really much worse than Meg Whitman here. I'm not sure which of the two results is the norm for this area, but the Dem base here is Oxnard-- everything else is pretty Republican. Republicans easily won districts in this area that are 51-52% Obama, but this is a bit different. Still, Gorell has the edge here.
Likely R.
AD-34
Obama 42.6 %, McCain 57.4 %
Brown 40.7 %, Whitman 59.3 %
White 38 %, Hispanic 49 %, Asian 4 %, Black 6 %
WhiteVAP 44 %, HispanicVAP 43 %, AsianVAP 4 %, BlackVAP 6 %
Shannon Grove (R) 81%, David Valadao (R) 19%, Wesley Chesbro (D) 0%, Wesley Chesbro (D) 0%, Wesley Chesbro (D) 0%
Kevin McCarthy (R) 78%, Jim Costa (D) 22%, Mike Thompson (D) 0%, Mike Thompson (D) 0%, Mike Thompson (D) 0%
Let's jump away from the Oxnard area to a different planet: Bakersfield. One of the most Republican cities in the country, it will easily elect a Republican assemblymember in Shannon Grove. The current map draws the Hispanic communities of Bakersfield out of the district and moves all the way around the city to another county to create a VRA seat. I don't think that's necessary for two reasons:
1) it doesn't make a partisan difference as the Hispanic areas there are quite Republican, even a 60% Hispanic+ seat would easily vote for a GOPer, thus the minority candidate of choice wouldn't be elected anyway if you assume that it's a D, if you assume that it's an R than the current iteration does that perfectly well.
2) The Gingles criteria applies to compactness of the minority group, not just the district's. The Bakersfield and Tulare Hispanics are separate communities, and neither of them is big enough to sustain a VRA seat, so you don't really need to draw one.
And from a CoI perspective this is much better.
AD-35
Obama 42.5 %, McCain 57.5 %
Brown 40 %, Whitman 60 %
White 34 %, Hispanic 57 %, Asian 3 %, Black 3 %
WhiteVAP 39 %, HispanicVAP 51 %, AsianVAP 4 %, BlackVAP 4 %
Connie Conway (R) 55%, David Valadao (R) 40%, Henry Perea (D) 5%, Wesley Chesbro (D) 0%, Wesley Chesbro (D) 0%
Devin Nunes (R) 67%, Jim Costa (D) 33%, Mike Thompson (D) 0%, Mike Thompson (D) 0%, Mike Thompson (D) 0%
I'm not sure who'd run here as Valadao's running for Congress and Conway is from Bakersfield. Fun primary. BTW, here you can see well what I was talking about in the last district's writeup: The district is 57% Hispanic, 51% Hispanic VAP, but it's a staggering R+12 district. Even if you made it 65% Hispanic or more that wouldn't change a thing, as turnout in Hispanic areas is literally 10% (!) of adults. Assuming Whites here vote 60% McCain and Hispanics 65% Obama, you would need 80% Hispanics to even have a tied Presidential election in a D wave year. For a Brown district you would literally need a 95% Hispanic district.
Thus, I'm not much concerned about the VRA here as even a nominally VRA district (even by Citizen Voting age Population) would still be dominated utterly by Whites here.
AD-36
Obama 44.2 %, McCain 55.8 %
Brown 41.8 %, Whitman 58.2 %
White 41 %, Hispanic 43 %, Asian 3 %, Black 8 %
WhiteVAP 47 %, HispanicVAP 38 %, AsianVAP 4 %, BlackVAP 8 %
Steve Knight (R) 41%, Connie Conway (R) 39%, Tim Donnelly (R) 17%, David Valadao (R) 3%, Shannon Grove (R) 0%
Howard P. McKeon (R) 51%, Devin Nunes (R) 24%, Jerry Lewis (R) 24%, David Dreier (R) 1%, Mike Thompson (D) 0%
Quite incredibly for a district that's so compact and so geographically huge, there's no incumbent Assemblyman in this territory. Knight is from Palmdale (LA County), Conway from Bakersfield, Donnelly from Southern CA.
Whoever wins the primary for the GOP here is the next Assemblyman.
AD-37
Obama 40.7 %, McCain 59.3 %
Brown 39.4 %, Whitman 60.6 %
White 39 %, Hispanic 49 %, Asian 4 %, Black 5 %
WhiteVAP 44 %, HispanicVAP 44 %, AsianVAP 4 %, BlackVAP 6 %
Shannon Grove (R) 38%, David Valadao (R) 33%, Steve Knight (R) 13%, Connie Conway (R) 9%, Jeff Gorell (R) 7%
Kevin McCarthy (R) 49%, Jim Costa (D) 34%, Howard P. McKeon (R) 17%, Mike Thompson (D) 0%, Mike Thompson (D) 0%
Grove already represents the Bakersfield-proper seat, Conway lives close to this seat, but represents basically nothing of it, the others are far away from this district, so there'd be another new GOP assemblyman from this district, that consists of all of Kern that is not Bakersfield, as well as the northern, quite conservative parts of LA County.
I won't dive into LA and OC Counties right now-- that's for the last post.
Instead, onto Southern California-- San Bernadino metro, San Diego metro and the rural Southeast.
AD-59
Obama 44.6 %, McCain 55.4 %
Brown 41.8 %, Whitman 58.2 %
White 54 %, Hispanic 33 %, Asian 6 %, Black 5 %
WhiteVAP 59 %, HispanicVAP 28 %, AsianVAP 6 %, BlackVAP 5 %
Tim Donnelly (R) 36%, Mike Morrell (R) 28%, Paul Cook (R) 25%, Wilmer Carter (D) 5%, Steve Knight (R) 4%
Jerry Lewis (R) 92%, Joe Baca (D) 5%, Howard P. McKeon (R) 2%, David Dreier (R) 1%, Mike Thompson (D) 0%
In this district there is one resident Assemblyman: Col. Paul Cook. Yet, his current district is mostly made up of Riverside County territory. Gotta love the current map.
Cook could run here, if he could win the primary with just 25% overlap I don't know. The other Assemblymembers who represent part of the district don't live here.
Safe R in any case.
AD-60
Obama 68.9 %, McCain 31.1 %
Brown 67.6 %, Whitman 32.4 %
White 16 %, Hispanic 66 %, Asian 4 %, Black 12 %
WhiteVAP 20 %, HispanicVAP 61 %, AsianVAP 4 %, BlackVAP 13 %
Wilmer Carter (D) 73%, Mike Morrell (R) 21%, Tim Donnelly (R) 6%, Wesley Chesbro (D) 0%, Wesley Chesbro (D) 0%
Joe Baca (D) 83%, Jerry Lewis (R) 17%, Mike Thompson (D) 0%, Mike Thompson (D) 0%, Mike Thompson (D) 0%
Proving the complete ineffectivity of following the VRA in California once again, this is a solidly Hispanic Assembly district that reliably elects an African-American assemblywoman in Wilmer Carter.
AD-61
Obama 56.4 %, McCain 43.6 %
Brown 51.5 %, Whitman 48.5 %
White 30 %, Hispanic 52 %, Asian 8 %, Black 8 %
WhiteVAP 34 %, HispanicVAP 47 %, AsianVAP 9 %, BlackVAP 8 %
Mike Morrell (R) 58%, Wilmer Carter (D) 29%, Norma Torres (D) 13%, Wesley Chesbro (D) 0%, Wesley Chesbro (D) 0%
David Dreier (R) 52%, Joe Baca (D) 48%, Mike Thompson (D) 0%, Mike Thompson (D) 0%, Mike Thompson (D) 0%
Morrell's seat gets moved four points to the left.
Toss-Up.
AD-62
Obama 59.4 %, McCain 40.6 %
Brown 55 %, Whitman 45 %
White 21 %, Hispanic 63 %, Asian 10 %, Black 5 %
WhiteVAP 24 %, HispanicVAP 58 %, AsianVAP 11 %, BlackVAP 5 %
Norma Torres (D) 70%, Jeff Miller (R) 11%, Curt Hagman (R) 11%, Kevin Jeffries (R) 9%, Wesley Chesbro (D) 0%
Gary G. Miller (R) 28%, Joe Baca (D) 23%, Grace F. Napolitano (D) 21%, Ken Calvert (R) 20%, David Dreier (R) 9%
Norma Torres should be fine in this Hispanic seat. It's not super-safe, but Brown won it by 10.
--At this point we enter Orange County, but we'll leave the districts there for the last part---
AD-69
Obama 43 %, McCain 57 %
Brown 32.8 %, Whitman 67.2 %
White 59 %, Hispanic 27 %, Asian 8 %, Black 3 %
WhiteVAP 63 %, HispanicVAP 24 %, AsianVAP 8 %, BlackVAP 3 %
Jeff Miller (R) 38%, Kevin Jeffries (R) 34%, Brian Nestande (R) 15%, Don Wagner (R) 7%, Paul Cook (R) 4%
Darrell E. Issa (R) 38%, Gary G. Miller (R) 27%, Ken Calvert (R) 17%, Mary Bono Mack (R) 10%, John Campbell (R) 8%
Well, you have to have one district that's half in Orange County and half somewhere else-- I thought this is a good place to cross the border CoI-wise.
Interestingly enough, not only does none of the incumbents representing parts of the district live here, they're also all not from Orange County.
Jeffries is from LA County, Miller from Corona and Estande from Palm Desert. I figure it's good to give a huge swath of Orange County representation that either is from OC or at least from nearby.
AD-70
Obama 54 %, McCain 46 %
Brown 49.3 %, Whitman 50.7 %
White 33 %, Hispanic 52 %, Asian 7 %, Black 5 %
WhiteVAP 38 %, HispanicVAP 47 %, AsianVAP 7 %, BlackVAP 6 %
Jeff Miller (R) 41%, Kevin Jeffries (R) 35%, Brian Nestande (R) 24%, Mike Morrell (R) 1%, Wesley Chesbro (D) 0%
Ken Calvert (R) 100%, Mike Thompson (D) 0%, Mike Thompson (D) 0%, Mike Thompson (D) 0%, Mike Thompson (D) 0%
Jeff Miller lives here and would run here. He isn't used to running in swing districts though, his current district being almost 55% McCain.
I would say this is a Lean R district, featuring an R incumbent in an EVEN seat.
AD-71
Obama 58.1 %, McCain 41.9 %
Brown 52.7 %, Whitman 47.3 %
White 29 %, Hispanic 49 %, Asian 7 %, Black 12 %
WhiteVAP 34 %, HispanicVAP 43 %, AsianVAP 9 %, BlackVAP 12 %
Brian Nestande (R) 50%, Paul Cook (R) 47%, Mike Morrell (R) 2%, Kevin Jeffries (R) 1%, V. Manuel Perez (D) 0%
Mary Bono Mack (R) 40%, Ken Calvert (R) 30%, Darrell E. Issa (R) 16%, Jerry Lewis (R) 14%, Mike Thompson (D) 0%
Neither Nestande nor Cook live anywhere near the district. The current map does an absolutely terrible job of providing local representation for the whole Riverside-Central Valley area.
Lean to Likely D as an open seat.
AD-72
Obama 55.5 %, McCain 44.5 %
Brown 49.4 %, Whitman 50.6 %
White 42 %, Hispanic 50 %, Asian 3 %, Black 3 %
WhiteVAP 50 %, HispanicVAP 43 %, AsianVAP 3 %, BlackVAP 3 %
V. Manuel Perez (D) 78%, Brian Nestande (R) 17%, Paul Cook (R) 6%, Wesley Chesbro (D) 0%, Wesley Chesbro (D) 0%
Mary Bono Mack (R) 85%, Jerry Lewis (R) 15%, Mike Thompson (D) 0%, Mike Thompson (D) 0%, Mike Thompson (D) 0%
Now, THIS is where Brian Nestande lives. But he doesn't represent much of the district, so I'm not sure he'd even attempt to run here. On the other hand, his chances aren't bad. This is essentially a swing district. Perez held a 60% Obama district with ease in 2010. I'd rate this a Lean D district, Toss-Up with Nestande.
AD-73
Obama 43.8 %, McCain 56.2 %
Brown 37.6 %, Whitman 62.4 %
White 52 %, Hispanic 33 %, Asian 6 %, Black 5 %
WhiteVAP 57 %, HispanicVAP 29 %, AsianVAP 6 %, BlackVAP 4 %
Paul Cook (R) 49%, Kevin Jeffries (R) 27%, Brian Nestande (R) 20%, V. Manuel Perez (D) 4%, Brian Jones (R) 1%
Mary Bono Mack (R) 56%, Darrell E. Issa (R) 31%, Jerry Lewis (R) 12%, Duncan Hunter (R) 1%, Mike Thompson (D) 0%
Now why the hell does Paul Cook represent this territory? he's from San Bernadino! Anyway, solid Republican for whoever runs here.
AD-74
Obama 51.3 %, McCain 48.7 %
Brown 46.4 %, Whitman 53.6 %
White 29 %, Hispanic 61 %, Asian 5 %, Black 3 %
WhiteVAP 33 %, HispanicVAP 56 %, AsianVAP 5 %, BlackVAP 3 %
V. Manuel Perez (D) 37%, Nathan Fletcher (R) 15%, Brian Jones (R) 14%, Ben Hueso (D) 13%, Martin Garrick (R) 13%
Bob Filner (D) 56%, Brian P. Bilbray (R) 26%, Duncan Hunter (R) 16%, Darrell E. Issa (R) 3%, Mike Thompson (D) 0%
Hispanic VRA seat, but actually Lean R. No obvious incumbent here, Perez is from Riverside.
AD-75
Obama 46.8 %, McCain 53.2 %
Brown 38.7 %, Whitman 61.3 %
White 52 %, Hispanic 36 %, Asian 6 %, Black 3 %
WhiteVAP 57 %, HispanicVAP 31 %, AsianVAP 6 %, BlackVAP 3 %
Diane Harkey (R) 45%, Martin Garrick (R) 40%, Kevin Jeffries (R) 15%, Wesley Chesbro (D) 0%, Wesley Chesbro (D) 0%
Darrell E. Issa (R) 84%, Brian P. Bilbray (R) 16%, Mike Thompson (D) 0%, Mike Thompson (D) 0%, Mike Thompson (D) 0%
Diane Harkey is from Orange County, but Martin Garrick is from Carlsbad, which is in the district. He should have no trouble holding this seat, unless he's challenged by an Oceanside Republican.
AD-76
Obama 50.8 %, McCain 49.2 %
Brown 39.8 %, Whitman 60.2 %
White 67 %, Hispanic 14 %, Asian 13 %, Black 2 %
WhiteVAP 70 %, HispanicVAP 12 %, AsianVAP 13 %, BlackVAP 2 %
Martin Garrick (R) 52%, Nathan Fletcher (R) 48%, Wesley Chesbro (D) 0%, Wesley Chesbro (D) 0%, Wesley Chesbro (D) 0%
Brian P. Bilbray (R) 80%, Duncan Hunter (R) 17%, Darrell E. Issa (R) 3%, Mike Thompson (D) 0%, Mike Thompson (D) 0%
Woah, Brown really collapsed here, didn't he? Or rather, Obama really overperformed, I have the feeling that the Gubernatorial election is more typical for this area.
Fletcher's running for mayor of San Diego, Garrick would probably represent Oceanside, so this district awaits a primary to determine his new-- Likely Republican-- Assemblyman.
AD-77
Obama 48.8 %, McCain 51.2 %
Brown 40.7 %, Whitman 59.3 %
White 59 %, Hispanic 17 %, Asian 17 %, Black 3 %
WhiteVAP 61 %, HispanicVAP 14 %, AsianVAP 18 %, BlackVAP 3 %
Brian Jones (R) 61%, Nathan Fletcher (R) 39%, Wesley Chesbro (D) 0%, Wesley Chesbro (D) 0%, Wesley Chesbro (D) 0%
Duncan Hunter (R) 66%, Brian P. Bilbray (R) 23%, Susan A. Davis (D) 12%, Mike Thompson (D) 0%, Mike Thompson (D) 0%
Finally an Assemblyman who actually represents a district surrounding the area around his home! Brian Jones lives in Santee, and should be happy with this seat.
AD-78
Obama 65.7 %, McCain 34.3 %
Brown 57 %, Whitman 43 %
White 62 %, Hispanic 21 %, Asian 8 %, Black 5 %
WhiteVAP 66 %, HispanicVAP 18 %, AsianVAP 8 %, BlackVAP 5 %
Toni Atkins (D) 85%, Ben Hueso (D) 10%, Nathan Fletcher (R) 5%, Wesley Chesbro (D) 0%, Wesley Chesbro (D) 0%
Susan A. Davis (D) 76%, Brian P. Bilbray (R) 17%, Duncan Hunter (R) 6%, Bob Filner (D) 1%, Mike Thompson (D) 0%
Toni Atkins gets her old seat back, essentially, and should be safe here. Finally, a San Diego area seat Brown did win!
AD-79
Obama 61.1 %, McCain 38.9 %
Brown 57 %, Whitman 43 %
White 18 %, Hispanic 57 %, Asian 16 %, Black 6 %
WhiteVAP 21 %, HispanicVAP 52 %, AsianVAP 18 %, BlackVAP 6 %
Ben Hueso (D) 59%, Marty Block (D) 41%, Wesley Chesbro (D) 0%, Wesley Chesbro (D) 0%, Wesley Chesbro (D) 0%
Bob Filner (D) 89%, Susan A. Davis (D) 9%, Duncan Hunter (R) 1%, Mike Thompson (D) 0%, Mike Thompson (D) 0%
Ben Hueso could decide to move the two miles (which obviously isn't nothing in a city) into this district. Otherwise someone like David Alvarez (city councilman for the district) could run.
AD-80
Obama 62.8 %, McCain 37.2 %
Brown 56.5 %, Whitman 43.5 %
White 39 %, Hispanic 38 %, Asian 9 %, Black 10 %
WhiteVAP 44 %, HispanicVAP 33 %, AsianVAP 10 %, BlackVAP 10 %
Marty Block (D) 59%, Brian Jones (R) 18%, Ben Hueso (D) 13%, Toni Atkins (D) 10%, Wesley Chesbro (D) 0%
Duncan Hunter (R) 42%, Susan A. Davis (D) 42%, Bob Filner (D) 17%, Mike Thompson (D) 0%, Mike Thompson (D) 0%
Marty Block seems to be interested in running for State Senate, so here, too, would be a new open seat.
In the last installment: LA and OC Counties.