Continuing the pattern of diaries detailing theoretical gerrymanders (partly for amusement, partly to illustrate the power of redistricting), I thought I'd take a shot at doing a proper 7-1 Minnesota map. Given that Obama won the state by 10% and most of the Republicans are heavily clustered in a circle around the Twin Cities, it seemed easy enough to create a big GOP vote sink and make the rest likely Dem. Still, one has to take into account what Democratic incumbents would want in a potential gerrymander, as well as communities of interest and overall visual aesthetics, for it to be considered realistic if Dems had complete control over drawing the new maps.
MN-01 (Dark Blue): Tim Walz (D). Given how comfortable he seems to be in his swingy district, I chose not to drastically alter it. Some minor shifting northward and eastward does improve it by a couple percent though which he would appreciate. Still heavily centered on the southern part of the state and retains his base in Mankato. Obama 52%, McCain 46% (old Obama 51%, McCain 47%). Hispanic 5%, Black 2%, Asian 2% (all slightly increased from the old district).
MN-02 (Light Blue): John Kline (R). Currently a suburban district to the south of the Twin Cities, it only needs to reach a bit more to the north to become safe D. It retains his home and territory he is familiar with, but by digging up in between Minneapolis and St. Paul, it becomes quite unwinnable for him. Obama 60%, McCain 38% (old Obama 48%, McCain 50%). Hispanic 7%, Black 6%, Asian 4% (all significantly increased from the old district).
MN-03 (Yellow): Erik Paulsen (R). Currently the light-red suburban district to the west of Minneapolis, I used a similar tactic and dragged it in closer to the city. Although he keeps his house in this district, he loses the hard red exurbs and is faced with a much more urban district that should prove to be his electoral end. Obama 58%, McCain 40% (old Obama 52%, McCain 46%). Black 6%, Asian 6%, Hispanic 4% (all up from the old district).
MN-04 (Green): Betty McCollum (D) vs. Michelle Bachmann (R) vs. Chip Cravaack (R). McCollum takes a hit for the team and her St. Paul district loses some of its urban territory, and then runs up the side of the state to grab a few more suburban towns to the east and north of St. Paul, including Bachmann's home in Stillwater, and Cravaack's home in Lindstrom. Bachmann would never run here and even if a more competitive district is created in reality, Bachmann is in serious trouble as she lives to the east of St. Paul but depends on being in a dark-red district centered to the west of Minneapolis. She also lives way too close to Cravaack and others have written about the likely faceoff between the two of them should Bachmann attempt to run for re-election to the House. In my version, this is a safe pickup though as both of their towns are drowned out by St. Paul. Obama 58%, McCain 40% (old Obama 64%, McCain 34%). Asian 9%, Black 8%, Hispanic 6% (pretty close to old numbers).
MN-05 (Purple): Keith Ellison (D). To make way for the intrusion of Kline's and Paulsen's districts, I had to scoot his further north into less familiar territory. He still retains the core of Minneapolis though and has the safest district in the delegation. Obama 63%, McCain 35% (old Obama 74%, McCain 24%). Black 15%, Asian 8%, Hispanic 7% (the first two groups significantly increased from the original).
MN-06 (Red): OPEN (R). Believe it or not, I drew a giant GOP vote dump that none of the state's four Republicans actually live in. It takes the most from Bachmann's, Kline's and Paulsen's current territory though. Making a half circle around the twin cities, it also pushes a bit further to the northwest to grab some heavily GOP rural counties. Still, I could have made this more tentacled to hit more Republican precincts but decided to try to keep it looking somewhat respectable. The overall numbers though remain absolutely brutal for Democrats and this is more Republican than any district currently existing in Minnesota. Obama 39%, McCain 59% (old Obama 45%, McCain 53%). Hispanic 3%, all others 1% (close to same as the old one).
MN-07 (Slate Blue): Collin Peterson (D). I didn't tinker with his district much. There's really not much we can do to turn this into a safe D district short of massively screwing with the Iron Range seat which would invite a labor-backed primary challenge to the conservative Peterson. He wouldn't want that, neither would I. I did adjust MN-07 just a bit to improve the overall PVI while still leaving him a district he would find quite familiar and winnable, even in bad years for us. Obama 48%, McCain 49% (old Obama 47%, McCain 50%). Hispanic 4%, Native 3% (similar to old).
MN-08 (Orange): OPEN (R). As Cravaack lives in the southern tip it's easy to draw him out. To make population, I sent a tendril into St. Cloud instead. It is swingy territory but more than balanced out by the DFL powerhouse that is Duluth. Honestly we should have never lost this district in the first place but such was 2010. With Cravaack out of the way (and the district a few points more Dem) we should pick this back up, short of another disastrous election. Obama 54%, McCain 43% (old Obama 53%, McCain 45%). Native, Black, and Hispanic all 2% (slight increases over the old).