While all of my past diaries have been about Wisconsin, given that I go to school at Cornell University in Ithaca, NY and seeing a number of Upstate NY maps I felt I should take a stab at my temporary homeland of Upstate New York.
There are many hypotheses about what will happen in regards to NY. The assumption for this map is protecting the marginal seats for both parties, with the exception of Buerkle who in this map is axed (this map is also based on Weprin, should he succeed next week, getting cut as well). I tried to remain as true to the township lines as possible, given that townships cannot be split, although for the NYC suburbs and exurbs I might have split a township.
First, the wide view:
Lets start from the West:
NY-27 Blue (Higgins): Old 54-44 Obama New: 56.3-42 Obama
Largely retains his district and in fact gets a little boost. Due to his personal popularity, Higgins should be fine and any other other Democrat should be favored. Likely D
NY-26 Chartreuse (Hochul): Old: 46-52 Obama New: 56-42.6 Obama
Hochul is one of the key beneficiaries of this map in that it switches from R+7 to D+3. It is still a bit of an earmuffs with Buffalo and Rochester to help her out, but not nearly as nasty as the current earmuffs. I would say Lean D because Hochul is not as entrenched as Higgins, but this district presents her this opportunity.
To me, I think it should be a priority to protect Hochul in that she clearly has good campaigning skills and has a great personality (it is a compliment to her in that people around DKE are saying that Kate Marshall in NV-02 is no Kathy Hochul), so I think her profile provides balance to what I feel can be a too-NYC centric party.
NY-25 Red (Slaughter) Old: 69-30 Obama New: 58.8-39.8 Obama
In order to help out Hochul, Slaughter needs to drop the Buffalo end of her earmuffs and provide a little of Rochester. However, the damage is limited by extending to the Democratic small cities of the Finger Lakes. In fact, the Obama percentage would be little different than if it were just a Monroe county district. Even if Slaughter were to retire, this should be held by a Dem. Likely D
NY-9 Orange (Reed) Old: 48-51 Obama New: 42.3-56.2 Obama
This is where NY-09 ends up and it acts as a nice WNY vote sink. Safe R
Now to Central and Northern Upstate:
NY-24 Purple (Hannah): Old: 51-48 Obama New: 47.5-50.7 Obama
By losing areas around Ithaca, Hannah receives a boost. Likely R
NY-23 Yellow (Owens): Old: 52-47 Obama New: 59.7-38.6 Obama
This is perhaps the most controversial district in the map not only because it becomes this decade's earmuffs (well with one ear bigger much bigger than the other) connecting Syracuse to the North. One of the great issues with NY redistricting is what to do with Syracuse as the fear with bringing too much of Syracuse into this district would lead to a Syracuse-area politician primarying Bill Owens and perhaps causing a backlash from the North. However, from a strictly numbers scenario, this would probably be the most Democratic district possible utilizing Syracuse and the North. So I would say that any district that is about 60 percent Obama would be Lean Dem at least.
NY-22 Lime (Hinchey): Old: 59-39 Obama New: 60-38.4 Obama
I think the combination of Ithaca, Binghamton, and Ulster County area would be too much even in a 2010 scenario, so Safe Dem
NY-21 Cyan (Tonko): Old: 58-40 Obama New: 59.1-39.1 Obama
This district receives a little boost by adding Saratoga Springs and Democratic rural areas along the Vermont border, so I would say Likely Dem.
NY-20 Pink (Gibson): Old: 51-48 Obama New: 47.6-50.6 Obama
By losing Saratoga Springs this district becomes one that Obama loses. This district might be more winnable as some of the areas in the east become more like Vermont, but until that happens it is Likely R.
Finally heading down to the Lower Hudson:
NY-19 YellowGreen (Hayworth): Old: 51-48 Obama New: 48.3-50.7 Obama
By losing West Point, areas around Poughkeepsie, and parts of Westchester County, this district also shifts to a McCain district. So Likely R
NY-18 Yellow (Lowey): Old: 62-38 Obama New: 64-35.1 Obama
By taking in Newburgh and more Westchester, it gains a few points and remains at Safe D.
NY-17 Dark Slate Blue (Engel): Old: 72-28 New: 66.3-33.1 Obama
This district loses a few point to make it neater, but nevertheless the substantial chunk of the Bronx make this district Safe D.
So overall, with the exception of Buekle, this district helps out the marginal seats.