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Magellan hasn't been in the field in this district prior to this poll as far as I know. Please correct me if I'm wrong.

Anyway, with one week to go until the election,here is the poll:

Magellan Strategies BR today released the survey results of an automated survey of 2,055 likely voters in New York’s 9th Congressional District. The survey was conducted September 1st, 2011 and has a margin of error of 2.16%. The survey finds Republican Bob Turner leading Democrat David Weprin by 4 points (Turner 44.6%/Weprin 40.4%/Hoeppner 3.2%/undecided 11.8%). Ballot intensity benefits Turner with 35.8% of the respondents definitely voting for Turner while only 28.3% of respondents definitely voting for Weprin.

Both candidates have comparable name recognition (Turner 89% name recognition/Weprin 88% name recognition). However, Turner’s image is 37% favorable to 23.8% unfavorable, while Weprin’s image is 29.8% favorable to 34.5% unfavorable. Turner leads Weprin despite the fact that Democrats have almost a 5 point lead on the generic ballot. However, President Obama’s job approval suffers (36% approve/52% disapprove/13% no opinion).

Overall, voters believe things in the country are going in the wrong track (24% right direction/76% wrong track). Driving the mood is the economy and jobs, which is by far the most important issue.

Turner has been running hard on the issue of Israel, even though Weprin is Jewish. He's also been delivering a staunchly anti-Obama message. Weprin has largely staked his candidacy on Social Security and Medicare defense and attacking his opponent as a Tea Partier. National Republican committees have jumped into the race and so has OFA.

I've been watching this race closely and I am not surprised this race is close. Anthony Weiner's district is more conservative than most NYC districts. He kept winning due to his rather stellar constituent service which most people agree were top notch. They didn't mind him being a liberal firebrand because he took good care of the district.

As caveat, there was a large sample size, but the poll was only in the field for one day. Polling experts should weigh in on that because I don't know what to make of it.

I do know that President Obama's speech could amp up Democratic intensity in the district enough to pull Weprin over the top. Despite this poll, I still think Weprin should be considered the favorite. There are a lot of undecideds and Turner still isn't up over 50.

But the cautionary word for Democrats is that this race shouldn't be this close and we damn sure shouldn't be behind.

1:25 PM PT: I should have also mentioned that this district is a likely target for elimination when Albany finishes up with redistricting. New York will lose two seats and one of them will be in the City while the other is Upstate.

Originally posted to Triple-B in the Building on Tue Sep 06, 2011 at 01:15 PM PDT.

Also republished by New York State.

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Comment Preferences

  •  How reliable is Magellan? I seem to recall there (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    BachFan, brooklynbadboy, itskevin

    being a lot of outliers coming from that outfit.

    I could be wrong, though.

    "Nothing in all the world is more dangerous than sincere ignorance and conscientious stupidity." --M. L. King "You can't fix stupid" --Ron White

    by zenbassoon on Tue Sep 06, 2011 at 01:27:52 PM PDT

  •  It's a GOP poll (5+ / 0-)

    One thing to note - the Dem candidate is weak mainly because the seat will be history after next year and no one who wants a future wants to waste his time.

    Losing it would hurt, but it would be a temporary blow.

    One reason for leaking this poll might be to get Dems to spend a lot of money in an expensive market that would better go elsewhere.

  •  It is a GOP poll (6+ / 0-)

    Turner's own internal recently showed the race tied at 42, and a DCCC poll had Weprin by 8% or so. But I think the race is going to be close. Maybe 52-48 for the Dems.

  •  Notice that (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    BachFan, brooklynbadboy, itskevin

    this poll was in the field for only 1 day and had 2,055 respondents.  That's not ideal AT all.

    How The Doctor does redistricting: 'I'm going to need a SWAT team ready to mobilize, street-level maps covering all of Florida, a pot of coffee, twelve jammie dodgers and a fez.'

    by KingofSpades on Tue Sep 06, 2011 at 01:35:36 PM PDT

    •  I noted that in the post. Can you explain (0+ / 0-)

      briefly how that affects accuracy?

      •  A 1-day sample can be very skewed. (4+ / 0-)

        Because it depends on who's home that day.  You get pretty different results on weekends vs. weekdays, for example.  If you call in the daytime, you're missing out on anyone and everyone who has a regular job and isn't home.  This poll was taken on Thursday before Labor Day.  Unless they did all nighttime calls, they missed everyone in the working class who has a job.

        Even then, people's daily schedules differ.  Someone may be home on Tuesday evening, but already have dinner plans outside for Wednesday.  So if you call on Wednesday, you won't reach them.  So most polls try to call over a 3-day span to avoid a bad sample, and get as representative of a sample as possible of the district.

        The best should probably incorporate at least one weekday and one weekend day, like a Sunday-Monday-Tuesday poll.  Since a lot of people like to go out on Friday/Saturday, a Thursday-Friday-Saturday poll might still miss out on a lot of people.

      •  No repeat calling (5+ / 0-)

        means that it's skewed toward people who pick up their phones consistently. That can be a problem even for polls taken over a longer time. The better practice is to try repeatedly to reach people on the list. Did they release any internals on age distribution, race, etc.?

        Michael Weissman UID 197542

        by docmidwest on Tue Sep 06, 2011 at 01:54:12 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  A loss is entirely possible. (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    BachFan, brooklynbadboy, charliehall2

    Not likely in my mind, but certainly possible. And David, whatever his merits or lack thereof, is a creature of the Democratic machine. Most people, at least in my experience, tend to vote against that machine, provided they're aware of the damage it's done to the City and the small-D democratic process itself.

    Fuck me, it's a leprechaun.

    by MBNYC on Tue Sep 06, 2011 at 01:37:08 PM PDT

  •  So will DailyKos... (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    brooklynbadboy, wdrath, Eric Nelson

    have PPP poll this race?

    And, really, Israel?  That's more important to NY-09 than Social Security and Medicare??  What about Weprin's support of gay marriage?  Or is that actually hurting him more than helping?

    The first New York politician imperiled by voting for same-sex marriage isn’t an upstate Republican senator – it’s a Democratic Assemblyman from New York City scrambling to hold his support in a special election.

    Insiders say Assemblyman David Weprin, running in the special election for Anthony Weiner’s congressional seat, is facing a revolt among Orthodox Jews – though he himself is an Orthodox Jew – because he strongly defended same-sex marriage during an Albany debate.

    ....

    Democratic and Republican insiders say that speech, more than former Mayor Ed Koch’s efforts to tie Weprin to President Barack Obama on Israel, has put the Orthodox vote in play – providing a huge boon to his Irish Catholic Republican opponent, Bob Turner.

    ....

    “What he said in the Assembly has been played over-and-over on YouTube,” said one well-connected neutral observer of the race. “People were really offended that he said he was an Orthodox who was supporting gay marriage.”

    During the campaign, some rabbis have refused to meet with Weprin, while the newspaper Hamodia reported that others have refused to be photographed with the assemblyman. Editorial writers for Jewish newspapers and well-read blogs have blasted him.

    So these anti-gay bigots are actually going to hand the seat over to a Republican just because they can't stand the thought of gay guys being happy?

    To the gay community in New York: here's your chance to make a difference and show that homophobia will not work as an electoral strategy.  Because if Turner wins, guess how many more politicians are suddenly going to turn to the anti-gay route to get votes from stupid bigots, and how many spineless ones suddenly get very quiet about their support of gay marriage?

  •  Does the 9/11 anniversary affect (0+ / 0-)

    this race at all? Does it mean campaigning essentially stops like this Friday?

  •  brooklynbadboy, in L.A.'s ultra Orthodox (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    charliehall2

    Jewish community, I have witnessed first hand the lies and the right-wing talking points being repeated ad nauseum, since Shrub was prez!  This community I've got personal experience with voted for that POS TWICE.  

    They are currently embracing the Evangelical position that Obama is the anti-Christ and wants to send Israel straight to hell.  No amount of FACTS, like his attempts to stop the U.N. from voting on Palestinian statehood or his administration's sale of weapons to Israel or his obvious support for the state of Israel itself holds any water with them.  As far as they're ALL concerned, he's a Muslim in disguise just waiting to destroy Israel and America.

    I've been shocked and outraged by this to the point that one of my best friends, who's a prominent member of this community, and I rarely speak and NEVER about politics.  She's a Glenn Beck avid listener and I'm sure she tunes into Druggie Rush, as well.  There is no difference between this community and a well established Republican enclave.

    NY-9 is mostly Orthodox Jews, isn't it?  Guess it's no surprise that a Democrat who could give Obama support in Congress is not all that attractive and they'd actually PREFER a Catholic Republican to an Orthodox Jewish Democrat!  Damn.

    CHUMPS.  Don't realize that Evangelicals want the anti-Christ to start Armegeddon so that Jews and Arabs blow each other to Kingdom Come!  Literally!  LOL!  Pathetic.

    Best. President. Ever.

    by Little Lulu on Tue Sep 06, 2011 at 05:09:57 PM PDT

    •  good analysis -- here are some more points, though (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Little Lulu

      the district isn't even majority Jewish. But it probably has more Orthodox Jews than any in America and they fall into two groups:

      Charedi Jews who will never vote for anyone who supports same sex marriage.

      Religious Zionists who are at war with Obama because he won't support more settlement building or free Jonathan Pollard.

      The Charedim also aren't happy with the administration position on Israel and the Religious Zionists aren't in favor of same sex marriage.

    •  One more issue (0+ / 0-)

      is that much of the Orthodox leadership in America is in Brooklyn. They are as impressed with Shabat observant politicians like Weprin as the Catholic bishops were with John F. Kennedy. They have never liked Joe Lieberman.

      The reason is that neither Lieberman or Weprin is part of the Rabbinic Establishment. Upon his election to the Senate, the leading Orthodox Jew in America was not any rabbi but a lawyer from Connecticut who didn't even attend a yeshiva! Weprin is even worse, as he is from a non-observant political family (his father was Speaker of the New York State Assembly).

  •  Well Gov. Cuomo insists it's not a referendum on (0+ / 0-)

    the President, so there is that
     Gov. Cuomo is rejecting talk that the NY-9 race between Democrat David Weprin and Republican Bob Turner is actually a referendum on President Obama.

    “There are two names on the ballot and neither is Obama,” Cuomo said, according to our Glenn Blain. “So I think it is going to be a referendum on Weprin and Turner -- and I think Weprin wins that referendum.”
    Gov. Cuomo is optimistic:
    “The polls say that it’s a tough race,” Cuomo said. “I believe at the end of the day, David Weprin is going to win and as they say, there is only one poll that counts -- that’s Election Day. I believe he is going to win.”

    Prolly Ed Koch's endorsment has more to do with it. RW link
    ...Anyway, today’s Koch endorsement of Republican candidate for Congress Bob Turner over Democratic candidate David Weprin is important in no small part because the race for Anthony Weiner’s vacant seat takes place in the largest Jewish district in the country

    apologies for the "conservative' link

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