Magellan hasn't been in the field in this district prior to this poll as far as I know. Please correct me if I'm wrong.
Anyway, with one week to go until the election,here is the poll:
Magellan Strategies BR today released the survey results of an automated survey of 2,055 likely voters in New York’s 9th Congressional District. The survey was conducted September 1st, 2011 and has a margin of error of 2.16%. The survey finds Republican Bob Turner leading Democrat David Weprin by 4 points (Turner 44.6%/Weprin 40.4%/Hoeppner 3.2%/undecided 11.8%). Ballot intensity benefits Turner with 35.8% of the respondents definitely voting for Turner while only 28.3% of respondents definitely voting for Weprin.
Both candidates have comparable name recognition (Turner 89% name recognition/Weprin 88% name recognition). However, Turner’s image is 37% favorable to 23.8% unfavorable, while Weprin’s image is 29.8% favorable to 34.5% unfavorable. Turner leads Weprin despite the fact that Democrats have almost a 5 point lead on the generic ballot. However, President Obama’s job approval suffers (36% approve/52% disapprove/13% no opinion).
Overall, voters believe things in the country are going in the wrong track (24% right direction/76% wrong track). Driving the mood is the economy and jobs, which is by far the most important issue.
Turner has been running hard on the issue of Israel, even though Weprin is Jewish. He's also been delivering a staunchly anti-Obama message. Weprin has largely staked his candidacy on Social Security and Medicare defense and attacking his opponent as a Tea Partier. National Republican committees have jumped into the race and so has OFA.
I've been watching this race closely and I am not surprised this race is close. Anthony Weiner's district is more conservative than most NYC districts. He kept winning due to his rather stellar constituent service which most people agree were top notch. They didn't mind him being a liberal firebrand because he took good care of the district.
As caveat, there was a large sample size, but the poll was only in the field for one day. Polling experts should weigh in on that because I don't know what to make of it.
I do know that President Obama's speech could amp up Democratic intensity in the district enough to pull Weprin over the top. Despite this poll, I still think Weprin should be considered the favorite. There are a lot of undecideds and Turner still isn't up over 50.
But the cautionary word for Democrats is that this race shouldn't be this close and we damn sure shouldn't be behind.
1:25 PM PT: I should have also mentioned that this district is a likely target for elimination when Albany finishes up with redistricting. New York will lose two seats and one of them will be in the City while the other is Upstate.