The state of Virginia was an absolute bloodbath for Democrats in 2010. Tom Perriello, a relatively liberal Democrat sitting in a R+5 district that voted for McCain, narrowly went down, as did moderate Democrats Glenn Nye and Rick Boucher. Whereas Democrats had a 6-5 advantage in Virginia's congressional delegation in the 111th Congress, that dropped to a 8-3 disadvantage in the 112th. This in a state that Obama won.
Democrats will not have the chance to draw a map of their liking, because they can't get such a map passed in the Republican-held House of Delegates or signed by Governor Bob McDonnell (R). However, if Democrats could draw the map, it would be theoretically possible to not only replace all three losses from 2010, but to replace the two moderates who lost with progressives.
More below the fold.
Not all numbers on this map are accurate. One voting district in Norfolk has an error in the population which affects the 1st district, but I wasn't quite sure how to deal with that. It shouldn't make a difference either way. Also, some ugly appendages on the map have been made to lower population deviation, when in real life lawmakers could just split precincts. Lastly, some precincts in Loudoun County are missing votes, which might lower the Dem total in VA-08 by a notch, but it shouldn't make a big deal either way.
On to the maps!
First, the state:
VA-01
Incumbent: Rob Wittman (R-Montross)
Old Vote: Obama 48 McCain 51
New Vote: Obama 44 McCain 56
Average: Dem 42 Rep 58
Description: This district is already a gerrymander which runs from NoVA to the Northern Neck. It swaps some areas in NoVA and backs out of Newport News to become much redder. Safe for Wittman.
VA-02
Incumbent: Scott Rigell (R-Virginia Beach), Randy Forbes (R-Chesapeake)
Old Vote: Obama 51 McCain 49
New Vote: Obama 45 McCain 55
Average: Dem 44 Rep 56
Description: I'm not sure where in Virginia Beach Rigell lives or where in Chesapeake Forbes lives, but this district contains all but a few heavily black precincts of both, and both Rigell and Forbes would likely run here. Forbes has been around longer but Rigell retains more of his district. Many of the black voters are gerrymandered out so it's Likely R in the general, but if the Democrats had to contest this seat, they could put forth someone like State Sen. Mamie Locke or Swingnut Johnny Longtorso.
VA-03
Incumbent: Bobby Scott (D-Newport News)
Old Vote: Obama 76 McCain 24
New Vote: Obama 71 McCain 29
Average: Dem 65 Rep 35
Description: This district is pretty gerrymandered and drops some of the old VA-03 and adds some new territory. Still, it's 51% black and 40% white among the 18+ crowd, and Scott should be happy with it. Obviously, it's safe for Democrats in the general.
VA-04
Incumbent: Bob Goodlatte (R-Roanoke)
Old Vote: Obama 50 McCain 49
New Vote: Obama 56 McCain 44
Average: Dem 53 Rep 47
Description: Goodlatte lives here but probably wants to run in the 6th. Similarly, Hurt doesn't live here but might take a stab here instead of being sure to lose in the primary elsewhere (a la Tim Johnson in Illinois). However, Hurt might have trouble in a district that contains Petersburg, Charlottesville, the Democratic part of Lynchburg, Roanoke, and black areas of Southside Virginia. This district is designed for a Tom Perriello comeback and contains his home in Albemarle County. If Perriello could get away with a fairly liberal voting record in an R+5 district and only lose 51-47 in a Republican wave year, imagine what he could get away with in this much bluer district.
VA-05
Incumbent: Eric Cantor (R-Richmond)
Old Vote: Obama 48 McCain 51
New Vote: Obama 60 McCain 40
Average: Dem 54 Rep 46
Description: Unpacking VA-03 and screwing over Randy Forbes allows for the creation of this new Richmond-based seat. Eric Cantor represents some of this territory but there's no way he'd win this seat, so this seat probably goes to whichever Democrat wins the primary.
VA-06
Incumbent: Robert Hurt (R-Chatham), Morgan Griffith (R-Salem)
Old Vote: Obama 42 McCain 57
New Vote: Obama 37 McCain 63
Average: Dem 37 Rep 63
Description: Bob Hurt has a fun decision: does he run in the 4th and probably get crushed in the general by Perriello, or does he run in the 6th and probably get crushed in the primary by Goodlatte? Pick your poison, Bob. If by some miracle he wins the primary here, though, he's safe.
VA-07
Incumbent: OPEN
Old Vote: Obama 46 McCain 53
New Vote: Obama 39 McCain 61
Average: Dem 37 McCain 63
Description: This is probably where Eric Cantor runs. In the Republican wave year of 2010 he was held to below 60% by a Some Dude. But in this district, he's safe, no questions asked.
VA-08
Incumbent: Jim Moran (D-Arlington)
Old Vote: Obama 69 McCain 30
New Vote: Obama 61 McCain 39
Average: Dem 59 Rep 41
Description: Inspired by the State Senate's Arlington-to-Loudoun gerrymander, this district is the same thing but on a congressional scale. Due to missing votes in Loudoun this district might be a nudge bluer than the numbers suggest. Moran might lose in the primary because he has so many new voters to deal with, but this is a fantasy map and I don't really like him anyway, so oh well. :) Safe D in the general, though.
VA-09
Incumbent: OPEN
Old Vote: Obama 40 McCain 59
New Vote: Obama 39 McCain 61
Average: Dem 43 Rep 57
Description: Griffith lives in the 6th under this map, but he does in real life as well and that never stopped him from running in the 9th. So he's certain to run here, and he'll probably win with few problems unless the Congressman he defeated in 2010, Rick Boucher, wants a rematch.
VA-10
Incumbent: OPEN
Old Vote: Obama 53 McCain 46
New Vote: Obama 58 McCain 42
Average: Dem 52 Rep 48
Description: No incumbent lives here, but Frank Wolf could try to run here. However, this is significantly bluer than his older district and most of the territory is new to him, so he might try the 8th/11th or face against Eric Cantor in the 7th. Either way, this should be a fairly easy pickup for a liberal Democrat. As a side note, this district is minority-majority (49% white) by total population and 52% white by VAP.
VA-11
Incumbent: Frank Wolf (R-Vienna), Gerry Connolly (D-Mantua)
Old Vote: Obama 57 McCain 42
New Vote: Obama 61 McCain 39
Average: Obama 58 McCain 42
Description: A near-miss for a minority-majority district, it's 52% white total and 55% white 18+. This is another option for Frank Wolf, but like with the 8th and 10th districts, he faces the daunting prospect of lots of new territory and a much bluer electorate. Connolly would probably beat him here. So Frank Wolf's options are: probably lose to Moran, probably lose to Cantor, probably lose to Connolly, probably lose to Moran, run statewide...or just hang it up. He's getting up there in the years anyway. Regardless, this is the sixth district besides VA-03, VA-04, VA-05, VA-08, and VA-10 that should easily be able to elect and re-elect a liberal Democrat.