The peak of hurricane season is quickly approaching (it's Saturday) and the current and recent batch of storms are living up to climatology. There are three systems everyone is keeping an eye on right now -- Hurricane Katia, Tropical Storm Maria, and a promising system in the Bay of Campeche that could become a Tropical Depression soon.
Jump the fold for info on each.
Hurricane Katia
Ten day old Hurricane Katia is churning its way across the Atlantic Ocean, making a fairly lucky recurve between the US East Coast and the island of Bermuda. Last week, models showed Katia making this recurve, but much closer to the US. Thankfully Nature disagreed and the storm will move well to the east of the areas hard hit by Hurricane Irene a few weeks ago.
The models are unanimous that the hurricane will recurve out to sea and pose a threat to shipping lanes and air routes, so Katia should be nothing more than a serious wave/rip current concern for the East Coast. That's nothing to take lightly, though. The father of a 4-year-old-boywas killed on Sunday trying to save his son after getting caught in rip currents generated by Katia's waves. If they tell you not to go in the water, please don't go in the water.
Here's the NHC track as of 11 AM EDT. Click to enlarge.
Tropical Storm Maria
A vigorous tropical wave that came off Africa formed into a Tropical Depression last night, and was upgraded to Tropical Storm Maria this morning. It's going to move west-northwest towards the Antilles as the week goes on, and should be north of Puerto Rico by Sunday. Long-term models keep hinting that Maria will follow Katia in recurving out to open sea, but it's too far out right now to accurately tell whether or not Maria will pose a serious threat to the United States. As always, it's worth keeping a close eye on as the week continues.
The storm is expected to battle wind shear for the next 5 days, so its only forecast to reach strong tropical storm strength (~65 MPH) as it nears the islands. Things can change, though, so stay tuned.
Here's the NHC track as of 11 AM EDT. Click to enlarge.
Invest 96L -- Disturbance in the Bay of Campeche
There is an area of showers and thunderstorms located off the coast of Mexico in the far southern part of the Gulf of Mexico, which is also known as the Bay of Campeche. It's not moving at all right now, and there aren't any big weather systems down the line to steer this thing one way or the other (like Lee), so models are all over the map as to where this system could head if it develops at all. Intensity forecasts for this system, if it develops, are also quite variant on the track, so they're also moot.
Anyone in Mexico or the southeastern United States needs to watch this system for development. The NHC says an Air Force Recon plane is heading to the area this afternoon to investigate its organization and to determine if it's a tropical depression.
Since the models are all over the map (literally), I'll refrain from posting it since there's really no rhyme or rhythm to the mess. Here's Invest 96L on satellite, from Wunderground.
Edit: As several commenters pointed out, the father died in the rip current while trying to save his son. I misunderstood the article and wrote that the child died. The child survived, the father died. Sorry for the mistake.
2:50 PM PT: Invest 96L is now Tropical Storm Nate. It's expected to turn into a hurricane on Friday and impact Mexico well south of Texas early next week.