(Chart created by Meteor Blades,
updated by Laura Clawson)
The Department of Labor is
reporting 414,000 initial claims for unemployment this week. This represents:
...an increase of 2,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 412,000. The 4-week moving average was 414,750, an increase of 3,750 from the previous week's revised average of 411,000.
Last week, some reports had suggested that Hurricane Irene might affect this week's claims, but the Department of Labor did not report such an effect. Delays associated with Labor Day weekend led to some states being estimated. The kind of economists and analysts who get quoted in business-oriented reporting about unemployment want us to know that while this is not a good sign, it's not catastrophic:
“It’s suggesting sluggishness rather than a dramatic new weakening,” said Jim O’Sullivan, chief economist at MF Global Inc. in New York. “Recessions are associated with claims shooting up and so far that hasn’t happened.”
And:
“The report continues to say what the Fed’s Beige Book told us yesterday and the jobs report told us last week, which is that people really aren’t laying off workers in larger numbers, but they aren’t hiring either,” said John Canally, economist at LPL Financial. The labour market “is sort of mired and directionless,” he said, “but it’s not flashing recession yet.”
Of course, when unemployment is at 9.1% and 6 million people have been without work for six months or more and you're debating whether a new recession might be just beginning, that does spell catastrophe for millions of working people.