Florida, oh Florida! How would my redistricting series be complete without a diary on The Sunshine State? In preparing for this monumental task, I tried my hardest to brainstorm how to best hold together proper communities of interest and create more compact districts without totally f*cking up everything.
And yes, redrawing the boundaries and doing so fairly IS harder than one may initially think. Perhaps that's why we've yet to see an official map emerge?
So here's my take on how to comply with Florida's new law. So come on, baby, do that conga and come over that squiggly con mi!
North Florida: Panhandle to Jacksonville
FL-01 (Royal Blue)
US-Pres 2008 (Top 2 Only)
McCain (R) 67.5%
Obama (D) 32.5%
Estimated FL-Gov 2010
Scott (R) 69%
Sink (D) 30%
FL-02 (Forest Green)
US-Pres 2008
McCain (R) 52.5%
Obama (D) 47.5%
Estimated FL-Gov 2010
Sink (D) 52%
Scott (R) 46%
FL-03 (Dark Purple)
US-Pres 2008
McCain (R) 58.0%
Obama (D) 42.0%
Estimated FL-Gov 2010
Scott (R) 57%
Sink (D) 42%
FL-04 (Bright Red)
US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 51%
McCain (R) 49%
Estimated FL-Gov 2010
Sink (D) 49%
Scott (R) 48%
FL-05 (Gold)
US-Pres 2008
McCain (R) 61.7%
Obama (D) 38.3%
Estimated FL-Gov 2010
Scott (R) 60%
Sink (D) 36%
I've often heard the saying that "the further north one goes in Florida, the deeper into The South one gets". That definitely seems to ring true politically in North Florida. Even as Alex Sink was underperforming President Obama's 2008 numbers elsewhere (sometimes quite dramatically, as you're about to see below), she actually OVERPERFORMED in The Panhandle Counties in and around Tallahassee! That's why she was able to carry the new FL-02 when even Obama couldn't, and that's why neither this nor the new Jacksonville centered FL-04 shouldn't be so quickly written off by the DCCC. The right Blue Dogs can definitely (respectively) reclaim FL-02 and hold onto the bulk of the remains of what had been Corrine Brown's grotesquely gerrymandered FL-03 (especially since it gets nowhere near 50% African-American VAP, I can't see any legal justification for preserving it).
Otherwise, Florida Republicans need not worry about the other Panhandle and Jacksonville area seats. Jeff Miller and Ander Crenshaw will be just fine, even if Steve Southerland may have to sweat out more close elections in the future.
The I-4 Corridor: Orlando, "Theme Worlds", & "The Space Coast", Too!
FL-06 (Teal)
US-Pres 2008
McCain (R) 56.4%
Obama (D) 43.6%
Estimated FL-Gov 2010
Scott (R) 54%
Sink (D) 41%
FL-07 (Silver)
US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 50.4%
McCain (R) 49.6%
Estimated FL-Gov 2010
Scott (R) 50%
Sink (D) 46%
FL-08 (Slate Blue)
US-Pres 2008
McCain (R) 53.3%
Obama (D) 46.7%
Estimated FL-Gov 2010
Scott (R) 53%
Sink (D) 44%
FL-09 (Cyan)
US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 59.7%
McCain (R) 40.3%
Estimated FL-Gov 2010
Sink (D) 55%
Scott (R) 42%
FL-10 (Hot Pink)
US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 61.4%
McCain (R) 38.6%
Estimated FL-Gov 2010
Sink (D) 55%
Scott (R) 42%
As you can see, it's more than just orange juice being shaken up over here! While the demise of the old FL-03 may hurt Florida Democrats in Jacksonville, what happens in Greater Orlando more than makes up for it! I was actually able to create a Latino opportunity district (42.4% Latino VAP, 59.2% overall minority-majority VAP) in the new FL-10 that's quite compact within mostly Orange and Osceola Counties (with just one arm into Polk County to grab a few Latino majority precincts). And to make this even better news for Florida Democrats, the new FL-09 is an Orlando centered district that should also be an easy pickup (especially for a strong, prominent local elected not named "Alan Grayson").
Meanwhile Rich Nugent gets a slightly more Democratic district in adding Ocala, but it's still more than Republican enough for him to breathe a major sigh of relief. On the other hand, Cliff Stearns, John Mica, and Daniel Webster are all forced to play a brutal round of "musical chairs" for a diminished number of GOP stronghold seats in the region. As mentioned above, Ocala's shift into FL-06 rips Stearns' geographic base from under him, while both Mica and Webster are dumped into the much more strongly Democratic FL-09. I suspect both of them will have to fight it out in the GOP primary for the more GOP FL-08 based in Lake and Seminole Counties (with just a hint of Orange County), while Stearns will have to hope no one else jumps for the new FL-05 that takes in St. Augustine and some of Jacksonville (along with some Ocala exurbs). (Will any of them feel "bold" enough to jump into the new "fair fight" FL-07 that takes in Daytona Beach and the Kennedy Space Center?)
The I-4 Corridor: Tampa & St. Petersburg
FL-11 (Chartreuse)
US-Pres 2008
McCain (R) 52.1%
Obama (D) 47.9%
Estimated FL-Gov 2010
Scott (R) 51%
Sink (D) 44%
FL-12 (Baby Blue)
US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 56.4%
McCain (R) 43.6%
Estimated FL-Gov 2010
Sink (D) 54%
Scott (R) 42%
FL-13 (Dark Salmon)
US-Pres 2008
McCain (R) 53.6%
Obama (D) 46.4%
Estimated FL-Gov 2010
Scott (R) 53%
Sink (D) 43%
FL-14 (Olive)
US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 61.6%
McCain (R) 38.4%
Estimated FL-Gov 2010
Sink (D) 59%
Scott (R) 38%
FL-15 (Bright Orange)
US-Pres 2008
McCain (R) 55.5%
Obama (D) 45.5%
Estimated FL-Gov 2010
Scott (R) 54%
Sink (D) 42%
Boy, oh boy, did Gus Bilirakis luck out. In drawing the new FL-11 as a Pasco County based seat, I had to extend it to north Pinellas County to reach population equity... And luckily for Bilirakis, his house was drawn into here and he gets a cozy GOP seat. Bill Young, on the other hand, will have to make a tough choice to either try holding down a more Democratic FL-12 (that reunites St. Petersburg with most of the rest of Pinellas County) or call it quits after a long and illustrious Congressional career. Dennis Ross and Kathy Castor also luck out, as Ross gets to keep a cozy GOP seat and Castor's new FL-14 doesn't lose all that many Democratic voters. (And it looks like FL-15 will be open for whichever exurban Tampa or Manatee County Republican wants it.)
South Gulf Coast: Sarasota to Fort Myers
FL-16 (Lime Green)
US-Pres 2008
McCain (R) 52.3%
Obama (D) 47.7%
Estimated FL-Gov 2010
Scott (R) 51%
Sink (D) 44%
FL-18 (Bright Yellow)
US-Pres 2008
McCain (R) 55.0%
Obama (D) 45.0%
Estimated FL-Gov 2010
Scott (R) 58%
Sink (D) 38%
If Vern Buchanan is serious about running for US Senate, he may cause more trouble than just causing another Gulf Coast Republican Congressman losing to Bill Nelson. The new FL-16 has pretty much the same partisan composition as the old FL-13, which means a strong Sarasota area Democrat may cause Republican heartburn here. The new FL-18, on the other hand, won't allow for any of that. Even if Connie Mack IV changes his mind about running for US Senate next year, Republicans need not worry about losing this Fort Myers centered district.
Florida's Treasure Coast (& Palm Beach County)
FL-17 (Midnight Blue)
US-Pres 2008
McCain (R) 55.1%
Obama (D) 44.9%
Estimated FL-Gov 2010
Scott (R) 54%
Sink (D) 41%
FL-19 (Yellow Green)
US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 51.2%
McCain (R) 48.8%
Estimated FL-Gov 2010
Sink (D) 48%
Scott (R) 48%
Bill Posey really found some good luck here... But couldn't share any of it with Tom Rooney. While Posey's new FL-17 actually becomes more Republican in losing most of Osceola County to FL-09 and FL-10, Rooney's new FL-19 becomes less Republican in taking on more of northern Palm Beach County. So Posey will probably continue to coast along while Rooney's at greater risk than ever before of getting wiped out... Especially if another "Big Blue Wave" (like the one that flipped the previous incarnation of this district in 2006) emerges.
South Florida: Palm Beach to Pembroke Pines
FL-20 (Baby Pink)
US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 67.4%
McCain (R) 32.6%
Estimated FL-Gov 2010
Sink (D) 64%
Scott (R) 34%
FL-21 (Maroon)
US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 62.5%
McCain (R) 37.5%
Estimated FL-Gov 2010
Sink (D) 60%
Scott (R) 38%
FL-22 (Milk Chocolate)
US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 64.9%
McCain (R) 35.1%
Estimated FL-Gov 2010
Sink (D) 62%
Scott (R) 36%
Many Florida Democrats will be delighted to kick ex-teabagger darling Allen West to the curb, completely lock Republicans out of Broward County for the first time EVER (!!!), and possibly even succeed in a full clean sweep of Palm Beach County (depending on winning the new swingy FL-19). However not all Democrats will be happy with this map, as Alcee Hastings' grossly gerrymandered FL-23 is dissolved and absorbed into several new Palm Beach and Broward districts. (As hard as I tried, I couldn't squeeze out more than one compact Florida district above 50% African-American VAP.)
Even though Ted Deutch's new FL-21 is slightly less Democratic than the old FL-19, I suspect it's still highly susceptible to accepting another "fire breathing liberal". And DNC Chair Debbie Wasserman-Schultz may be quite happy with her new FL-22, which actually becomes slightly MORE Democratic in compacting into just inland Broward County. However the biggest story here has to be the new FL-20, which takes together remains of the old FL-22 and FL-23 to create a compact coastal Palm Beach County district that either Lois Frankel or (that other) Patrick Murphy should have absolutely no problem winning.
South Florida: Fort Lauderdale and MIAMI!
FL-23 (Aquamarine)
US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 63.7%
McCain (R) 36.3%
Estimated FL-Gov 2010
Sink (D) 62%
Scott (R) 36%
FL-24 (Indigo)
US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 90.1%
McCain (R) 9.9%
Estimated FL-Gov 2010
Sink (D) 88%
Scott (R) 10%
FL-25 (Coral Pink)
US-Pres 2008
McCain (R) 57.0%
Obama (D) 43.0%
Estimated FL-Gov 2010
Scott (R) 57%
Sink (D) 41%
Dios, mio! This is where I ran into the most VRA trouble. For one, as I mentioned above, I had to dissolve Alcee Hastings' old district. The most heavily African-American parts of it ended up in the new FL-24, which also has most of the old FL-17... Of course, that's why I suspect Frederica Wilson will be the one to prevail in this 61.7% African-American VAP district that goes from Lauderdale Lakes to central Miami. Meanwhile, FL-25 is at an unbelievably high 82.5% Latino VAP! I really tried to create another Latino majority district out of this, but that would have involved some crazy gerrymandering. We'll have to see if David Rivera actually gets a cozy, safe district like this one.
Meanwhile, Florida Democrats get another easy pickup with the new FL-23, which happens to be a very LGBTQ centric district that extends from the growing "Gay-borhoods" of Wilton Manors and Fort Lauderdale to the legendary "Gay-borhoods" of Miami Beach... Including South Beach! Hey, Congressional LGBT Caucus, want to expand your membership?
The South of The South of The South! (Miami to Naples to Key West)
FL-26 (Silver)
US-Pres 2008
McCain (R) 59.7%
Obama (D) 40.3%
Estimated FL-Gov 2010
Scott (R) 62%
Sink (D) 36%
FL-27 (Spring Green)
US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 56.9%
McCain (R) 43.1%
Estimated FL-Gov 2010
Sink (D) 55%
Scott (R) 42%
Ay, caramba! Who would think that two Miami Cuban-Americans would represent so much "white bread" territory in Southwest Florida? Well, that's what ended up happening with our final two Florida districts... Although one of them is no longer clearly in Florida Republicans' grasp! Mario Diaz-Balart is luckier of the two, as he gets a district that extends from Cubano heavy Hialeah and Miami Lakes to lily white Naples and Marco Island. The two parts of the district couldn't be any further apart demographically, even if they're so darned alike politically. This Diaz-Balart brother shouldn't have any problems holding this district.
Ojala, but if only Florida GOP legend Ileana Ros-Lehtinen could share in that good fortune. She's placed into the brand spanking new FL-27, which mostly overlaps with the old FL-18. Yet even though the new FL-27 drops Democratic heavy Downtown Miami and Miami Beach, it actually becomes MORE Democratic by adding more territory in the southeastern corner of Miami-Dade County to counteract rock ribbed (Republican) Little Havana and chi-chi Coral Gables. Now if anyone can keep this district Red, it's probably "IRL"... But will she want to take on what will probably be the most challenging race she'll ever face, especially if she has to face a A-List Miami Democrat like Joe Garcia? Or will she prefer to end her political career on a high note? We'll have to wait and see.
And in case you weren't keeping close tabs, here's the final partisan breakdown of my proposed Florida map.
Safe Republican: FL-01, FL-03, FL-05, FL-06, FL-08, FL-11, FL-13, FL-15, FL-17, FL-18, FL-25, FL-26
Leans Republican: FL-16
Tossup: FL-02, FL-04, FL-07, FL-12, FL-19, FL-27
Lean Democratic: None... For Now! (But if Bill Young and Ileana Ros-Lehtinen feel compelled to retire, FL-12 and FL-27 will likely quickly find themselves in this column!)
Safe Democratic: FL-09, FL-10, FL-14, FL-20, FL-21, FL-22, FL-23, FL-24
In "un-gerrymandering" Florida, the state's previously downtrodden Democrats are guaranteed to expand their numbers in 2013. Even in the worst possible scenario, they gain a net of two seats (if losing FL-03, they still gain FL-09, FL-10, and FL-23) for a 19R-8D delegation. But if 2012 shines more kindly on Democrats (than 2010), then a 16R-11D or 14D-13R delegation is far more likely. And if Republicans really choke, a 15D-12R split may even be possible.