I know redistricting isn't finished yet, but I'm going to make my first House predictions. I'm only predicting which seats will flip. First, seats lost and gained through reapportionment.
New State (Old State):
Democrats: WA/OH. A new Dem seat will be created in Washington, with the Cleveland area losing one.
NV/NY. The NY Dems will lose a seat, NV gets one.
FL/MI. One new Dem seat in Orlando, Detroit area loses one.
TX/MO. Carnahan's St. Louis seat is given to South Texas.
AZ/PA. I'm optimistic that W. PA's Dem seat will become at least a Dem-leaning one in Phoenix if the commission doesn't screw us over.
Massachusetts and Iowa (Boswell) will both lose Dem seats with no new Dem seats created. Therefore reapportionment means minus 2 seats for Democrats.
UT/NY.
TX/LA.
TX/OH.
TX/IL.
FL/NJ. I still think Lance goes here.
GA and SC have the two seats the GOP picks up.
So far, GOP +2.
Now retirements or huge changes in district leading to flips:
AR-4: Mike Ross. Super-douche Ross has retired, and we honestly don't have much of a chance here.
OK-2: Dan Boren. Not quite as douche Boren has retired, and we honestly don't have much of a chance here either.
GA-12: John Barrow. I don't think Barrow can hold on.
NC-8: Larry Kissell.
NC-13: Brad Miller. Neither of these two NC Dems can hold on or have a shot at all, basically.
IN-2: Joe Donnelly. I don't think we're holding this one.
FL-10: Bill Young. I'm confident FDF will lead to his retirement.
Old CA-26: David Dreier. He has no district.
MD-6: Roscoe Bartlett. He's old and has no district.
So, from reapportionment R+2, from retirements and huge changes, R+3. R+5 total.
Now from incumbents running with a good chance of winning.
GOP Pickups:
Old CA-20: Jim Costa is moving into Cardoza's district, which means Cardoza is probably retiring (they're BFFLs). It'll be close, but I think it's a GOP pickup.
FL-3: Corinne Brown would lose a D+3, and she'll end up in more like an R+3. She deserves it for challenging an amendment that would help her party.
These are the only two other seats I see the GOP picking up, so we're at R+7.
You might ask about the following:
Jim Matheson and Jim Cooper. I think the GOP gives both of them seats. Incidentally, this leads to the following moderate to conservative Dems remaining in Congress:
Jim Matheson, Jim Cooper, Jim Costa (all these Jims), Mike McIntyre, Heath Shuler, Bill Owens, Kurt Schrader, Collin Peterson, Mark Critz/Jason Altmire, Tim Holden, Ben Chandler.
And that's it.
Now on to Dem pickups.
IL-17. Bobby Schilling only won because Phil Hare was the biggest FAIL of a candidate in Congress. He's done.
IL-10: Bob Dold is definitely a one-termer as well.
IL-14: Either Joe Walsh, "parent," or Randy Hultgren, boring conservative will go down in this primary.
IL-16: Either Adam Kinzinger or Don Manzullo will go down in this primary (or Manzullo retires).
Old CA-24: I think Gallegly might just bail, but he isn't gonna get re-elected either way.
Old CA-50: Bilbray's district is blue enough he COULD hold it, and it'll be around 50-50, but I'm giving it to the Dems.
Old CA-42: This became a VRA district, so yeah, either Miller or Royce (probably Royce) loses in a primary in a different district.
Old CA-3: Lungren's too conservative to hold this.
AZ-1: I don't think Paul Gosar is likeable, and Kirkpatrick's moderate enough to take him out after one term.
NV-3: Joe Heck's going down, IMO. 3-1 Nevada seems realistic.
WI-7: Sean Duffy's terrible at PR and not very intelligent. His district is still swingy as well.
MN-8: Chip Cravaack was a major fluke.
MI-7: Tim Walberg is a birther in a swingy district. I don't think he holds on; he already lost once.
NH-2: Guinta may remain, but Bass is not well-liked and Kuster is.
CO-?: I think one Republican loses, but it's anyone's guess which of the 3 non-Lamborn ones.
PA-?: One suburban R will lose. I'm going to guess Meehan, but I'm really not sure.
FL-22: War criminal Allen West should be in prison, but at least he won't be in Congress after 2012, unless he primaries Rivera and wins.
So after R+7 and D+17, we're at D+10, which is my prediction as of now.