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Bob Turner
Public Policy Polling (PDF). 9/8-11. Likely voters. MoE ±3.8% (no trendlines):
David Weprin (D): 41
Bob Turner (R): 47
Christopher Hoeppner (SWP): 4
Undecided: 7

Usually when one or both of the major House committees—the DCCC and the NRCC—stay out of a special election, that tells you a race isn't going to be close. Chalk NY-09 up as a major exception, where the NRCC and other outside groups spent barely a penny but things nonetheless got turned on their head—leading the D-Trip to airdrop in ad dollars at the very last moment. It doesn't look like it's helping. Tom explains:

Turner's winning in a heavily Democratic district for two reasons: a huge lead with independents and a large amount of crossover support. He's ahead by 32 points at 58-26 with voters unaffiliated with either major party. And he's winning 29% of the Democratic vote, holding Weprin under 60% with voters of his own party, while losing just 10% of Republican partisans.

If Turner wins on Tuesday it will be largely due to the incredible unpopularity of Barack Obama dragging his party down in the district. Obama won 55% there in 2008 but now has a staggeringly bad 31% approval rating, with 56% of voters disapproving of him. It's a given that Republicans don't like him but more shocking are his 16% approval rating with independents and the fact that he's below 50% even with Democrats at 46% approving and 38% disapproving. Obama trails Mitt Romney 46-42 in a hypothetical match up in the district and leads Rick Perry only 44-43.

As for the candidates themselves, PPP's findings suggest that Turner and Weprin's individual candidacies matter a lot less than the backdrop against which they're running:

Beyond Obama's weakness, Turner has actually proven to be a pretty strong candidate. 45% of voters rate him favorably to 30% with a negative opinion. Independents give him good marks by a 56/17 spread and he has better than normal numbers across party lines with 29% of Democrats expressing a positive view of him to just 43% with an unfavorable one.

Weprin has been much maligned as a candidate but he actually has positive favorability numbers too with 39% of voters rating him positively and 36% negatively. Over the last few years there have been very few races we polled where a candidate had a postive net favorability spread and still lost. If Obama's approval in the district was even 40% Weprin would almost definitely be headed to Congress. He's getting dragged down by something bigger than himself.

To me, this squares with Colin Campbell's excellent run-down of how we got to where we are in this race. Above all else, Colin explores two factors that explain the situation: (1) the district's weak Democratic leanings (which have only been growing weaker with time) and (2) President Obama's unpopularity. That last point is especially troubling, as Tom observes:

One final note on the poll and what perhaps should concern Democrats most of all. 55% of voters in the district report having voted for Obama in 2008, which is the actual percentage of the vote he got in the district. Last year a lot of the races Democrats lost were because their voters didn't show up and the electorate was far more conservative than for a Presidential year. When you lose that way you can say, well, our voters will come back out in 2012 and we'll be fine. But there is no enthusiasm gap here. Obama voters are showing up in the same numbers they did in 2008. But only 65% of them are voting Democratic. That's a really big cause for concern.

It's not necessarily over for Weprin, but if one-time Obama voters are now showing up to vote Republican, that's a pretty brutal sign. Coming on top of Siena's poll which also had Turner up by six, it's hard to see much cause for optimism.

Originally posted to Daily Kos Elections on Sun Sep 11, 2011 at 08:25 PM PDT.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

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Comment Preferences

  •  I guess I'll just repost my thoughts... (9+ / 0-)

    From the other thread:

    The question beyond what Turner's margin on Tuesday ends up being (unless Weprin can make a last-minute push to victory, which is unlikely) what President Obama does with the conundrum of the Israel hawks' vote next year.

    I think attempting to triangulate would be a misstep. Militant Zionism (to use the term in the I.R. sense, not the anti-Israeli pejorative) is almost a faith unto itself, and just as I don't think Romney can ever ingratiate himself with ardent pro-life conservatives because he was once perceived as a pro-choice moderate, I don't think Obama can win back many of the hawks who have defected to the likes of Turner over this manufactured controversy just by talking tough on the Palestinian statehood bid or revising the administration's policy on the 1967 borders or the West Bank settlements. I think they're gone for good.

    Assuming Obama stays the course, and hoping there's not another unexpected showdown between a moderate White House that has decidedly preferred soft power and multilateralism in its foreign policy approach (relative to the previous administration) and a right-wing Knesset that has embraced unilateralism and rejected compromise, it seems likely to assume that the rift between Democrats and the Israel hawks will stay the same or widen.

    The question is, and this isn't a rhetorical question, how big a presence are voters whose primary concern is Israel outside of the heavily Jewish Orthodox NY-09?

    Democrat, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

    by SaoMagnifico on Sun Sep 11, 2011 at 08:30:26 PM PDT

    •  To answer your question: (12+ / 0-)
      The question is, and this isn't a rhetorical question, how big a presence are voters whose primary concern is Israel outside of the heavily Jewish Orthodox NY-09?

      There are no other districts like this one. Yes, there are some districts that may have more Jews, but they are almost all much more Democratic as a whole. According to a study (PDF), this was the 4th-most Jewish district in the nation in 2006. All the other heavily Jewish districts are much bluer, as you can see. You very quickly get into districts where Jews are barely 10% of the population.

      Political Director, Daily Kos

      by David Nir on Sun Sep 11, 2011 at 08:39:41 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  That's what I figured (6+ / 0-)

        My next question, though, is what happens to all the money from disproportionately Jewish and wealthy sectors of the economy that traditionally pours into Democratic coffers? I know there are a lot of big Jewish donors lined up behind the Democratic Party at most election times, helping to counterbalance the flood of big money inevitably unleashed by corporate bigwigs and conservative ultramillionaires like the Koch brothers, J. Boone Pickens, and the Chamber of Commerce crowd in favor of the Republicans. How big a deal is it that President Obama is perceived as being less vociferously pro-Israel than he was in 2008, or than Sen. Kerry was in 2004, etc.?

        Democrat, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

        by SaoMagnifico on Sun Sep 11, 2011 at 08:55:28 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  So, far, fundraising has been OK... (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          SaoMagnifico, Lujane, MichaelNY

          ...at least as it was last reported a few months ago.

          This election won't help, since it will be publicized in the Jewish media and reinforce a false message that Obama's anti-israel.  That is going to require a lot of repair work.

          GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

          by LordMike on Sun Sep 11, 2011 at 08:58:45 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  I'm guessing here (3+ / 0-)

          But I suspect that many major Jewish donors are more moderate/reform Jews and, while Israel may be an issue for them, it's certainly not the only one.

          •  And the Orthodox tend to have less money (6+ / 0-)

            It's the poorest segment of the US Jewish community.

            It's also the most socially conservative, which makes them more open to the GOP.  What they make of people like Michelle Bachmann,  I wouldn't even want to guess.  Lay down with dogs...

            You can't govern if you can't tell the country where you are taking it. The plot of Obama's presidency has been harder to follow than "Inception." -- F. Rich

            by mbayrob on Sun Sep 11, 2011 at 11:41:43 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  You mean the Chassidim, don't you? (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              LordMike

              I think Modern Orthodox Jews tend to be fairly well-to-do. And I don't like confusing the two rather different segments of the Jewish Community with each other.

              Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

              by MichaelNY on Mon Sep 12, 2011 at 02:11:02 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

            •  True, but they voted Obama in 2008. (0+ / 0-)

              They were socially conservative then too.  The question is, what changed?  Is it perceptions over Israel, the economy in general (given Orthodox Jews relative poverty compared to other U.S. Jews), or something else?  

              •  Palin. Palin, Palin, Palin. (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                LordMike

                She scared the vast majority of American Jews of all stripes right into Obama's camp, as her outspoken Christianist (not to be confused with Christian) positions came off with a strong whiff of religious oppression.

                28, chick, solid progressive, NY-14 currently, FL-22 native, went to school in IL-01.

                by The Caped Composer on Mon Sep 12, 2011 at 09:27:24 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

        •  Orthodox Jews don't vote like most Jews (10+ / 0-)

          While I've certainly seen a fair number of Jews who aren't so warm to Obama over what they perceive to be his policy on Israel (which AFAICT, is not actually his policy on Israel), I don't think that this has weakened his support in the Jewish community as a whole that much.  I'm much more likely to hear people who are pissed as hell at him for being a disappointment on economic policy, frankly.

          But Orthodox Jews aren't "most Jews".  They've been tilting Republican for a while on social issues, and they are much more likely to support the Israeli right over the Israeli center or left.  But in absolute terms, they are not that numerous.  And it's pretty rare that you'd have enough of them in a single congressional district for them to be a major factor, this one district aside.

          I don't think there's much Obama can do to make these people happy.  Mostly, the I/P peace talks have been dead in the water for years, both due to Netanyahu and the composition of his government, the weakness of  Palestinian Authority, and the lack of any constructive contacts between the Hamas government in Gaza and pretty much anyone in Israel, in or out of government.  All the US can do right now is try to keep things from blowing up, and wait for a better set of governments.  I don't see what Obama can do differently here.

          The best thing Obama can do about the Jewish vote is to improve the economy,  and show some fight, frankly.  Which is not that different from what Obama needs to do about the rest of the US vote.

          You can't govern if you can't tell the country where you are taking it. The plot of Obama's presidency has been harder to follow than "Inception." -- F. Rich

          by mbayrob on Sun Sep 11, 2011 at 11:35:08 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  Hell, the most Jewish in the country (FL-19) (9+ / 0-)

        stayed Democratic in a special in April 2010. Republicans thought the Israel issue would allow them to be competitive; it wasn't even close.

        I think Israel isn't the only thing driving the result in NY-9.

    •  He doesn't need to triangulate. (7+ / 0-)

      Relations between the US and Israel are thawing, partly because of Obama's strong stand--Israel is behaving better which puts us in a better position with them.  And now that Egypt is blowing up, Israel needs us more than ever.

      There are plenty of ways for relations between Obama and Israel issue voters to improve over the course of the year.  I suspect the president will be doing all he can.

      I do have to agree with Dave Wiegel, though, making the 1967 policy public was a huge, unneccesary own goal for Obama.

      GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

      by LordMike on Sun Sep 11, 2011 at 08:55:34 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Egypt is hovering at that thin line... (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        LordMike, Christopher Walker

        Between godsend and sticky wicket in terms of our Middle East policy.

        President Obama has been a chess grandmaster in dealing with the Arab Spring. I don't believe any past president could have handled the situation as deftly. He's taken the U.S. from being, in the eyes of the Arab street, a global bully that propped up thuggish regimes in Egypt, Tunisia, Bahrain, and Yemen, turned a blind eye to human rights violations in Libya and Syria, and installed puppet governments in Iraq and (non-Arab) Afghanistan, to being a country that has led international action to respond to the concerns of the people, even when it means committing U.S. forces for little strategic gain or sacrificing longtime allies like former President Mubarak and President Saleh. All the while, he's been quietly working to limit the fallout of the rise of these Arab democratic movements (in a region where Israel is not very popular, to say the least, with the Arab street) on Israel, our traditional ally in the region.

        If he continues to thread the needle while negotiating this latest spat between Israel and Egypt (and the mutually antagonistic Egyptian and Israeli governments publicly recommitting to the Camp David Accords and basically agreeing to pretend like the embassy storming never happened has Washington's fingerprints all over it), then he could potentially avert a diplomatic crisis and earn some gratitude for the openly pro-Republican prime minister of Israel for his efforts.

        But if he appears too loudly pro-Israel (either in this or at the United Nations, in opposition to the Palestinians' statehood bid), he could lose the fragile trust of the Arab street and set back his efforts to rehabilitate the image of the U.S. in the Middle East, and thus lose his clout as a mediator between Egypt (which isn't run by the street, but hardly has a firm lid on it) and Israel.

        And if he appears too equivocal in his support for Israel's security and sovereignty, he could further alienate the Israeli government. And if Prime Minister Netanyahu's actions while visiting the U.S. this summer indicated anything, it's that he thinks little of sabotaging Obama in the eyes of Israel hawks in the U.S. in hopes of getting a more cooperative Republican president come 2013.

        So, if he can draw an inside straight on both this statehood bid and the squabble between Egypt and Israel, he can get a long way toward closing the rift both with the Arabs and with the Israeli conservatives. But if he missteps on either one, it could do some damage. And that's going to be felt in districts like NY-09, and it may well be felt in Hollywood and the Hamptons, too.

        Democrat, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

        by SaoMagnifico on Sun Sep 11, 2011 at 09:08:48 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I'm very skeptical (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          LordMike, dgil, happymisanthropy

          that President Obama has rehabilitated the image of the US much in the Arab world, except inasmuch as it was at the lowest possible ebb during the GW Bush Administration. Note that the Obama Administration has not pressed the Bahraini Emir to do anything.

          Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

          by MichaelNY on Sun Sep 11, 2011 at 10:44:29 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  I don't agree (4+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY, KingofSpades, redwagon, sfgb

            When Syrians are thanking the U.S. ambassador for his support and Libyans are waving American flags at rallies - and these are two countries whose leaders, President Assad and Col. Qaddafi, were longtime foes of the U.S. and used anti-American rhetoric frequently - it's clear there's been some sort of turnaround.

            While I personally deplore our double standard in dealing with Bahrain alone among the Arab Spring nations, we've benefited from Al Jazeera's reluctance to cover the situation there much out of concern at inflaming tensions with Bahrain (and thus with Saudi Arabia), since much of the network's funding comes from the Qatari government even though it is officially independent and is functionally free from government censorship. The result is that a lot of activists, judging from the cross-section on Twitter, are upset about Bahrain but positively livid over Syria, Egypt, and Libya, where the U.S. has been making all the right moves.

            Democrat, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

            by SaoMagnifico on Sun Sep 11, 2011 at 11:22:57 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Side point (0+ / 0-)

              As a regular reader/watcher of Al Jazeera, I would disagree that they have been the least bit reluctant to cover Bahrain. Can you name any large media organization that's covered Bahrain better and with more emphasis?

              Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

              by MichaelNY on Mon Sep 12, 2011 at 02:13:06 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  Maybe Voice of America (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY

                I am a big fan of Al Jazeera, but Bahrain has been the redheaded stepchild of the Arab revolts, even more so than Yemen. Voice of America has probably done the best job there, but even its coverage has been spotty.

                Democrat, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

                by SaoMagnifico on Mon Sep 12, 2011 at 10:22:53 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

      •  And here IS a bit of very good news (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        LordMike, MichaelNY, Fe Bongolan

        The Palestinian National Authority won't force a veto showdown at the United Nations Security Council, quietly shelving ambitions for full UN membership. This is critical for allowing the United States to save face, and full credit should go to both President Abbas for putting the need for a political solution before counterproductive showboating and President Obama for leaning on the Palestinians without coming off like a massive dick and antagonizing them. Story here.

        The whole process beyond Obama getting a crucial out on having to veto Palestinian statehood is not really germane to horse-race politics, so if you're interested in foreign policy vis-a-vis Israel, Palestine, and the European Union, y'all should read the article yourselves...

        Democrat, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

        by SaoMagnifico on Sun Sep 11, 2011 at 10:17:24 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  I'm not sure in what way you think (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        esquimaux, happymisanthropy

        Israel is "behaving better," but we'd be best not to argue that in any direction in this sub-site. We all need to tread carefully because I have friends who can discuss all kinds of things rationally but take leave of their senses on anything involving Israel, and we simply don't want that kind of blowup to happen here.

        Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

        by MichaelNY on Sun Sep 11, 2011 at 10:42:12 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Wiegel is wrong (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        happymisanthropy

        Dave Wiegel is wrong. Pres. Obama's Israeli policy is identical to Bush's stated stance on pre 1967 borders. This is just an excuse for the Orthodox Jews who'd rather support a tea party nut than an orthodox Jewish Democrat. They're more angered that Weprin supported gay marriage.

    •  Well, most of the ultra-hawk Zionists (5+ / 0-)

      aren't going to vote for Obama, anyway, because most of them are far-right Christian Evangelicals, and most Jews - even most Modern Orthodox Jews - though in many cases ardent Zionists, are not extremists and care about social justice and the potential threat of domination from intolerant Christian Right meddlers more than they do about U.S. policy toward whichever government is currently running Israel. Anyway, Jews are about 2% of the vote, nationwide, and are not close to a majority in any state, so it makes a hell of a lot more sense for Obama to try to win on economic issues that affect everybody than by pretending to be an ultra-hawk Zionist.

      So we're mainly in agreement, but with somewhat different emphases.

      Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

      by MichaelNY on Sun Sep 11, 2011 at 10:39:40 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  It is a issue but not necessarily the issue. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      I consider myself very pro-Israel.  If I honestly thought Obama was anti-Israel probably enough that I could see myself defecting if push came to shove.

      Right now there is fear Obama COULD sell out Israel.  Obama hasn't.  And thus it is the most excitable and already right leaning who are making the biggest deal out of Obama's statements.

      I think one thing that is overlooked in NY-09 is the dramatic rightward shift within the Russian (and Eastern European in general) community (many of whom are Jewish and secular) in the last few years.  That does not necessarily have anything to do with either Israel nor gay marriage.

      •  So it's not just the Orthodox (0+ / 0-)

        people that are shifting rightward in the district? What makes you so sure?

        •  Anecdotally I can back him up (0+ / 0-)

          I used to know a guy who lives in Rockaway (I believe the part that's in this district, not NY-06's minority-heavy chunk) whose parents were Jewish immigrants from Russia. And they supported Romney in 2008 but for economic reasons. Blech.

          21, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), working in MA-08 for the summer, hopeless Swingnut

          by sapelcovits on Mon Sep 12, 2011 at 07:03:25 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  And this is a trend not just confined to this (0+ / 0-)

            district? This seems to be at odds with what I had heard otherwise, but then, that's just going on memory and nothing specific.

            •  I have been noticing this anecdotally. (0+ / 0-)

              For example Janele Hyer-Spencer here in Staten Island took a LOT of flack that cost her politically for her support of the Russian community.  With many saying a community center she supported would just end up being used by the Russians.  Many old timers, particularly Italians, complain that there are "too many Russians" at the public beaches.

              This did not stop her from losing the Russian vote in 2010.  Not just in Staten Island but also in the Brooklyn part of the district.  I'll add in fairness she was toast anyway and did not run all that great of a campaign.

              I don't have any polling to back this up but it has been something people have been whispering since 2008.  That the Russians are shifting hard towards the Republicans.

  •  Yikes (6+ / 0-)

    Brutal is all I can say... 2012 is looking worse and worse every day. I am becoming pessimistic about Obama's chances. Not good.

    19, gay male, IL 7, MN 4 (College)

    by knickelbein5 on Sun Sep 11, 2011 at 08:34:06 PM PDT

  •  If Obama has any effect, it's that he's (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Lujane

    NOT on the ballot. In 2008 (and 2012) his name drew tens of millions to the polls, and many in Congress rode his coattails. He can't help this guy like that unfortunately. But if he loses and challenges in 2012, Obama will be on the ballot then and he should have a much better chance.

    Don't tell me what I can't do! I'll tread on you if I feel like it...

    by doc2 on Sun Sep 11, 2011 at 08:38:07 PM PDT

  •  This district loved Anthony Weiner (7+ / 0-)

    even though he supported single-payer health care.

    "[R]ather high-minded, if not a bit self-referential"--The Washington Post.

    by Geekesque on Sun Sep 11, 2011 at 08:40:33 PM PDT

  •  asdf (6+ / 0-)

    If there's one thing I wish Dems would learn from Republicans (aside from party unity and relentless discipline about GOTV): it's this:

    Ever since Goldwater's loss in '64, when the GOP vowed never to lose again, the R's have been developing candidates from the ground up: school boards, town councils, county commissioners and then to state legislatures and so on. All of those boring downticket races are there, my friends, as the lower rungs of the candidates' career ladder. Dems just don't seem have to machine oiled well enough to develop good candidates, and so we're left once more with poor choices at the ballot box.

    Sigh.

  •  here's the cruel reality of this election (9+ / 0-)

    the whole "It's all an Israeli thing" is a cool story and all, but how much of it was really due to stuff Obama did, and how much of it was stirred up and now we're supposed to act like it wasn't based on a solid two-month long campaign aided by the same sort of money that elected Republicans last year?

    If the economy were making progress, the Israel and Same-Sex Marriage things wouldn't be turning 55% Obama districts into 10 point Republican victories. The anger rests first in the economy and the Republicans channeled it into anger over other issues.

    The one thing that should be concerning is the lack of effectiveness of an "attack first" Democratic campaign. Turner wouldn't be winning if the attacks about him had any effect. And there's a lot of 2010 examples of Republicans having those attacks bounce off of them. That's concerning because it seems to be the exact strategy that people think is going to work next year in the Presidential campaign.

    It won't work.

    You have to establish relevance and a positive reason to vote for a candidate. And did they really do that here with David Weprin?

    When it comes to my experiences, let's just say I saw a Senate campaign last year where the Dem was going pure negative for a good 45 days straight post-primary, and by the time she did positive ads, nobody was listening. And the people who were seeking a change then went and voted for the guy who had been in an elective office for almost 36 straight years. Because the Dem candidate thought that just pointing out the warts on the Republican was enough to win.

    The Republican Party isn't a party of small government, it's a party of a government for the few. @bhindepmo

    by RBH on Sun Sep 11, 2011 at 08:55:53 PM PDT

    •  If it were just the economy.... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike

      Weprin would win, hands down since he would have the Orthodox and Hassidic community locked down.

      How The Doctor does redistricting: 'I'm going to need a SWAT team ready to mobilize, street-level maps covering all of Florida, a pot of coffee, twelve jammie dodgers and a fez.'

      by KingofSpades on Sun Sep 11, 2011 at 09:01:43 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  yeah (5+ / 0-)

        that's why they didn't make it about the economy. They made it about other things and used the people mad about the economy to get traction.

        If I spent millions to make something an issue, it's gonna become an issue. And that's what they did here.

        But if the economy were improving, the traction for this stuff wouldn't be there.

        The Republican Party isn't a party of small government, it's a party of a government for the few. @bhindepmo

        by RBH on Sun Sep 11, 2011 at 09:12:27 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Reposting: This poll just confirms my suspicion (5+ / 0-)

    that this race going so poorly for Democrats has everything to do with Obama and anger over the economy and Israel (specific for Jews) and less to do with local issues and the microscopic level disputes over candidate selection and the like.

    Occam's razor guys. I know why you'd want to search for excuses but the national climate is still piss poor for us.

    •  This is a tempest in a teapot. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike

      A group of people who have bizarre beliefs about Obama's foreign policy and have jumped off the deep end.

      How The Doctor does redistricting: 'I'm going to need a SWAT team ready to mobilize, street-level maps covering all of Florida, a pot of coffee, twelve jammie dodgers and a fez.'

      by KingofSpades on Sun Sep 11, 2011 at 09:01:11 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Not true (3+ / 0-)

        Have you looked at the poll that breaks up the religions into crosstabs? Obama's numbers are awful among all groups with a nearly universal swing.

      •  While I'd attribute most of this to the Orthodox (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        LordMike, MichaelNY, nimh

        The white working class has also turned on the Democrats and Obama heavily for economic reasons and they couldn't care less about Israel. Hispanics and Asians seem to be lukewarm as well on the President, even when he's faced off against Romney/Perry. While I doubt that would happen after a protracted election campaign, it bodes poorly.

      •  economic anger helps (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        LordMike, MichaelNY

        let's just say that Republicans don't necessarily need to focus the election on the economy, and they're not going to get any of the blame for it being slowed down. So they're in a hell of a spot there.

        Republicans don't really have anything new to say or purpose on the economy and they don't need it either. So they see a group of people who are unhappy and they're spending the money to connect their anger to an issue to make them vote Republican.

        If the economy was still improving, the Israel/SSM stuff would be getting less traction and Weprin would be winning.

        But the whole Citizens United effect is in play here, as the worst Supreme Court decision of this century continues to work wonders.

        The Republican Party isn't a party of small government, it's a party of a government for the few. @bhindepmo

        by RBH on Sun Sep 11, 2011 at 09:09:52 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Citizens United decision has little sway here (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          LordMike

          Spending by shadowy groups has been quite small here.

          How The Doctor does redistricting: 'I'm going to need a SWAT team ready to mobilize, street-level maps covering all of Florida, a pot of coffee, twelve jammie dodgers and a fez.'

          by KingofSpades on Sun Sep 11, 2011 at 09:32:11 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  I don't think shadowy groups work like that (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            LordMike

            How are shadowy groups being defined here? And how much of their spending can people really figure out pre-election? Smoke-screens, you know

            And if it was just a single-issue victory, why should I have any confidence that this won't wound Obama's political capital and throw him off-message again and cause more of the usual walking into beartraps?

            The Republican Party isn't a party of small government, it's a party of a government for the few. @bhindepmo

            by RBH on Sun Sep 11, 2011 at 09:41:46 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  When Karl Rove is on your ass, you know it (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY, LordMike

              It's actually pretty easy to know when these groups are active.  For a good reason -- Citizens United basically legalized bribery.  And there's not point in an anonymous bribe -- it doesn't buy politicians the way these people need them bought.

              You can't govern if you can't tell the country where you are taking it. The plot of Obama's presidency has been harder to follow than "Inception." -- F. Rich

              by mbayrob on Sun Sep 11, 2011 at 11:53:34 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

  •  I try not to read too much into special elections (4+ / 0-)

    about the mood of the electorate - but the independent swing to republicans some of us have been fearing does seem to be actually happening.  If so, we have a lot of work to do leading into 2012, assuming party leadership doesn't continue underminding the effort.

  •  Perry leads Obama 47 to 43 with Jews in this poll (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, GOPGO2H3LL

    now that scares me about Obama's re-elect next year. In addition, turnout does not seem to be the problem here. 55% voted for Obama in 2008, 55% of the poll sample voted for Obama as well.

  •  Hold on!!! (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades

    We've got a bunch of polls that say a lot of different things.  The Siena poll has Obama approval at 45, not 31, and they were in the field one day earlier.  The Magellan poll has Dems leading the generic ballot by five as Weprin is losing by 4.  

    So, here's the sum total:

    One poll that says it's all Obama's fault
    One poll that says it's Weprin's fault and
    One poll that says it's Ed Koch's fault

    It's hard to read into anything here, really.  A lot of factors are involved, none of which would be in play had a small group of fanatics decided to sabotage the election.

    GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

    by LordMike on Sun Sep 11, 2011 at 09:08:05 PM PDT

  •  This is just ugly up and down (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, MichaelNY

    There isn't a grain of hope in the poll that I can see.

    My only hope is that the people showing up on tuesday are an unrepresentative sample.

    Ok, so I read the polls.

    by andgarden on Sun Sep 11, 2011 at 09:09:00 PM PDT

  •  Other Stuff (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, greatdarkspot, DaleA, MichaelNY

    Okay Obama is dragging down Weprin and Israel really is not behind this, etc.

    However, there is something else in the PPP numbers that remains bewildering.  How is it that Schumer, Cuomo and even Gilibrand by a narrow margin have such good approval ratings?  Shouldn't they all be dragged down?  Arguably their numbers would all be higher w/o negative feelings about Obama?

    There may be something to the gay-marriage thing.  Among Orthodox Jews and Catholics, arguably the kind that actually care what the church says, there has to be a bad taste in people's mouth.  These people are already moderate to conservative leaning to begin with so to be knocked in the direction of a Republic between a bad economic situation (blame Obama) and gay marriage (blame Weprin) and you have a perfect storm.

    By far the worst part of this will be the days of stories analyzing this race divining answers that may not be wrong, but not terribly applicable to, well, anywhere else in the country.

    "How do you have patience for people who claim they love America, but clearly can't stand Americans"-Annette Benning as Sydney Ellen Wade in the American President

    by Mski011 on Sun Sep 11, 2011 at 09:09:48 PM PDT

  •  An Outlier? (5+ / 0-)

    The recent WaPo/ABC poll just showed Republicans w/ a 68% DISAPPROVAL overall.  NY09 doesn't reflect the entire country.  This sounds like a local issue.....period.

    Wonder how they'll feel about electing a Republican 8 months from now?  That's exactly how long it took Republicans to wipe out their approval from 2010.

    I'd love to check back w/ NY09 in 8 months.  What about their beloved Anthony?  They seem like a fickle crowd in his district.  I thought he did so much for them.  Out of sight, out of mind apparently as far as NY09 goes.  

  •  36% Jews PPP vs. 31% Siena (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, MichaelNY

    Not much of a difference.

  •  if you wanted more PPP teasers (6+ / 0-)
    Obama's approval in NV-2, where he basically tied in 2008, is now 33/59

    So what's a good over/under on the amount of Citizens United money that'll spend in 2012? $500M?

    Just saying, these things have effects, and if you spend first, you're a good bet to win. Even if your spending just makes sure that the voters won't listen to the spending against your candidate.

    The Republican Party isn't a party of small government, it's a party of a government for the few. @bhindepmo

    by RBH on Sun Sep 11, 2011 at 09:25:32 PM PDT

  •  D+5 is not "heavily Democratic". (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    Somebody is working at lowering expectations for Turner.

    I changed by not changing at all, small town predicts my fate, perhaps that's what no one wants to see. -6.38, -4.15

    by James Allen on Sun Sep 11, 2011 at 09:32:50 PM PDT

    •  60% Dem party ID is, though (4+ / 0-)

      You know what other kinds of places have 60% Dem party ID and elect Republicans absent Axe Murder (D)? West Virginia, Arkansas, and various places south of the Mason Dixon.

      Ok, so I read the polls.

      by andgarden on Sun Sep 11, 2011 at 09:34:39 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  C'mon (5+ / 0-)

      Are you really accusing Tom of dirty pool? This is a heavily Democratic district. Check out the enrollment figures (PDF): 196K Dems to just 62K Republicans. I think andgarden's comparisons to other "ancestrally Democratic" locales is fairly apt.

      Political Director, Daily Kos

      by David Nir on Sun Sep 11, 2011 at 09:54:14 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  When I hear "heavily" (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        LordMike

        I think "safe" or at least "likely".  Republicans do hold at least one more district that is more Democratic than this.  It's not that inconceivable that a Republican could win this district, maybe just that a guy like Turner could rather than a real good candidate.

        And I don't know if Tom is trying to play it up as bigger than it is, but c'mon, this isn't as Democratic as NY-26 was Republican.  Yeah, we could've done better, but it's not one of those big city districts that's like D+30.  We're in such trouble that we're losing a safe Dem district.  It's only D+5, regardless of registration.

        I changed by not changing at all, small town predicts my fate, perhaps that's what no one wants to see. -6.38, -4.15

        by James Allen on Sun Sep 11, 2011 at 10:04:08 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  It's plenty good enough for success. (0+ / 0-)

      What do we need, Dem+10 now to win a race?  That's lame.

      the economy is crappy, big money is being spent against us, the guy they liked was removed without asking them and more or less against their will, they were served up a hack in exchange, and Obama did something they didn't like about Israel.

      I think they're being really shortsighted, but our system gives them limited ways to express their displeasure.

      Nowhere do I understand that national security is a substitute for the law.---Thomas Drake You cannot tell from appearances how things will go.--Winston Churchill

      by SouthernLiberalinMD on Mon Sep 12, 2011 at 06:55:28 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Calm down! Get ahold of yourselves!!! (9+ / 0-)

    It's silly to panic at the moment.  Yes, this race is lost, but it's a 20% turnout race that was already tainted by scandal and then sabotaged.  The general election is not tomorrow, it's over a year from now.

    These special elections mean very little, as you all know, otherwise Mark Critz would be presiding in the majority right now.

    These are low turnout special elections after the worst month in Democratic history.  The numbers are going to be whack for us for awhile.  Just be thankful that the general election isn't THIS November.

    GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

    by LordMike on Sun Sep 11, 2011 at 09:39:46 PM PDT

    •  Agreed (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, SaoMagnifico

      Let's not forget another detail.  That damn debt deal still looms over the real liberals in NY-9 depressing turnout and enthusiasm.  Obama did not have a good August by any measure.  Plus, let's not forget that low approval of the president cuts both ways.  How many anti-ACA people were actually mad it did not go far enough?

      Aside from the litany of phony insight that will come out of this election from the beltway media, the biggest casualty may be Kathy Hochul because suddently she becomes the odd man out on the Democrat's side for a lost Congressional seat.

      If OR-1 in January goes south, then it may be time to panic.

      "How do you have patience for people who claim they love America, but clearly can't stand Americans"-Annette Benning as Sydney Ellen Wade in the American President

      by Mski011 on Sun Sep 11, 2011 at 09:51:29 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  There's a huge storm outside. (0+ / 0-)

      Some pretty loud thunderclaps stole away my attention from this.  Yes, we shouldn't worry too much about what this tempest in a teapot says.  I'll go chill and go to sleep.

      How The Doctor does redistricting: 'I'm going to need a SWAT team ready to mobilize, street-level maps covering all of Florida, a pot of coffee, twelve jammie dodgers and a fez.'

      by KingofSpades on Sun Sep 11, 2011 at 09:54:40 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Times are bad for us.... (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KingofSpades, MichaelNY

        But, you didn't need a special election or some polling to tell you that.

        We all know that we'd lose big if the general election was tomorrow.  This polling is giving us no new information, really.

        Fortunately, the general election isn't tomorrow.

        In the meantime, we have to find out what we can do to turn things around.  One year ago, we were getting crushed, then six months ago, things were looking bright.

        Things change so quickly nowadays, who knows what will happen 6 months from now, much less a year from now.

        GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

        by LordMike on Sun Sep 11, 2011 at 10:01:05 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  How do you know it's going to be a 20 (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      percent turnout election?

    •  I'm glad you're trying to calm the waters (0+ / 0-)

      but in the interests of accuracy, redistricting makes this more than just some special election

      Nowhere do I understand that national security is a substitute for the law.---Thomas Drake You cannot tell from appearances how things will go.--Winston Churchill

      by SouthernLiberalinMD on Mon Sep 12, 2011 at 06:56:59 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  PPP NV-2 out... (4+ / 0-)

    We're losing 50-37

    http://t.co/...

    Anyone remember when they polled last and it was tied?  Was that before the debt ceiling thing?

    GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

    by LordMike on Sun Sep 11, 2011 at 09:57:50 PM PDT

  •  I have to say, I'm really quite shocked that (5+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    IdahoSocialist, DaleA, MichaelNY, nimh, sweeper

    even regulars here engage in the "blame the candidates" business. That's what you usually do when you're losing and you're desperately grasping for straws-- and that is the reason of course. No matter what things Weprin and Marshall have or haven't done.

    You're not winning open seat races when your president is in the lower 30s in those districts. Not gonna happen unless your name is Manchin or your opponent's name Levi Johnson or something like that.

    DCCC ads? Not knowing the size of the deficit? Talking too much about Bush tax cuts and Libya? Bullshit. 95% of this is Obama's approval rating, and spinning that away isn't really what DK Elections should be doing.

    •  Generic ballot says it all (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      These voters like the House GOP over Obama. That's what this comes down to.

      Ok, so I read the polls.

      by andgarden on Sun Sep 11, 2011 at 10:00:38 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  The candidate contributed to that low approval... (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      greatdarkspot, MichaelNY, Lidem89

      ...number.  Weprin reinforced every chance he could that Obama was bad for Israel, which weakened him.  Yes, candidates do matter.

      And as for blaming it all on Obama, only one of the three latest public polls says that.  Don't overweight it.

      GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

      by LordMike on Sun Sep 11, 2011 at 10:03:47 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  What was President Obama's approval rating... (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, LordMike, MichaelNY, Nickers

      In NY-26?

      Candidates do matter. We can't blame this all on David Weprin, obviously, or claim Bob Turner is Republican Jesus. But a more talented, less hackish Democrat probably could have figured out how to string together an election without pouring a fusillade of friendly fire into Obama; even if he had to distinguish himself from the president, whose approval ratings nationwide leave something to be desired, a more talented Democrat could have done so without deliberately distorting and lying about Obama's record, driving his numbers down even further.

      Yes, the national climate is bad, and if the presidential election were held tomorrow, I think Romney would probably beat Obama pretty convincingly, even if I expect Obama would edge Gov. Perry (whom I regard as the likely nominee, even with the Social Security flap). But these numbers in low-turnout special elections in two culturally conservative districts in which the Democrats held closed conventions to coronate candidates who have done a terrible job at, y'know, being Democrats, don't represent uniform swing. Obama isn't going to lose a third of his 2008 voters to the Republicans nationwide next November. He wouldn't even if the election were tomorrow.

      The truth lies, as usual, somewhere between the poles...

      Democrat, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

      by SaoMagnifico on Sun Sep 11, 2011 at 10:07:34 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Thank you (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      greatdarkspot

      Someone had to say it, I just didn't want to come off as too harsh/abrasive at a place where I'm still a newbie.

    •  Weprin has a huge structural advantage (4+ / 0-)

      Under those circumstances, you should be able to win a seat on your own merits that was previously held by your party.

      He was leading in polling at one point, the reversal has to be partly his fault. As a candidate, you don't go from lead to a deficit without some error on your own part

      25, Male, CA-24, DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

      by DrPhillips on Sun Sep 11, 2011 at 10:19:11 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Agree (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, happymisanthropy

      It's like with Coakley.  Everyone blamed her, but if a Republican were in the white house, she would have won the race by 20 points even whhile running a bad campaign.

      "Pain will be inflicted . . . . People are going to do with less." Chris Christie

      by Paleo on Mon Sep 12, 2011 at 04:59:19 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  not trying to spin it away-- (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      happymisanthropy, LordMike

      as you know, I'm not generally on the side of the Obama defenders, but usually on the side of the critics.

      But look, their Congressman, whom they in particular, in specific liked was taken away from them either by his own crappy actions--which would lead them to be disappointed and disillusioned--or by the insistence of Democratic leadership--which would make them plain mad.

      Whichever way Weiner's constituents fell on that issue--blaming him or blaming Dems--they would not fall all over themselves to go and vote for Dems right after that.  The economy and Israel just stoked that up, with a generous addition of Koch money to help stoke the flames.

      I believe this issue started in the local politics of losing Weiner.  The reason this election is being held is because of that brouhaha and nobody voting in it is going to be unaware of that.

      I don't think they sat at home getting steamed about Obama and then stormed off to the polls to give Obama what-for.  An Obama effect is happening in the sense that it's contributing to the general downgrade of the Democratic party brand in that district.  But I think you make a mistake if you make this all about the President.  Remember what's just happened in that district. That's likely what's going to be most important to the people in that district.  Politics is local.

      Nowhere do I understand that national security is a substitute for the law.---Thomas Drake You cannot tell from appearances how things will go.--Winston Churchill

      by SouthernLiberalinMD on Mon Sep 12, 2011 at 07:06:40 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Politics is national, not local, for the most part (0+ / 0-)

        Otherwise states and districts wouldn't all swing in the same direction between years.

        But it's not just NY, it's also NV. Two special elections both going horribly bad for us is worse than one-- especially since the Nevada one is really a usual special election without any major special quirks.

  •  Weprin is a schmuck (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike

    But if a majority of the voters in that district vote for Turner after the crap he's said, they're the bigger schmucks. And that's my unbiased, non-partisan thought of the night. :-)

    Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

    by MichaelNY on Sun Sep 11, 2011 at 10:34:36 PM PDT

  •  Anyone watch Curb Your Enthusiasm tonight (0+ / 0-)

    The violin sign is very telling for tuesday.

  •  So.....In the New Normal a 47 to 4l lead Is Now... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike

    considered a public flogging?  I'm surprised the lead isn't larger w/ Koch's help.

    This may be the first time in a general election that the Democratic incumbents fate was doomed l4 months ahead of time due to a special election in NY.

    So....as NY09 goes, so goes the nation?

  •  It will be a test of organizational strength. (4+ / 0-)

    We have yet to see how effective a GOTV campaign Bob Turner can mount.  And of course how active one WE can mount.  Thus and can't stress this enough if you can do something to help on election day do so!

    I was going to post something about my fears and things I observed  and heard that concerned me greatly.  But that really does not serve any purpose right now.  I don't want to add fuel to the doomsday fire just yet.

    No point in being depressed over someting that hasn't even happened and that we can work to prevent.  The important thing is we do all we can do to help rather than making defeat a self-fulfilling prophecy.

    •  Very good points. (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      SaoMagnifico, MichaelNY

      I don't mean to sound overly optimistic, but it isn't over until the votes have stopped being cast. I haven't seen anything official as far as a turnout estimate. LordMike mentioned a 20 percent figure above, but it's not clear where he's getting that from.

      Yet again, I will say what I've said in a few threads. (By the way, is this really stupid, or are people not seeing it?) Turnout in NY 26 this past spring was about half of what it was in 2010. If it's the same in NY 09, we're looking at about 55,000 voters turnout. That means the victor needs about 28,000 votes. Given all of the Democratic strength in the area, does it seem that far fetched to think Weprin could get that many votes? That's about 42 percent of what Weiner received in 2010, for some perspective.

      Or let's be really, really optimistic for Turner and say that he gets all 43,000 votes he got in 2010. To overcome that with, say, 44,000 votes, Weprin would need about 66 percent of Weiner's votes.

      Or let's take both candidate's totals from 2010, which were 67,000 and 43,000, and chop them in half. We'd then get 33,500 and 21,500 as totals. Let's take a full 20 percent of Wiener's total and give that to Turner, making his total 28,200 to Weprin's 26,800. That'd give Weprin 48.72 percent in a two-person race, basically assuming the third-party candidate isn't a factor. But are that many people going to make the switch to Turner after voting for Weiner? Perhaps. But perhaps not. It's still very close, and if slightly fewer people switched, Weprin would win.

      Again, I might be using the wrong thinking, but if not, you have to figure the Democrats are going through similar scenarios and figuring out a way to turn small but significant numbers of Democrats out. Something as low as 500 to 1,000 voters could make a difference, you know? And unless the Republican party is really lot stronger here than most people realize and/or Turner has some secret turnout weapons, the Democrats should be better.

  •  PPP was in the field 1 day after the mosque mailer (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, LordMike, KingofSpades

    The front of the brochure shows a large, golden-domed Mosque across from Ground Zero and the copy reads “Weprin stands with Obama — and they stand together in support of the mosque at Ground Zero.”

    The Magellan Survey conducted prior to the mosque mailing gave Turner a 4 point lead but still had voters choosing a Democratic over Republican Congress by 5 points.

    This race doesn't look good but I'm not ready to say it is lost either.

  •  Local blames Joe Crowley (4+ / 0-)

    I am from CA, so can't verify the following, which is from a comment on TPM:

    I am a Dem party official in Manhattan and everyone was scratching their heads when the Queens organization (headed by Rep Joe Crowley) chose Weprin as the nominee. The guy is a total putz. He won a seat in the City Council in 2001 b/c he is from Queens political royalty (his father was the State Assembly Speaker in the early 1990s) and came in dead last when he ran for city comptroller in 2009.

    The Queens organization chose Weprin b/c they figured it was a 1 yr job since the seat will be chopped up in redistricting and didn't want someone like Assemblyman Rory Lanceman or former Councilwoman Melinda Katz who could potentially challenge either Crowley or Rep. Gary Ackerman next yr. However, that was a mistake given the fact Weiner only got 58% of the vote in 2012 and this seat has some very conservative areas including Borough Park in Brooklyn.

    Obama will be blamed for this loss but the real blame lies with Joe Crowley who chose an incredibly weak candidate for his own political expediency figuring anyone with a D next to their name should win.

    You can't govern if you can't tell the country where you are taking it. The plot of Obama's presidency has been harder to follow than "Inception." -- F. Rich

    by mbayrob on Mon Sep 12, 2011 at 12:58:25 AM PDT

  •  The next 5 years are going to be an (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    sweeper, happymisanthropy, LordMike

    economic bloodbath that make the previous 4 years look like child's play.

    One might be tempted to let the GOP pay for their errors because the winner of the next election will preside over something akin to Hoover's brilliance.

    But, back in the 30s, we had FDR come to the rescue with stimulus. If we don't have such a leader in the white house in the next go round, we might face something much worse than the 1930s. The next 4 years need policies pushing growth, and the GOP will take us to the edge.

    On the other hand, there' no guarantee that Obama in his second term would provide the leadership this economy really needs.

    It's an impossible vote when you take into account what I think is a given: 5 years of no growth and recession/depression.

    Do you vote for the Democrat to win and for the party to take the blame?

    Do you sigh when the Republicans win and drive the nation over the cliff?

    There are two kinds of people in this world. The kind who divide the world into two kinds of people, and the kind who don't.

    by upstate NY on Mon Sep 12, 2011 at 07:37:24 AM PDT

  •  What happens when The Machine rules (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    mightymouse, LordMike

    Everyone pointing out natl trends, Obama, etc. have solid points. But, bottom line, Weprin is an atrocious candidate for this particular moment. Chosen by the machine with virtually no experience in needing to connect with voters at a visceral level--he's not a bad guy, from the times I've dealt with him. But, just a woeful candidate..."39% of voters rating him positively and 36% negatively" is not a strong place to be, IMHO.

    But, he was chosen by a political machine that did not want anyone who would come from an independent base AND someone who would not fight when the machine erased the district via redistricting. Presto, Weprin.

    Follow me on Twitter @jonathantasini

    Visit Working Life.

    by Tasini on Mon Sep 12, 2011 at 07:47:02 AM PDT

  •  If the DNC is surprised by this, they have their (0+ / 0-)

    heads in the sand.

  •  Good thing Anthony was forced out huh? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    happymisanthropy

    After all, we would have had to put up with a news cycle about his texts before things quieted down.
    The only price we paid for that resignation is one less vote in congress and one huge storyline about the unpopularity of the president just as he is trying to pass a jobs bills.
    Maybe next time we will show a little loyalty to party members who show a little indiscretion?

  •  Goddamn Anthony Weiner (4+ / 0-)

    And his weiner.

  •  Stop spinning this as Obama's fault (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LaurenMonica, KingofSpades, LordMike

    and this has no bearing on the 2012 presidential election.

    This is very demographically monolithic district with a protest vote specifically against current Israel policies and against same-sex marriage.

    The majority of this country is not going to vote for Repub in 2012 just because of these issues.

  •  The district will disappear in 2012 (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    GOPGO2H3LL

    "Rick Perry talks a lot and he's not very bright. And that's a combination I like in Republicans." --- James Carville

    by LaurenMonica on Mon Sep 12, 2011 at 08:02:12 AM PDT

  •  I live in NYC (but not that district) (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    mightymouse, KingofSpades, LordMike

    and every party official I'm in touch with says the same thing:

    This is all about Israel. Period. The fact that Weprin is a lousy candidate doesn't help, but even if he was a good candidate it would probably look the same.

    Weiner was able to fly above Obama's dismal numbers because he's known as a staunch pro-Israel politician and as such wouldn't be tarnished by Obama's perceived hostility to Israel. Weprin enjoys no such reputation.

    Divide and rule, a sound motto. Unite and lead, a better one. ::Goethe::

    by Jeremy10036 on Mon Sep 12, 2011 at 08:09:20 AM PDT

  •  JUST REMEMBER (3+ / 0-)

    JUST REMEMBER THAT A VOTE FOR A REPUBLICON IS A VOTE FOR CANCER, WAR, POVERTY, AND IGNORANCE.

    •  In some people's minds (3+ / 0-)

      voting for cancer, war, poverty and ignorance is BETTER than voting to support a Black President. And the fact that people on this site don't find this one bit disturbing is indeed a problem - a serious problem.

      Instead of gleefully parading these PPP numbers in a front page article as a sign of "disapproval" of President Obama, we should be questioning why is a district willing to vote a Republican who represents nothing but the vilest of all when it comes to domestic/foreign policies, just to make a "statment" on a single issue with Israel/Palestinian issue? This is shameful and should be huge embarrassment (not for President Obama), but for the voters in the district, and the folks on here who don't seem to have a problem with that kind of voting.

      •  If You Wish To Ignore 31% Approval (0+ / 0-)

        Instead of gleefully parading these PPP numbers in a front page article as a sign of "disapproval" of President Obama, we should be questioning why is a district willing to vote a Republican who represents nothing but the vilest of all when it comes to domestic/foreign policies, just to make a "statment" on a single issue with Israel/Palestinian issue? This is shameful and should be huge embarrassment (not for President Obama), but for the voters in the district, and the folks on here who don't seem to have a problem with that kind of voting.

        If you wish to discuss but ignore certain data while blaming the voters, that's your choice, but I think that unless you look at all the data, you're not going to be able to answer the question. Afterall, as has been pointed out upthread that Obama has the same stance as other Presidents, so why is this district polling this way - both for the candidate as well as the President? There may be a correlation or there may not, but you won't know that by simply refusing to even consider looking into it while blaming the voters.

        •  Again my point is missed (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          LordMike

          And your comment about Obama's stance being similar to that of other presidents actually reinforces my point that these voters are in fact the problem. And their bigotry is getting in the way. I'm not going to mince words here. It has very little to with the President and everything to do with a segment of low information, bigoted voters in this particular district who allow their minds to be made up for them by the Ed Koch's, Donald Trumps, etc.   And in case you were not aware, former congressman Mr. Weiner also used race-baiting tactics to win the votes in this district.  

  •  Let me guess... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike

    NY-09 elects Turner.

     A month later NY-09 learns Turner is owned lock, stock & barrel by corporations hence Turner is doing everything in his power to ruin & embarrass  NY-09.  

    Oh yes, how can I forget this one: 24 hours after he is elected,  Turner is on record as wanting to destroy SS.

    But Jan. of 2012  NY-09 is "voicing regret at having elected the reprehensible Turner."

    Then Daily Kos keeps posting crap about how  NY-09 is having buyers' remorse over voting a useless right wing grifter into office.

    How many times are we doomed to see this movie?

    When Fascism comes to America it will be wrapped in excess body fat and carrying a misspelled sign.

    by wyvern on Mon Sep 12, 2011 at 08:23:12 AM PDT

    •  Turner is already on record (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      GOPGO2H3LL

      as wanting to destroy health care for 9/11 volunteers. Apparently that's not stopping him from leading.

      21, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), working in MA-08 for the summer, hopeless Swingnut

      by sapelcovits on Mon Sep 12, 2011 at 08:32:17 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Thanks for ... (0+ / 0-)

        ..making my point so quickly.

        When the citizens of NY-09 begin to bitch about the utter stupidity & corruption of Turner (which will begin to happen a week after Turner is elected), the citizens of NY-09 need to be told to stuff it where the sun don't shine.

        When Fascism comes to America it will be wrapped in excess body fat and carrying a misspelled sign.

        by wyvern on Mon Sep 12, 2011 at 08:41:56 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Well (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          LordMike

          it's not even that he'll get elected and turn around and make them unhappy. Whatever shit he's doing is already out in the open and they're still voting for him. That's just special.

          21, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), working in MA-08 for the summer, hopeless Swingnut

          by sapelcovits on Mon Sep 12, 2011 at 09:15:04 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  I don't agree. (0+ / 0-)

          That's essentially writing them off entirely.

          Unfortunately, not everyone is as engaged with this stuff as we are. That's why, for instance, we need to work on turning voters out rather than simply expecting and hoping they show up. Rather than saying "TOLD YOU SO!!!!" in a really obnoxious way, voters should be reminded of where each candidate stands and helped in connecting the dots if need be.

  •  I campaigned in the Sheepshead Bay (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike

    section of Bklyn last Friday from 2 - 5 pm. Although most not home, I did not hear any overwhelming support for Turner from those I spoke to. Sheepshead Bay is an Orthodox Jewish community.

    What I heard more than anything was -- I'm not voting.

    •  This is why I am not giving up. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike

      If there's a really low level of engagement, it's hard to say what might happen. There's a lot of residual strength for Democrats, and it's not at all clear how well the Republicans can turn out voters in this area. It wouldn't surprise me if Turner won, but I'm not ready to say it's definitely lost for our side.

      Anyway, which type of people said they weren't voting?

  •  This is part of why (0+ / 0-)

    an Obama loss in 2013 might end up being good news for the Dems long term.  If he's gonna depress unrelated Dems' numbers for two more cycles after '13, maybe he can just hang out with his bankster buddies and think sad thoughts about punching hippies as a private citizen.

    The two things Teabaggers hate most are: being called racists; and black people.

    "It takes balls to execute an innocent man." -- anonymous GOP focus group member on Rick Perry

    by Punditus Maximus on Mon Sep 12, 2011 at 08:42:55 AM PDT

    •  I understand this line of reasoning, but I don't (0+ / 0-)

      agree with it at all. You don't have to like Obama or his positions, but there are clear differences between him and the Republicans, even the more moderate and reasonable ones like Romney. And while there's no guarantee that health care reform will be overturned and Medicaid gutted, among other things, it's far more likely that this will happen if that side controls the White House.

  •  sui generis, so don't spin it as a trend (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike

    Lord knows that until last week the president was doing a dreadful job of leading and presenting himself on domestic policy.  That has nothing to do with this district, which has everything to do with right wing Jewish voters bolting the Democratic ticket over a fundamentalist view of Israeli and middle east politics.  And it's a long-term trend; even Weiner's majorities in this seat were starting to get a little slim for comfort.  Of course Democratic candidate selection wasn't helped by the state establishment's determination to get rid of the seat in a few months anyway, but even a strong candidate would have been in trouble.  And it's a condition that applies to, like, five other seats in the entire country.  Don't try to generalize about this one or it will only help the Republicans.

  •  How do you spell... one termer (0+ / 0-)

    and I don't specifically mean the probable winner of this race.

    Obama-Biden in 2012!

    by Frederik on Mon Sep 12, 2011 at 09:39:19 AM PDT

    •  Yea kep it up, and encourage the far right (0+ / 0-)

      Of course the far left and far right are very much alike.

      •  I'm certainly not far left or right (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        LordMike

        but more left of center. But the truth is, as a President and leader, Obama is a big dissapointment to me. I'll certainly vote for him, because the alternative is too unthinkable... and too terrifying. But he hasn't done much to make me enthusiastic... he seems to be not leading but undergoing things...

        Obama-Biden in 2012!

        by Frederik on Mon Sep 12, 2011 at 01:31:08 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  conservative jews the problem in htis district (0+ / 0-)

    I think these conservative Jews who are so swayed by their support of Israel, which I consider just as big as problem as Palestine, are the problem.

    Independents are a problem. The moderate ,conservatives can't make up their minds if they want to jump backward of forward, so they just jump up in the air.

  •  Just the first of many (0+ / 0-)

    ass whippings us progressives will take in the next elections.  It is too late to jettison Obama and he will be the anchor that drags us all to the bottom of the political abyss....

    “I bring reason to your ears, and, in language as plain as ABC, hold up truth to your eyes.” Thomas Paine, December 23, 1776

    by Dose o Reality on Mon Sep 12, 2011 at 10:17:58 AM PDT

  •  guess Weiner, a married man sending pics to (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike

    teenage girls......and  other pics of his cock to taxpayers had no effect?......or are you people really this stupid or hateful?.......which is it?

  •  as far as I can tell (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike

    from reading up on the 9th; this special election is going to be about US foreign policy currently with Israel; Obama got tough about Israel building on the east bank and that policy is unpopular with Jewish voters in the 9th;

    2012 It's not about Obama it's about your Moma. ~ Rev. Al Sharpton

    by anyname on Mon Sep 12, 2011 at 01:34:59 PM PDT

  •  wiki (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike

    654,340 population 9th

    turnout

    2010 - 110,140
    2008 - 120,583
    2006 - 71,762
    2002 - 92,435
    2000 - 144,632
    1998 - 104,522

    2012 It's not about Obama it's about your Moma. ~ Rev. Al Sharpton

    by anyname on Mon Sep 12, 2011 at 01:37:00 PM PDT

    •  It grew very slightly over the decade (0+ / 0-)

      population is now 660,306 as of the 2010 census.

      21, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), working in MA-08 for the summer, hopeless Swingnut

      by sapelcovits on Mon Sep 12, 2011 at 02:34:09 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

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