Therefore, if the smaller side is stubborn, it becomes the captive of the larger side.
Sun Tzu, The Art of War
In matters of creative leadership (the kind that brings about societal transformation), there are many paths to failure. The most footworn involves self-deception. On this road, the leader ignores signs that the group’s work is off-course or meeting serious resistance. Rather than swallow the bitter pills of reality, the leader may consort with sycophants and admirers who whisper delusional reinforcing messages: Don’t worry. You are brilliant. Everything will be fine. We are doing the right things. It will all work out in the end. Despite this happy talk, the leader may have a deep intuition that all is not well. A cancer grows, a fire smolders, something rots. A traitor or trap beckons. There is a premonition of doom.
To address such a situation demands strength of character. The painful truth must be surfaced and confronted before it is too late.
The moment of painful truth for the Democratic Party is upon us right now.
It is no secret that the Democratic Party today has three major factions: conservatives, moderates and the Left. These factions must now unify or suffer an enormous and incalculably expensive defeat.
(Note: The descriptions below are meant to be evocative, not exhaustive or specific to any one voter.)
The conservative wing—venomously despised by the Left—persistently flirts with departure (and also departs) from the Democratic mission. These are the party's swing voters. Many voted for Reagan and the Bushes. They are the ones who become Independents, and sometimes, Republicans. They think war with Iraq was a good idea but poorly executed, that Social Security and Medicare are indeed unsustainable without severe cuts. They favored welfare reform. These Democrats do not object too strongly to tax cuts for the wealthy, because many of them are the wealthy. They believe strongly that the massive bailouts really were necessary to prevent a complete economic collapse. They think bankers and hedge fund managers contribute significantly to the economy. They dislike Obamacare not because it lacks a public option, but because it involves big government strategies. We can recognize that the Left believes these are not “true" Democrats. But they are registered and voted Democrat in 2008. Without their allegiance, you have more and better Republicans.
Then there is the moderate or pragmatic wing. These are the ones passionately committed to Obama. They are willing to tolerate setbacks and major concessions as long as they perceive some meager immediate gains and a real possibility for future progress. They would have preferred a public option, but see healthcare exchanges and the key insurance reforms (e.g., no preexisting-condition discrimination) as incremental improvements. They believe in Keynesian stimulus but see tax cuts as government spending by another means. They want the wars in Iraq and Afganistan to end tomorrow, but believe that a slow, planned and tedious exit is the only feasible way out. They are aware of exactly how Republicans have impeded Obama and willing to cut him some slack.
Finally, we have the Left. These Democrats are furious with Obama, seeing him as no better and no different than a Republican. They want new leadership. The want to move the whole party and nation to the left. They perceive the conservatives as traitors and moderates as wimps or sellouts. They see Obamacare as a setback empowering insurance companies. They see the bailouts not as an effective measure to stop the second Great Depression, but as evidence that Obama is corrupted through ties to Wall Street. They expected Obama’s Justice Department to massively prosecute conservatives for war crimes and financial fraud. They believe fundamentally that wealth redistribution is good and that class warfare is not only inevitable but justified. Conservatives view the Left as the T-party's democratic doppelganger. Moderates view them as the party's conscience.
In 2008, Obama was able not only to stitch these factions together, but to get them to sing Kumbaya. Conservatives believed Obama was a centrist who would advocate near-Republican ideas. Moderates believed Obama was a pragmatist who would work diligently for meaningful reforms over the long haul. Drawn in by the image of Obama as our first black president and moved by his inspiring messages, the Left saw Obama in messianic terms, as a sort of second coming, a transformational leader who would usher in a new age of Democratic hegemony. They wrote things like this:
Many spiritually advanced people I know (not coweringly religious, mind you, but deeply spiritual) identify Obama as a Lightworker, that rare kind of attuned being who has the ability to lead us not merely to new foreign policies or health care plans or whatnot, but who can actually help usher in a new way of being on the planet, of relating and connecting and engaging with this bizarre earthly experiment. These kinds of people actually help us evolve. They are philosophers and peacemakers of a very high order, and they speak not just to reason or emotion, but to the soul.— Mark Moford, SF Chronicle.
[No wonder the Left is just a tiny bit disappointed now.]
Happily believing inconsistent things about Obama, these factions united and elected a minority with the middle name “Hussein” as President of the United States. It was a moment in which Democrats seemed capable of escaping the laws of gravity.
Painful Truth, Part I.
In 2011, the factions are now at each other's throats. We are not gathering strength. We are in a state of chaos. The Left is bitterly angry with moderates and conservatives. The moderates view the Left as having lost sanity. Conservatives are exiting stage right.
Conservatives are very likely to peel off and vote for a candidate like Romney, if they get the chance. Many whom Obama drove into the party from the Right (believing him to be a near-Republican) are thinking about leaving because of his progress on healthcare reform, his following through on some of his commitments to the Left, and their perception that he has failed to revive the economy. They tend to credit the descriptions of Obama that they hear on Fox. They actually think he is too radical and has been captured by the Left. They are not as upset about unemployment as they are about their languishing portfolios.
Meanwhile, the Left vociferously threatens to peel off and either not vote or vote for Naderesque candidates or other protest candidates incapable of winning. They view Obama as a traitor and a fraud because he was not able to use his power to enact the complete progressive dream immediately. They are also furious with his insistence on courteous, rational negotiation involving concessions. They want Obama to demonize the opposition and fight, not "get along." They want a leader who metaphorically brings a gun to a knife fight. They view all of Obama’s tactics as evidence that he is a traitor to real democratic values. They ignore or give short shrift to the chaos and crisis that confronted Obama upon his entry to the Presidency. Their view is simple: He promised to change everything. He failed. Now they are intent upon expressing their boiling anger and starting over, even if it takes several centuries and requires the nation to regress to feudalism in the process.
That leaves the pragmatic moderates. They will vote, but not in sufficient numbers to get Obama elected. Because they sympathize with the Left, they are also dangerously susceptible of being sapped of energy by the Left's ongoing painful harangue. This is why they begin to lash out at the Obama criticism. As they begin to mobilize, their brothers and sisters on the Left call them cowards and traitors.
As a result of the great unraveling within the Democratic Party, the risk of handing Republicans another massive victory in 2012 is growing exponentially.
Painful Truth, Part II
How can this be happening? We like to tell ourselves it is because the other factions (whichever group we are not within) are evil or stupid. But that's not the reason.
We are all capable of believing things which we know to be untrue, and then, when we are finally proved wrong, impudently twisting the facts so as to show that we were right. Intellectually, is possible to carry this process for an indefinite time: the only check on it is that sooner or later a false belief bumps up against solid reality, usually on a battlefield.
--George Orwell
Conservatives have told themselves a terrible lie. The lie is that everything will be OK if they put the country back in Republicans hands.
Left wing democrats have also told themselves a terrible lie. The lie is that Obama is no different than a Republican and that the pathway to eventual progress lies through descent into right-wing hell via the election of Romney or (God-I-beg-you-not) Perry. The lie is that after the nation suffers through another right-wing catastrophe, it will become feasible, with the rest of the party (oh, and also the rest of the nation) populated by conservatives and moderates, to elect someone like Bernie Sanders President of the United States. The lie is that a new generation (another complete decade?) of Republican crimes and failed leadership will somehow spur a grassroots progressive revolution. The lie is that candidates with views more stridently and transparently to the left of Obama will somehow transform (rather than alienate) conservatives and moderates. If that were the case, Ralph Nader would already be President. When Democrats lose national elections, the nation accelerates its rightward shift. The pendulum is a myth.
Moderates have also told themselves a terrible lie. The lie is that conservatives and the Left will most likely vote for Obama. As of this moment, they most likely will not. Conservatives are not truly committed to democratic values. On the other hand, left wing Democrats are stridently committed to the party's core political goals. For this reason, they are prepared to sacrifice the organizational welfare of the party to achieve its true political ends. They are willing to lose the current war to gain ground in a future war of the imagination. This is sort of like a starving man turning away donuts in order to avoid getting fat.
Painful Truth, Part III
Can the Democratic Party afford to suffer this impending doom? It cannot. Democrats do not agree with one another about all of their goals, strategies and tactics. But we can agree on one thing. Republican leadership in the White House is not something the nation can afford to do again.
We know what will happen when the Executive Branch is handed over to the right. We have seen this movie before, remember? We have seen Reagan. We have seen Bush I and Bush II. We cannot afford this:
More deregulation leading to a massive crimes and market failures.
Unmitigated corruption in which the work of federal agencies is sold to the highest bidder.
The unraveling of our admittedly limited gains (all of them).
Deficit-and-debt driven war serving corporate interests and entailing massive new atrocities (ramping up in Afghanistan and Iraq, new fronts in Iran and North Korea and… wherever else you can imagine).
Exploding deficit and debt leading to the complete destruction of the federal government as an engine for social justice and change.
Even more rapidly increasing inequality (if that is imaginable).
The end (rather than the diminution) of social security and medicare.
The abandonment and destruction of the middle class and the poor.
These outcomes cannot possibly form the basis for a solution. No rational person in the entire spectrum left of center can accept these outcomes. Of course the Left will say, "It's already happening." But speed and momentum matter. If we are in a car heading toward a cliff, we do not put the pedal to the metal.
It would be like saying:
To a cancer patient, "Let's see if we can spread your cancer, so we can spur your immune system into action." No.
To a person whose house has caught fire, “Let’s spread the fire around a little so the fire department will see it and get here more quickly.” No.
To someone who has robbed your wallet at gun point, “Let’s go to my ATM now.”
No. No. No.
Moment of Painful Truth
Collectively, conservatives, moderates, and left wing Democrats (or real Democrats, if you prefer) must unite. Immediately, decisively, energetically. Together we have to get off the path of self-deception that leads inexorably to self-destruction.
Seeing Barack Obama Clearly
Yes, Obama is guilty of soaring, vague rhetoric. (Moment of clarity: In this political culture, how else could this particular candidate have become President of the United States?) That is his worst crime, but one committed by every successful politician since the dawn of politics itself. As for his specific policy positions, he has been relatively plain speaking and transparent. The major factions of the party have each projected upon Obama what they wished to see, but those willing to read the fine print must recognize that he has advanced carefully nuanced positions designed primarily to keep faith with independents. This is a man capable of gently throwing his radical black pastor under the bus (while not disowning him) along with his prejudiced (but dearly beloved) white grandmother. This is a man who favors civil unions but carefully tiptoes around gay marriage. This is a man who, accepting the Peace Prize, delivers a speech embracing the necessity for war. Obama is and always has been a centrist and a pragmatist with extremely calculated policy views designed to maintain dialogue with and support from as many electoral factions as possible. It could not be otherwise; this is how he managed to get himself elected President. This is how he managed to engage massive numbers of new Democrats, including many former Republicans.
We Still Time Have Time to Unite, But the Window is Closing Fast
Let us not destroy the very effort wish to preserve.
The last hope for more and better Democrats lies in a continuing constructive dialogue between the factions of the Democratic Party. The Left and the moderate wings of the Party must recognize that the path to long term political victories—e.g., the ending of wars, the introduction of a public option, the stabilization (and even expansion) of social programs, and the drive toward increasing equality—lies not in being more strident and inflexible but rather in rational dialogue to increase the base by moving centrists left on specific issues and local elections. We must elect true progressives locally and in Congress. We must engage in dialogue that influences how people think about specific issues involving health care, forgeign policy, defense and education. Moving the entire country to the left cannot be done through the election of one man as President, no matter who. In the meantime, our best hope (and the central benefit of an Obama Presidency) is that we will avoid the terrible alternative.