In Kentucky, Republicans have held a majority in the State Senate since the 1998 elections. As such, Republicans had a voice in the 2001-2002 redistricting process. Then-Speaker Jody Richards (D-Bowling Green) submitted a Democratic map of the Senate and the House with the intent being to play hardball. However, due to internal division and then-Governor Paul Patton being too soft with the Republicans (no wonder State Senator John Rose referred to him as "Puddin' Paul Patton" back in 1995), the effort was deflated and both chambers each drew their own maps. Republicans augmented their narrow majority to something more secure and Democrats drew a map to ensure they would hold the chamber for a decade, which they did. Currently, the Kentucky legislature has a 59-41 Democratic majority in the State House and a 23-15 Republican majority in the State Senate.
After my last foray into Kentucky Congressional redistricting, I decided to reapportion the State Senate map. What I drew for this diary is favorable to Republicans, but not as much as the current map. Next time I shall draw a Democratic gerrymander.
More below the fold.
Kentucky Senate
Section 1: Western Kentucky
SD-01 (blue): Ken Winters (R-Murray)
This district does not change at all. Still something the Democrats can pick up, especially if Winters retires (which is rumored). Ex-Senator and ex-con Carroll Hubbard is running here, but I hope the Democrats put a stiff primary challenge against this flawed candidate.
SD-02 (green): Bob Leeper (I-Paducah)
Don't let the "I" fool you as Leeper is a de facto Republican. Democrats have run against him many times and always come close, even in 2010. It's like a Sisyphean task to defeat him. This district picks up Livingston County, which does not do much partisan-wise. It doesn't weaken Leeper, though.
SD-03 (dark magenta): Joey Pendleton (D-Hopkinsville)
No changes. Pendleton is pretty secure.
SD-04 (red): Dorsey Ridley (D-Princeton)
Takes in McLean and part of Hopkins County. Democrats are secure here too.
SD-05 (gold): Carroll Gibson (R-Leitchfield)
Retracts some from Grayson. Democrats might be able to win here, but they did not even contest it in 2008.
SD-06 (teal): Jerry Rhoads (D-Madisonville)
This district becomes tricky as it picks up Republican-leaning Butler and Edmonson counties. I would say it's LEAN D, but my knowledge on this region is limited.
SD-08 (slate blue): Joe Bowen (R-Sorgho)
Bowen's narrow win in 2010 was a fluke. This district now picks up heavily-Dem Hancock county and part of Ohio County. This needs to be on the top of the KY Dems target list because Owensboro should not be represented by a Republican.
SD-10 (deep pink): Dennis Parrett (D-Elizabethtown)
Parrett, a conservative Democrat, was the only Democrat in last year's Senate races to defeat an incumbent Republican. This district changes very little aside from retracting a little from Jefferson County. That will be no problem for Parrett since he lost the portion of Jefferson County in this district.
SD-32 (orange-red): Mike Wilson (R-Bowling Green)
This district was picked up by a Democrat in one of the 2009 Senate special elections, but lost in 2010 by a 10 percent spread. However, because this district loses Republican-leaning Butler County, it becomes an even more tempting prospect for Democrats.
Section 2: Jefferson County
SD-37 (black): Perry Clark (D-Louisville)
This district is in black because he is black-listed. Perry Clark is a LaRouche Democrat (a LaRouche Democrat is essentially a cross between Huey Long and Alex Jones) who said in this interview that the President needs to resign or be impeached:
I tried to screw him over by pushing his district further into Louisville. This makes his district more Dem and probably puts him at greater risk of a primary challenge. Let's hope one materializes.
SD-33 (royal blue): Gerald Neal (D-Louisville)
VAP: 51.2% African-American
Neal gave up some heavily-AA precincts to Clark and has to eat up whiter precincts. It is still the bluest Senate seat in all Kentucky.
SD-35 (dark orchid): Denise Angel (D-Louisville)
Has to become slightly more suburban, but is still safe for Angel.
SD-19 (yellow-green): Tim Shaughnessy (D-Louisville)
Virtually no change to this district. Still strongly Democratic.
SD-36 (orange): Julie Denton (R-Louisville)
This district is still based in the Republican eastern suburbs. Democrats have little chance here.
SD-38 (medium aquamarine): Dan Seum (R-Louisville)
Also sees little change and is based in the southern suburbs. Not as red as SD-36, but still not enough.
Section 3: Central Kentucky
SD-20 (pink): Paul Hornback (R-Shelbyville)
this district has to drop some of Shelby County due to population growth. Still pretty strongly Republican.
SD-07 (dark grey): Julian Carroll (D-Frankfort)
Former Governor Julian Carroll (geez, why so many Carrolls?) may have to sweat some in this district. It picks up part of Shelby County and Mercer County, but it still is anchored by heavily-Dem Frankfort. Hopefully, he can fulfill his promise that he will outserve David Williams in the Senate.
SD-21 (maroon): Damon Thayer (R-Georgetown)
This is a new district and Thayer lives here. However, he will have a hell of a hard time here because this district contains Dem-tilting Scott County, Woodford County, and northern Fayette County. A prime Dem pick-up opportunity is right here.
SD-13 (dark salmon): Kathy Stein (D-Lexington)
This district is a Lexington vote sink and is SAFE D.
SD-12 (cornflower blue): Alice Forgy Kerr (R-Lexington)
This district changes very little, but Kerr is likely doomed anyway. Her district is tilting away from her as Lexington grows and the county shifts leftward. In 2006, she won by a 7 percent spread. In 2010, she won by a measly 2 percent spread.
SD-22 (siena): Tom Buford (R-Nicholasville)
Garrard and Jessamine counties both lean Republican pretty strongly. Dems have little to no shot here.
SD-26 (grey): Ernie Harris (R-Crestwood)
This district lost some of its eastern counties, but that make it more Republican.
SD-28 (plum): R.J. Palmer (D-Winchester)
The counties here are full of Yellow Dog Democrats that have yet to fade. Palmer is safe.
Section 4: Northern Kentucky
SD-17 (dark slate blue): OPEN
This used to be part of Damon Thayer's district, but now is one of its own. A Dem could win it, but Southern Kenton and this region in general is somewhat Republican so I would say LEAN R.
SD-11 (chartruese): John Schickel (R-Union)
This district is now entirely within Boone County (where the infamous Ark Park is being slated to be built). This county voted for Ernie Fletcher in 2007 so it's pretty strongly Republican.
SD-23 (aquamarine): Jack Westwood (R-Erlanger)
Westwood recently announced his retirement so this district will be open in 2012. Westwood won by a 2 percent spread in 2008 so it's definitely competitive. Here, I drew it to take in some more Cincinnati suburbs, from Campbell County. I would rate it TILT R.
SD-24 (indigo): Katie Stine (R-Southgate)
This district doesn't change much other than taking in Robertson County and part of Bracken County from SD-18. That barely moves the needle, though.
SD-18 (yellow): Robin Webb (D-Grayson)
It picks up Fleming County and still favors Democrats.
Part 5: Southeast Kentucky
SD-09 (cyan): David Givens (R-Greensburg)
Very Republican. Next.
SD-16 (lime): David Williams (R-Burkesville)
No wonder David Williams loves Tennessee. His district runs right along their common border. No chance of a Democrat winning here, this is very red.
SD-15 (dark orange): Vernie McGaha (R-Russell Springs)
Too red to win. That is all.
SD-14 (olive): Jimmy Higdon (R-Lebanon)
This area is pretty swingy, but Democrats did not contest it in 2010.
SD-34 (lime green): Jared Carpenter (R-Berea)
Another extremely red area. In 2007, Ernie Fletcher won 77% of the vote in Jackson County alone.
SD-25 (sea shell): Robert Stivers (R-Manchester), Tom Jensen (R-London)
Jensen was in the original SD-21, but that was cut up and moved to Scott County in my map. This district is on the edge of the Republican bedrock in south-central Kentucky and is thus LIKELY R.
SD-30 (light coral): Brandon Smith (R-Hazard)
This district could be open to Dems, but Smith won by a 2:1 ratio last year. I guess it depends on recruiting.
SD-29 (dark sea green): Johnny Ray Turner (D-Drift)
This district sees little change and is still anchored by heavily Yellow Dog counties.
SD-31 (khaki): Ray Jones (D-Pikesville)
The horn of Kentucky is also probably the most coal-rich region in the commonwealth. This district has to pick up part of Letcher County to make up for population loss, but is still heavily Democratic.
SD-27 (spring green): Walt Blevins (D-West Liberty)
Last, but not least we have Blevins' district, a snake that traverses a string of what is probably the most heavily Yellow Dog counties that can be found anywhere in the nation. One county, Elliott, has 4725 reigstered Democrats and 171 registered Republicans.
That's all for now! Next up: "Unbridled Spirit: Kentucky Senate Democratic Gerrymander".