So, I could have been doing other things this evening, but instead I have spent the past several hours working on a map of New York in the post–9/13/2011 era.
I don't know what Democrats and Republicans will end up deciding to do in this decennial round of legislative deal-cutting over redistricting, but I followed five basic assumptions rooted in New York tradition:
1. One incumbent of each party will be eliminated, i.e. put in an unfriendly district with their home territory chopped roughly between other unfriendly districts.
2. This elimination will be done by deathmatching two incumbents of the same party in each instance, with the clear advantage to the more senior incumbent, i.e. the one who is not getting shamelessly screwed over.
3. One downstate incumbent and one upstate incumbent will be eliminated.
4. The Democratic Assembly and the Republican Senate will ultimately come to an agreement on redistricting that will involve the Assembly being gerrymandered for the Democrats, the Senate being gerrymandered for the Republicans, and the congressional map being gerrymandered for incumbents in general.
5. Communities of interest will be respected...ish.
The map follows over the fold.
Because New York is currently a 21-8 split and two incumbents from each party are getting combined, the idea is that the map will be a 20-7, though in truth a few districts will be competitive no matter what. New York has a tradition of that as well.
I'll go by districts, with additional map showing the New York City area and upstate New York.
NY-01 (blue): Rep. Timothy Bishop (D) - 52% Obama, 47% McCain
NY-02 (green): Rep. Steve Israel (D) - 54.6% Obama, 44.6% McCain
NY-03 (purple): Reps. Peter T. King (R), Bob Turner (R) - 46.2% Obama, 53% McCain
NY-04 (red): Rep. Carolyn McCarthy (D) - 60.8% Obama, 38.4% McCain
NY-05 (goldenrod): Rep. Gary Ackerman (D) - 68.2% Obama, 31.1% McCain [32.9% plurality white]
NY-06 (teal): Rep. Gregory W. Meeks (D) - 78.5% Obama, 21.1% McCain [39.4% plurality black]
NY-07 (dark gray): Rep. Joseph Crowley (D) - 69% Obama, 30.2% McCain [32.1% plurality white]
NY-08 (slate blue): Rep. Edolphus Towns (D) - 93.6% Obama, 5.9% McCain [51.5% majority black]
NY-09 (cyan): Rep. Yvette Clarke (D) - 85.9% Obama, 13.6% McCain [50.7% majority black]
NY-10 (magenta): Rep. Nydia M. Velázquez (D) - 82.2% Obama, 17.1% McCain [53.9% majority Latino]
NY-11 (chartreuse): Rep. Carolyn B. Maloney (D) - 79.3% Obama, 19.7% McCain
NY-12 (cornflower blue): Rep. Michael Grimm (R) - 42.3% Obama, 57% McCain
NY-13 (dark salmon): Rep. Jerrold Nadler (D) - 82.3% Obama, 16.8% McCain
NY-14 (olive): Rep. Charles Rangel (D) - 94% Obama, 5.4% McCain [54.7% majority Latino]
NY-15 (dark orange): Rep. José Serrano (D) - 94% Obama, 5.8% McCain [63.5% majority Latino]
NY-16 (lime): Rep. Eliot L. Engel (D) - 66.2% Obama, 33.1% McCain [44.5% plurality white]
NY-17 (dark slate blue): Rep. Nita M. Lowey (D) - 62.2% Obama, 36.9% McCain
NY-18 (yellow): Rep. Nan Hayworth (R) - 50.9% Obama, 48% McCain
NY-19 (yellow-green): Rep. Maurice Hinchey (D) - 59.4% Obama, 39% McCain
NY-20 (pink): Rep. Christopher Gibson (R) - 51% Obama, 47.1% McCain
NY-21 (maroon brown): Reps. Paul Tonko (D), William Owens (D) - 57.9% Obama, 40.3% McCain
NY-22 (sienna brown): Rep. Richard Hanna (R) - 48.7% Obama, 49.6% McCain
NY-23 (aquamarine): Rep. Ann-Marie Buerkle (R) - 56.6% Obama, 41.5% McCain
NY-24 (indigo): Rep. Tom Reed (R) - 45.1% Obama, 53.4% McCain
NY-25 (pale violet-red): Rep. Louise Slaughter (D) - 58.6% Obama, 40.1% McCain
NY-26 (gray): Rep. Brian Higgins (D) - 57.3% Obama, 41.1% McCain
NY-27 (spring green): Rep. Kathy Hochul (D) - 51.7% Obama, 46.6% McCain
Whew. That's a lot of images. Hope I didn't crash any of y'all's internet browsers. I would have the traditional red/blue partisan maps for your viewing pleasure, but DRA is threatening to blow up my laptop with how much memory it's consuming right now, so I better not tempt fate.
I expect Republicans could make strong plays for NY-01 and NY-27, with NY-02 and NY-26 not being entirely out of play in a good cycle for Team Red. A competent Democrat would arguably start out favored in NY-23, though Republicans in nearby states like Pennsylvania have held demographically similar districts won by then-Sen. Barack Obama in 2008 by similar margins for several terms; Democrats could also contest NY-18 and NY-20, with a chance at flipping NY-03 and NY-22 in a Democratic wave election or a low-turnout special election.
The most Democratic district on the map is narrowly NY-14, which Obama won in 2008 by an 88.6-point margin; the runner-up is NY-15, which he won by an 88.2-point margin.
The most Republican district on the map is NY-12, which Sen. John McCain won in 2008 by a 14.7-point margin; the runner-up is NY-24, which he won by an 8.3-point margin.
Thoughts?