Susan Bysiewicz; Chris Murphy
Quinnipiac. 9/8-13. Registered voters (No trendlines):
Chris Murphy (D): 36
Susan Bysiewicz (D): 26
William Tong (D): 1
Undecided: 35
(MoE: ±4.6%)
I'm pleased to see Chris Murphy—who is one of my personal favorite politicians out there—leading in the Democratic primary, though the large numbers of undecideds obviously mean this is still anyone's race. However, Murphy's 10-point lead is a good bit better than the two-point edge he had in PPP's poll of the race back in March, which I believe is the only other public survey we've seen.
I'm also amused to see state Sen. William Tong at a comical 1 percent, though I don't expect that state of affairs to last long. Tong, an avowed Joe Lieberman acolyte, has been pretty adept at raising money in the early going—something former SoS Susan Bysiewicz most certainly has not been. So I wouldn't be surprised if she fades and Tong moves up over the next year.
Linda McMahon (R): 50
Chris Shays (R): 35
Undecided: 12
(MoE: ±5.4%)
The results of the GOP primary are almost more gratifying. I've always loathed Chris Shays—perhaps the exemplar of the faux moderate, and a whiner to boot—so it's reassuring to see Linda McMahon already pulverizing him. What's more, as you'll see below, McMahon is manifestly less electable than Shays, so it's the best of both worlds for Democrats. Shays says he'll formally declare his bid in October, when he steps down from a federal government post in DC, but given his recent statements, I wouldn't be surprised if he abandons the idea altogether. I just don't see a path to victory for him in the primary, particularly with McMahon already at 50 percent in a two-way race.
Chris Murphy (D): 49
Linda McMahon (R): 38
Undecided: 11
Chris Murphy (D): 43
Chris Shays (R): 37
Undecided: 17
Susan Bysiewicz (D): 46
Linda McMahon (R): 38
Undecided: 12
Susan Bysiewicz (D): 40
Chris Shays (R): 42
Undecided: 16
(MoE: ±2.8%)
McMahon's favorables overall are 38-45, but Republicans love her (67-17). Shays, meanwhile, is at 41-14 statewide, but members of his own party love him a lot less (51-11) than they do McMahon—and that will only get worse after she unleashes a firehose of money at him. Shays will find himself in the difficult, Romney-like position of trying to convince the GOP electorate that he's the better general election candidate, but examples of that working anywhere in any Republican primary in recent years are indeed few and far between.
Meanwhile, Murphy is viewed more positively than Bysiewicz (38-16 vs. 39-27), which likely goes toward explaining his better numbers, especially against Shays, whom Bysiewicz actually trails. While Bysiewicz has been trying to sell herself as more progressive than Murphy, it doesn't seem to be working (see primary numbers above)—which doesn't surprise me, given Murphy's excellent progressive credentials. Unlikely Shays, therefore, I think Murphy will be able to make the electability argument, but I'm not sure he even has to, since the argument pretty much makes itself.
Coda: Joe Lieberman's job approvals have soared back into positive territory! He's now at 51-40, up from 41-45 in June. Maybe he'll reconsider retirement! Feel the Joementum!
P.S. In case you haven't noticed, Quinnipiac started releasing demographic breakdowns for its polls a few months ago. You can find them at the very bottom of each survey release where it says "Demographic Summary." Here's the link for this poll (warning: it will open a Word doc). The party ID breakdown here is 33 D, 21 R, 39 I. That's very different from PPP, which had it as 47-26-26.