USA Today/Gallup (PDF). 9/15-18. Republicans. MoE ±6% (
8/17-21):
Rick Perry: 31 (29)
Mitt Romney: 24 (17)
Ron Paul: 13 (13)
Michele Bachmann: 5 (10)
For some reason known only to them, USA Today didn't release the full numbers, so it's not clear where the other candidates stand, but with Bachmann at 5 percent in fourth, that probably doesn't matter: None of them are breaking through.
It's probably the best polling news Mitt Romney has seen in quite some time. Although he still trails Perry, he gained back some ground that he's lost, and narrowed the gap to seven points. He hasn't hit his previous high—27 percent—but he's not collapsing in the same way that Michele Bachmann has. Ron Paul continues to hold steady in the low teens, but he's going to need to prove he can grow his support if he wants to convince anyone he can be a real player in the campaign.
The poll also tested heads-up match ups between President Obama and both Perry and Romney, and Romney fared better (the MoE here is ±3%):
Romney: 49
Obama: 47
Meanwhile:
Obama: 50
Perry: 45
You can see where this is headed, at least for the next phase of the campaign. Mitt Romney will make the case that he's the electable guy, and that Republicans should choose him over Perry even if they like Perry more. Perry, meanwhile, will try to remind Republicans that John McCain made the same exact argument in 2008 on his way to an electoral college drubbing.