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Quick Update -

Only playoff spot in realistic doubt is AL Wildcard.  

If Boston scores 18 runs a game going forward, they are in ...
If they give up 9 a game, they are out ...

As of today ...

Boston Wins WC - 80.33%
Tie - 10.46%
TB Wins WC - 9.21%

Updates tomorrow ...

Playing Baltimore rather than New York is a huge benefit to Boston.  This assumes the Yankees actually are playing to win.  This is a reasonible assumption, as baseball is not football.  You want your players to play.  Pitchers wan to pitch every fifth day.  Tweaking the rotation will probably happen while Tampa Bay is playing the Blue Jays.

Poll

Who will win the AL Wild Card

52%18 votes
47%16 votes

| 34 votes | Vote | Results

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Comment Preferences

  •  Tip Jar (4+ / 0-)

    I am a statistician, not a magician although we are easily confused. I guess that explains why people keep trying to tie me in chains and place me under water.

    by Edge PA on Tue Sep 20, 2011 at 10:25:05 AM PDT

  •  Tigers are fer reals (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    camlbacker, Edge PA, moose67

    I'll just add that whichever team faces the Tigers is gonna get spanked. Verlander and Fister are pitching lights out.

    •  That's what everyone thought last year about the (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Edge PA, howd

      Phillies...............right up till the last game with the Giants.  Funny thing happened on the way the World Series.

      "There is nothing harder to dislodge than entrenched privilege." Jake Blumgart

      by CarolinNJ on Tue Sep 20, 2011 at 10:41:52 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Except (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        dannyinla

        The Tigers look more like the Giants than the Yankees or Red Soxs.

        I am a statistician, not a magician although we are easily confused. I guess that explains why people keep trying to tie me in chains and place me under water.

        by Edge PA on Tue Sep 20, 2011 at 12:23:30 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Hey, Edge PA, good to see you in sports form again (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Edge PA

    Got an opinion about Michael Vick you can share in a public forum?

    "There is nothing harder to dislodge than entrenched privilege." Jake Blumgart

    by CarolinNJ on Tue Sep 20, 2011 at 10:43:27 AM PDT

    •  Second Chances ... (0+ / 0-)

      It is hard to realize that your friends growing up are no longer your friends in adult life.

      He went to jail, went bankrupt and is still paying for his mistakes.

      When healthy he is the best player in the league.  But with his style he cannot stay healthy.

      The Eagles need to realize this and play him accordingly.  Save him for the playoffs as much as possible.

      I am a statistician, not a magician although we are easily confused. I guess that explains why people keep trying to tie me in chains and place me under water.

      by Edge PA on Tue Sep 20, 2011 at 12:26:14 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Best player or best athlete? People fall in love (0+ / 0-)

        with athleticism but if sheer innate talent were the measure, Joe Don Looney would have the biggest statue in the Hall.  As a Giants (briefly) teammate commented, "Never was man more aptly  named."  Vick is extravagantly talented, even by pro sports standards, but he got by so long on that, he never bothered with the acquired skills parts.  When he said in a televised interview that, "I was born to play quarterback," my mind threw back, "When did you ever play quarterback?"  Ilie Năstase, Nasty Năstase, comes to mind as maybe the, um, exemplar(?) of the breed.  Wildly talented Romanian tennis player who started to practice late in his career because his age overtook his talent and found he couldn't do it.  He just didn't have whatever it takes to work a practice routine.  Ran unsuccessfully for mayor of Bucharest in 1996.  Boy, would that have been wild.  But I'll say this for Năstase, he wouldn't have been the sneaking hypocrite type.

        "There is nothing harder to dislodge than entrenched privilege." Jake Blumgart

        by CarolinNJ on Tue Sep 20, 2011 at 01:05:14 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Since he came back (0+ / 0-)

          and actually has been working on his craft, I would say best player ....

          Manning is hurt so no arguement there ...

          Brady and Rodgers have a lot more pieces and neither is the threat to run that Vick is ...

          I would accept any offensive lineman you name as a better player ... (says the former offensive lineman)

          I am a statistician, not a magician although we are easily confused. I guess that explains why people keep trying to tie me in chains and place me under water.

          by Edge PA on Tue Sep 20, 2011 at 01:48:25 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  I wouldn't say that. Let's not argue about it. (0+ / 0-)

            My all time is Walter Payton.  He looked so damn effortless.  My favorite Eagle is Harold Carmichael for a block he made to save a running back trapped in the backfield and about to be pulled down from behind.  Carmichael was way down field when the play broke down but he motored back to behind the line of scrimmage, squeezed between two defense players, and threw himself in front of a third guy reaching to grab the running back's jersey.  What a play!

            Bobby Jones wasn't bad, either.  Back-handed, running from behind to catch up shot block.  Marc Iavaroni spreading his arms and backing up to shove three opposing players away from the basket so Moses Malone could take the rebound untouched.  Athleticism doesn't impress here.  Talent is cheap.

            You want an athlete who looked like a dumpy derelict?  Try Bobby Layne.  Hell of a quarterback, couldn't carry Vick's shoelaces as an athlete.  The guy even walked funny.  If you had met him in civvies, you'd have taken him for the neighborhood elbow bender, which he reportedly was.

            "There is nothing harder to dislodge than entrenched privilege." Jake Blumgart

            by CarolinNJ on Tue Sep 20, 2011 at 02:54:49 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Carmichael (0+ / 0-)

              Grew up around DC so say him play alot.  Don't remember that specific play, but not surprised.

              Sonny Jergason, surprised he didn't smoke and drink while dropping back to pass ... very under-rated nationally ... mainly because he is a drunk.

              Can't argue with Walter Payton.  Have a few others I would consider (Sayers, Sanders, Marcus Allen ... think about what his numbers would have been if Al Davis hadn't burried him for years ...)

              But if I had to pick a QB today, I would take Vick.

              I am a statistician, not a magician although we are easily confused. I guess that explains why people keep trying to tie me in chains and place me under water.

              by Edge PA on Thu Sep 22, 2011 at 09:25:45 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  Right about Jurgensen. The press likes it's stud (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                Edge PA

                athletes studly.

                "There is nothing harder to dislodge than entrenched privilege." Jake Blumgart

                by CarolinNJ on Thu Sep 22, 2011 at 10:41:00 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  Your comment made me think (0+ / 0-)

                  Is John Kruk in better shape as an ESPN analysis than he was when playing for the Phils?

                  I am a statistician, not a magician although we are easily confused. I guess that explains why people keep trying to tie me in chains and place me under water.

                  by Edge PA on Fri Sep 23, 2011 at 05:25:40 AM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  Man, what a question! Years ago, a survey (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    Edge PA

                    concluded that baseballers were the worst conditioned athletes of all the major sports.  Of course, then I think of Derrick Coleman.  Hire him for a season and feel lucky to get 30 games out of him.  I don't know about Kruk.  What do you think?

                    Are you a sabermetrician?  Read an article about them.  Their average pay is something like 30 thousand a year.  Peanuts.  A club's towel budget is bigger than that.

                    "There is nothing harder to dislodge than entrenched privilege." Jake Blumgart

                    by CarolinNJ on Fri Sep 23, 2011 at 11:28:34 AM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  I am a statistican (1+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      CarolinNJ

                      Bradley EfronI play with stats and baseball as a hobby, not an obsession.  Bill James' work is excellent.  Rob Neyer is excellent.  Fan Graphes is excellent.

                      90% of the blogs with some guy half understanding those guys and an Excel spread sheet bothers me.  They make people trust numbers less because the blogs are talking out of their * and it is obviously they are clue less.

                      Any good statistican will tell you two things.  Every predicition has a confidence intervaul.  Every predicition is only as good as its data.

                      Also the reason that statisticians who work for MLB make next to nothing is that so many people are will to do the heavy lifting for free.

                      Bradley Efron is the guy who figured out how to use a computer and statistics at the same time.  He consults with the SF Giants for fun.  He works for nothing and is one of the top 3 statisicians in the world, how do you justify paying anyone else anything?

                      I am a statistician, not a magician although we are easily confused. I guess that explains why people keep trying to tie me in chains and place me under water.

                      by Edge PA on Fri Sep 23, 2011 at 02:10:16 PM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  So that is where my first attempt at linking went! (1+ / 0-)
                        Recommended by:
                        CarolinNJ

                        Forgot on of my favorite all time quotes.

                        "I am not an athelte - I am a baseball player" - John Kruk

                        I am a statistician, not a magician although we are easily confused. I guess that explains why people keep trying to tie me in chains and place me under water.

                        by Edge PA on Fri Sep 23, 2011 at 02:15:30 PM PDT

                        [ Parent ]

                      •  I have one of James' books. Interesting read. (0+ / 0-)

                        I wonder how many fans know that the baseball HoF doesn't belong to baseball?

                        "There is nothing harder to dislodge than entrenched privilege." Jake Blumgart

                        by CarolinNJ on Fri Sep 23, 2011 at 02:36:16 PM PDT

                        [ Parent ]

                        •  Raising Hand (0+ / 0-)

                          I didn't know that ...

                          Have a good day!

                          I am a statistician, not a magician although we are easily confused. I guess that explains why people keep trying to tie me in chains and place me under water.

                          by Edge PA on Mon Sep 26, 2011 at 06:08:28 AM PDT

                          [ Parent ]

  •  Grabbed the Boston papers this morning... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Edge PA

    I wouldn't say people are freaking out but there is unrest in Red Sox Nation.  I think the Sox will capture the WC in the end but they're giving fans serious anxiety pangs, myself included.

    I like the Rays.  Joe Maddon is a great manager.  There's nothing to dislike about that team and never has been.  I just hoped when they left town on Sunday they took Carl Crawford back with them.

    "All men having power ought to be distrusted to a certain degree" -- James Madison

    by paulitics on Tue Sep 20, 2011 at 11:10:53 AM PDT

  •  I've finally given up on the Angels (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Edge PA, johnbrown12962

    they had a better season than many expected but now it'd take a colossal tank job by Texas and that won't happen.

    So now I officially don't care who wins. Anyone but Texas I guess. No, anyone but Texas and Boston..maybe New York too. So hopefully Tampa gets in, otherwise I'd be rooting for Detroit in the AL, if you can call it "rooting".

    In the NL I guess it's Philly, Arizona, Milwaukee and who? Atlanta? I haven't looked in awhile. I'd probably prefer Arizona, although that Phillies rotation is so spectacular it's fun to watch.

    "Things are never so bad they can't get worse" - Dallasdoc

    by Shahryar on Tue Sep 20, 2011 at 11:45:30 AM PDT

  •  I can't say that my Atlanta Braves are a safe bet (0+ / 0-)

    After the last two night's losses and given a tired pen, the loss of their #2-3 starters, along with their schedule (Washington plays them tough), I give them less than a 49-51 chance of making the playoffs. Hurts my heart to say it, but they haven't looked like a playoff-bound team in weeks.

    "There is nothing more dreadful than the habit of doubt. Doubt separates people. It is a poison that disintegrates friendships and breaks up pleasant relations. It is a thorn that irritates and hurts; it is a sword that kills.".. Buddha

    by sebastianguy99 on Tue Sep 20, 2011 at 01:23:12 PM PDT

  •  Updates tomorrow????? (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Edge PA, moose67

    What's up with that?  Is it that hard to say my TIGERS are number 2?  Or, are you just waiting to see the outcome of tonight's game against the Royales with Cheese?  Why do you hurt me so???  btw, I'm expecting predictions, as well.  I'm calling TIGERS/fillies, right now.  Notice what I did?

    People shouldn't fear their government. They should fear the corporations that own their government.

    by tdub901 on Tue Sep 20, 2011 at 02:18:42 PM PDT

    •  I can either run the playoff outcome simulation (0+ / 0-)

      or the power rankings program.  The playoff simulation takes longer to run actually.

      I will do a final power rankings before the end of the season.

      If they put Tigers in with horses at the zoo I like their chances ... Have to do some thinking on who would win the baseball match up.

      Hurting you is just a bonus!

      I am a statistician, not a magician although we are easily confused. I guess that explains why people keep trying to tie me in chains and place me under water.

      by Edge PA on Tue Sep 20, 2011 at 02:29:44 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Villain!!! (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Edge PA

        A pox on the house of Royales with cheese.  Wait, thats an empty threat.

        People shouldn't fear their government. They should fear the corporations that own their government.

        by tdub901 on Tue Sep 20, 2011 at 02:32:14 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I seen your fear of Mendoza (0+ / 0-)

          in your words.

          The man who will on day will replace Cy Young as the pitching standard.

          Tonight starts the quest for 512, with the Tigers providing victory #1.

          (The previous comment came from the crazy fan part of Edge PA, not that statistical part ... The statistical part says get this nut job out of here ...)

          I am a statistician, not a magician although we are easily confused. I guess that explains why people keep trying to tie me in chains and place me under water.

          by Edge PA on Tue Sep 20, 2011 at 02:36:05 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Now I know why you dont have an office... (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Edge PA

            What are you smoking to come up with that?  And can you score me some?

            People shouldn't fear their government. They should fear the corporations that own their government.

            by tdub901 on Tue Sep 20, 2011 at 02:38:24 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  How did that Mendoza start work out for you (0+ / 0-)

              1 down 511 to go.

              Have a good day!

              I am a statistician, not a magician although we are easily confused. I guess that explains why people keep trying to tie me in chains and place me under water.

              by Edge PA on Thu Sep 22, 2011 at 09:26:48 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

  •  My Picks: (0+ / 0-)

    Boston over Texas,NY Yankees over Detroit in ALDS.Milwaukee over Atlanta,Philadelphia over Arizona in NLDS.NY Yankees win AL pennant,Philadelphia wins the NL pennant.Philly wins the World Series in six.

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