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Leading Off:

OH Redistricting: As expected, the state Senate followed the House in passing the new Republican-drawn congressional map yesterday — and once again, pathetically, two Democrats voted in support of the GOP plan (both of whom were, as with the House aisle-crossers, African American). More importantly, though, Republicans included a provision designed to thwart any attempts to over-ride the bill at the ballot box:

The bill included a new appropriations provision inserted by the Senate Government Oversight and Reform Committee that essentially prevents Democrats from collecting petition signatures to temporarily block the bill and place it on the November 2012 ballot.

Under the Ohio Constitution, bills with appropriation provisions aren’t subject to a referendum. Because of the change, the bill has to return to the Ohio House for a concurrence vote.

The Toledo Blade has more, but it's not perfectly clear-cut:

As a general rule, appropriation bills, such as the state budget, take effective immediately and are not subject to a petition effort to put the law directly to voters. That, however, has become less clear. The Ohio Supreme Court last year derailed then Democratic Gov. Ted Strickland’s plan to install slot machines at racetracks by inserting the language into the budget, ruling that that language could be separately subjected to referendum.

"That’s a question for lawyers and legal authority, but I think the law is clear, if the appropriation is relevant to the issue at hand, the appropriation generally makes those portions effective immediately," said Sen. Keith Fabor (R., Celina), the committee’s chairman and a lawyer.

Still, if Fabor's view is right, then the GOP was clever, because they added $2.75 million "to help county boards of elections to implement the new maps." That certainly sounds "relevant to the issue at hand," though only a judge can say so for sure.

Finally, it may be moot at this point, but another interesting article from the Blade notes that Democrats successfully blocked a redistricting map at the ballot box… back in 1915. Indeed, the case even went all the way up the US Supreme Court, which upheld the validity of the referendum. We may not get the chance to try that again, though.


CA-Sen: That's one way to bounce back from having your campaign coffers raided by a corrupt treasurer: Sen. Dianne Feinstein says she'll put $5 million of her (very considerable) personal wealth into her own race, an amount that equals what she reported to the FEC as having on hand on June 30. Amazingly, Politico also reports that Feinstein is still unable to access her campaign accounts in the three weeks since the Kinde Durkee story broke, which suggests that she had a shoddy or non-existent system of redundancies in place to protect against this sort of thing. It also means Feinstein doesn't even know how much has been stolen.

Meanwhile, Fox News (sorry, sorry) spoke with Michael Reagan, who says he isn't running against Feinstein and claims never to have spoken with the San Francisco Chronicle, which originally reported he was thinking about the race. Reagan, by the way, is indeed the name you know: He's a conservative talk radio host and the son of the former president. Michael was in fact adopted by Ronald and his first wife, Jane Wyman, and apparently didn't have a great relationship with pops.

CT-Sen: Huh? Didn't Rob Simmons specifically say that he and Chris Shays have a non-aggression pact? According to Shira Toeplitz's Aug. 26 piece, they sure did, with both ex-Reps. telling that only one of them would go up against Linda McMahon in the GOP primary. With Shays moving ahead with a bid, it certainly seemed pretty clear whose turn it was to get steamrolled, but now comes this from Simmons:

“I’m not ruling anything out. Things can change very quickly and drastically. Politics is a calling. I’m always looking for new opportunities to serve.”

Chris Shays certainly won't be too happy to hear this… but I sure am. A Simmons entry would turn a likely McMahon primary victory into something close to a sure thing, and despite her infinite millions, I have to believe Chris Murphy would rather face her than someone with a more moderate profile like Shays or Simmons.

MO-Sen, MO-Gov, MO-Pres: PPP has some Republican primary numbers for the state of Missouri, and the most interesting are from the Senate race. There, former Treasurer Sarah Steelman has taken an unexpected 40-29 lead over Rep. Todd Akin, who was up 29-28 four months ago. However, last time, Tom Jensen included teabagger Ed Martin (who has dropped out) and businessman John Brunner (who hasn't), so it looks like their support has gone to Steelman. Akin getting stuck at 29 is certainly bad for him, especially since he's supposed to be the frontrunner. As for the other two races, Missouri Republicans really don't like Peter Kinder and love them some Rick Perry.

TX-Sen, TX-Gov: Back in July, we linked a story that explained what would happen if Gov. Rick Perry got elected president and Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst got elected to the Senate at the same time. The answer was… complicated. But now the Austin American-Statesman's Jason Embry has added an even stranger wrinkle: What would happen if both Perry and Dewhurst won, but Dewhurst decided he'd rather spurn the Senate and ascend to the governor's mansion as Perry's automatic replacement? Read the link to explore this late-night sports radio call-in show-style hypothetical. (Incidentally, Dewhurst insists he would never do this.)


KY-Gov: This David Williams ad featuring "two dudes at a diner" just seems utterly forced and phony. These fake attempts at authenticity so seldom seem to work. If you want to watch a truly authentic ad, check out this spot Tom Udall ran back in 2008.

WV-Gov: Early voting has begun in the West Virginia special gubernatorial election between acting Gov. Earl Ray Tomblin (D) and businessman Bill Maloney (R). The early voting period continues until Oct. 1. For obscure reasons, election day is Oct. 4 (rather than in November).


CA-15: The East Bay Citizen reports (via an anonymous source) that Senate Majority Leader Ellen Corbett will not challenge Rep. Pete Stark in the Democratic primary, even though she recently filed FEC paperwork to create a campaign committee. The same piece also suggests that Assemblywoman Mary Hayashi might mount a bid. Meanwhile, at least one Democrat is in fact getting in against Stark: Eric Swalwell, an Alameda County deputy district attorney and Dublin City Councilman, just joined the race.

GA-12: Even though they've drawn Dem Rep. John Barrow into an almost unwinnable district, I guess the NRCC isn't taking any chances. They're up with a $21K ad buy criticizing Barrow for voting for the stimulus — and to show that you can never win when you play their game, they're also attacking him for refusing to vote for a repeal of healthcare reform (lolbluedogs). So this looks like part of their ongoing "get the guy to retire" strategy (they're also airing ads trying to goad California Rep. Jim Costa into hanging up his spurs, too).

IL-12: Jason Plummer, the 2010 Republican Lt. Gov. nominee, is reportedly considering a challenge to Dem Rep. Jerry Costello. The NRCC previously spent $20K on an ad attacking Costello of "bankrupting Medicare." Note that even during last year's red hurricane, Costello won 60-37.

IL-14: Already-disgraced GOP freshman Joe Walsh has made it official: To no one's surprise, he announced he'll run against fellow Republican incumbent Randy Hultgren in the redrawn 14th district. Amusingly, he said of himself and Hultgren: "We've both had a very different initial tenure in Washington." That's one way of putting it. (One article claimed that Walsh was breaking some sort of agreement between Republicans, who supposedly pledged not to campaign until their court challenge to the new map is resolved. But the piece doesn't even cite a source for that claim, and plenty of GOPers have been gearing up in their new districts for months. What's more, see the IL-16 item just below.)

IL-16: I'm a little reluctant to link to this story in the Morris Daily Herald, because I know at least one important detail is wrong, but let me try to sort everything out. First off, GOP freshman Adam Kinzinger says he's seeking re-election "in the district that represents Grundy County." I have no idea why he's making Grundy the focus of his efforts, since Kinzinger is from Manteno, in neighboring Kankakee County, except for the fact that Manteno has now been placed in the absolutely unwinnable 2nd CD (Jesse Jackson, Jr.'s new home). So I guess Kinzinger is viewing Grundy as his new base, though he's gamely holding out false hope that the new Democratic-drawn congressional map will get thrown out in court in favor of a GOP pipe dream that would put him in a made-up district they number the 11th.

What the article definitely gets wrong is its claim that veteran Republican Don Manzullo is filing to run in the new 11th CD. That made no sense on its face, since the redrawn 11th is not only very blue, but it's also very far away from Manzullo's home in Leaf River. Because that seemed so implausible, I called Manzullo's press secretary, Rich Carter, who said that the story was an "error." Carter confirmed that Manzullo is circulating petitions to run in the current 16th. (It would also be the 16th under the GOP's alternate-universe plan.) This means, then, that Kinzinger would face off against Manzullo in the Republican primary — something he in fact said he'd do right after the new Democratic map became public back in May. Kinzinger swiftly retracted that story, though, and said he hadn't made up his mind. I guess now he has.

One final related note: Winnebago County Board member Frank Gambino, who had previously indicated he was gearing up for a run in this district, is instead going to campaign for state Senate. I suppose Gambino imagined he might have had a thin chance against Manzullo alone in the GOP primary, but perhaps he got wind of this Kinzinger decision and realized it would be hopeless going up against two incumbents.

MI-05: Good luck winning the Republican nomination, jerkface: Former state Rep. Jim Slezak, who served a single term in the legislature as a Democrat before failing in a state Senate primary bid last year, is switching to the Republican Party in order to run for the 5th CD seat left open by Rep. Dale Kildee's retirement.

NY-23: Even though he said he'd seek a rematch against Dem Rep. Bill Owens back in May, businessman Matt Doheny only just now filed FEC paperwork to make the race official. Yes, pre-announcements are my least-favorite thing in politics.

PA-07: Dem ex-Rep. Joe Sestak, in the news because of his opposition to the Pennsylvania GOP's electoral college plan, is also saying he isn't ruling out another run for elective office — which is exactly what he said in February when he was last asked. Back then, though, the speculation was that he might run for governor in 2014. Now, PoliticsPA is suggesting a return to his old seat in the 7th CD could be in the cards, and adds that local politicos and potential candidates are all playing wait-and-see. I wonder if Sestak himself is waiting on Rep. Pat Meehan to decide on his own plans, since Meehan lately has been a target of (desperate) Republican recruitment efforts for the Senate race.

Other Races:

NJ-St. Sen.: Wow. This could be a really stunning setback for Carl Lewis, after he already appeared to make it over the finish line. A federal appellate panel, which previously ruled he could appear on the ballot, has now made the extremely unusual move of vacating its previous decision. I don't know why the judges didn't seem to be aware of this previously, but apparently at least one is unhappy about the fact that Lewis voted in California in 2008 and 2009. It doesn't look good for Lewis.

Special Elections: Johnny with the roundup of Tuesday night's festivities:

Georgia HD-42: Going to a runoff on October 18 between two of the five Republicans who ran; Robert Lamutt and John Carson clinched the top two spots.

Massachusetts House, Bristol-12: Keiko Orrall picked up this seat for the Republicans, defeating Democrat Roger Brunelle 55-45.

New Hampshire House, Hillsborough-3: Peter Leishman picked up this seat for the Democrats in a 60-40 victory over Republican David Simpson.

Grab Bag:

Voter Suppression: Man these people are a fucking joke. At taxpayer expense, Maine's Republican Secretary of State investigated "voter fraud" for two months, found none, and then concludes that the system is "fragile and vulnerable." Keep trying!

VRA: Rick Hasen reports that Judge John Bates of the DC District just upheld the constitutionality of section 5 of the Voting Rights Act — the part of the law which requires certain jurisdictions with a history of discrimination to "preclear" any changes to voting procedures with the Department of Justice. Hasen notes that Bates is a George W. Bush appointee and thinks that Bates wrote a very strong decision which could help sway Anthony Kennedy when this case (or one like it) eventually gets to the Supreme Court.

Redistricting Roundup:

WA redistricting: If you're a Daily Kos Elections regular, you probably start to get itchy and hallucinate when enough time goes by without getting a new map to look at. Well, if you're in need of a cartography fix, here's something to tide you over: the newly redistricted map for the nine seats on the King County Council (a pretty significant municipality, at 1.9 million residents). (David Jarman)

Originally posted to Daily Kos Elections on Thu Sep 22, 2011 at 05:00 AM PDT.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

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Comment Preferences

  •  New Q poll just came out from FL (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, citizenx

    Has Perry up in the primary,

    However, in the GE it shows Romney beating Obama by 7, while Perry is down to the President by 2.

    DKE! “Music speaks what cannot be expressed, soothes the mind and gives it rest, heals the heart and makes it whole, flows from heaven to the soul.” anonymous

    by aggou on Thu Sep 22, 2011 at 06:05:02 AM PDT

    •  GE numbers (0+ / 0-)

      for FL or nationwide?

    •  Ahh my bad, (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      DKE! “Music speaks what cannot be expressed, soothes the mind and gives it rest, heals the heart and makes it whole, flows from heaven to the soul.” anonymous

      by aggou on Thu Sep 22, 2011 at 06:35:38 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Another reason Perry loves Rubio (0+ / 0-)

      but if you're already having to shore up states before you even win one primary then there are really bigger problems to address.

      •  I wonder what the Republicans are going to do (0+ / 0-)

        if they pick Rubio and he doesn't instantly solve all of their problems. This is more of a hunch than anything else, but I suspect Rubio is aware of his limitations (temporarily, at least) as a candidate and recognizes hitching his star to one of these candidates' wagons could doom him for a long time, which is one reason why he's reluctant to embrace talk for the vice presidential slot.

        •  Unless it's Romney, (0+ / 0-)

          Rubio and Gov. Martinez should say "absolutely not".  Although, Rubio has to run for Senate in 2016 instead of President so he may go for it simply because he has so long to wait until he can run for higher office.  (Or he could run for Gov. at some point as well, much better stepping off point for President.)  But not Martinez, she can run for President in 2016, assuming she does an okay job, and a 2012 VP run is not necessary to fulfill her trajectory and it could be harmful.

          •  I don't see anyone picking another 2 year (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            JGibson, pademocrat

            female Governor any time soon after what happened in 2008. And Rubio could certainly run for President in 2016, if he's willing to give up his seat. Even if he doesn't win the Presidency, he could likely take on Bill Nelson's seat in 2018 or, as you say, Governor.

            Hillary Clinton's Liberal Ranking

            by tigercourse on Thu Sep 22, 2011 at 07:52:26 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

    •  Seeing a pattern here (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      itskevin, DCCyclone

      Quinnipiac showing better numbers for Republicans than Republican polls. They could well be right though. I guess the big picture is the same everywhere - Romney and Obama in a national tossup, Perry clearly trailing.

      “I am a man of fixed and unbending principles, the first of which is to be flexible at all times.” Everett Dirksen (R-IL)

      by conspiracy on Thu Sep 22, 2011 at 07:24:51 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Romney better than expected, we better hope... (0+ / 0-)

        ...Republican voters pick Perry before they come to their senses.

        Tonight's debate, it seems a consensus that Perry was very poor and hurt himself.  His moment of trying to attack Romney as a flip-flopper toward the end was just a Godawful delivery and completely backfired, badly.

        Obama will do better than Perry and the rest of these GOP clowns hitting Romney on all his vulnerabilities, but it will be no better than a tossup for us the way it's looking.

        Against Perry, Obama will be a clear favorite.

        It's crucial that Perry win Iowa, SC, and Florida.

        43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Thu Sep 22, 2011 at 09:41:11 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  GOP establishment would like to see Joe Walsh (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, citizenx, KingofSpades

    ...lose. I'm thinking this major pain-in-the-ass has outworn his welcome with just about everybody but the most diehard teabaggers.

    Here we are now Entertain us I feel stupid and contagious

    by Scarce on Thu Sep 22, 2011 at 06:39:57 AM PDT

  •  Reposting my tweaked MD map (6+ / 0-)

    for opinions from Sao, Mike in MD et al...

    Image Hosted by

    Blue: Andy Harris (R-Cockeysville), was 40/58, now 39/59, Avg is 43/57

    Green: Dutch Ruppersberger (D-Cockeysville), stays 60/38, Avg is 64/36

    Purple: John Sarbanes (D-Towson), was 59/39, now 60/38, Avg is 62/38

    Red: Donna Edwards (D-Ft Washington), was 85/14, now 77/22, Avg 76/24, 53% VAP black

    Yellow: Steny Hoyer (D-Mechanicsville), was 65/33, now 63/36, Avg 65/35, still home to the Terps (and now only 52% white total pop...)

    Teal: Chris Van Hollen (D-Kensington) (not sure where he lives but should contain his home), was 40/58, now 62/36, Avg 64/36

    Gray: Elijah Cummings (D-Baltimore), was 79/20, now 70/29, Avg 68/32, 50.6% VAP black

    Slate blue: Roscoe Bartlett (R-Frederick) just barely inside the district lines, was 74/25, now 65/34, Avg 64/36. Remove about 200 white people and this would be minority-majority by VAP.

    21, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

    by sapelcovits on Thu Sep 22, 2011 at 06:40:44 AM PDT

    •  Looks good as far as I can see (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      I can't zoom in to see all the individual precincts (I'm not sure which district I'd be in, 6 or 8), but it seems to accomplish, with slightly cleaner lines what the leaked sketch of a potential plan also accomplishes: 7-1 with all Dem districts safe, 4 and 7 stay African American majority, 6th goes Democratic, and conceding the 1st.

      Just a couple of questions; 50.6% VAP black for the 7th I presume is legal, though it cuts a bit close.  (However, a larger majority of the Democratic primary voters are likely to be black, and that should determine the election despite the heavily Republican nature of the parts of the district outside of Baltimore City and County.)  Also, I presume that the 3rd includes such South Baltimore areas as Brooklyn, Cherry Hill, and Federal Hill?  It doesn't quite look contiguous here but that's probably due to the wide neck of the Patapsco River that juts into the city.  And does the 5th include such bayside areas in Anne Arundel county as Annapolis, Cape St. Claire, and Edgewater?  It's better if it does, so as not to raise water contiguity questions.

      •  Thanks for the feedback (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        the 3rd does indeed pass through the harbor area of Baltimore, and the 5th passes through Annapolis and uses land connections to wrap around the 4th--there might be very minor water contiguity but nothing worse than, say, the current 2nd.

        21, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

        by sapelcovits on Thu Sep 22, 2011 at 11:03:51 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Sestak (5+ / 0-)

    He would be a great recruit for the house next year

  •  Romney up big in NH (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    Perry in fourth with 8%, behind Huntsman.

    “If you think I can be bought for five thousand dollars, I'm offended." Rick Perry.

    by Paleo on Thu Sep 22, 2011 at 06:59:32 AM PDT

    •  isn't this arguably bad for romney? (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      The Caped Composer, itskevin

      if the poll is accurate and he wins by such a huge margin, isn't it possible that other candidates will ignore NH, stopping any momentum he would get from a win?  If the poll holds true and his greatest advesary in NH is paul, it seems like the news media and perry, his only real opponent at the moment, would tune out. It seems like it would be similar to Tsongas' win in 92, or Dukakis in 88.  Sure Dukakis won the nomination, but it wasn't a quick victory.  

    •  Best case scenario (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      Bachmann wins Iowa, Romney wins New Hampshire, Perry wins South Carolina, and all three stick it out until midsummer. The winner will be broke, batterd, have only a plurality of delegates, and not much time to recover before the election.

      •  Nice image (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        savvyspy, Zack from the SFV

        But how "broke" can a Republican really be in the age of Citizens United?

        Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

        by MichaelNY on Thu Sep 22, 2011 at 07:11:24 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Coordinated expenditures (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:

          That is key. Obama will have hundreds of millions of dollars that he can allocate directly. And as much as Democrats got blindsided by Citizens United in 2010, I feel as though the now Democrats are learning to play the Republicans' game. For every David Koch, there is a George Soros. So the dark money ads will not be as lopsided next year. And there is no way any of the Republicans could catch up to Obama on the Cash On Hand front if they don't get started until July

          •  Time is also an issue. (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:

            Unless it's getting so bad that Herman Cain would easily beat Obama, it's quite possible that every week the Republican race drags on, it's harder for the eventual candidate to gain traction. It's possible to simply unite people behind the idea of simply defeating Obama, but that's only a temporary measure. People will want to know what each person stands for and what they plan to do differently. And in this situation, as the Republican race might drag on, Obama will be building on his successes from 2008, organizing and mobilizing without all of the problems the Republicans face.

            I think it's different from 2008, by the way, since the Republicans aren't going into the race with the same sort of structural advantage the Democrats had that year. Some might feel differently about this, however, and if they do, I am curious to hear why.

            •  This relates to something I've been thinking about (0+ / 0-)

              It has always been my understanding that Clinton ran early ads in 1996 to disqualify Dole as an acceptable alternative. If the Obama campaign has similar plans then an extended Republican primary is the last thing he needs.

              “I am a man of fixed and unbending principles, the first of which is to be flexible at all times.” Everett Dirksen (R-IL)

              by conspiracy on Thu Sep 22, 2011 at 07:55:46 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

      •  Bachman's one and done (4+ / 0-)

        Iowa is the only place she has a chance of winning.  Even if she does, she'll be gone not long after.

        Still, I hope she does win Iowa, to weaken Perry.

        “If you think I can be bought for five thousand dollars, I'm offended." Rick Perry.

        by Paleo on Thu Sep 22, 2011 at 07:14:39 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Good Numbers for Democrats in North Dakota (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, KingofSpades, TofG, pademocrat

    Via Roll Call, we find a poll from

    The Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group survey showed the likely GOP Senate nominee, freshman Rep. Rick Berg (R-N.D.) with 44 percent. Another 40 percent of respondents preferred a Democratic candidate.

    This article also mentions how Berg's "personal and performance ratings" are the lowest for any holder of federal office, no matter which party, although it's not clear how bad that is or which candidates they asked about in the poll.

    Is this poll credible?

    I've meaning to ask about this. I'm kind of puzzled that the Democrats appear to be letting this one slide by, as holding this seat makes it far more likely that they will hold the Senate and since contesting it is, as many here have said, like contesting a mid-range House district. I can understand the reluctance to compete in a big state, like Texas, but why here? Is there no Democrat willing to take the plunge? It doesn't have to be a big candidate or even a current office holder; someone with a nice white smile who is willing to campaign hard would probably suffice, at this point. There are still a few months left in this year, and since the field appears to be wide open, there's no reason why someone ambitious couldn't try for it. If someone's worried about lacking resources to compete, why can't they get Patty Murray to help this person out? I just don't get it.

    •  It might be a bad poll (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      The Caped Composer, TofG

      but either way, this is just the kick in the pants dems need.  Granted, part of the problem is the lack of a dem bench, but the other problem is that it's like a dem running for federal office in CT, no one expects it to be close, until a poll says it is.  Now that dems know this might be winnable, more and better candidates may try to run.

    •  Why is Berg (0+ / 0-)

      so relatively unpopular in ND?

      Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

      by MichaelNY on Thu Sep 22, 2011 at 07:12:52 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Earl Pomeroy is the only guy who could win. (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      TofG, itskevin

      or Byron Dorgan. If he makes a sudden reprive.

      I think we should talk Kent Conrad into running again.

    •  The Denocrats in North Dakota (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      The problem is the same as Republicans presidential. and that is the fact that named candidates simply do not perform as well as Generic Politician. And the North Dakota Democratic Party has had the same 3 people for a generation, and never really built a bench...

      •  That's true, but at the same time, (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        the biggest name they've got is already in the Senate. It's such a small state and so cheap to compete in that it seems perfect for someone without a lot of baggage, like a wild personal life, to make a long shot run in, even if this candidate doesn't have a background in politics. It doesn't even have 700,000 people overall, and certainly less than that number in overall voters. We are still over a year away from the actual election. There's really no excuse to give up right now.

        •  I have no problem with begging (0+ / 0-)

          If there is a way, any way, to convince Conrad, or Dorgan to give it another shot, I am all for it. But the bench is astonishingly thin. Although I do believe that are some candidates that could give it a shot from the Fargo or Grand Forks area exist, they would have a hard time unseating a congressman that has won statewide. Also, there is a bit of a chasm between the "River Folk" that live along the Red River, and the rest of the state. Yes, even in such a sparsely populated state there are regional divides.

          •  east-west (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            TofG, pademocrat

            The east has been moving left (Obama won it outright) as it gets more urbanized and more dependent on the universities and less dependent on the military although of course it's still dominated by ag. The west has also been urbanizing but is likely to move even further to the right as it has become even more dependent on oil.

            SSP poster. 42, CA-5, -0.25/-3.90

            by sacman701 on Thu Sep 22, 2011 at 08:31:06 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Correct, sans 1 bit (0+ / 0-)

              "the west has also been urbanizing"
              I don't really think that is the best way to put it. There are a couple pockets of migrant oil rig workers that move from place to place putting in oil extraction equipment (particularly for oil shale). But I wouldn't call that urbanizing. Anything west of Bismark is really a land of openness. And Bismark itself is quite small. Large is legitimately the only "urban" area in the state. Grand Forks still feels like an oversized college town.

              •  urbanizing (0+ / 0-)

                For me the east-west divide is somewhere around Jamestown or Devils Lake. If the west starts west of Bismarck then I agree with you. By urbanizing I was just referring to the general trend of the last 70-80 years of the population slowly leaving the rural areas for the cities, Fargo and Bismarck in particular.

                SSP poster. 42, CA-5, -0.25/-3.90

                by sacman701 on Thu Sep 22, 2011 at 09:35:13 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

          •  I agree that someone that has run before (0+ / 0-)

            would be better, but I hardly think it's necessary. I suspect the biggest impediment to a novice is difficult in getting people to notice you, which is far less of a problem in a small state in which it is cheap to advertise. So if there's a Ron Johnson/John Edwards-type out there, even without the money, it wouldn't be the worst thing in the world.

            And yes, the fact that Berg is a sitting congressman makes it harder. But while he won, the year probably did Pomeroy in more than anything else. Berg may be a hard guy to unseat, but he's not Hoeven.

    •  Oh please, oh please . . . (n/t) (0+ / 0-)

      28, chick, solid progressive, NY-14 currently, FL-22 native, went to school in IL-01.

      by The Caped Composer on Thu Sep 22, 2011 at 07:24:25 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Is this guy more or less of a dead weight (0+ / 0-)

      compared to the other Republicans, and if so, why?

    •  Call me a cynic (many here already have) (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jncca, pademocrat

      But this is one bowl of Fancy Feast I don't want. A divided right flank will open up a shot up the middle for Thompson. And I absolutely do not want Tommy Thompson to get the nomination.

      •  who else is running as a far right candidate? (0+ / 0-)

        I know there might be one or two others, but Fitzgerald is the only one who could get money and organization behind him, right? If this turns into a Fitzgerald-Thompson race I gotta think the speaker is favored.

        •  Neuman is already in (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:

          And he has backing ad well. And in any 3 way race, I have to say advantage Thompson.

          •  I disagree totally, Neumann a non-starter (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            NMLib, James Allen

            Yes I know CfG is backing him and that helps if they raise money for him and put their own ads on the air, but I bet they attack only Thompson and not Fitzgerald, helping Fitz.

            Meanwhile, Neumann himself is yesteryear's news, and GOP voters already are done with him.

            I really think we'll find this primary becoming a 2-way with Thompson and Fitz, and Neumann a distant 3rd.  This primary is not Thompson vs. anti-Thompson, there's not an "anti-Thompson" vote to be split, voters are more wide-open than that.

            43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

            by DCCyclone on Thu Sep 22, 2011 at 09:45:24 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

      •  Certainly (0+ / 0-)

        But it also means more money spent against him in a late primary. Can he hold on for a year? Possible but tough. Coats likely loses to Stutzman last year in Indiana with more time. Hostettler was an after thought. I think we might see something similar here.

        “I am a man of fixed and unbending principles, the first of which is to be flexible at all times.” Everett Dirksen (R-IL)

        by conspiracy on Thu Sep 22, 2011 at 07:42:22 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  It's how Feingold got the nomination in 1992 (0+ / 0-)

        Two candidates tore each other part and he shot up the middle.  I worry as well, but I also have to wonder where all these moderate GOPers are that like him in the state.  And maybe one of the two conservatives will drop out once the polls show what they are going to show.

        Who knows what may happen.

        •  Fitzgerald and Neumann (0+ / 0-)

          Will be tearing into the better known Thompson and not so much each other. That seems very different to the way Feingold won.

          “I am a man of fixed and unbending principles, the first of which is to be flexible at all times.” Everett Dirksen (R-IL)

          by conspiracy on Thu Sep 22, 2011 at 08:16:12 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  may not matter (0+ / 0-)

            Thompson probably starts this race with a high floor, from moderates and from more conservative people who liked him as governor. Unless one of Neumann or Fitzgerald fades completely, Thompson is in a nice position.

            SSP poster. 42, CA-5, -0.25/-3.90

            by sacman701 on Thu Sep 22, 2011 at 08:34:49 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

        •  Except Feingold was young and very dynamic (0+ / 0-)

          while Thompson is worn out in comparison.

          'An eye for an eye makes the whole world blind.' -Mahatma Gandhi

          by KingofSpades on Thu Sep 22, 2011 at 08:19:00 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  I dunno (0+ / 0-)

        I thought Perry entering would divide the right flank against Romney, but that turned out to not be the case.

        'An eye for an eye makes the whole world blind.' -Mahatma Gandhi

        by KingofSpades on Thu Sep 22, 2011 at 08:18:07 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  agree (0+ / 0-)

        This actually is great news! For Tommy Thompson!

        SSP poster. 42, CA-5, -0.25/-3.90

        by sacman701 on Thu Sep 22, 2011 at 08:32:07 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Neumann will place third (0+ / 0-)

        If it's one thing conservatives are smart enough to do here, it's unite around one conservative candidate. If Neumann wasn't already a loser, he might be a threat, but he didn't even get close to Walker in the primary last year. The establishment will back Fitzgerald.

        25, Male, CA-24, DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

        by DrPhillips on Thu Sep 22, 2011 at 08:46:35 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  It's funny... (0+ / 0-)

          Fitzgerald is both the Wisconsin establishment candidate and the conservative activist favorite. Thompson only has the national establishment and Nuemann has the some of the national conservative activist, but not all.

          19, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus, male, Dem, (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

          by ndrwmls10 on Thu Sep 22, 2011 at 08:49:43 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  I live in OH (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Herse182, pademocrat

    and in one of the congressional districts that was chopped up. It is the 16th, held for almost 40 years by Ralph Regula (R), then went for 2 years to a D John Boccieri, then back to R with Jim Renacci, a total dipshit BTW. I guess Renacci will still be the 16th district congresscritter, but I am no longer in the 16th. Our county, Stark, is always a bellwether county for the state, and it now has 3 different congresspersons.

    Let me tell you, people are PISSED! Even Congressman Regula said it was ridiculous. He said people always knew who to call when they had a problem, now with the 3 districts you don't know who to call.

  •  Perhaps McMahon is readying for a battle of (0+ / 0-)

    attrition since she didn't have much of a web presence for her candidacy announcement this week in CT. How difficult would it have been to provide video of it on her website?

    Chris Shays certainly won't be too happy to hear this… but I sure am. A Simmons entry would turn a likely McMahon primary victory into something close to a sure thing, and despite her infinite millions, I have to believe Chris Murphy would rather face her than someone with a more moderate profile like Shays or Simmons.

    I am off my metas! Präsidentenelf-maßschach; Warning-Some Snark Above"Nous sommes un groupuscule" (-9.50; -7.03)

    by annieli on Thu Sep 22, 2011 at 07:17:56 AM PDT

  •  Is there a list of Dems being primaried? (0+ / 0-)

    I am interested in seeing what is going on in contested D held seats -- who is running for those seats, on what issues and with what sort of results.  Can someone point me in the right direction?  TIA

  •  GA 12 (4+ / 0-)

    If the elephants are trying to scare John Barrow into retiring they are doing a piss poor job.  I saw John at a Dem function last weekend.  He looked great (He is recovering from prostate cancer.) and he is ready for a fight.  The district is certainly less favorable than the old 12th but not totally impossible.  In particular, it now includes Dublin and Laurens county which is a Dem stronghold.  Also parts of the district were in Jim Marshall's old district, so a Dem can win there.  There is also more of Augusta-Richmond which is the largest county and another Dem bastion in the new.

      The biggest problem is that John may feel a need to move further right.  That is already a problem for Democratic activists, as witness his being primaried out of Savannah the last two cycles.  He shouldn't have that problem this time and can certainly raise lots of money.

    Reporting from Tea Bagger occupied America

    by DrJohnB on Thu Sep 22, 2011 at 07:19:29 AM PDT

  •  Carl Lewis (NJ State Senate) (0+ / 0-)

    I can't believe this case is still around.  Lewis has absolutely, positively no case.  He should have to pay the state's costs, as far as I'm concerned.  It was known from the outset, from media reports, that he didn't fulfill the residency requirement, which is why he based his claim on a spurious equal protection claim.  He's our Orly Taitz and he should go away.

    The Rent Is Too Damn High Party feels that if you want to marry a shoe, I'll marry you. --Jimmy McMillan

    by Rich in PA on Thu Sep 22, 2011 at 08:03:13 AM PDT

  •  KY-Gov: Beshear trying to wreck Williams' career? (0+ / 0-)

    Apparently, if Williams does worse than Fletcher did in 2007, the KY GOP might hold a coup and overthrow him as Senate President for fear that he'll drag the party down for years.

    'An eye for an eye makes the whole world blind.' -Mahatma Gandhi

    by KingofSpades on Thu Sep 22, 2011 at 08:21:49 AM PDT

  •  MA-Sen: Elizabeth Warren (5+ / 0-)

    is at 55% in the Democratic primary.

    19, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus, male, Dem, (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

    by ndrwmls10 on Thu Sep 22, 2011 at 08:36:14 AM PDT

  •  Is there some significance in the OH (0+ / 0-)

    redistricting that the two Democrats who joined the GOP plan were Black? Are their own districts especially protected? Was a deal made with them to gain their support?

    "Someone just turned the lights on in the bar and the sexiest state doesn't look so pretty anymore" CA Treasurer Bill Lockyer on Texas budget mess

    by CaliSista on Thu Sep 22, 2011 at 01:08:18 PM PDT

    •  I'm wondering if it could have been ... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      ... a worry that a court drawn map would not have any district with as high a percentage of black voters as the new OH-11, given the loss of population in Cleveland. One natural way to draw Northeast Ohio is to split Cleveland in half east and west, send the eastern end up into the western side of LaTourette's current district, and put the rest of LaTourette's district in with Youngstown, and depending on the details of the boundaries, the eastern Cleveland district could have a substantially lower percentage of black voters than the Cleveland/Akron cross-over district the Republicans drew.

      Support Lesbian Creative Works with Yuri anime and manga from ALC Publishing

      by BruceMcF on Thu Sep 22, 2011 at 04:11:01 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  IL-12: Plummer/Kormos v. Costello (0+ / 0-)

    My home district will feature Costello vs. whoever wins the GOP Primary (Theresa Kormos vs. Jason Plummer).

    Plummer has FAR more name recognition than Kormos, due to the fact that was on the Lt. Gov ticket with Bill Brady (who thankfully lost in 2010). He gave normally solid-blue Madison County a win in the Red column for the Gubernatorial race (light-blue Edwardsville [Plummer's hometown]/Glen Carbon area was full of Kirk/Brady signs in 2010, solid blue Granite City [My hometown]/Madison/Venice/Pontoon Beach was pretty much Quinn/Simon), so he'll easily defeat Kormos in the GOP Primary, but will get crushed by ConservaDem Jerry Costello in the General.

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