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And then there were 3 ...

Only 3 games left and the Boston is being Brave, while Atlanta is show Red, while both teams hold on by their figure nails trying to limp into the playoffs.

Take a leap below the fold, before you take an actual leap.

Today’s numbers are better than you would expect.  This has to do with Boston playing Baltimore and Tampa Bay playing New York.  My model does not account for New York possible resting people, or Baltimore thriving in the role of spoiler.  By the numbers you would expect Boston to win 54.5 % of the time at Baltimore and Tampa Bay to win 49.4% of the time when hosting the Yankees.  

Warning – statistics ahead …

This means the Maximum Likelihood Estimator (MLE) for a small sample of discrete outcomes has a wide variance.  The MLE of wins for Boston is 2, while for Tampa Bay its 1.  Because of this we have a confidence level of +- 18 % for these outcomes … meaning Boston’s chances are theoretically as low as 52%.

Here is today’s estimate …

Boston 70.3 to win, 17.9 to tie.
Tampa Bay is 11.8 to win, 17.9 to tie.
The Angels have a negligible chance to force a tie.

Having the one game lead is huge at this point …

For example, Here are the NL results, with Atlanta with the one game lead, but St. Louis is playing Houston while Atlanta is playing Phily.  You still expect both Atlanta and Houston to win 1 of 3.  That means St. Louis needs to win 2 to tie and 3 to have a chance of winning … the NL numbers.

Atlanta 59.6 to win
St. Louis 14.6 to win
Tie 26.7

And the Royals have a better than 50% chance of going 72-90.

Poll

Who wins the Wild Cards?

20%8 votes
35%14 votes
15%6 votes
30%12 votes

| 40 votes | Vote | Results

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Comment Preferences

  •  Tip Jar (9+ / 0-)

    I am a statistician, not a magician although we are easily confused. I guess that explains why people keep trying to tie me in chains and place me under water.

    by Edge PA on Mon Sep 26, 2011 at 07:40:39 AM PDT

  •  12-6 (4+ / 0-)

    Season record for the Sox and Yanks. I just keep repeating this to myself to keep from weeping uncontrollably.

    70% chance to win the wild card would be nice except for the 70% chance of getting swept in the first round. Maybe the 14 inning game allowed the Sox to find their misplaced spines, and all will be well, but could I be lucky enough to have Rick Perry implode AND the Sox return to glory? Calculate those odds...

    •  Rick Perry Implode (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      George

      100% chance ... now will he have his final implosion before being elected President ... slightly lower, but only slightly.

      Red Sox are not a good team right now.  They peaked in August and are hurt at the end.  Maybe having to push so hard after April's diaster did them in, I don't know.

      Next year for Boston, even if they get in.

      I am a statistician, not a magician although we are easily confused. I guess that explains why people keep trying to tie me in chains and place me under water.

      by Edge PA on Mon Sep 26, 2011 at 08:42:30 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  My Cardinals Are Pushing (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    yg17, Edge PA, JGibson, dizzydean

    and I think they might actually do it.

    When opportunity calls pick up the phone and give it directions to your house.

    by webranding on Mon Sep 26, 2011 at 08:30:48 AM PDT

  •  The Cards just need the Phils not to suck (5+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    yg17, webranding, Edge PA, BachFan, JGibson

    against the Braves--something they have had trouble with.  Now, if they can start looking like the team with the best record in baseball and sweep the Braves...

    I'm a bit worried though that Charlie Manuel wants the D-backs rather than the Cards in the first round and will act like he is playing to win...

    For the record, the Cards were 6-3 against the Phillies.  The D-backs were 3-3 against them....

    Buck up--Never say die. We'll get along! Charlie Chaplain, Modern Times (1936).

    by dizzydean on Mon Sep 26, 2011 at 08:33:08 AM PDT

  •  GO CARDINALS!!!! (5+ / 0-)

    I just hope the Phillies got all of that losing out of their system with their 8 game skid when they play the Braves. We can use their help.

    TEABAGGER: Totally Enraged About Blacks And Gays Getting Equal Rights

    by yg17 on Mon Sep 26, 2011 at 08:33:35 AM PDT

  •  Question. Will Boston or New York (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    yg17

    get Albert Pujols? You just asking.

    When opportunity calls pick up the phone and give it directions to your house.

    by webranding on Mon Sep 26, 2011 at 08:41:16 AM PDT

    •  St. Louis (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      yg17, JGibson

      I really think he stays.  I think the Cards pay him around 8 years and 27-28 Million per year ... with some crazy incentives that make it look like a 10 year 300 Million dollar contract.

      But I really think he stays.

      I am a statistician, not a magician although we are easily confused. I guess that explains why people keep trying to tie me in chains and place me under water.

      by Edge PA on Mon Sep 26, 2011 at 08:48:38 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  From our keyboards to the flying spaghetti (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Edge PA

        monster's ears.

        TEABAGGER: Totally Enraged About Blacks And Gays Getting Equal Rights

        by yg17 on Mon Sep 26, 2011 at 08:51:54 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I Think He Goes (0+ / 0-)

          we've locked up our pitching staff with new contracts. We have Holliday locked up. Just gave Berkman a one year, $12M contract.

          This is my gut. They can move Berkman to first. Then go out and find an All-star quality outfielder and an infielder for less then they would pay what Albert.

          Don't get me wrong, I love Albert. I do. The guy is a stud and a quality person off the field. But he just wants too much money. And as you noted below, it isn't hard to find a first baseman that can hit 35+ HR and drive in 100+ runs.

          When opportunity calls pick up the phone and give it directions to your house.

          by webranding on Mon Sep 26, 2011 at 09:00:07 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  If he goes, the Cards go after Buehrle (0+ / 0-)

            from the ChiSox....a Waino, Carp, Buehrle, Garcia set of pitchers would match any other lineup in MLB.  We have enough pop even without Pujols...

            Buck up--Never say die. We'll get along! Charlie Chaplain, Modern Times (1936).

            by dizzydean on Mon Sep 26, 2011 at 03:35:19 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

    •  Neither. I think he stays. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Edge PA

      His problem with free agency is that no team is really in the market for a first baseman, and he isn't going to want to be a DH/part time 1B in the AL.

      Plus, he would be competing against Prince Fielder in the free agent market who has already said he probably won't go back to Milwaukee.

      TEABAGGER: Totally Enraged About Blacks And Gays Getting Equal Rights

      by yg17 on Mon Sep 26, 2011 at 08:48:49 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Would love to see a Detroit-Milwaukee World Series (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    susanala, Edge PA, webranding

    Two small market teams.

    •  I love Zack (0+ / 0-)

      (big shock there ...)

      and would love for him to win a World Series!

      Let's Go (Former) Royals ...

      And yes there are former Royals playing big rolls for the Yankees and Red Sox as well.

      I am a statistician, not a magician although we are easily confused. I guess that explains why people keep trying to tie me in chains and place me under water.

      by Edge PA on Mon Sep 26, 2011 at 08:57:22 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Tigers have a chance. Brewers, not so much. (0+ / 0-)

      And the Phillies have to get back on track - they've been coasting, and it's time to get back into phighting phorm.

      I'm still wishcasting a Phillies / Tigers series.

      Tea Party manifesto: We're resigned to our collective fate because we don't want no stinkin' collective future with the likes of you

      by Richard Cranium on Mon Sep 26, 2011 at 09:00:44 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  sob....boo hoo (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Edge PA, dizzydean

    grrrrr....

    "Things are never so bad they can't get worse" - Dallasdoc

    by Shahryar on Mon Sep 26, 2011 at 10:02:03 AM PDT

  •  I may not be dry from the pool celebration yet, (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    dizzydean

    but I voted St. Louis/Tampa.

    Number 1 thing I do not want to hear: "Are you satisfied" (uttered by Chuck Todd).

    by AZphilosopher on Mon Sep 26, 2011 at 11:39:55 AM PDT

    •  And you picked correctly. (0+ / 0-)

      Wild, wild, wild, unbelieveable night of baseball.  I was up late.

      Tea Party manifesto: We're resigned to our collective fate because we don't want no stinkin' collective future with the likes of you

      by Richard Cranium on Thu Sep 29, 2011 at 05:28:52 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  My favorite moment (0+ / 0-)

        was either the St. Louis 1st inning against Houston or the DBacks pool celebration (I was there).

        Number 1 thing I do not want to hear: "Are you satisfied" (uttered by Chuck Todd).

        by AZphilosopher on Fri Sep 30, 2011 at 11:30:33 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  my favorite moment: when friend said lets go (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          AZphilosopher

          to the rays Yankee's game!!!

          was freakin awesome!!
          and my friend left early!!!!!

          but luckily my friend who drove stayed (although I could walk home from stadium)

          GO RAYS!!!!!
          this video sums up the emotions at THE GAME!!

          everyone watch this is awesome!

          I was at the epic Rays comeback game!! was AWESOME!! GO RAYS!!!

          by surfdog on Fri Sep 30, 2011 at 11:48:21 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

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