Public Policy Polling for Daily Kos. 1/6-9. Likely Registered nationwide voters. MoE 3.1% (1/6-9 results)
| FAVORABLE | UNFAVORABLE | NET CHANGE |
---|
PRESIDENT OBAMA | 49 (46) | 48 (49) | +4 |
| APPROVE | DISAPPROVE | NET CHANGE |
---|
PRESIDENT OBAMA | 46 (45) | 50 (51) | +2 |
| | | |
REID: | 23 | 44 | - |
MCCONNELL: | 19 | 33 | - |
| | | |
DEMOCRATIC PARTY: | 42 | 49 | - |
REPUBLICAN PARTY: | 36 | 51 | - |
| | | |
Remember, we now have a split sample in order to ask more questions -- we asked about Pelosi and Boehner last week, Reid and McConnell this week. We asked about Congressional Republicans and Democrats last week, about the major parties this week. (Look at the major geographic divisions on party favorability in the crosstabs. It's dramatic!)
Obama gets a bump in favorability. His reaction to the tragedy in Arizona seems to have reminded people why they like him. It didn't translate much to job approval, but it certainly helped his favorabilities -- mostly among Independents who went from 38-53 percent favorability, to 44-52.
This week we also asked Obama reelect and voter intensity questions:
Generally speaking if there was an election today would you vote to reelect Barack Obama, or would you vote for his Republican opponent?
Obama 47
Republican 45
Are you very excited, somewhat excited, or not at all excited about voting in the 2012 election for President?
Very excited
Republican 62
Democrat 57
Independent 47
Somewhat excited
Republican 20
Democrat 28
Independent 28
Not at all excited
Republican 18
Democrat 16
Independent 25
Obama's reelect numbers feature a massive gender gap -- women back him 53-40, men back the GOP 51-40. Independents are split 43-40 in favor of the Republican candidate. Supposedly bipartisan teabaggers support the GOP 83-12, while non-teabaggers support Obama 60-32. 18-29 year-olds support Obama 52-43, those older than 65 support Republican 50-42.
The intensity gap picture is mixed. While Republicans have a 5-point edge among the "most excited" about voting in 2012, the "somewhat excited" column more than evens it out. In fact, Republicans are slightly more likely to be "not at all excited" to vote than Democrats.
Before anyone says, "but it's too early!", let me say -- yes, it's too early. This is what's called a baseline. Over the next year and a half we'll be able to track progress as these numbers shift from one direction to another based on current events.