For the past 11 years, I've been researching political change in history, which has suggested a pattern.
A pattern where the interests of the Lower Class, Upper Class and Working Class each take a turn, in a repeating cycle, at dominating the political agenda for a period of several decades.
My book, Working Class Rising: Where the Tea Party Comes From and How to Fight It, will be coming out next month and will be available at Amazon in softcover or Kindle versions.
I've used the template that has emerged from my research to consider the likely consequences of what is occurring today in Egypt.
Each era brings with it not only greater benefits for the class it represents, but also the adoption of different world views, that adds to our ability to predict the outcome of international events.
In my research, I've focused on nations that appear in sync in this pattern of cycles --- in particular, the U.S. and western Europe. But as we becoming more globally connected, more and more nations synchronize.
"Uprisings" of the people appear in both Lower and Working Class periods, and we first need to determine which Egypt is experiencing. The U.S. and western Europe have just entered a period of Working Class rising. But has Egypt?
Sara Abu Bakr, a journalist and publisher in Cairo, was surprised by the lack of sexual harassment, for which Egypt is infamous, especially during large public events. "This was supposed to be sexual molestation day, and nothing happened," she said. Several activists in Cairo reported the same.
"You don’t see political flags [in the crowds]," said Ahmed Samih, an activist who directs an Internet radio station in Cairo. "You don’t see the Muslim Brotherhood. You see Egyptians. You see the flags of Egyptians all over the place."
"On the street and online, "Purity"—be it political or sexual—has become a rallying cry." http://www.newsweek.com/...
Women treated more respectfully, nationalism emphasized, but most of all the use of the word "purity," tell us that the answer is yes.
Victoria in England ushered in a period obsessed with purity in the 19th century.
In the 20th century, the Nazis and the KKK showed an obsession with racial purity.
And today in the United States, fathers and daughters attend purity balls.
In Working Class periods, large worker demonstrations and strikes can be expected, but it is unlikely that the workers will seek to take over the government violently. Workers have been known to take over buildings (usually factories), but invariably give them back, when their demands for greater benefits are agreed to.
As no charismatic leader has been mentioned at the forefront of these actions (people in these periods are strongly inclined to follow such leaders where ever they take them), it is unlikely that we will see a dramatic change in government at this time.
Updated by catherineD at Sun Mar 13, 2011, 01:15:16 AM
A month of changes in the Middle East and a month of intense research proves this conclusion wrong. I believe I was relying too much on 19th century models, where democracy was not yet established in Europe or anywhere, and so had a quality of being "wrong." I also failed to take into account the way that Facebook and other media have not only helped people organize, but kept the emotion flowing with videos that the rulers can't control, even as people have been reinforced emotionally by the assurance that today they are outside the "norm" by retaining dictatorships; that their cause is virtuous.