I tried my best with Ohio to find a map that enhaces Democratic performance without making the map too ugly. I was not too friendly to Democratic incumbents, as some of them might have to fight harder than before. Anyway, there are no more than 4 safely Republican seats left in this map.
">Map statewide
map west
CD1 (blue):
Hamilton County is too red to make a safe Democratic seat in downtown Cincinnati. CD1 shifts east to shed Republican areas in western Hamilton County and Butler County. But the areas in Eastern Hamilton County it adds are pretty red as well. The district is 67% white, 26% black and 2.6% Hispanic in VAP. Obama carried it with 56.9% (was 55%), the Dem average is 53.5%. This district got slightly bluer, but still winnable for Chabot, depending esp. on AA turnout. Leans Republican with Chabot, Democratic-tilting tossup when open.
CD2 (green):
Jean Schmidt loses her part of Hamilton County, so I don't know whether she still lives in this district. The district takes in more rural counties in the Southeast instead. VAP: 94.5% W/2% B/1% H. Obama got only 36.3% (was 40%), Democratic average is 44.1%. The decisive action will still be in the Republican primary. Safe Republican.
CD3 (teal):
Montgomery County is a swing county and not big enough for its own congressional seat. I added Dem-friendly parts of Greene and Stark County instead of Republican counties. VAP: 77.5% W/17.2% B/1.9% H. Obama got 52% (was 47%), Democratic average is 51.1%. The district got quite a bit bluer, but I don't think it will be enough to dislodge Turner, who is still popular in Dayton. Steve Austria lives in this district as well, but he wouldn't stand a chance in the primary, so he will probably run in CD7. Turner is favored, but without him leans Democratic.
CD4 (red):
This is more or less my 'leftover'-district. Even though it adds and sheds quite a bit territory, its nature doesn't change too much. It got slightly redder, probably by losing Mansfield. VAP: 94.1% W/2.7% B/1.7% H. Obama 36.5% (was 38%). Jim Jordan doesn't live in this district anymore, he could run either in this district, which includes more of his old one, or in my CD7, which includes his home of Urbana. Bob Gibbs lives here, but the district includes only his home county from his old district, so he should be no danger for Jordan, should be decide to run here. Safe Republican.
CD5 (yellow):
As I decided that Marcy Kaptur could take one for the team and take in some more Republican territory from Bob Latta's district (including his home), this district changes completely and is now centered in Lorain County and takes in Ottawa and Erie County as well. VAP: 87.2% W/6.2% B/4.7% H. Obama carried this district with 53% (was 45%). The Democratic average is even higher with 57.6%. The district is open, as Latta now resides in the 9th CD and the district only includes very few of his old constituents. Democrat favored.
map east
CD6 (SlateBlue):
This district keeps its form. It takes in all of Mahoning County and sheds some Republican counties at its Southern end to CD2. VAP: 89.8% W/6.4% B/1.9% H. Obama carried it with 53.9% (was 48%), Democratic average is 67.8%, which I guess is due to over-performance by Strickland in his old district. Johnson should be toast in a rematch with Strickland or Wilson, as a local Democrat should run way better than Obama. Democrat favored.
CD7 (DarkMagenta):
This is another leftover district that sneaks around my CD3 and Columbus and takes in a lot of Republican territory. VAP: 93.5% W/3% B/1.2% H. Obama got 37% (was 45%), Democratic average 40%. Austria lives in Beavercreek, which is now in CD3, but he would probably lose there, already in the primary against Turner, or else in the GE. This district is safer, but Jim Jordan could run here as well. Safe Republican.
CD8 (grey):
Boehner keeps his strongly Republican district in Southwestern Ohio, now the most Republican in the state. VAP: 92.1% W/3.5% B/1.8% H. Obama got only 33.7% (was 38%), Democratic average is 36.4%. Safe Republican.
CD9 (cyan):
Marcy Kaptur keeps Lucas County as the anchor of her district, but then expands west, instead of east to include more Republican territory and Bob Latta's home. VAP: 81.5% W/11.2% B/4.6% H. Obama got 58.1% (was 62%), the Democratic average is 59.7%. Safe Democratic.
CD10 (DeepPink):
Dennis Kucinich is probably the unhappiest Democratic incumbent with this map. His district combines Western Cuyahoga County (though less than before) with Medina County and parts of Wayne County. This district only has a slight Democratic tilt, Kucinich will probably not be the right Democrat to keep it against Jim Renacci, who is drawn into this district as well. VAP: 93.3% W/1.8% B/2% H. Obama got 50.3% (was 59%), Democratic average is 55.7%. Tossup.
CD11 (chartreuse):
I tried to make the most AA district possible inside of Cuyahoga County for Marcia Fudge. The areas bordering Cuyahoga County are almost purely white, to enhance the AA majority you would have to stretch this district far into Summit County (as Republicans did with their map). Even though this district is only 50% AA in total population and even less in VAP, I think the VRA does not demand going far into Summit County to create an AA-majority district. Otherwise this map is obviously moot. VAP: 43.1% W/47.4% B/5.4% H. Obama got 82.8% (was 85%), Democratic average is even higher with 83.1%. Safe Democratic.
CD12 (CornflowerBlue):
I thought the best use of Democratic strength in Franklin County was to split it in half. I am not so sure anymore. Pat Tiberi gets a more compact district that includes only the northern part of Franklin County and parts of Delaware County including his home. This district also includes Upper Arlington, so Steve Stivers lives here as well, though he could also run in CD15 to avoid a primary fight that he should lose. VAP: 77.5% W/11.4% B/3.6% H. Obama won 54.3% (was 53%), the Democratic average is 52%. This district gets only slightly bluer, probably not enough to dislodge Tiberi (or even Stivers if he won the primary). Tiberi is favored, leans to Stivers but tilts slightly Democratic if open.
CD13 (DarkSalmon):
I used Betty Sutton's district to take Geauga County away from the rest of Steve LaTourette's district. He now lives in this district. Sutton also gains the rest of Summit County and loses Lorain County instead. There is a small spot in DarkSalmon in Northeastern Stark County as well, but that seems to be a glitch in DRA, as I only included Lawrence Township in the Northwestern corner of Stark County. VRA: 85% W/10.6% B/1.2% H. Obama got 54.9% (was 57%), the Democratic average is 59.4%. Except for wave years, Sutton should be fine even against Steve LaTourette. Leans Democrat against LaTourette, otherwise Democrat favored.
CD14 (olive):
The district loses Geauga County (and Steve LaTourette with that) and adds all of Trumbull and most of Portage Counties (and with that, Tim Ryan). He should be favored if LaTourette ran in this district, even though the district includes way more of LaTourette's old territory. VAP: 91.6% W/4.5% B/1.7% H. Obama got 54.4% (was 48%), the Democratic average is way higher at 60.8%. Leans Democratic against LaTourette, otherwise Democrat favored.
CD15 (orange):
This district now combines the Southern half of Franklin County with Fairfield County. Depending on whether Stivers runs here, it could be open or not. Given how blue it is, it should be hard even for Stivers to win here, as long as it is not against Kilroy. VAP: 71.2% W/21.8% B/3.4% H. Obama got 57.1% (was 54%), the Democratic average is also 57.1%. Leans Democratic against Stivers, otherwise Democrat favored.
CD16 (lime):
This district combines Stark County from Renacci's district with the leftovers from Bob Gibbs' district (mostly). Stark County is pretty swingy, as are the rural counties that are added to it. This makes a tossup district without a sitting congressman living in it, so it is ripe for the picking for a moderate former Democratic Congressman, be it Zach Space or John Boccieri. VAP: 92.6% W/4.5% B/1.1% H. Obama carried the district with 49.7% (was 48% in CD16 and 45% in CD18), but the Democratic average is 54.4%, so a local Democrat should over-perform Obama. Tossup, tilts Democratic I would think.
So this makes four safe Republican seats (2, 4, 7, 8) and three seats Republicans will probably hold because of strong, entrenched incumbents (1, 3, 12). Democrats should keep CDs 9, 11 and 13 and have a good chance of winning in open CDs 5, 14, 15 and 16 and of defeating Johnson in CD 6. In the meantime, there is a big danger of losing CD10, which is trending away from us anyway. That would be a 8 - 8 delegation assuming Chabot and Renacci win both CD1 and CD10, which should reflect the nature of Ohio as a swing state just fine.