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Steve Beshear
Steve Beshear
SurveyUSA for WHAS and Louisville Courier-Journal. 9/22-27. Likely voters. MoE ±4.2% (7/22-27 in parens):
Steve Beshear (D-inc): 57 (52)
David Williams (R): 26 (28)
Gatewood Galbraith (I): 8 (9)
Undecided: 9 (11)

Wow, things have gone from bad to worse for David Williams, the Republican state Senate majority leader that nobody seems to like. SurveyUSA's latest look at this race finds Democratic incumbent Gov. Steve Beshear increasing his lead over Williams (which looked improbably large back in July), not only picking up some of the undecideds but also changing a few people's minds on Williams, who has dwindled to 17/38 favorables, from 21/36 in September. Independent candidate Gatewood Galbraith, who has something of a left-libertarian orientation, seems to absorb a fair number of people who can't bring themselves to vote for Beshear, and that really just leaves Williams with the hardest-of-hardcore among the Republicans ... and not even all of them, as Beshear gets crossover votes from 28 percent of Republicans and even 24 percent of tea partiers.

You know what's weird? This once-considered-competitive race may wind up not even being the closest governor's race on Election Day in November. While there's very little chance of Johnny DuPree winning the governor's race in Mississippi, the racially polarized nature of the state's electorate pretty much guarantees DuPree a floor of close to 40 percent. That by itself would put him closer to Phil Bryant than Williams seems likely to get to Beshear.

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