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It's game day at Daily Kos Elections, and that, as always, means it's time for a predictions thread. How do you think acting Gov. Earl Ray Tomblin will fare in his bid for an abbreviated but permanent gubernatorial term? Will the state's historic Democratic lean at the state level, and his apparent advantage in early voting so far, be enough to get him to win? Or does the late surge of Bill Maloney (I wonder why no one has noticed before that his name spoonerizes into Baloney Mill?), fueled by an RGA ad blitz and as seen by PPP's weekend poll, have enough momentum to not only get him close but over the top? There's no babka (or any other more West Virginia-appropriate treat... shoo fly pie, maybe?) up for grabs, but let us know your predictions.

Also, if you're going to be watching closely as the results come in tonight, here's a set of benchmarks for the state's largest counties, so you can see if Tomblin's votes are coming in at a winning pace in each county. This uses the 2008 presidential election as a starting point, so it doesn't account for any regional pockets of support the candidates might have in particular, but it should give you the lay of the land. (You should also check twohundertseventy's helpful diary, which includes a range of results from various races.)

County % of 2008
statewide vote
What we need to
break 50% statewide
2008 Pres.
Statewide 100.0 50/49 43/56
Kanawha 11.6 56/42 49/49
Berkeley 5.2 50/49 43/56
Wood 5.1 42/56 35/63
Cabell 4.9 51/47 44/54
Monongalia 4.7 58/40 51/47
Harrison 4.5 49/49 42/56
Raleigh 4.0 43/55 36/62
Putnam 3.5 45/54 38/61
Marion 3.3 56/41 49/48
Jefferson 3.2 59/40 52/47
Mercer 2.9 42/56 35/63
Ohio 2.7 51/48 44/55
Wayne 2.2 47/51 40/58
Fayette 2.1 55/43 48/50
Marshall 2.0 50/48 43/55

Polls close at 7:30 Eastern time (4:30 Pacific), and we'll be liveblogging.

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