Did Charlie Cook just answer Rick Perry's prayers? (Jonathan Ernst/Reuters)
Charlie Cook isn't guaranteeing that Rick Perry will win the GOP nomination, but he
makes the case that it's Perry's to lose:
Perry has shown a proclivity to step on his own body parts and will undoubtedly do so again. The question is whether he learns from his mistakes. If he does, he will be the GOP nominee and stands a fair chance of beating President Obama, given the horrific economy and the public’s loss of confidence in the president. If he doesn’t and isn’t more careful about what he says and how he says it, Perry will either lose the nomination, or he will win it and then lose a general election that’s there for the taking. Simple as that.
That's basically my take, too, though I suspect Cook's definition of "fair chance" and mine are a bit different (I'd say Perry is at least a 2:1 dog to win the general, and probably worse). Cook's basic rationale:
Clearly, most Republican voters would much prefer a very, very, very conservative nominee to the more buttoned-down Romney. [...] It’s unclear whether they want, or will end up supporting, Perry—but, obviously, they want a Perry-like conservative.
The question, Cook says, is whether Perry can convince them he's capable of being a national candidate—not just a regional Southern candidate from Texas.
Based on Perry's swift collapse over the past few weeks and the conventional wisdom emanating from most pundits, it's tempting to say that the question's already been answered, but Romney's weakness means that Perry or another Republican currently running will get another shot at rising to to the top. Perry is in the best position to do that, not just because of his fundraising ability but also because he's been a fairly successful politician his entire adult life. You don't serve as governor of Texas for ten years and counting without having some political skill, and given the shallowness of Romney's support, he still has every opportunity to clinch the GOP nomination.