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Those who are familiar with Florida redistricting know that this year is different in that the Fair District Amendments 5 and 6 passed last fall. These amendment put more constraints on the Republican legislature to create more fair districts. While I believe the effects wont be that great at the Congressional level (+1-2 seats for the Dems), the effects are profound at the State Senate where we already are having debates in committee. This diary will show you what we as Dems may end up pushing in the courts.

You can see the plan here: http://www.flsenate.gov/...

This map would end up creating a 22-18 Republican map in most neutral years, with 16 safe Republican seats, 17 safe Democratic seats, and 7 tossups. This is a vast improvement over the current map where only 12 seats are safely Democratic and only 3 more are dem-leaning tossups. This map was recently altered however, where the two panhandle seats becomes split east-west as opposed to north-south, so it can respect the rural and beach area communities of interest. It did not effect the other districts.

Panhandle:

District 2: Safe Rep
District 4: Safe Rep

District 6: The Tallahassee based seat, becomes more Dem-friendly at 56% Obama (old 54 Obama) because it adds AA heavy Madison and Hamilton Counties and loses ultra-conservative Suwannee and Lafayette. Safe for Montford or any other Dem

District 14: This Gainesville seat is drifting away from us as the rural counties become more Republican. Currently at 49 Obama its still competitive, especially for a Rod Smith type of Democrat, but it'll likely be outta reach by the end of the decade. Tossup/ Lean Rep now, Safe Rep end of decade

District 3: Ocala-based seat, becomes more competitive especially for a blue-dog, but at 46 Obama its kinda a long shot. Likely Rep

District 1: Since this wasnt an AA protected seat, I had a hard choice here. I decided to make a compact downtown Jacksonville seat that gave the AA community a huge influence, and at 39 percent Voting Age population, I think I suceeded. Safe Dem

District 5: Jacksonville northern suburbs. Safe Rep

District 8: Jacksonville southern suburbs and St Augustine. Safe Rep for Thrasher or any Rep

District 7: Becomes a Volusia and Flagler County seat, at 51 Obama and 49 Sink, its definitely competitive. Open due to the retirement of popular moderate Sen Lynn. Tossup

District 11: Contains ultra Republican The Villages and surrounding counties. Safe Rep

District 12: Becomes a Pasco County only district, it leans Rep but it has become swingy in the last decade. 48 Obama, 46 Sink I believe. Tossup/ lean Rep

District 13: Northern Pinellas County, becomes a 53 Obama district. Pinellas keeps trending blue as it was one of 4 counties that voted for Charlie Crist and Alex Sink last year. Likely Dem now, Safe Dem later this decade

District 10: Southern Pinellas County, contains Dem strongholds of St Petersburg and Clearwater, its 56-43 Obama numbers mask its stronger local performance. Safe Dem

District 9: Northern Hillsborough County, at 49 Obama its becoming more swingy but definitely more Rep at the local level. Contains Plant City and Alex Sink's home in Thonotosassa. Tossup/ lean Rep

District 16: Tampa based minority-majority district. Safe Dem

District 18: Southern Hillsborough County seat. Safe Rep

District 28: Rural exurbs of Tampa, very Republican. Safe Rep

District 19: The weird shape was necessary to make a Hispanic-majority seat based in Kissimmee.  This became a 49 Obama seat, but more Rep at the local level. Tossup/ lean Rep

District 17: Hispanic-majority Disneyland seat. The place where Dem fortunes do come true. Safe Dem

District 15: Orlando-based seat, has a 25 percent AA voting age and 15 percent Hispanic. Safe Dem

District 22: This Seminole County seat leans Rep at first glance, but also now contains the large and powerful UCF campus community which is rapidly changing the prospects in the area. Lean Rep for now, Likely Dem by the end of the decade

District 24: This space coast seat leaned Rep already, but now after the Obama administration's stupid blunder on ending NASA, its likely gone for good. Safe Rep

District 26: Contains Vero Beach and Melbourne, some of the best surfing areas on the east coast, at 49 Obama its competitive for the right kind of Democrat. Tossup/ lean Rep

District 29: This seat becomes more competitive as ancestrally conservative Dem areas in Okechobee and St Lucie County are added. Tossup/ lean Dem

District 20: Rural central Florida seat, Safe Rep

District 23: Becomes a 52 Obama seat based in coastal Manatee and Sarasota Counties. Perfect for a strong Sarasota Dem like former Rep. Keith Fitzgerald. Lean Dem

District 21: Fort Meyers area seat, at 45 Obama, its too far out of reach. Safe Rep

District 27: Naples based seat, home of Gov Rick Scott. Safe Rep

District 39: Looks this way because I was able to create a new Hispanic-majority seat that is mainly rural South Fl counties. These are mostly Cubans mind you, Safe Rep

District 30: West Palm Beach based seat, Safe Dem

District 25: Boca Raton based seat, becomes 65 Obama and Safe Dem. Its a miracle what undoing years of South FL gerrymanders can do

District 32: North Broward and South Palm Beach had to lose a seat, so Bogdanoff and Ring get combined in this 59 Obama seat. Safe Dem

District 33: Minority-majority seat based in Lauderhill/ Lauderdale Lakes. At 47 percent AA voting age population, itll elect an AA senator. Safe Dem

District 34: West Broward seat, becomes majority-minority. Safe Dem

District 31: Hollywood, Ft Lauderdale and Plantation. Safe Dem for Eleanor Sobel

District 40: Hialeh based seat. Hispanic majority and Safe Rep

District 36: AA majority Liberty City based seat. Safe Dem

District 37: Hispanic majority Cuban seat. Safe Rep

District 35: Becomes Hispanic majority seat based in Miami Beach. Safe Dem whether for the legendary Gwen Margolis or anyone else

District 38: Key West and Homestead, becomes a Hispanic majority seat, Bullard wont like it has to happen. Safe Dem

There you have it, let me know if there are any glaring problems with this map as I have to testify on Northeast and Central Florida next week

Poll

Does this meet Fair District Standards ?

61%8 votes
30%4 votes
7%1 votes

| 13 votes | Vote | Results

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