We know that PVI doesn't always match up with a state's lean (look at WV for an example). I decided to see what would happen if, instead of using PVI, we were to look at a modified version of Rasmussen Reports "intensity" score.
The only positive thing I can say about Rasmussen, besides that they no longer are polling states left and right, is that they had categories of strongly approve and strongly disapprove and used these to create an "intensity score." While we as humans are more likely to strongly disapprove of someone (thus helping them drive the narrative of Obama being uber unpopular), this idea has some merit.
I decided to see a state's "intensity" by looking at the percentage of voters who identified as conservative in 2008 minus the percentage who identified as liberal. Keep in mind that there are only seven states where liberals outnumber conservatives. I then ranked the states.
The 18 GOP States:
Top 5:
Alabama
Utah
Mississippi
Arkansas
Texas
The first three are not very surprising. Arkansas is extremely high up. While it's a Democratic-leaning state at the local level, it's becoming redder and redder from the top down. I'd wager Mark Pryor's the last Democratic Senator from Arkansas for a long long time. I'd also guess that the older generations were more moderate and while certainly not liberal Democrats, were more New Deal in style. Arkansas is one of five states with a Democratic senator among the Safely Red states.
Many Democrats talk about Texas, but Texas (a) has the fourth highest percentage of conservatives in the country and (b) is redder than Idaho on the intensity scale. Texas is further from becoming purple than many of us realize, if it gets there at all.
The Next Five:
Idaho
Tennessee
Louisiana
Georgia
Wyoming
Wyoming's actually lower than I'd have expected it. Tennessee and Louisiana were blue locally in the 90s but not so much today. Georgia, like Texas, is further from flipping than we realize. Mary Landrieu's the only Dem Senator in these five, and I can't fathom how she survives 2014.
The Four You Thought Would Be Higher:
Oklahoma
South Carolina
Alaska
Kansas
Oklahoma was McCain's best state, but it's only 11th on this list. Alaska has a Dem senator, but he's a fluke. Kansas hasn't had a Dem senator since before my grandma was born, and she campaigned for Wendell Willkie! South Carolina is South Carolina.
The Last Four Red States:
Kentucky
North Dakota
South Dakota
Nebraska
All of these four still tend to at least consider Democratic candidates. While in terms of PVI states like Georgia and South Carolina are less red, the "intensity score" could show why Democrats still hold offices in all four of these states. Kentucky is much better for Team Blue than Arkansas, a state many often compare it to. The Dakotas both have one senator from each party, although by 2014 they may both be gone. Nebraska is, shockingly, the bluest of the states considered bright red on a state level. This could explain Ben Nelson's fighting chance; while many Nebraskans are Republican, a large percentage of them are moderate and at least open to backing him.
Six GOP-Leaning Swing States:
Colorado
North Carolina
Iowa
Missouri
West Virginia
Indiana
If I were a Republican presidential candidate, I'd be prioritizing Colorado over North Carolina or Iowa in the general election. West Virginia, as you can see, drastically outperforms its PVI, as does Indiana, to some extent (maybe 2008 wasn't such a fluke after all?) Missouri slightly outdoes its PVI, good news for McCaskill. Colorado, on the other hand, has a very conservative GOP, which can hurt in primaries but gives the nominees a solid floor.
The Pure Toss-Ups:
Florida
Arizona
Ohio
Montana
Nevada
New Hampshire
Virginia
5 of these 7 are no surprise to anyone mildly familiar with politics. Virginia being Dem-tilting is the new reality, not an aberration. Arizona surprised me. By PVI, it should be about 19th, but instead its 26th, quite a large difference. Montana's ranking here is good news for Jon Tester. Just like Nelson in Nebraska, his state seems to have a better intensity rating for him than PVI, being ranked as a swing state due to a strong base and many moderates.
The Dem Leaners:
New Mexico
Oregon
Wisconsin
Illinois
Michigan
Illinois and Wisconsin have the same intensity score. That should probably make Tammy Baldwin happy. Oregon being below Wisconsin could explain Kitzhaber's close election last year.
Yes, We're Blue, But We Still Have More Conservatives than Liberals:
Washington
California
Delaware
Minnesota
Pennsylvania
Maine
I'm not sure what to say about Pennsylvania. It's a weird state; many conservaDems out West, many moderate Republicans in the East. The fact that it's got a better liberal:conservative ratio than California or Delaware? Strange. Maine's high up as well; lots of liberals in New England and lots of Rockefeller Republicans (hint: they're not identifying as conservative). Minnesota also outdoes its PVI by quite a bit; it's every bit as ancestrally Democratic as West Virginia, after all.
The Awkward State:
New Jersey
Equal number of liberals and conservatives. The Republicans always try and fail here when running for Senate. Maybe because moderates only need to go 51-49 Dem and the Dems win.
GOP Outta Luck:
Connecticut
Maryland
Rhode Island
Hawaii
New York
Vermont
Massachusetts
Scott Brown, your state has the WORST ratio for your party and you're not really super moderate. Goodbye. No real surprises here.
So does this explain anything better than PVI?
Maybe yes, maybe no. Maybe we should combine the two. I'm not sure, but here's another set of data