Herman Cain is for real. For now. (Pool/Reuters)
Hart-McInturff for NBC/WSJ (PDF). 10/6-10. Republicans. MoE 5.35%. (August and September results).
Yesterday's
PPP poll showed substantially the same results, although it put Gingrich ahead of both Perry and Paul. But the basic contours of the trend are clear: Cain is ascendant, in a big way; Romney is stuck in neutral, if not down a little bit from his peak; Perry is way off his peak, but nonetheless a top tier candidate despite having entered the race just a couple of months ago. Gingrich continues to have the ability seduce a small slice of the GOP electorate, as does Bachmann, but she's still trying to figure out how to come back from her spectacular implosion after the Ames Straw Poll.
The best piece of news for the field collectively is that Republicans are finally happy with their candidates, at least for the most part. 63% say they are pleased with their choices, up from 45% in June. That compares favorably to 57% who were satisfied in January of 2008, though it's slightly less than the 65% who were satisfied in June of 2007.
Of course, the fact that Republicans are becoming satisfied with their field is also good news for President Obama, because these Republicans really suck. NBC and WSJ also surveyed the public at large, and Obama leads each of the top three contenders, besting Cain by a 49%-38% margin, Romney by a 46%-44% margin, and Perry by a 51%-39% margin.
According to the poll, just 20% of Republicans say their top priority is nominating a candidate who can beat President Obama. 46% want a candidate who agrees with their views and 32% want a strong leader. Given those numbers, it's no surprise that Cain and Perry—who trail President Obama by double-digits—have a combined 43% level of support, nearly twice that of Mitt Romney. In fact, 71% of Republicans say they support a candidate other than Romney, even though every bit of available evidence suggest Romney is their most electable candidate.
8:51 AM PT: Fixed link to full poll data.