It appears that Martin O'Malley has settled on only trying to get 7 Democrats out of Maryland. His proposed map would turn Andy Harris' district into a Republican vote sink that we probably would have lost even in 2008. However, things don't have to be this way. We can make Harris' district winnable for us while making the other seven incumbents plenty safe and satisfying Donna Edwards' BS whining about losing Montgomery County.
Here is the whole state. Averages are from 2006 and 2008.
MD-01
Incumbent: OPEN
Old Vote: Obama 40 McCain 58
New Vote: Obama 45 McCain 53
Average: Dem 48 Rep 52
Description: This district contains the entire Eastern Shore then crosses the Chesapeake Bay Bridge into Anne Arundel County and continues into PGCo, grabbing such communities as Bowie, Greenbelt, and South Laurel. This district probably favors an Eastern Shore Democrat even in the primary, and in the general Democrats can be very competitive here, as evidenced by the average.
MD-02
Incumbent: Dutch Ruppersberger (D-Cockeysville)
Old Vote: Obama 60 McCain 38
New Vote: Obama 60 McCain 38
Average: Dem 65 Rep 35
Description: Although this district moves some territory around to smoothen out the lines a bit, it's basically the same district, and Dutch should be fine both in the primary and general.
MD-03
Incumbent: John Sarbanes (D-Towson)
Old Vote: Obama 59 McCain 39
New Vote: Obama 60 McCain 38
Average: Dem 62 Rep 38
Description: The district drops its southern appendage and compacts a bit by gaining much of HoCo and a little nub into PGCo. Not only does this make the district much cleaner looking, it also makes it a bit bluer.
MD-04
Incumbent: Donna Edwards (D-Fort Washington)
Old Vote: Obama 85 McCain 14
New Vote: Obama 74 McCain 25
Average: Dem 72 Rep 28
Description: Donna Edwards is unhappy about losing Montgomery County because she wants a fundraising base. This map proves that it is possible for her to keep a little bit of MontCo while still screwing over Roscoe Bartlett. Her district also stays majority African-American (50.3% by VAP). However, as punishment for her disloyalty, she must deal with the comically dedicated racists of Carroll County/western HoCo.
MD-05
Incumbent: Steny Hoyer (D-Mechanicsville)
Old Vote: Obama 65 McCain 33
New Vote: Obama 64 McCain 35
Average: Dem 64 Rep 36
Description: Hoyer should be really happy with this district. He retains most of his territory, it's the bluest non-VRA district in the state, and he gets safer in the primary as the district drops to 33% black from its current 37%. Still, once he retires, there's a very good chance this district could elect an African-American representative.
MD-06
Incumbent: Roscoe Bartlett (R-Frederick)
Old Vote: Obama 40 McCain 58
New Vote: Obama 63 McCain 35
Average: Dem 63 Rep 37
Description: I scoff at the weaksauce ~56% Obama district O'Malley gave Bartlett when in reality it is not only possible but very simple to screw him over. In fact, I accidentally made Bartlett's district even bluer than Van Hollen's, though that is easy to change. Anyway, needless to say Bartlett is a dead man walking here.
MD-07
Incumbent: Andy Harris (R-Cockeysville), Elijah Cummings (D-Baltimore)
Old Vote: Obama 79 McCain 20
New Vote: Obama 67 McCain 32
Average: Dem 65 Rep 35
Description: Elijah Cummings is happy with O'Malley's proposed district which gives him a lot of Republicans in BaltCo, so hopefully he could stomach this. In fact, if anything this is even better for him because this district includes a lot of conservative whites, meaning that the primary electorate will be overwhelmingly black (unless the whites are comically dedicated racists). This district is 51.7% black among adults.
MD-08
Incumbent: Chris Van Hollen (D-Kensington)
Old Vote: Obama 74 McCain 25
New Vote: Obama 62 McCain 36
Average: Dem 63 Rep 37
Description: Well, I'm sure Van Hollen isn't going to like representing the right-wing nutjobs in the Maryland panhandle. But he gets blue Hagerstown and gets to keep a lot of MontCo plus his little bite of PGCo. In fact, I think O'Malley's proposed district is only like 60% Obama, so Van Hollen should appreciate having a slightly bluer district.
That's it! Thoughts?