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Gov. Steve Beshear (D)

Braun Research for cn|2. 10/17-19. 'Very likely' voters. MoE ±3.5%.(8/29-31 in parens):


Steve Beshear (D-inc): 54 (54)
David Williams (R): 26 (25)
Gatewood Galbraith (I): 8 (7)
Undecided: 12 (14)

Attorney General:

Jack Conway (D-inc): 56 (53)
Todd P'Pool (R): 27 (26)
Undecided: 17 (20)


Adam Edelen (D): 39 (32)
John Kemper (R): 29 (29)
Undecided: 32 (40)

Secretary of State:

Alison Lundergan Grimes (D): 41 (37)
Bill Johnson (R): 30 (28)
Undecided: 35 (35)


Todd Hollenbach (D): 47 (43)
K.C. Crosbie (R): 22 (21)
Ken Moellman (L): 4 (5)
Undecided: 27 (31)

Commissioner of Agriculture:

Bob Farmer (D): 45 (45)
James Comer (R): 29 (26)
Undecided: 26 (29)

With a few weeks to go, the Kentucky governor's race is looking like a stroll across the finish line for incumbent Dem Steve Beshear. That shouldn't come as any surprise for anyone who's been following the polls for the last few months, where other pollsters have also found Beshear in the upper 50s and Republican opponent David Williams in the upper 20s, a bizarre place for any Republican, even one as unlikeable as Williams, to be in a red state.

At this point, the big question mark in the Bluegrass State is the downballot races, and as people finally make up their minds (most of the races don't feature incumbents, and although the state has been historically pretty Dem-friendly at the state level, open seats should theoretically present a lot of danger to Dems), it looks like they're gravitating more toward the Democratic candidates. In all races but the Ag Commissioner race (where people may just now be figuring out that Dem candidate Bob Farmer isn't the same as retiring Republican incumbent Richie Farmer), more undecideds have broken toward the Dems than the GOPers.

That's good news for building a Democratic bench in the state, where likely new SoS Alison Lundergan Grimes is considered a rising star and AG Jack Conway (despite all the political pundits, after his loss to Rand Paul in last year's Senate race, declaring in their gruff voices that "you're all washed up, kid; you'll never work in this town again") retains considerable popularity. Beshear won't be running again in 2015, and maybe more significantly, majority leader Mitch McConnell is up again in 2014 and has been sporting danger-zone approval ratings in recent polling (37/50 according to PPP last month).

Speaking of Conway, the notorious "Aqua Buddha" ad that was his Hail Mary pass at the end of last year's Senatorial campaign is making a return appearance: Republican opponent Todd P'Pool is referring back to Conway's ad as his closing argument in his own advertisement, as evidence of Conway's values-free insanity, or something like that. Facing a Kobayashi Maru-style scenario of his own right now, I guess it's most logical for P'Pool to be throwing a Hail Mary of his own right now.

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