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Leading Off:

FL-22: Did you notice that GOP freshman Allen West managed to spend an amazing $1.4 million in the third quarter? West has long been notorious for raising money via direct mail, a scammy and expensive method which typically leads both to high receipts and expenditures. But last year, he managed to slow this absurd burn rate a bit, at least for one quarter. Now, though, he's back to his old ways, spending heavily on firms with mostly unfamiliar names like Vertis Communications, Mail America Communications, and Response America. In the past, he'd worked with the notorious BMW Direct/Base Connect, but I guess these days he's become more fickle. Regardless of who's making a mint off him, the fact that West's churning and burning like this is only a good sign for his opponents.

Senate:

NE-Sen: Aw, seriously? Ben Nelson hasn't made up his mind about whether he's seeking a third term yet? I didn't even realize this was still a subject for discussion, especially considering that the DSCC has already spent $800K on ads on his behalf. What's more, back in April, DSCC chair Patty Murray said (in Dave Catanese's phrasing) that "she was confident all of the remaining incumbents were running for reelection." Of course, Herb Kohl bailed a month later, but still, this is awfully late to be playing this sort of game. Now, I know it's easy to have mixed feelings about Nelson—he's a sucky Democrat, and his chances of winning next year aren't particularly good. But I can't imagine any Nebraska Dem has better odds, and if he doesn't run, that makes retaining the Senate even less likely. Of course, he pulled this Hamlet act back in 2006 as well, and Chuck Schumer supposedly had to coax him into running again, so it's not like being a pain-in-the-ass is anything new for Nelson.

OH-Sen: Ah, damn. Former state Sen. Kevin Coughlin just quietly dropped his Senate bid, filing a notice of termination (PDF) with the FEC rather than a standard fundraising report. While Coughlin had little chance of capturing the GOP nomination, I had hopes that he'd cause problems for state Treasurer Josh Mandel, since Coughlin had anointed himself as the "true conservative" in the race. But he must have given up the ghost some time ago, because he only took in $10K in the third quarter. Oh well.

OH-Sen: For as long as he remains active in politics, 2010 OH-09 GOP candidate Rich Iott will always provide good fodder for headlines:

Nazi reenactor gave Mandel $1,000
Gubernatorial:

HI-Gov: After a long year of watching John Kasich and Rick Scott duke it out for the title of "least popular governor in America," the newest contender is… Democratic Hawaii Gov. Neil Abercrombie? Yes, says PPP, who finds his approval rating dropping from 48-41 in March all the way to 30-56 today. Tom thinks Abercrombie's fall might be making Linda Lingle look good by comparison, but I'm really more curious to know why Abercrombie's doing so poorly in the first place. Kasich and Scott have been pursuing divisive policies in swing states, while Hawaii of course is solidly blue. So what gives?

LA-Gov/LG/SoS: On Saturday, GOP Gov. Bobby Jindal was swept to re-election with 66% of the vote. Though nominally a (jungle) primary, Jindal doesn't have to face a second round in November because he cleared the 50% mark. Meanwhile, in the Lt. Gov. race, incumbent Jay Dardenne held off Plaquemines Parish President Billy Nungesser, but by a closer-than-expected 53-47 margin. And in the Secretary of State contest, SoS Tom Schedler looks to have held off House Speaker Jim Tucker by an exceptionally close 50.5-49.5 spread.

MO-Gov: Alpha Packaging CEO Dave Spence, whose name first surfaced late last week, confirms he's interested in running for governor if Lt. Gov. Peter Kinder decides not to. Spence calls Kinder a "friend" and says they've spoken "several times by phone," but that he doesn't know what Kinder's plans are. For more background on Spence, one word: plastics. ("Our capabilities include superior-quality injection and injection stretch blow molding, as well as extrusion blow molding.")

NH-Gov: Former Dem state Sen. Maggie Hassan, whose interest in running for governor has been well-established for some time, will reportedly launch her campaign today.

VA-Gov: I've probably told this story before, but as wise man once said to me, "I'd rather get new friends that new stories." Anyhow, many, many years ago, a cousin of mine came home from a job interview one day and excitedly told my father that the company said they'd call him back in December. My father's response: "They didn't tell you which December."

Of course, my dad was right (my cousin was still waiting for that call when he passed away…), and now this is the dodge that AG Ken Cuccinelli is trying to use, too. Since getting elected in 2009, Cuccinelli has been locked in an awkward dance with Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling, who likes to act as though he's the GOP heir apparent to the governor's mansion. Cuccinelli had been careful not to dispel Bolling's illusions, lest he foment an early start to open hostilities—until last week, when he told a high school student that there's a "good chance" he'll run for the statehouse. A spokesman tried to clarify, saying his boss didn't specify when he might run… but yeah, sure, whatever. Anyhow, the linked article has an interesting run-down on Virginia attorneys general who have tried to move up. Impressive stat: 10 of the last 11 before Cuccinelli have run for governor, and since 1958, five have won.

House:

AZ-04: Pinal County Sheriff Paul Babeu says he may seek the GOP nod for the proposed new 4th CD, a huge district stretching from the center of Arizona to its western border—and which doesn't quite have an incumbent at the moment (though Rep. Paul Gosar could run there). Babeu's camp says he won't decide until next year, though.

GA-10: Sounds a bit like a Some Dude, but businessman and Army vet Stephen Simpson just announced a challenge to Rep. Paul Broun in the Republican primary. Former GOP Rep. Mac Collins is also thinking about a run.

IL-12, IL-13: Over the weekend, Jason Plummer, the 2010 Republican Lt. Gov. nominee, officially entered the race in the 12th CD, which retiring Dem Rep. Jerry Costello is leaving open. Plummer's name first came up as a possible contender in September, but earlier this month, he said he was "leaning toward" a run in the 13th CD instead. I thought that made no sense, because GOP Rep. Tim Johnson is already running there, and evidently, Plummer agreed.

MD-04: Anne Arundel County Councilman Jamie Benoit says he is "not ruling out a run" in the Democratic primary against Rep. Donna Edwards, whose apparent fear of exactly this sort of development led her to (unsuccessfully) oppose the state's new redistricting map. Benoit, however, is white, and the district is still majority black (meaning the Democratic electorate is even more so). The linked report in Anne Arundel Politics also suggests that former Prince George's County State's Attorney Glenn Ivey could also run; given that both Ivey (who is black) and Edwards are from PG, they could conceivably split the vote. However, Ivey is at nothing more than the "rumored" stage—he considered a run last cycle but declined.

MD-06: Though he hasn't actually announced his candidacy for the redrawn 6th CD yet, Dem state Sen. Rob Garagiola is already rolling out endorsements from a bunch of fellow legislators. I thought this was an interesting side-note from the WaPo's Ben Pershing:

It’s not clear whether any other high-profile Democrats will enter the race. With the help of a Garagiola ally, state Senate President Thomas V. Mike Miller Jr. (D-Calvert), the 6th District was drawn in such a way that it excludes the households of many prominent Montgomery Democrats who might be interested in a congressional run.

Asked this month whether he would consider a bid, former Montgomery county executive Douglas M. Duncan (D), a Rockville resident, said: “I don’t live in the district.” Duncan did not respond to subsequent phone calls seeking further comment.

Relatedly, the Baltimore Sun says that the new 6th is now a 56% Obama district (all the way up from 40%).

MN-06: Teacher and military vet Mike Starr says he may run against Michele Bachmann and will decide in the next couple of weeks. Starr narrowly lost a race against GOP state Sen. Mike Jungbauer in 2006, by a 51-49 margin.

OR-01: Dem state Sen. Suzanne Bonamici has a new ad out, a soft spot featuring mostly older folks talking into the camera about how they think she'll protect Social Security and Medicare:

SD-AL: Tim Johnson staffer Matt Varilek, whose name first emerged as a possible challenger to GOP freshman Kristi Noem back in May, says he doesn't "have a timetable" for getting into the race but he's "still interested." Another Democrat, Minehaha County Commissioner Jeff Barth, has been in the race for a while, but he raised just $8K in the third quarter. Noem raised $285K and has an impressive $790K on hand.

Other Races:

OH SB5: We Are Ohio is out with two new ads opposing the anti-collective bargaining bill SB5, on the ballot next month as Issue 2. Both focus on the response times for first responders, arguing that SB5 would prohibit negotiations over appropriate staffing levels. The stronger spot, in my view, is at the first link & below. (You can watch the other one here.)

WA-St. Sen.: Here's a sad story: 41-year-old Democratic state Sen. Scott White (both a freshman and majority whip, which tells you what you need to know about his rapidly-rising-star status) unexpectedly died last Friday of a previously undiagnosed heart condition. He leaves behind children ages 5 and 3. (Vacant legislative seats in Washington are filled until the next general election by appointment rather than special election, and at any rate, the north Seattle-based 46th went 83% for Obama in 2008.) (David Jarman)

Grab Bag:

Caucuses: An interesting piece from Politico on how both the House and Senate Tea Party Caucuses have turned out to be total busts.

Fundraising: In case you haven't seen it yet, we just published our massive third quarter House fundraising chart, with numbers for over 450 campaigns. And f you're looking for Senate stats, Roll Call has a good chart as well.

Redistricting Roundup:

WI Redistricting: I find this kind of redistricting story very interesting. Wisconsin, like a number of other states, has staggered, four-year state Senate terms: That is to say, half the seats in the chamber are up every two years. This causes problems during redistricting because map-makers are at risk of moving people from districts which have their next election in 2012 to those which aren't up until 2014, something which courts tend to view as a form of disfranchisement. Indeed, in a ruling late last week, the 7th Circuit Court of Appeals a three-judge panel of the Eastern District of Wisconsin strongly suggested that it thinks Wisconsin Republicans have done exactly this, by shifting some 300,000 voters into seats which won't hold new elections for another three years. A similar case thirty years ago found that legislative maps which unnecessarily moved 174K voters constituted a constitutional violation.

Of course, the GOP engaged in such radical remapping in order to screw Democrats, so if they're forced to go back to the drawing board (or if a court does it for them), that could have some very salutary effects on Dem chances of retaking the Senate in 2012. On a related note, it now sounds like Republicans are thinking about passing new legislation to move up the effective date of the district lines so that they'd be used for any recalls this year. (After the Government Accountability Board ruled that the old lines govern, it sounded like the GOP wasn't interested in pursuing a legislative over-ride.) But if they're forced to scale back the aggressiveness of the new map, then perhaps changing its effective date won't be a priority.

By the way, if this issue sounds vaguely familiar, it may be because some people have raised similar concerns about California's new upper-chamber map. There, though, the issue hasn't arisen because of aggressive partisan gerrymandering but rather from a nonsensical provision in the law creating the state's new redistricting commission which mandates automatic numbering of new districts from north to south. (It's also why the congressional district numbers are such a chaotic mess.)

Originally posted to Daily Kos Elections on Tue Oct 25, 2011 at 05:00 AM PDT.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Tip Jar (6+ / 0-)

    Political Director, Daily Kos

    by David Nir on Tue Oct 25, 2011 at 05:00:02 AM PDT

  •  SD-AL: Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin should (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    James Allen, drhoosierdem, tle, itskevin

    run again. Is Tim Johnson going to retire? She would have an easier time running for Senate from an at-large seat. If she doesn't run and another Democrat wins, then she will have to face him/her in likelihood in 2014. Or she will have to face Kristie Noem. I don't know why she's so hesitant. A lot of people seem to think she can beat Noem in 2012.

    20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

    by ndrwmls10 on Tue Oct 25, 2011 at 05:06:25 AM PDT

  •  Current polling, showing strong (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    TofG, LordMike, filby, itskevin

    support against SB5 in Ohio, is worth watching.  I'm hoping hard to see Ohio voters reject John Kasich's version of public service.  

    IMO the outcome of that vote Nov. 8 will greatly influence the effort in Wisconsin to recall Scott Walker.  

  •  OH-Sen: (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    James Allen, TofG

    Is Mandel really well liked by the base? If not, will someone else try to win the nomination and at least make Mandel work for it?

    •  The base is fine with Mandel... (0+ / 0-)

      ...I doubt there will be a challenge.  No one really wants to go up against Sherrod Brown.

      GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

      by LordMike on Tue Oct 25, 2011 at 09:01:09 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Only 5 years in the Senate (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        filby, TofG

        But I think Brown could someday be an Ohio icon.  He has a future beyond being the Senior Senator of OH.  Could be a unique VP pick in 2016.

        •  If the state moves to the right in the (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          jncca

          next few decades Ohio Democrats may well remember him  the same way Texas Democrats remember Ralph Yarborough.

          "Every daring attempt to make a great change in existing conditions, every lofty vision of new possibilities for the human race, has been labeled Utopian."

          by xcave on Tue Oct 25, 2011 at 09:43:42 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Ohio isn't moving to the right (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            TofG

            The only flaw in your theory. It's practically cast in granite that this is a half & half state. It's not moving anywhere, except maybe a tad to the left thanks to Kasich.

            Take the "Can't(or)" out of Congress. Support E. Wayne Powell in Va-07. http://www.ewaynepowell.com/

            by anastasia p on Tue Oct 25, 2011 at 01:41:12 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

      •  Mandel is fine with it (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        LordMike

        because he's confident that his corporate puppetmasters can outspend Sherrod 5-1, and win this seat for him. And it's possible. Mandel is so empty and so thoroughly owned, they want him in really bad. And they want him on fast-track to the White House. i hear they are using the "Obama didn't have much experience  either" excuse already. The difference is that Obama didn't have too much experience in elected office, but he had experience – and a well-defined and thoughtful set of positions.

        Mandel stands for nothing other than serving his donors.

        Take the "Can't(or)" out of Congress. Support E. Wayne Powell in Va-07. http://www.ewaynepowell.com/

        by anastasia p on Tue Oct 25, 2011 at 01:43:31 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  I would think that a Teabagger wouldn't (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        LordMike

        be concerned with going up against Brown. They aren't operating with the same blinders as most people. But if they are happy with Mandel, then that's that.

    •  Mandel is The Empty Suit (0+ / 0-)

      he will have more money than God to run ads presenting himself as the fresh-faced boyish VETERAN I'M A VETERAN I SERVED TWO TOURS IN IRAQ. He's a danger. He is a completely owned corporate stooge. Koch and other SuperPAC money will flood into Ohio to try to buy this senate seat for corporate America.

      Take the "Can't(or)" out of Congress. Support E. Wayne Powell in Va-07. http://www.ewaynepowell.com/

      by anastasia p on Tue Oct 25, 2011 at 01:40:12 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  In Allen West's defense, he is a pyromaniac. (13+ / 0-)

    By the way, one of these days I'm going to run for Congress in PA-5 and if David Nir calls me "some dude" I'll be pretty pissed off.  Oh, and if Markos could scrub all 30,000 of my Daily Kos comments that would help a lot.

    But nobody's buying flowers from the flower lady.

    by Rich in PA on Tue Oct 25, 2011 at 06:00:18 AM PDT

  •  Q poll on SB 5 (8+ / 0-)

    57-32 no.  Up from 51-38 last month.

    http://www.quinnipiac.edu/...

    “If you think I can be bought for five thousand dollars, I'm offended." Rick Perry.

    by Paleo on Tue Oct 25, 2011 at 06:49:13 AM PDT

    •  Nice results. (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      tle, LordMike, TofG, Odysseus

      This is also an underrated part of 2012. It's not clear how much, if at all, it might matter, but the anti-union crap is bought into by the Republicans, doesn't it have to help Obama and the Democrats? Just a small shift in the union vote in 2004 would have won Ohio for Kerry.

      Just to back this up with some numbers, take the 2008 exit poll information, which says that union households are 28 percent of the electorate. Obama won that group with 56 percent and the non-union households with 51 percent. He could drop all the way down to 45 percent with the non-union households and get only 60 percent of the union households, which would give him 49.2 percent. That's probably a loss, but then, it's quite close--and that's with a huge drop in non-union households. If he can get the split to 52-48 amongst non-union households and still win 60 percent of the union vote, he gets 51.36 percent.

      Others here can disagree, but I don't think getting 60 percent of the union vote is out of the question. In fact, it might be too low.

      •  No wonder (0+ / 0-)

        Romney is hedging his bets on this, saying he's not taking a position on the referendum but supports the state party.

        He's a weasel.

        •  Exactly. It's not clear what the specific cause (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          itskevin

          and effect relationship will be, but it doesn't tax the imagination to think this set of affairs has turned a small chunk of the state against Republicans for at least a few cycles. If that's the case, and if it carries over to the presidential election, it's hard for them to win.

    •  Looking good! (4+ / 0-)

      With 2 weeks left, I am cautiously optimistic. (The "cautiously" won't go away until returns start coming in on Election Night of course)

      21, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

      by sapelcovits on Tue Oct 25, 2011 at 07:01:17 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  If (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, TofG, itskevin

      only the public felt the same way about voter id laws.

      The ABC's of voting in Kentucky A- Abramson B- Beshear C- Conway D- Democrats E- Edelen F- Farmer G- Grimes H- Hollenbach

      by drhoosierdem on Tue Oct 25, 2011 at 07:04:31 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  So, it'll only lose by a few points. (0+ / 0-)

      I'm not even sure that's snark.  I do think that, if it officially loses, people will take to the streets in outrage.  Which will be a nice change, since a "defeat" would be a giant banner proclaiming that the election thieves have nothing but utter contempt for the people.

      I am become Man, the destroyer of worlds

      by tle on Tue Oct 25, 2011 at 08:06:09 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Well, that explains the lack of advertising.... (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, itskevin

      ...from the pro 2 folk.  Although, I've been told from other people that the ads are still up, but it's certainly less frequent.

      GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

      by LordMike on Tue Oct 25, 2011 at 09:04:01 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  WI Recalls - Dems to gather (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, TofG, happymisanthropy, itskevin

    Several of the leading candidates to stand against Gov. Walker in the recall are gathering for a publicity tour.  I found the story interesting anyway.

    link: http://www.journaltimes.com/...

    "My name's Dr. Multimillionaire and I kicked your ass." --Rep. Steve Kagen D-WI to Karl Rove

    by walja on Tue Oct 25, 2011 at 07:01:32 AM PDT

  •  You know (7+ / 0-)

    pretty soon Mandel's parents just might let him sit at the grown ups table during holidays if he keeps this up.

    The ABC's of voting in Kentucky A- Abramson B- Beshear C- Conway D- Democrats E- Edelen F- Farmer G- Grimes H- Hollenbach

    by drhoosierdem on Tue Oct 25, 2011 at 07:03:26 AM PDT

  •  Ben Nelson (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    tle, OldDragon

    If we don't draw a line at Ben Nelson -- with him on the other side of it -- where do we draw the line?  Politicians like him are one of the reasons people are so pissed off.  Is there an occupyLincoln encampment where a grassroots campaign could begin to find a real Democrat?  It's too late to be supporting tools like him.

    Single Payer Single Payer Single Payer Single Payer Single Payer Single Payer Single Payer

    by CalbraithRodgers on Tue Oct 25, 2011 at 07:04:12 AM PDT

  •  IN Dem Party Chair (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Odysseus

    So I did not want to cover this before as I had my doubts, but it is turning into a nice scandal and many people are now calling for Chairman Parker to resign because of it. It sucks because it gives Republicans more ammo for voter id laws, even though it is not related.

    http://blogs.indystar.com/...

    The ABC's of voting in Kentucky A- Abramson B- Beshear C- Conway D- Democrats E- Edelen F- Farmer G- Grimes H- Hollenbach

    by drhoosierdem on Tue Oct 25, 2011 at 07:16:27 AM PDT

  •  fwiw, Rasmussen now has Obama leading (5+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    tle, James Allen, LordMike, TofG, SaoMagnifico

    Cain by 6%, after having Cain lead by one last week. I dont think he has any new numbers for Perry or Romney, but last week, Obama led Perry by 8%, and Romney by 1%.

    •  IOW, (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike

      almost half the electorate is nuts.  Cain should just change his name, to Herman Koch.  Or maybe he could dress up in a clown suit and be their mascot, Joke Koch.

      I think it's very informative that the absolute worst corporatist whore in the whole Republican gang is now leading, and holding that lead.

      I am become Man, the destroyer of worlds

      by tle on Tue Oct 25, 2011 at 08:14:33 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  He really shouldn't (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        tle

        then what would happen to all the Cain is able/people are confusing him with McCain jokes?

        21, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

        by sapelcovits on Tue Oct 25, 2011 at 09:36:57 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Joke Koch is more relevant. (0+ / 0-)

          But yeah, we definitely need to retain a sense of humor about this.  

          How about "Cain is Abel"?  That would be more in keeping with the spelling skills of teabaggers.  Alas, it would also constitute an implied deadly threat.  Never mind.

          "This is good news for Cain!".  Have we started hearing that repeated ad infinitum yet?

          ;^)

          I am become Man, the destroyer of worlds

          by tle on Tue Oct 25, 2011 at 10:24:19 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  MA-Sen: The League of Conservation Voters (6+ / 0-)

    has a new ad out attacking Scott Brown on his votes for "big oil".

    20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

    by ndrwmls10 on Tue Oct 25, 2011 at 07:53:48 AM PDT

  •  Emily's List has endorsed Lois Capps. She is (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Odysseus, KingofSpades

    the first incumbent to be endorsed this cycle.

    http://www.rollcall.com/...

    20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

    by ndrwmls10 on Tue Oct 25, 2011 at 07:57:48 AM PDT

  •  NE-Sen, Ben Nelson (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    CalbraithRodgers, OldDragon

    Oh yeah, a war Democrat who voted for Cheney's Energy Act and CAFTA.  I'm really thrilled at the idea of money going to support his re-election.  Not.

    It would be nice to see the national Democratic Party support a better Democrat in Nebraska.

    I am become Man, the destroyer of worlds

    by tle on Tue Oct 25, 2011 at 07:59:34 AM PDT

    •  I'd soon enough just abandon Nebraska. (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      CalbraithRodgers, xcave

      I have little hope for Nelson anyways. We have better opportunities and places to invest. What if the money we invested in Nebraska could have gone to a state like Missouri and McCaskill lost. She's not the greatest Democrat in the world, but she's a hell of a lot better then Nelson. She also has a much better opportunity of being reelected. I also think we might have a better shot in North Dakota depending on the candidate.

      20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

      by ndrwmls10 on Tue Oct 25, 2011 at 08:13:50 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I'm not a fan of Nelson either but... (5+ / 0-)

      If he doesn't run or the party, for whatever reason, decided not support him they probably shouldn't bother directing any resources at all to the state as there's no other candidate (other than Bob Kerrey) who would have any chance at all or holding the seat.

      25, originally OK-1, currently NY-8. Former swingnut.

      by okiedem on Tue Oct 25, 2011 at 08:15:51 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Unless you subscribe (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        fumie, Odysseus, GayHillbilly

        to the 50 state strategy.  

        Single Payer Single Payer Single Payer Single Payer Single Payer Single Payer Single Payer

        by CalbraithRodgers on Tue Oct 25, 2011 at 08:29:59 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  So you're saying (4+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          jj32, sacman701, SaoMagnifico, itskevin

          Nelson is too conservative and we shouldn't support him but we should direct resources to a sacrificial lamb who'll lose by 30 points?

          Pro Israel, Pro Peace, and a Proud Mass-hole

          by progressive from Mass on Tue Oct 25, 2011 at 08:58:14 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Actually, yes. (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Odysseus, GayHillbilly

            Why?  To move the conversation back from the far right, to sow seeds that help improve the environment.  As long as the choice is between, for example, a conservative warmonger and fascist nutjob, progressives will continue to lose.

            I wonder whether Nebraska is as bad as these comments suggest.  Does everyone there support a giant war machine, Wall Street, a police state, etc.?   Maybe there's an opportunity for someone who supports people over corporations, peace over war.

            I am become Man, the destroyer of worlds

            by tle on Tue Oct 25, 2011 at 10:34:25 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Not everyone but a strong majority :) (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              James Allen

              The basic problem with Nebraska is that the Eastern third of the state (which includes about 2/3 of the state's population) is a lean Republican area but the Western two-thirds of the state over very very conservative and unfriendly to Democrats. I believe the last Democratic nominee to  Although the occasional conservative populist Democrat can win the state no Democrat that would be acceptable to the nationwide Democratic primary electorate could ever carry the state. On a statewide level Obama was beat very badly there in 2008 but his 41% of the vote was significantly higher than any other Democrat had received since Johnson in 1964).

              There's no way any Democrat can win a state like Nebraska by running a traditional liberal campaign against, "giant war machine, Wall Street, a police state, etc." No amount of politicking and outreach can cause voters with deeply conservative beliefs to vote in large numbers for a liberal Democrat.

              25, originally OK-1, currently NY-8. Former swingnut.

              by okiedem on Tue Oct 25, 2011 at 10:49:28 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  Should have said "Democratic _presidential_ (0+ / 0-)

                candidate".

                On a statewide level Obama was beat very badly there in 2008 but his 41% of the vote was significantly higher than any other Democrat had received since Johnson in 1964).

                On a statewide level, Kleeb lost to Johanns for U.S. Senate in that same year by 57-40.  Very similar to Obama.  Not a good indicator, but not in lose-by-30 territory, either.

                I am become Man, the destroyer of worlds

                by tle on Tue Oct 25, 2011 at 11:24:00 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

            •  If a Republican defeats Nelson or any other (0+ / 0-)

              Democrat (and the latter is much more likely), the conversation will be moved so far to the right so quickly we won't know what hit us.

        •  I don't (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          SaoMagnifico, GayHillbilly

          I'm all for state parties organizing to the greatest extent possible but I'll never understand the impulse to through good money after hopeless races. Although I'm all for taking chances when they appear (like Matheson in Utah for instance) we will never be consistently competitive in places like Utah, Oklahoma, Wyoming, or Idaho and to the extent that we do succeed in electing Democrats from these states they will be very very conservative sometimes even to the point of being totally useless (see Dan Boren, Gene Taylor).

          That being said, I think it would be worthwhile for the party to put some money into organizing states which are not currently competitive but which are, or will be, trending Democratic due to demographic trends (such as Texas or Mississippi). While such expenditures won't do anything to help us win now they might speed up these states transition to team blue by registering new and young voters that will be much more friendly to us than the older generations in these states.

          25, originally OK-1, currently NY-8. Former swingnut.

          by okiedem on Tue Oct 25, 2011 at 09:16:33 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  You and I would probably agree on a lot. (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            HoosierD42, Tiger in BlueDenver

            The problem is, building up a party takes time, and it's only going to be harder if an incumbent builds up seniority, particularly in a state as lopsided as Nebraska. Thus, if we work to reelect Nelson and prevent a Republican from getting the seat, we are making things easier for ourselves over the long term.

        •  The whole point of the 50 state (4+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          SaoMagnifico, xcave, jncca, itskevin

          strategy is to run candidates who aren't too ideologically out of sync with their constituencies. If you want to donate to a progressive, fine, then give money to Elizabeth Warren or Tammy Baldwin. But don't expect Nebraska to elect a Warren or Baldwin clone.

          21, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

          by sapelcovits on Tue Oct 25, 2011 at 09:38:24 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  The 50 state strategy calls for running (4+ / 0-)

          Democrats, not liberals, in all 50 states. People here frequently misunderstand it. Many of the Democrats elected through it have been relatively conservative.

          •  Relatively is the key word... (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            GayHillbilly

            Dean's guys were not the kind of troublemakers that Rahm managed to recruit.  "50 state" candidates tend to be more progressive than the average blue dog.

            GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

            by LordMike on Tue Oct 25, 2011 at 10:56:46 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Yes, they were also winning in just (2+ / 0-)

              'relatively conservative' districts-- like OH-1 or OH-15, which are really marginal districts. Not in Nebraska. How'd Scott Kleeb do again in 2008? He was a netroots candidate if I recall correctly, and running during a Dem wave.

              •  Although to be fair (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                LordMike

                he did better than any Democrat should in 2006.

                21, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

                by sapelcovits on Tue Oct 25, 2011 at 02:24:43 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

              •  Kleeb didn't do all that badly. (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                LordMike

                He was up against a guy who was governor for six years, before heading the Agriculture Department, and being out raised and outspent by $1 million. It also wasn't a top tier race, if I recall correctly, and while that's understandable, it had to make a difference.

                •  Of course he didn't do all that badly-- (2+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  HoosierD42, Tiger in BlueDenver

                  he got national donations, and was running in the biggest D wave since decades. But he didn't come within even 15 points. That's kind of the point of the argument-- as soon as you replace Nelson with even a very attractive liberal candidate, you're DOA.

                  Kleeb also lost the NE-3 race in 2006 under another best-case scenario against a bland Republican who had won with under 40% in a split field in the primary, by 10 points-- another respectable showing where he didn't even come close to winning. Nelson probably carried NE-3 pretty solidly in 2006.

    •  And this better Democrat is who, exactly? (0+ / 0-)

      Take a look at what I said above. Nelson's reelection is not so much about him but rather about preventing Republican control of the Senate and hopefully rebuilding the bench in the state for when he retires. That's not exactly the stuff dreams are made of, but it's not a bad way to look at the world, at least in this case.

  •  On MD-04, an update: (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    sapelcovits, SaoMagnifico

    What matters is...how well we have loved, and what small part we have played in making the lives of other people better.

    by wmtriallawyer on Tue Oct 25, 2011 at 08:21:38 AM PDT

  •  The most important race of 2011 (7+ / 0-)

    From First Read:

    First Read: "The best -- and most meaningful -- statewide race of 2011 wasn't in West Virginia (where Democrats narrowly won the gubernatorial contest). Or in Louisiana (where Gov. Bobby Jindal cruised to re-election). And it won't be in Kentucky (where Democrats are poised for a blowout gubernatorial win). Or in Mississippi (where Republicans are expected to hold the governor's mansion). Rather, the 2011 race with the biggest political implications is taking place here in the Buckeye State, where voters two weeks from today will decide the fate of Gov. John Kasich's (R) law curbing collective-bargaining rights for public-sector workers."

    "It will test, once again, organized labor's strength in the Midwest (after its mixed results in Wisconsin). It will gauge Kasich's popularity (or unpopularity). It will serve as a trial run of sorts for next year's presidential contest in this traditional battleground state. And it's the same fight we've seen across the country -- about how governments balance their budgets and about the role of the government worker."

    I, for one, am absolutely thrilled this seems to be going down in flames.

    •  though gubernatorial elections in (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades

      WV and KY are definitely important.

      I changed by not changing at all, small town predicts my fate, perhaps that's what no one wants to see. -6.38, -4.15

      by James Allen on Tue Oct 25, 2011 at 08:56:01 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  They were (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KingofSpades

        But we won WV and are killing it in KY.  

        The KY Dem bench for McConnell and Paul's Senate seats is stocked.  We just need to make sure none of them has a "Patton scandal" and unifies around a candidate (yes, even if it's Mongiardo) and takes both of them down for their next respective elections.

        The OH vote lays out a dialogue for OH for all races in 2012.  I actually don't see a huge lose-lose proposition.  If we win and over-turn, doesn't that fuel Brown and Obama in Ohio with their focus on turning back this issue and the people who supported it.  And if it somehow loses, doesn't that give ammo to Brown and Obama to hammer Mandel and RomPerryCain over this issue?

        •  I think and hope Mongiardo is done (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          KingofSpades

          as we know Steve Beshear got a new lt gov starting in 2011. Grimes, Edelen, Conway, Chandler or even possibly Beshear himself if he will run would be fine for the senate seats.

        •  SouthernINDem said that (0+ / 0-)

          from 1992 to the mid 2000's, the KY Dem Party was in slow decline and McConnell led the KY GOP to prominence.  The consequences of this was Paul Patton only barely being elected in 1995, the Democrats losing the State Senate in 1998, and finally with Republicans winning three statewide offices in 2003.  This was reversed halfway through Fletcher's term as Lexington and the Bluegrass regions turned left (they were traditionally moderate Republicans) and Dem.  Aided by a scandal plaguing the Republicans, Democrats pushed back and won the Governor's office back in 2007 and are now poised to win back even more.

          'An eye for an eye makes the whole world blind.' -Mahatma Gandhi

          by KingofSpades on Tue Oct 25, 2011 at 11:41:17 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  Well, okay, then so are Loiusiana and Mississippi (0+ / 0-)

        Louisiana is important because it's going to set up Bobby Jindal nicely to get past his horrible speech of 2009 and become a national candidate for the Republicans in either 2016 or 2020.

        Mississippi, becuase it will show if the increase in AA population might give Dems more of a chance in the future.

        But this is also my way of saying that I don't think any of these races (WV, KY, LA or MS) are all that important, at least for 2012 purposes (we're not going to win any of these states in the general). Ohio is important, because it's going to show the power of labor, what happens when you have an unpopular governor, and it's a swing state for 2012.

        •  Jindal is DOA (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          TofG

          Maybe he gets named to some 2nd tier cabinet post should a Repub win in 2016, but he seriously has nowhere to go from here in the GOP on a national level.

          •  ???? (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            SaoMagnifico, Inoljt, jncca

            Why do you say that. He's considered by Republicans to be a successful governor, he's a former Rhodes scholar and he's non-white. In fact, I think Romney will seriously consider him for VP if he wins the nomination.

            Are you just talking about his disasterous answer to Obama in 2009? Because keep in mind that there was a guy who made a horrible nominating speech in 1988 for Michael Duakakis, was written off by everyone, and went on to become Bill Clinton. Those kind of things can be overcome with time.

            I don't have any fondness for Jindal - I think a lot of his policies are tragic for Louisiana -  but I don't know why you're so quick to write him off.

            •  He's done nothing (0+ / 0-)

              And he's widely regarded mainly for being a smart non-white in the GOP.  This is pretty much exactly what the GOP doesn't seem to want.

              I have no diea how him being non-white helps the GOP.  Will it translate single vote, of course not.  He doesn't balance the ticket, as he's not really seen as a Southerner in any way.  He is not charasmatic at all and has never really been challenged by anything in his political races.

              If anyone picks Jindal as running mate I'd simply laugh out loud.  Especially Romney; a Mormon and an Indian will not do well to drive GOP turnout in the south where they are still clamoring for Rick perry and Michelle Bachmann to have a baby and name it Jesus.

    •  oh its in two weeks? (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jj32

      I thought it wasnt up until 2012...

    •  Funny. I remember WV being very meaningful (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      askew, KingofSpades, itskevin

      when there was a chance the Republican could win there.

      I dont know how much you can read about 2012 from the 2011 election. What is encouraging to me is that OFA is GOTV against Issue 2 and helped get the signatures needed to block that election law. Hopefully, that is some good practice for the 2012 election.

    •  The only thing to be upset about (0+ / 0-)

      Is that they couldn't bring this up in an election year where where it could provide major coattails.

      23, Solid Liberal Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut

      by HoosierD42 on Wed Oct 26, 2011 at 01:33:42 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Hermain Cain leads by 12% in Wisconsin (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    James Allen, askew

    and trails Romney by 1% in Nevada.

    http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/...

    20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

    by ndrwmls10 on Tue Oct 25, 2011 at 09:02:09 AM PDT

  •  WIsen primary Thompson leading 4-way by 6 (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    James Allen, redrelic17, supercereal
  •  MA-Sen (10+ / 0-)

    Setti Warren backs Elizabeth Warren.

    http://www.wickedlocal.com/...

    The ABC's of voting in Kentucky A- Abramson B- Beshear C- Conway D- Democrats E- Edelen F- Farmer G- Grimes H- Hollenbach

    by drhoosierdem on Tue Oct 25, 2011 at 09:26:16 AM PDT

  •  Rick Perry - a post which I challenge DCCyclone (0+ / 0-)

    Okay, first at the outset - I think DCCyclone is the best commentator on this site, and he is right far more often than I am.

    That said, I take issue with his idea that Rick Perry is still the most likely Republican candidate. DC says he has both the money and the time to regain his status as leader. Both true. But what I think gets ignored about Perry is he is a UNIQUELY bad candidate.

    Take what's happened the past couple of days. Perry's rolling out his economic plan, and it's been getting pretty good reviews from Club for Growth types. So what does he do? He steps all over his rollout by indulging in some pointless birtherism.

    I know there's an arguement that might not be a complete turnoff to the Republican base, but the fact is its a completely stupid and useless distraction. As DC himself conceded his last post, major political parties don't generally cut their throats, at least willingly (the last one was probably Dems in 1972 when the nominated McGovern). Republican primary voters aren't going to vote on the birth certificate issue. They are going to look at electability. and competence, to some extent. (I know, I know. O'Donnell, Angle, Buck and Miller. But the first one is the only one where the Republicans were clearly nominating an unlectable candidate. The others, it was hard to say, although in hindsight, sure. Right now, Perry is clearly not electable).

    Another way to look at this - DC argues that Cain will never win Iowa because the Republicans would be too embarassed to have Cain come out the winner. But why in the world would you think Perry is any better, at this point?

    I still think Romney is the most likely nominee, but I'll save that argument for later.

    •  I wont believe Romney is the most likely candidate (0+ / 0-)

      until he starts to move his numbers.

    •  Just take a look at Newt's recovery (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      itskevin

      Perry has the cash to help him try to do the same. Now, if his ads don't move his numbers then you might be right but until then this is all still premature.

      “I am a man of fixed and unbending principles, the first of which is to be flexible at all times.” Everett Dirksen (R-IL)

      by conspiracy on Tue Oct 25, 2011 at 12:50:13 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  From what I've read of DC's comments, (0+ / 0-)

      I've never heard him say that Republicans in Iowa would be embarrassed by a Cain win - just that Cain is not positioned to win. He has no infrastructure in the state, nor does he have the money to run the type of retail/marketing campaign you'd need to be competitive in the state's caucus. Perry does. In fact, I've read that his Iowa television campaign will be starting imminently (and he's got a strong marketing team).

      From what I can tell (and this is my opinion here), Perry's had a good couple days - from the perspective of the primary. As you note, his flat tax proposal is getting some good reviews (and helped him win the endorsement of Steve Forbes). And I disagree with you on the birther stuff. Sure, it may have stepped on his economic message a bit, but it's earning him a lot of free media - and should net him support among primary voters, especially in a state like Iowa (where the caucus tips very partisan). Also, we've seen poll after poll showing that something like 50% of the Republican electorate, if not more, believes there's merit to the birther claims. Others may not believe it, but they probably don't mind the question being raised, as it supports the notion that Obama is an "other" who's unfit to hold the office of president. That's fertile ground for someone in the field, especially since Romney isn't speaking directly to these folks.

      All of this isn't to say that Romney won't be the nominee. I think there's a greater than even chance he will be. But if another candidate is to emerge to give Romney a run for his money, I think Perry's best positioned to do that.

  •  on Scott White and WA's LD46 (0+ / 0-)

    Scott's death is truly a tragedy.  There wasn't another star rising as rapidly in WA state government as his had been.

    As David notes, a replacement will be appointed until a special election in 2012 to fill out the rest of his term (State Senators serve 4-year terms, and Scott had been elected in 2010).  By law, the appointed replacement must be from the same party as the departed legislator.  He/she will be appointed by the Governor from a list (of three?) proposed by the LD's Democratic organization.  The list will be compiled by a vote of the PCOs (Precinct Committee officers) of the 46th LD Dems.

    I haven't heard anything about who might be appointed to the position, though there was some scuttlebutt that one of the two current House members in the 46th was already angling for it (too soon?).  If she ends up as the appointed Senator, then the 46th Dems will have to go through the process again to appoint a replacement House member.

    grok the "edku" -- edscan's "revelation", 21 January 2009

    by N in Seattle on Tue Oct 25, 2011 at 10:40:38 AM PDT

  •  Hawaii governor - sell out to good ol' boys? (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    itskevin, drachaCRO

    during my so far brief stay in Hawaii I have attended various Democratic party events. What I hear is that Abercrombie started out well with his aides and assistants, but recently dumped them in favor of members of the good ol' boy insiders network.

    Hawaii is isolated and incestuous politically. It is strangled by unions (the negative aspects of unionization, and yes, unions can be very negative), corporations, ONE newspaper that bullies, and the political class is resistant to any kind of progressive changes.

    all those plans and dreams of Abercrombie being other than a tool crash hard to the marginalized elements of the citizenry and party members.

    That's what I hear being said.

    Msongs www.hawaiilovesart.com batik, digital design, photography, songwriting

    by Msongs on Tue Oct 25, 2011 at 10:59:52 AM PDT

  •  Why is most of the WI Redistricting note (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    TofG

    Why is most of the WI Redistricting note crossed out in the article?

    Did the court decision not happen?

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