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John Kasich's signature union-busting bill in Ohio is in trouble, according to the latest Q-poll:
Ohio voters support 57 - 32 percent the repeal of SB 5, the centerpiece of Gov. John Kasich's legislative program, as the margin against the governor's measure has almost doubled in the last month, from 51 - 38 percent for repeal September 27, a 13-point margin, to a 25-point margin in today's Quinnipiac University poll.
The Q-poll out today suggests the spirit of WI and Occupy Wall Street continues to find fertile soil.  For some details on what is now called "Issue 2" on the ballot:
While Republicans oppose repeal 59 - 32 percent, their votes are buried under by Democrats who support repeal 77 - 13 percent and independent voters who agree 56 - 32 percent. Support for repeal is strong across gender, racial, income and education groups:

    • Men, 54 - 38 percent, and women, 58 - 27 percent;
    • Those without college degrees, 56 - 30 percent, and those with degrees, 57 - 37 percent;
    • Whites, 54 - 35 percent, and blacks, 76 - 15 percent;
    • Voters making over $100,000, 52 - 42 percent, those who earn less, 59 - 30 percent;
    • Voters in union households, 70 - 24 percent, non-union households, 52 - 35 percent.

Anything is possible in politics, but with such across-the-board support for repealing SB
5, the governor and his team can't be optimistic about the fate of their law," said Brown.

And along with SB 5, Kasich himself is not wearing well with independents:
Voter opinion about the governor tracks the feelings about SB 5. Republicans give Kasich a thumbs up 71 - 23 percent, not hugely different than the 75 - 14 percent margin by which Democrats disapprove of his job performance. The difference is independent voters, who Kasich carried in his election victory in 2010, but who now give him a negative job approval rating 54 - 30 percent. Men disapprove 50 - 41 percent, while women give him a 54 - 31 percent thumbs down, compared to 51 - 35 percent last month.
Compare this with polling earlier this month from PPP:
The preferences of Republicans and independents on Senate Bill 5 are mostly unchanged from two months ago.  Independents are evenly divided on the issue, 46/46. And Republicans want to uphold it 61/30. But Democrats have unified in their support for repealing SB 5.  In August they were only planning to overturn it by a 69/21 margin. Now that figure is 80/13. That increase in Democratic support for repeal may be indicative of voters becoming increasingly aware what the implications of a 'yes' and 'no' vote are on this somewhat complicated referendum.

Republicans can win by lying about their intentions, but once in office they have trouble holding their gains. The unpopularity of Republican Governors doesn't directly translate to presidential politics—Rick Scott's unpopularity in FL and Kasich's in OH doesn't automatically mean D wins in 2012—but it's part of the background that flavors the political stew. That's especially true for issues like SB 5/Issue 2 that attract headlines, yet are still complex enough to have a learning curve.

But once non-Republicans realize what these guys are about, opposition grows.

Originally posted to Daily Kos Labor on Tue Oct 25, 2011 at 07:21 AM PDT.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Tip Jar (19+ / 0-)

    "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

    by Greg Dworkin on Tue Oct 25, 2011 at 07:21:51 AM PDT

  •  Mitt Romney going to OH to support (6+ / 0-)

    Issue 2. That should turn things around for the GOP. :)

    •  Oh, never mind. It's classic Mitt (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      OhioNatureMom, LordMike, TofG

      Campaigning at an Issue 2 phone bank, without taking a stance on the issue.

      •  Mitt refused to endorse Issue 2 or Issue 3 (0+ / 0-)

        He just said that, although he wouldn't take an explicit position at a rally to support these two measures, he "support Republican efforts in Ohio."

        Could this guy be any emptier?

        P.S. Issue 3 is repealing "Obamacare," aka Romneycare. It will win in a landslide bit don't believe the p.r. about how it proves everyone hates "Obamacare." The summary language does not say what it's really about, and the summary sentence — the only thing many will read — is a flat-out Tea party talking point and a flat-out lie. It's so deceptive I almost would have voted yes if I didn't know what it was.

        Take the "Can't(or)" out of Congress. Support E. Wayne Powell in Va-07.

        by anastasia p on Tue Oct 25, 2011 at 01:25:37 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Will Koch money buy elections? (9+ / 0-)

    Tests like this will tell us a lot about next November.  We're so petrified of Citizens United, but I wonder if even more endlessly-repeated attack ads and obvious lies will really convince an electorate, even one as stupid as ours.

    I'm of the mind that if Democrats attack the corporate spending directly, naming names and  linking Republican politicians to oligarchs' agendas, that no amount of Koch or Chamber of Commerce money will be able to buy a lot of voters.  Democratic candidates had better learn quick to attack big money in politics for what it is -- an attempt to buy elections -- and put Republicans on the defensive.  Maybe the fight over SB5 will show some of them the way.

    Don't tell me what you believe. Tell me what you do and I'll tell you what you believe. --Meteor Blades

    by Dallasdoc on Tue Oct 25, 2011 at 07:29:44 AM PDT

  •  Right the f_ _ _ on!! Crush Kasich!n/t (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
  •  I think that OWS has a HUGE (7+ / 0-)

    part to play in this.

    The occupation has been successful in uniting almost all Americans.  The republicans are, once again, totally out of the mainstream.

    "Mediocrity cannot know excellence." -- Sherlock Holmes

    by La Gitane on Tue Oct 25, 2011 at 08:06:20 AM PDT

  •  Voting NO is the correct vote on SB2. (13+ / 0-)

    My son and I are voting absentee. The rules for absentee were changed here in OH recently.

    Previous elections, I automatically received my absentee ballot through the mail about 4-6 weeks before the election.

    No more. Ya see, that made voting too easy. Gotta stop that.

    Now, to receive an absentee ballot, the voter must contact the Board of Elections. The BoE sends out an APPLICATION for absentee voting. Return the application and your absentee ballot comes in the mail.

    Many OH citizens wont bother.

    •  Yup, this is what we had to do this year. It was (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      OhioNatureMom, A Runner, TofG


      That's one more thing to add to my long list of small problems. --my son, age 10

      by concernedamerican on Tue Oct 25, 2011 at 08:36:11 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  organize A Runner... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Many OH citizens wont bother.
      never give up... throw them out who passed these laws.  organize others to vote!!!

      It will mean that Republicans will have to organize and they, I am sure, will be doing so.  Voter suppression won't go away because you don't like it.  

      Blacks couldn't vote at one time... neither could women.  Did that mean everyone just sat down and accepted that?

      Sometimes we need to take a breath and go right back in there!  There is a fight on and you need to fight these new rules of voter suppression.

      Pass new laws to end media monopolization now.

      by john from vermont on Tue Oct 25, 2011 at 09:18:45 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  The unions are doing mailings (0+ / 0-)

      This may have backfired on the Ohio GOP. THEIR supporters won't get them in the mail, but the guaranteed "no" voters will.

      Take the "Can't(or)" out of Congress. Support E. Wayne Powell in Va-07.

      by anastasia p on Tue Oct 25, 2011 at 01:29:14 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  I am absolutely convinced (7+ / 0-)

    that the direct, democratic action as displayed in Wisconsin and the leaderless movement of OWS, with no agenda except the direct expression of discontent with the lopsided status quo, is the most powerful force we have seen in American politics in years. These movements are not in vain, they are more powerful than the propaganda machine. If you think that the tea party got so much credibility with the media pumping their 40 person demonstrations, imagine the real power of these movements. They cannot be refuted. I regret that we will see state-sponsored violence to attempt to suppress them. It will fail miserably.

    "You can die for Freedom, you just can't exercise it"

    by shmuelman on Tue Oct 25, 2011 at 08:10:38 AM PDT

  •  Growing?! (6+ / 0-)

    I was driving through Willoughby yesterday (small town outside of Cleveland--typical Americana layout with Main Street, First Street, etc.) and I saw nothing but "no on Issue 2" signs in yards. And this town has a very conspicuous anti-abortion billboard on one of it's main roads.

    Around my neighborhood just a few miles away are nothing but "no on Issue 2 signs". That bill shall not pass. Not here. Nobody likes it, even the wingnuts.

    "It's not enough to acknowledge privilege. You have to resist." -soothsayer

    by GenXangster on Tue Oct 25, 2011 at 08:32:40 AM PDT

  •  ALEC and the Koch brothers and their coordinating (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    strategies with Republican and right wing interests across the country meddle so perniciously with our electoral process.  The lies they help fund and the falsehoods they promote through candidates who say one thing during campaigns then do another-- Koch brother and billionaire and corporate bidding-- after being elected, have drastic real-world consequences for the people living in the states where such meddling and strategies have been deployed.

    I really, really hate what they did during the 2010 election cycle, with such a coordinated series of false campaigns on the republican ticket around the country.  

    Is there no crack seal team 6-type squad that can take them out before they screw our country--- this great country-- over even more?

    That's one more thing to add to my long list of small problems. --my son, age 10

    by concernedamerican on Tue Oct 25, 2011 at 08:34:48 AM PDT

  •  Backfiring ads (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    TofG, eglantine, Linda in Ohio, cybersaur

    A large part of the surge in opposition has been the sleazy TV ads by the SB5/Issue 2 supporters.  It's blown up in their faces.  From twisting the words of a great grandmother into a baldfaced lie, to essentially calling teachers, firefighters, police and nurses "over paid union thugs", they've managed to alienate anyone with a pulse.

    I only hope this encourages Ohioans to demand an election recall law and process to hold idiots like Kasich fully accountable.  As it stands, we have to live with this cretin for another 3+ years.  Think of the damage he can still do!

    In 2010, I paid more taxes than General Electric.

    by GrogInOhio on Tue Oct 25, 2011 at 08:45:55 AM PDT

  •  No On 2 signs are ubiquitous (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, TofG, stewarjt, buckybadger1988

    in Ohio, from Seneca to Cuyahoga Falls, as the song goes.

    I took a trip up to see some relatives this weekend, and was astounded by the show of force that the sign coverage has gotten, especially in right wing rural backwaters. I drove down to see some wildlife areas in SE Ohio on the way home, and saw proud union household signs in areas where people might not have admitted to union membership a year ago.

    The Kasich plan has backfired by all appearances - let's go turn out that vote!

    "Plan for the normal, live with the abnormal." Great gardening advice from Frankenoid (equally applicable to relationships).

    by surfbird007 on Tue Oct 25, 2011 at 09:11:14 AM PDT

  •  Even Evangelicals don't like Kasich (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    TofG, midnight lurker

    It's just a two point spread, but you gotta love it when the wingnuts can't even get their approval!

  •  Even Mr. Burns and Smithers approve of trend of no (0+ / 0-)
  •  Issue 2/SB 5 Is an Abomination in So Many Ways (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    Do you want to know what's in it?  Well, get a beer, pull up a chair, and start reading.  (I'm sure not going to go through the whole thing here.)

    SB 5 affects 166 separate Sections of the Ohio Revised Code.  The PDF version on the Secretary of State website is 304 pages.  The version printed in the newspapers is 58 full pages.  It is not annotated or indexed in any way, and it is filled with incredible minutiae.  I would be surprised if any of the legislators actually read the whole thing.

    It does have some good things in it, I guess --

    When determining the performance of an employee who is a member of a police department, the director shall not consider the number or type of citations that the employee issues.

    On the other hand, there are real stinkers --

    (B) No public employer to which this section applies shall enter into a collective bargaining agreement on or after the effective date of this section that does any of the following:
    (1) Requires the public employer to employ a minimum number of total personnel or any category of personnel;
    (2) Restricts the authority of the public employer or a district or service center superintendent to assign personnel to school buildings or restricts the authority of a building principal to designate the responsibilities and workloads of personnel assigned to the building;
    (3) Establishes a maximum number of students who may be assigned to a classroom or teacher;

    The focus of many of the TV ads in favor of Issue 2 is "Look at the benefits those lazy teachers get, and we have pay for them.  I don't have those kinds of benefits" - making it us vs. them - hate your neighbor for what he has, don't think about how he got it or how you could get it as well.

    "Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything even remotely true." -- H. Simpson

    by midnight lurker on Tue Oct 25, 2011 at 10:22:18 AM PDT

  •  Can this hopefully mean Issue 3 will go down? (0+ / 0-)

    I am hopefull that the unpopularity of Issue 2 will carry over to Issue 3, which I haven't seen polled anywhere.


    •  Alas, no. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      The dishonest, deceptive language they managed to shove on the ballot to summarize Issue 3 is going to sound great to everyone. Heck. it sounded great to me! Unlike most voters, I knew what the issue is really about even though it doesn't say so.

      Please keep this in mind when it passes in a landslide and you hear all about how it shows that everybody hates "Obamacare." Most voters will have no clue  that's what they were voting on.

      The summary language merely saying that it "preserves the freedom of Ohioans to choose their own health care."

      This insulting language would have been rejected by any decent, ethical attorney general and secretary of state. Unfortunately, we have corrupt partisan stooges in those offices.

      Take the "Can't(or)" out of Congress. Support E. Wayne Powell in Va-07.

      by anastasia p on Tue Oct 25, 2011 at 01:36:09 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

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