Skip to main content

Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest banner
Want the scoop on hot races around the country? Get the digest emailed to you each weekday morning. Sign up here.
Leading Off:

OR-01/OR-03: Hah, man, this is some gonzo campaigning at its finest—I love it! Dem Rep. Earl Blumenauer is re-airing a campaign advertisement from his first run for congress in 1996… a spot to which Republican Rob Cornilles' much-derided new ad bears a striking resemblance. Blumenauer's campaign explains what they're up to:

“It’s clear that Rob Cornilles is trying to be Earl Blumenauer for Halloween and we’re going to take off the mask and remind people of his positions on the issues,” said Willie Smith, Blumenauer campaign manager. […]

Fifteen years later, Republican Rob Cornilles is running a remarkably similar ad that has already caused controversy, in part because it shows him running in the 3rd Congressional district (held by Blumenauer) and tries to mislead first district voters about his well-documented, strictly conservative agenda– privatizing Social Security and Medicare, denying climate change, opposing women’s reproductive choice, and embracing the Tea Party.

Watch the ad below (The Hotline says it's a "small five-figure buy"), and make sure you stick around for the updated disclaimer at the end (something which wasn't required by law when the spot first ran):

Meanwhile, a second poll (this one from Elway Research, for The Oregonian & KGW-TV) shows Suzanne Bonamici with a massive lead in the Democratic primary for the 1st CD special election. Click the link for our full post at Daily Kos Elections. P.S. The all-mail primary is coming up on Nov. 8.

Senate:

FL-Sen: Even though Rep. Connie Mack just made a preposterous about-face and announced on Thursday that he would in fact enter the Senate race, I guess he's not the savior some Florida Republicans were hoping for. Supposedly, some of them are still courting state CFO Jeff Atwater as well. No quotes from anyone in Atwater's camp about this, though—sounds like it's barely even at rumor level.

RI-Sen, RI-01: Ted Nesi says that Warwick Mayor Scott Avedisian will endorse fellow Republicans Brendan Doherty in RI-01 and Barry Hinckley for the Senate race—which presumably means Avedisian has ruled out runs for either of those seats himself.

UT-Sen: "Later this fall" has turned into "later this year" for a decision from state Sen. Dan Liljenquist, probably the most prominent possible challenger still remaining for Sen. Orrin Hatch in the GOP primary. (I guess technically speaking, autumn runs until Dec. 21st, so maybe this change of language doesn't amount to much. But does anyone say "this fall" when they mean, say, mid-December?)

Gubernatorial:

KY-Gov: It's really just gravy at this point, but the Kentucky Democratic Party went ahead and filed a formal complaint with the state's Registry of Election Finance, accusing the David Williams campaign of illegally coordinating with Restoring America, a front group that ran advertising in support of Williams and which was funded solely by Williams' father-in-law, Terry Stephens.

Meanwhile, Dem Gov. Steve Beshear says that if he's re-elected next month, he won't seek a third term. This isn't a huge shock, since Kentucky's term limits law would prevent him from running again until 2019. UPDATE: I sort of missed the more important point here, which is that Beshear said he wouldn't run for any office ever again, which would include a rematch against GOP Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, who defeated Beshear in 1996 by a 55-43 margin.

House:

GA-12: Attorney Wright McLeod is the latest Republican to join the race against Dem Rep. John Barrow in the redrawn (and redder) 12th CD. It's not clear whether he's got a lot of juice, but he does have the backing of Gloria Norwood, the widow of ex-Rep. Charlie Norwood, who used to represent the 10th District.

IL-13, IL-12: Uh, seriously, WTF? Ex-state Rep. Jay Hoffman had looked like a strong recruit for Democrats in the new 13th CD, where he'd face off against GOP Rep. Tim Johnson. Then, after Jerry Costello announced his retirement in the neighboring 12th, Hoffman suggested he might switch over there, a move which would have left Dems with a serious hole in the Johnson race but at least would have given us a credible candidate to hold the open Costello district. Now he's bailing on Congress altogether, to instead make a comeback bid for the state House! (Albeit in a different district than he used to represent.) Ugh. This really screws us.

Fortunately, Dem recruitment has picked up in the 12th in recent days, with former county Regional Superintendent of Schools Brad Harriman announcing a run. Madison County Chief Circuit Judge Ann Callis is also expected to join the race this week. (Apparently, local Democratic organizations have split between these two, with St. Clair County supporting Harriman and Madison County likely to back Callis.) But that still leaves us pretty hosed in the 13th. (Incidentally, though we missed it a month ago, Hoffman touted a poll, from an unnamed pollster, that showed the better-known Johnson up 44-33.)

MI-13: State Sen. Glenn Anderson says he will challenge Rep. John Conyers in the Democratic primary in the redrawn 13th District. Conyers still hasn't formally announced he's switching to the 13th himself, but since fellow Dem. Rep. Hansen Clarke has made the reverse move (13th → 14th), everyone expects him to do so. (The switcheroo was prompted by GOP line-drawing which shifted many of Clarke's constituents into Conyers' district and vice-versa.)

NV-01: Looks like we should have a pretty interesting Democratic primary in the new 1st CD. State Sen. Ruben Kihuen, who had long signaled his interest in running for Congress, says he plans to make a bid here—the same district where ex-Rep. Dina Titus lives and is hoping to make a comeback.

Other Races:

MI Recall: We haven't discussed this race before, but in case you weren't aware, there's a recall election scheduled for Nov. 8 in Michigan, where the Michigan Education Association has led a drive to recall state Rep. Paul Scott. The AP explains:

The union is unhappy with Scott, the chairman of the House Education Committee, for his leadership in new laws that weaken the role of teacher tenure in the state. The teachers union also is upset with Scott's support of proposals that cut education funding for the state budget year that started Oct. 1.

Scott is also a notorious gay-baiter. In Michigan, as in California (and unlike in Wisconsin), recalls are a simply thumbs-up or thumbs-down vote—Scott doesn't face any actual opponent. If the recall succeeds, then a separate special election will be held to fill the vacancy.

OH SB5: A weird poll on Issue 2 from the University of Akron finds voters opposed to SB5 by a 37-25 margin, which is obviously a ridiculous number of undecideds for a prominent election that's a little over a week away—and which also doesn't match other polling at all. Also, Akron reports its results to the tenth of a percent, a false level of accuracy which is one of my biggest polling peeves.

Grab Bag:

Census: Greg Giroux is out with another one of his always-fascinating spreadsheets, and it's a good complement to the income and poverty data I was looking at a few weeks ago: it's a ranking of all congressional districts according to income inequality, as measured by gini coefficients (a tool usually used at the national level when analyzing developing nations). Most polarized: NY-08, which contains the Upper West Side as well as working-class swaths of Brooklyn. Least polarized: uniformly affluent VA-11 in the DC suburbs. Also, for the DIY demographers among us, the Census Bureau recently released the rolling three-year American Community Survey estimates for the years 2008-2010, which thanks to larger sample sizes (compared with one-year ACS samples) provides a plethora of data for populations all the way down to 20,000. (David Jarman)

Redistricting Roundup:

NV Redistricting: Carson District Judge James Russell approved new congressional and legislative maps that were drawn by the court's special masters, clearing the way for the parties to appeal his ruling to the Nevada Supreme Court. The federal map is probably set, though, since Republicans withdrew their objections, conceding that the Voting Rights Act does not require the creation of a majority-minority Hispanic district. However, the GOP is still complaining about the legislative plans, the senate map in particular. A hearing is already set before the state's high court next month. (Note that Nevada does not have an intermediate appellate court.)

Note that Russell made a few tweaks to the legislative maps but does not appear to have changed the congressional map. You can find the new versions here.

OH Redistricting: Ohio's Supreme Court ruled that the clock should not get re-set for Democrats who want to gather signatures to put the state's controversial new redistricting map on the ballot for a voter referendum. You'll recall that the GOP tried to immunize their map from such a vote by attaching an election-related appropriation to the bill, but earlier this month, the high court said that a referendum could proceed. Ordinarily, opponents have 90 days from the passage of a law (in this case Sept. 26) to collect petitions, but Democrats wanted the start date moved forward to the day the court issued its prior ruling permitting the referendum, Oct. 14. Despite this setback, Democrats say they are confident they will gather sufficient signatures (231K) by the original deadline of Dec. 26.

Meanwhile, it sounds like the Legislative Black Caucus is once again back to negotiating an unholy alliance with Republicans over a new map, after having said they would work with Democrats instead. I was afraid this might happen (and said so at the time), since Democrats don't really have anything they can offer the LBC (except, well, the prospect of electing more Democrats). The GOP, meanwhile, is offering the carrot of a second heavily (but not majority) black district, though drawing one could constitute an illegal racial gerrymander, so it's not clear how wise this course of action would be even given the narrow aims of the LBC.

Originally posted to Daily Kos Elections on Mon Oct 31, 2011 at 05:00 AM PDT.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

EMAIL TO A FRIEND X
Your Email has been sent.
You must add at least one tag to this diary before publishing it.

Add keywords that describe this diary. Separate multiple keywords with commas.
Tagging tips - Search For Tags - Browse For Tags

?

More Tagging tips:

A tag is a way to search for this diary. If someone is searching for "Barack Obama," is this a diary they'd be trying to find?

Use a person's full name, without any title. Senator Obama may become President Obama, and Michelle Obama might run for office.

If your diary covers an election or elected official, use election tags, which are generally the state abbreviation followed by the office. CA-01 is the first district House seat. CA-Sen covers both senate races. NY-GOV covers the New York governor's race.

Tags do not compound: that is, "education reform" is a completely different tag from "education". A tag like "reform" alone is probably not meaningful.

Consider if one or more of these tags fits your diary: Civil Rights, Community, Congress, Culture, Economy, Education, Elections, Energy, Environment, Health Care, International, Labor, Law, Media, Meta, National Security, Science, Transportation, or White House. If your diary is specific to a state, consider adding the state (California, Texas, etc). Keep in mind, though, that there are many wonderful and important diaries that don't fit in any of these tags. Don't worry if yours doesn't.

You can add a private note to this diary when hotlisting it:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from your hotlist?
Are you sure you want to remove your recommendation? You can only recommend a diary once, so you will not be able to re-recommend it afterwards.
Rescue this diary, and add a note:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from Rescue?
Choose where to republish this diary. The diary will be added to the queue for that group. Publish it from the queue to make it appear.

You must be a member of a group to use this feature.

Add a quick update to your diary without changing the diary itself:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary?
(The diary will be removed from the site and returned to your drafts for further editing.)
(The diary will be removed.)
Are you sure you want to save these changes to the published diary?

Comment Preferences

  •  Ohio redistricting (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, TofG, MichaelNY

    Given that there are now 8 weeks to get enough signatures to stop the GOP plan, I wonder where the petition efforts are happening, if they have indeed begun?

    The group Ohioans for Fair Districts doesn't appear to have a website. The ballot language was approved on Oct. 21, so there should be nothing stopping the printing and circulating of petitions at this point.

  •  Apparently, the Ohio GOP... (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    TofG, MichaelNY

    ....is also negotiating separately with the regular Ohio Democratic party as well:

    http://www.cleveland.com/...

    divide and conquer, I guess.

    GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

    by LordMike on Mon Oct 31, 2011 at 05:48:52 AM PDT

  •  The Ohio Democratic Party seems to have the (0+ / 0-)

    backbone, and perspicacity, of a jellyfish.

    I hope I'm wrong but...

  •  Connie Mack (doing his best Mighty Mouse): (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, SoCalGal23

    "Here I come to save the daaaayyyy!!"

    "Guys? Guys?? (Turns to staff) Okay, which one of you clowns advanced this turkey??"

    Occupy Wall Street AND K Street!!!!

    by Egalitare on Mon Oct 31, 2011 at 06:47:29 AM PDT

  •  Boy oh boy. That Akron Buckeye poll is awesome. (0+ / 0-)

    Amazing accuracy.
    And so far away from reality.

    Ironically, the poll comes from the Bliss Institue (sic).

    Yes, I copied the title right from their report headline.

    Bliss Institue Reports on Issue 2 and 3

    Maybe one feels a sense of bliss when entering their building. But I'm not sure what an Institue is.

    So much for carefully prepared polls and reports.

    "All people are born alike - except Republicans and Democrats" - Groucho Marx

    by GrumpyOldGeek on Mon Oct 31, 2011 at 06:50:22 AM PDT

    •  Please read the whole poll.... (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, MichaelNY

      ...before pooh poohing it.  That topline number is only for those firmly decided.  If you include leaners, then it's more credible.  The reason why they have levels of "leaning", is that they use that info to determine enthusiasm.  The poll does a bunch of different modeling (including historical modeling) to show likely voter characteristics and they also have a nice analysis of early voting.

      They have lots of other results based on the models, all the way from the race being a squeaker (2009 model), to a major blowout (2008 model and enthusiasm gap model).

      It really has a lot of great info and is well worth reading.

      GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

      by LordMike on Mon Oct 31, 2011 at 06:57:51 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  NY-08: So I wonder… (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Marcus Graly, MichaelNY

    …how it is possible for a district to contain

    the Upper West Side as well as working-class swaths of Brooklyn
    when the Upper West is nowhere near, much less contiguous too, Brooklyn.

    So I look at the map and I realize that NY-08 is a magic district that gives Jerry Nadler its own ferry fairy to connect the two parts together.
    Image and video hosting by TinyPic

    That district isn't a gerrymander, it's a gerryeel.

    Teh stoopidTM, it hurts. Buy smart, union-printed, USA-made, signs, stickers, swag for everyone: DemSign.com. Get your We are the 99% Yard Sign.

    by DemSign on Mon Oct 31, 2011 at 07:20:17 AM PDT

  •  Anybody want to primary (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    sapelcovits, MichaelNY

    Sandra Williams?

    •  Nothing has has happened yet. (0+ / 0-)

      Can we wait to see what happens first?

      20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

      by ndrwmls10 on Mon Oct 31, 2011 at 07:34:01 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  idk (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, GradyDem

        from what people on here have said about her, it seems like she kind of needs one no matter what. Plus she voted for the map the first time around.

        21, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

        by sapelcovits on Mon Oct 31, 2011 at 09:07:48 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  I don't have much faith in her (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        sapelcovits

        But perhaps most importantly, she voted for the original map, because it maintained Marcia Fudge's black district. Or something like that.

        Sometimes I think African Americans would rather be in the minority and see their rights reversed than see any progress.

        •  Wow.... (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          So you know what is best for the African American community? You think the African American community would much rather see their rights reversed?

          Oh wait this is coming from a man who thinks the racial problem in Mississippi is the African American communities fault.  

          20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

          by ndrwmls10 on Tue Nov 01, 2011 at 08:33:26 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  I'm sure he wasn't referring to all AAs (0+ / 0-)

            as we've seen with things like DADT, politicians can sometimes be horrifically out of touch with the people. But the backstabbing by Democrats white or black has to stop. There is NO excuse.

            21, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

            by sapelcovits on Tue Nov 01, 2011 at 08:57:23 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

          •  Well, (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            jncca

            I think it's a given fact that Republicans don't care about civil rights/progressive legislation. I hope you would agree with me. AA's should know by now that Republicans controlling government gives them less rights. (Where does progressive legislation get passed?) All in all, support for Republican dominance = you are okay with anti-civil rights legislation. It's basically that.

            And you love to trot out the racist (or sexist) card constantly. Racism is not the problem in Mississippi. It's the inability for AA's to reach out to 15% of whites. But guess what? White Democrats can win. (cough Jim Hood, cough) I guess you'd rather have Haley Barbour then?

            •  Of course these are totally unconnected (0+ / 0-)
              Racism is not the problem in Mississippi. It's the inability for AA's to reach out to 15% of whites.

              Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

              by MichaelNY on Tue Nov 01, 2011 at 06:50:29 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  If you've been following my conversation (0+ / 0-)

                with ndrwmis10, you'll know that he thinks the entire problem in Mississippi is whites - That's not the entire problem, and that's what I meant.

                You also know (from an exchange we had weeks ago) that AAs did not do their part to help get Musgrove elected. In the case of DuPree, both whites and blacks are at fault. My problem is that ndrwmis likes to blame whites exclusively for the fact that DuPree is not going to get elected. But it's both whites and blacks.

  •  Final (?) Williams-Farmer ad (0+ / 0-)

    A negative one starring -Freddie Mercury- Richie Farmer.
    http://mycn2.com/...

    'An eye for an eye makes the whole world blind.' -Mahatma Gandhi

    by KingofSpades on Mon Oct 31, 2011 at 07:39:05 AM PDT

  •  Your take on IL-13 is weird. (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    JGibson, dc1000, askew

    Hoffman had a huge handicap in being known for extremely close ties to Blago.

    It's unclear why you are convinced that David Gill, our sole standing candidate, has no chance. He lost before in a district that was thoroughly gerrymandered R. This time he's in a swing district. He has no major negatives. He's distinctly progressive and has many enthusiastic volunteers.

    The only major negative on him is that he's not a great fundraiser. That's what Orange to Blue is supposed to be all about. Your strange take can be a self-fulfilling prophecy losing us the one recognized swing district in IL.

    WTF indeed!

    Michael Weissman UID 197542

    by docmidwest on Mon Oct 31, 2011 at 07:55:08 AM PDT

    •  Self-fulfilling prophecy? (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jncca, David Nir, andgarden

      I love the folks who run this sub-site, but I think you're ascribing way too much power to them.

      And being a lousy fundraiser is a HUGE handicap! Haven't we seen in the past that in such situations, the DCCC and DSCC are reluctant to throw good money after bad (Ohio-Senate comes to mind)?

      Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

      by MichaelNY on Mon Oct 31, 2011 at 10:35:40 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Illinois 13 (5+ / 0-)

    Doctor David Gill is running again against Tim Johnson.   While I understand he has not held any office,  Gill has done respectfully against Johnson in the past.  And as we saw 2 years ago with successful tea party candidates, obsession with political bonafides may miss the point in these rotten times.  Plus apparently Johnson in the new district does not poll well, down 20 percent against "unknown."  So why don't you give the emergency room doc David Gill some respect instead of ignoring him.

       

    •  I'm gonna have to take issue with this (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      dc1000, MichaelNY, jncca

      Gill has not done respectably in the past. He is a perennial candidate who has lost to Johnson three times, none of which were particularly close.

      •  That was in IL-15 gerrymandered strong-R. (0+ / 0-)

        his is IL-13, a swing district.

        Michael Weissman UID 197542

        by docmidwest on Mon Oct 31, 2011 at 09:32:10 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  He got 42% in 2006 (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KingofSpades, MichaelNY

        Which is the best performance out of any Johnson challenger. He's obviously not the type of candidate we're looking for, but I think he very clearly registers over a "some dude." I'd say he fits somewhere between a Bob Massie at worst and a Dan Seals at best.

        "Every daring attempt to make a great change in existing conditions, every lofty vision of new possibilities for the human race, has been labeled Utopian."

        by xcave on Mon Oct 31, 2011 at 09:44:36 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Am I making this too simple (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          when I say that we need to look not so much at past performance but at what might be done in the future AND how this compares to other possible pick ups? If the district is bluer than before and it's clearly not averse to voting for Democrats, even if it favors Republicans, does it seem that impossible to build a coalition?

        •  thanks for the information (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          docmidwest, MichaelNY

          I kinda of put Gill in the Christine Cegelis category.   Candidates get written off the powers that be and marginalized and any grass roots backing is discounted.  By not looking at Gill seriously, and treating him as an also ran, one gets the sense that ILlinois Democrats will find another candidate whose only function will be to burn up Democratic dollars in a primary (see Cegelis - Duckworth).  

          My problem with Gill is also the problem with Cegelis which is they aren't hungry and working hard enough for the job.  They didn't dial for dollars and keep in potnetial backer's face.

          And the fact is is Tim Johnson is a total joke though he plays well enough with certain Demcoratic constituencies, like labor,  to blunt a serious Democratic effort against him.  But have we have seen with this Congress, the issue should clearly be which side are you on - if you ain't a friend your an enemy  

  •  Does David Gill = Bob Massie? (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    sapelcovits, MichaelNY

    I think I might sense a DKE meme developing...

    25, originally OK-1, currently NY-8. Former swingnut.

    by okiedem on Mon Oct 31, 2011 at 08:26:21 AM PDT

  •  KY-Gov: Beshear's final ad is positive (0+ / 0-)

    'An eye for an eye makes the whole world blind.' -Mahatma Gandhi

    by KingofSpades on Mon Oct 31, 2011 at 08:53:13 AM PDT

  •  DOJ approves SC congressional map (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    dc1000, MichaelNY

    So any hope of the DOJ forcing another black-majority seat is gone.

    People panic too much on this site.

    by thematt523 on Mon Oct 31, 2011 at 08:58:51 AM PDT

    •  Just as well (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, dc1000

      The more blacks are compacted, the less likely we have any chance of winning the other seats if demographics change.

      People panic too much on this site.

      by thematt523 on Mon Oct 31, 2011 at 08:59:49 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  The demos aren't going to change enough (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        dc1000, James Allen

        Ok, so I read the polls.

        by andgarden on Mon Oct 31, 2011 at 09:55:19 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Either way (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          I'd rather have a bunch of R+7 to R+10 seats than a bunch of R+20 seats.

          People panic too much on this site.

          by thematt523 on Mon Oct 31, 2011 at 01:07:45 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  I don't really like (0+ / 0-)

          making as many minority districts as possible. One or two is fine, but to make as many as possible only makes more Republican districts.

          If we split Corrine Brown's district into the districts around it, the districts of Cliff Stearns, Sandy Adams, John Mica, and Dan Webster would become more swingy. I'd rather have more "less Republican" seats than one solid D district and a bunch of solid GOP ones.

          People panic too much on this site.

          by thematt523 on Mon Oct 31, 2011 at 01:13:28 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  In the deep south, the choice is between (5+ / 0-)

            minority-majority and republican dominance--with very few exceptions.

            Ok, so I read the polls.

            by andgarden on Mon Oct 31, 2011 at 01:17:58 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  In that case (0+ / 0-)

              Yes, of course. But SC has 25%-30% whites who vote for Dems, as opposed to MS or AL, who only gave 10%. For comparison, Obama got 35% of the white vote in North Carolina. It makes a big difference.

              In shrinking Deep South states, yes, make as many as possible. But in places where white voters vote slightly more Democratic, and not having them creates more swing seats, like Central Florida or the Midwest, stop that idea immediately.

              People panic too much on this site.

              by thematt523 on Mon Oct 31, 2011 at 02:56:06 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

          •  from the same guy who argued against (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY, bumiputera

            putting resources into conservative districts when we have more progressive options?

            If we can get an additional D+5 majority black district in a southern state, it's better for us than having 3 or 4 R+7 districts to choose from, even if it means every other district around the majority black district will be R+13.  It means an additional relatively liberal Democrat, as opposed to the possibility of several Blue Dogs.

            I changed by not changing at all, small town predicts my fate, perhaps that's what no one wants to see. -6.38, -4.15

            by James Allen on Mon Oct 31, 2011 at 04:08:03 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  True (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              James Allen

              I knew people here would say that. And you have a point. And in heavily Republican areas where Democrats get very little white voters, I'd agree with you.

              Maybe South Carolina wasn't the greatest example. But as I said, Central Florida, which would have far more swing seats if Corrine Brown's seat weren't there.

              I believe that making a lot of minority-majority districts can hurt us. We always complain about how the Democratic vote is so concentrated; well, that's partly why.

              People panic too much on this site.

              by thematt523 on Mon Oct 31, 2011 at 04:20:39 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  yeah, which is why nearly all of the talk about (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                HoosierD42

                making more VRA districts is in Texas and the Deep South (GA, SC, AL, MS, LA) where there is much more racially polarized voting.  I mean, I'd definitely take one extra black majority seat in each of SC, AL, MS, and LA over the chance at 5 or 6 seats with deep Blue Dogs in those states, though I did like Cazayoux.

                I changed by not changing at all, small town predicts my fate, perhaps that's what no one wants to see. -6.38, -4.15

                by James Allen on Mon Oct 31, 2011 at 04:33:13 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

              •  what proves you right (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                HoosierD42

                I drew a 36% black district in one of my Arkansas maps that could elect a black Democrat, without packing it all the way to majority.  How?  I added the Mississippi area with Little Rock, creating a district that Obama and Kerry both won with like 55% or so of the vote.  Obviously if Obama won it with 55% or so then it'll vote for a black Democrat.  And at 36% or so black, African Americans will have a huge role in the primary and be able to nominate a black Democrat.

                I changed by not changing at all, small town predicts my fate, perhaps that's what no one wants to see. -6.38, -4.15

                by James Allen on Mon Oct 31, 2011 at 04:37:57 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

    •  Not really surprised (5+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, dc1000, MichaelNY, jncca, bear83

      there was no issue of retrogression, just one of progression (so to speak). I'll be watching closely to see whether they approve of GA and NC.

      21, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

      by sapelcovits on Mon Oct 31, 2011 at 09:16:26 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  NV Redistricting (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    dc1000

    I'm willing to bet that Nevada Supreme Court will kick this back to the Legislature:

    Nevada Constitution: "It shall be the mandatory duty of the Legislature at its first session after the taking of the decennial census of the United States in the year 1950, and after each subsequent decennial census, to fix by law the number of Senators and Assemblymen, and apportion them among the several counties of the State, or among legislative districts which may be established by law, according to the number of inhabitants in them, respectively."

    U.S. Constitution:  "The Times, Places and Manner of holding Elections for Senators and Representatives, shall be prescribed in each State by the Legislature thereof..."

    If the Governor calls them into a special session, both he and Legislature will then be under extreme pressure to adopt the maps as approved by Judge Russell. I think these maps, for the most part, seem fair with the exception of some sprawling Assembly/Senate districts that were poorly drawn in Washoe County.

    •  But why? (9+ / 0-)

      Let's say the NV supremos kick it back to the lege. What if the lege and Sandoval still can't reach agreement? That's what courts are for—to right constitutional violations.

      Political Director, Daily Kos

      by David Nir on Mon Oct 31, 2011 at 09:48:06 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Here's why... (0+ / 0-)

        From someone smarter than me:

        Judge Russell should have found the legislature failed to fulfill its constitutional obligation, maybe direct the Gov to call a special session (See Dungan vs. Sawyer, 1965). If the legislature and Gov Sandoval can't agree, then they pay the political price and the state must endure the consequences.  That doesn't license the courts to violate the constitution in order to remedy a constitutional violation!  Just because the legislature could not produce a budget in 2003, the courts did not proceed to write one.

        Even setting aside the constitutional issues, there is also a legitimate policy question at issue in redistricting between the Republican and Democratic plans.  Who is Todd Russell to make the choice between those two?  Are the courts then supposed to decide whether Judge Russell (rather than the legislature) is in compliance with the Voting Rights Act? The situation is absurd.

        Getting the legislature to do its job and protecting the separation of powers must both be done.  The notion that if one fails, the other must fail too is Judge Russell's doctrine, not that of the framers of the constitutions.

        •  Well (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, andgarden, itskevin

          The US Constitution would trump the NV state constitution in this case, and if remedying a one-person, one-vote violation that violates the former would seemingly cause a violation of the latter, so be it. I also don't understand this:

          If the legislature and Gov Sandoval can't agree, then they pay the political price and the state must endure the consequences. That doesn't license the courts to violate the constitution in order to remedy a constitutional violation!

          What consequences? And yes, a federal constitutional violation does give the courts license to step in.

          Political Director, Daily Kos

          by David Nir on Mon Oct 31, 2011 at 01:48:25 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  But in which court? (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            I sure don't know the answer to that question.

            Ok, so I read the polls.

            by andgarden on Mon Oct 31, 2011 at 02:09:28 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

          •  And so (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            What is the remedy for a federal constitutional violation? To issue orders for the executive and legislative branches to do their jobs, not to do it for them, unless there's a very extreme situation.

            Can you name a case where the the courts have written reapportionment plans?

            In any case, our Legislature pretty much gave up after a very feeble attempt. Judge Russell should have done it for them as the last resort, not the first.

            Time to pass out Halloween candy. BTW, Happy Nevada Day!

            •  You make it sound like something extreme (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY, itskevin

              And unusual. But courts have been drafting maps for years and years — ever since Baker v. Carr, which was decided half a century ago. The current Colorado map, the current Minnesota map, the current Texas map were all wholly or partly court-drawn.

              Political Director, Daily Kos

              by David Nir on Mon Oct 31, 2011 at 05:25:24 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

  •  What KY Gov Beshear actually said... (5+ / 0-)

    was that if he is reelected as Governor, he will not then resign to challenge Mitch McConnell in 2014, nor Rand Paul in 2016.

    http://mycn2.com/...

  •  Dale Shultz opposes Lazich's redistricting bill (6+ / 0-)

    that would push up implementation of all the new districts to 2012.
    http://www.jsonline.com/...
    Yep, it's dead.  No Democrat will vote for it.

    'An eye for an eye makes the whole world blind.' -Mahatma Gandhi

    by KingofSpades on Mon Oct 31, 2011 at 09:13:06 AM PDT

  •  WI-Sen: Kohl on Baldwin: (7+ / 0-)
    “I know Tammy Baldwin and she’s an outstanding person. She’s been a great representative for this part of Wisconsin,” said Kohl. “I believe she’ll be an outstanding candidate. If she’s our nominee what advice she asks more for I’ll be happy to provide.”
    http://www.wrn.com/...

    20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

    by ndrwmls10 on Mon Oct 31, 2011 at 09:17:17 AM PDT

  •  AZ Redistricting: The comission (9+ / 0-)

    has voted to hire lawyers to defend themselves against the Jan Brewer led Republican assault.

    I especially like this quote from Kyrsten Sinema:

    "If you're used to getting the whole pie, and all of a sudden you only get three-quarters of a pie, well, yeah, you're going to be upset," she said.
    http://ktar.com/...

    20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

    by ndrwmls10 on Mon Oct 31, 2011 at 09:22:26 AM PDT

  •  MS races? (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    dc1000, MichaelNY

    Has there been any recent polling of MS races?  Has Dupree made any headway in the gubernatorial race?  And MSNBC was all over a "personhood amendment" that threatens to outlaw birth control and put women who have miscarriages under suspicion.  What are the chances of that amendment?

    •  It'll likely pass. Even Jim Hood is in favor of i (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, jncca

      But it'll probably be blocked in court since it is completely off-base legally and constitutionally.

      'An eye for an eye makes the whole world blind.' -Mahatma Gandhi

      by KingofSpades on Mon Oct 31, 2011 at 09:47:03 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Yeah the personhood amendment is DOA (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      Even if it does pass it's a blatant violation of Planned Parenthood v. Casey and won't actually have any effect. I do get the sense though that these sorts of initiatives are at least partially enacted in order to give the Supreme Court a chance to revisit Casey under the theory that the the court will offer a more restrictive standard for review of anti-abortion laws now that Kennedy rather than O'Connor is the swing vote on the court.

      25, originally OK-1, currently NY-8. Former swingnut.

      by okiedem on Mon Oct 31, 2011 at 09:54:05 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  But this kind of extremism (0+ / 0-)

        is so out there that not only would Kennedy never give it the time of day, but it might even get more than 5 votes against. In fact, though, the Supreme Court would never even hear the case.

        Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

        by MichaelNY on Mon Oct 31, 2011 at 10:45:07 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  IL-13 and non-linear effects (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    From a quick look at the old IL-15 PVI on Wikipedia, extrapolating to the new IL-13 should give Gill a baseline in the high 40's. However, in the past elections he had no money, because nationally and locally we all knew there was no chance. This time there's an obvious real chance, unless we jump ship. The only counter-argument I've heard is that he won't have money- because he won't have money, because.... Not a good loop.

    It's just totally beyond me why we would blow an opportunity to support an appealing progressive in a swing district.

    More and better Democrats, right?

    Michael Weissman UID 197542

    by docmidwest on Mon Oct 31, 2011 at 10:04:26 AM PDT

    •  Are you sure Hoffman's Blago ties would've hurt? (0+ / 0-)

      How close was he?  Also, he's now running for a House seat in East Springfield.  I presume that's gerrymandered to favor a Democrat, right?

      'An eye for an eye makes the whole world blind.' -Mahatma Gandhi

      by KingofSpades on Mon Oct 31, 2011 at 10:07:58 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  re Blago (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KingofSpades, MichaelNY

        If you Google Hoffman, what comes up are a lot of newspaper articles about his closeness to Blago. (see e.g. http://en.wikipedia.org/...) I think that's what cost him his old seat.  

        Winning is extremely important, but, other things being equal, it's also good to have a progressive. Hoffman was not pro-choice, which would have made him an odd Kos favorite. Losing with a non-progressive particularly sucks.

        Dunno about the state house seat- I'm from another part of the district.

        Michael Weissman UID 197542

        by docmidwest on Mon Oct 31, 2011 at 10:18:01 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  The thing is, Johnson didn't have much money (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen, MichaelNY

      for his races, either. For the past couple of cycles, he's raised less than $400,000, even as he has sometimes carried money over. Meanwhile, Gill has raised about 50 to 67 percent of what Johnson has raised each cycle. I'm not sure why this is, but it's not a situation where the Democrat is vastly out raised and out  spent.

      •  incumbent effects: (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        In a low-spending race, the incumbent is strongly favored. We get official (free) mailings from Johnson regularly. The news covered him regularly. Incumbents start with a big advantage that's hard to challenge unless there's a real visible campaign.

        These are rather general considerations, not specific to this race. Johnson had no reason to spend because of the combination of incumbency and a strong R district.

        Michael Weissman UID 197542

        by docmidwest on Mon Oct 31, 2011 at 10:22:53 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Of course, but even those incumbents (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          in districts where the media markets aren't as expensive as those in, say, New York, Los Angeles, or Boston usually raised at least $1 million. It's usually more, in fact.

          I know virtually nothing about what Johnson's district is like. Just by looking at a picture of it, I'm guessing it's pretty rural and/or with the population very spread out. If so, then it makes sense about why he's able to raise and spend so little.

          Whatever the case, Gill wasn't drastically outspent. Perhaps he needed to not only match Johnson but to even double or triple what he raised and spent to be competitive, especially because of the Republican lean of the district. That's not a bad thing, I guess, since the total spending for the district is pretty low and, in comparison to what might need to be spent elsewhere, we could try to pick up this district and one other like it for the cost of one normal district.

          Or perhaps, given the type of district it is, some door-to-door style campaigning would work.

    •  Money can often be a symptom, not a cause (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      Fundraising can say a lot about how a campaign is being run. Also, all other things being equal, I will always prefer candidates who don't need to be bailed out by the DCCC - that money could go elsewhere.

      21, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

      by sapelcovits on Mon Oct 31, 2011 at 10:39:54 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Titus wants to run in NV-01? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    I thought she was seeking a rematch against Heck.

    Unapologetic Obama supporter.

    by Red Sox on Mon Oct 31, 2011 at 10:21:04 AM PDT

  •  Rasmussen sees Perry stronger then Mit in WIprez (0+ / 0-)
  •  NC State Senator Passes Away (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, SoCalGal23
    State Sen. Jim Forrester, R-Gaston, passed away Monday. He was 74.

    The 11-term senator had suffered from health problems for some time before falling ill over the weekend

    Forrester was elected deputy Senate leader this year – a largely ceremonial post – as the GOP controlled the chamber for the first time in more than a century. He earned a legislative victory in September when the General Assembly approved a May statewide constitutional referendum on whether to ban gay marriage in North Carolina.

    He also made headlines recently for calling Asheville "a cesspool of sin" and came under scrutiny after allegations that he might have misrepresented himself on his resume. He said the errors were inadvertent.

    Local GOP officials will submit a nominee to Gov Perdue to serve the rest of his term. Under NC law, the appointee must be from the same party.

    http://www.wral.com/...

    "Here is my principle: Taxes shall be levied according to ability to pay. That is the only American principle." Franklin D. Roosevelt

    by bear83 on Mon Oct 31, 2011 at 01:07:04 PM PDT

    •  Updated Wikipedia (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      I assume the appointee will be installed soon, however.

      23, Solid Liberal Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut

      by HoosierD42 on Mon Oct 31, 2011 at 02:33:57 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I think it will be 30-60 days (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        Local committees have to meet and select nominee to submit to the Governor. Gov. then makes appointment.

        No hurry, really - it's not as if the NC Lege. is doing anything.

        "Here is my principle: Taxes shall be levied according to ability to pay. That is the only American principle." Franklin D. Roosevelt

        by bear83 on Mon Oct 31, 2011 at 04:05:04 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

Subscribe or Donate to support Daily Kos.

Click here for the mobile view of the site