Insert joke about "something called volcano monitoring" here
Univ. of Washington (PDF). 10/10-30. Registered voters. MoE ±3.2% (no trendlines):
Jay Inslee (D): 38
Rob McKenna (R): 45
Undecided: 18
Here's one more poll to add to the heap of recent polls (along with those from SurveyUSA, who had it at 44-38 last month, and Strategies360) to show Republican AG Rob McKenna with a lead in the 6-7 point range... and this one comes from one of the most skilled pollsters of Washington state, the Univ. of Washington's Matt Barreto. (You might recall that UW came by far the closest to pinning down the 5-1/2 point margin of 2010's Senate race.)
It's, of course, not good news for Democratic Rep. Jay Inslee, but basically the same old story as the last few polls: McKenna, who's elected statewide, has much stronger name rec (47/20 favorables) than Inslee (33/17). The race will tighten as currently-undecided Dem-leaners come home to Inslee, but this is on track to come down to the wire.
There's a plethora of other data in the poll, too:
- Barack Obama wins Washington pretty easily, though not by 2008 margins: 50-41 against Mitt Romney and 54-41 against Rick Perry.
- There aren't any WA-Sen head-to-heads, but Maria Cantwell is the most popular person or entity they tested, with 53/34 faves.
- The phrasing's a little contorted, but in a hypothetical gay marriage referendum, voters would support gay marriage 55-38. Support for marijuana legalization runs at 48-42.
- Outcomes still are up in the air for the two major initiatives on this November's statewide ballot. Initiative 1125 (the latest shit sandwich from initiative huckster Tim Eyman, which seeks to limit the state's ability to levy tolls on roads) is passing by a 41-40 margin. (This seems like another one of the frequent instances where support for an initiative veers downward as soon as voters start learning, close to the election, that it's another Eyman project.) Initiative 1183, which seeks to turn the state liquor store network over to our new Costco overlords, is passing 50-43.