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Leading Off:

AZ Redistricting: With Gov. Jan Brewer having successfully orchestrated the impeachment by the GOP-controlled state Senate of the Independent Redistricting Commission's pivotal independent member, Colleen Mathis, the big question now is "What next?" And nobody seems to know what's next. The authors of the 2000 ballot measure that created the IRC, including the Republican ones, all blasted the power grab, but they, of course, have no authority at this point. The IRC's attorney says they still consider Mathis the chairwoman, but an Arizona Supreme Court hearing on the matter won't be held until later in the week. In the meantime, the IRC is continuing to work, although without a tie-breaking vote, meaning the commission is deadlocked between 2 Ds and 2Rs and nothing will happen for now. Eventually, the state Commission on Appellate Court Appointments will meet to pick a list of three registered independents, one of whom will be picked by the 4 remaining IRC members to join the team... at which point it's unclear whether the maps will be scrapped, modified, or what.

Senate:

MD-Sen: In case anyone had Maryland's junior senator, Democrat Ben Cardin, on a retirement watch list, you can take him off. He announced he'll be officially kicking off his re-election campaign over the weekend. Cardin hadn't done anything this cycle to imply retirement, though, other than the simple act of being 68.

MO-Sen: Businessman/third wheel in GOP Senate primary John Brunner may not have any name rec, but he does have a lot of money. So, naturally, he's trying to solve the former with the latter, with a new TV ad salvo. No word on the size of the buy, and it's a pretty boilerplate speak-to-the-camera bio spot.

MT-Sen, MT-Gov: Here's a poll of the Montana Senate race from a pollster we aren't very familiar with... but, on the other hand, they seem to see the race exactly how everyone else sees it, which is a tie. MSU-Billings finds 36.3% supporting Republican challenger Rep. Denny Rehberg, 35.5% supporting Dem incumbent Jon Tester, and 25% undecided. (As we are no lovers of significant digits, we'll just call that 36-36.) They also ran the Governor's race, but apparently just as a generic ballot, where the Republican leads the Democrat 33-31. (Based on the way the poll is written up, it sounds like they may actually have asked the Senate race in the same way, which makes no sense as the field is set.)

ND-Sen: Former Democratic AG Heidi Heitkamp isn't even officially in the race yet (and it's not a done deal she ever will be), but the state GOP is already firing shots across her bow. They're running a full-page ad in the state's two major papers, using various damning quotes to convict her of the crime of (gasp) supporting Barack Obama in 2008. Anyway, that's probably a good sign, if the GOP is actually sweating this race a bit; even if the odds are somewhat against Heitkamp retaining Kent Conrad's seat, she's imposing enough that the GOP will need to put a lot of resources into the race that they can't deploy elsewhere.

NY-Sen: Given that she won in 2010, you might have forgotten that Kirsten Gillibrand has to do it all over again in 2012—that race last year was a special election for the final two years of Hillary Clinton's term. She has no announced opponent, and it's unlikely the GOP will scrape up more than a sacrificial lamb here... but Marist (on behalf of NY1) finds Gillibrand still kind of unknown after three years on the job. On a generic re-elect question, she's at 39, with 22 against, and 39 unsure.

Gubernatorial:

FL-Gov: That Suffolk poll of Florida that's been getting attention for its various odds and ends (a plurality thinking that the GOP is intentionally tanking the economy; suspicion over Marco Rubio's story but also finding that he greatly enhances a Mitt Romney ticket's odds) also had some Rick Scott numbers buried at the end. Gov. Cueball's performance is viewed as 26 positive and 37 negative, and he still loses a rematch with Alex Sink, 37-36.

WI-Gov, WI-LG: There's no two-fer for Dems in Wisconsin: Instead of being able to recall both Scott Walker and Lt. Gov. Rebecca Kleefisch at the same time, they'll have to collect separate petitions for each recall race. This is all according to an opinion from Republican Attorney General J.B. Van Hollen, who of course would prefer to make things more difficult for Dems, so this may get challenged in court. In Wisconsin, as you probably know, a recall election involves an actual opponent, so a successful recall of Walker would result in the immediate election of his Democratic opponent, rather than a scenario where Kleefisch takes over... so it's probably not a big deal if Dems don't bother pursuing Kleefisch separately.

House:

AZ-09: Here's a guy who might want to put things on hold while the redistricting situation in Arizona sorts itself out. Tempe's former mayor from 1994 to 2004, Neil Giuliano, is considering a run in the 9th District... which, on draft maps, was a swing district that a strong Democrat could win (and as major of a large suburb, he'd at least have name rec). At this point, though, who knows what the map will look like. Giuliano was former President of GLAAD and is currently CEO of the San Francisco AIDS Foundation, but still lives in Tempe.

CA-32: Roll Call looks at David Dreier's dilemma; everything seems to be on hold for the California Republican while he waits on the outcome of a federal court suit against the new Congressional map passed by the state's independent commission. As for seeking reelection, he says "it depends on the lines;" in the meantime, even fundraising's on hold, as he raised only $44K last quarter. (He's highly unlikely to run in the Hispanic-majority 32nd, where his house is, but assuming the current map passes muster, he could run in the still Hispanic-majority but swingier 31st, or if Jerry Lewis decides to retire instead of run in the new 8th, carpetbag his way further north.) The article compares him to Rep. Gary Miller, also a likely redistricting casualty, but at least one who's actively engaging his race (against fellow GOPer Ed Royce) and threatening to bring some of his own large net worth into the race.

CA-44: Democratic Rep. Laura Richardson, who's been pretty underwhelming from the start, is looking like one of the likeliest redistricting casualties (she faces both fellow Rep. Janice Hahn and Assemblyman Isadore Hall in her new district)... and her ethics woes aren't helping her case. In a sign that she might be facing some serious consequences when the Ethics Committee rules on her case, she said in a private letter earlier this week to the Committee that she'd accept minor sanctions over accusations that she had staffers on her congressional payroll do campaign activities. (That's the kind of thing you don't offer to do unless you're likely to face major sanctions instead.) The Committee's ruling could come very soon.

And here's a little more on Richardson's woes. You probably know that the Kinde Durkee saga (where a prominent Dem behind-the-scenes money-handler was actually embezzling from campaign accounts) snagged Dianne Feinstein, Susan Davis, and both Loretta and Linda Sanchez. Now it turns out that Richardson lost money too, although a smaller amount: $18K in Richardson campaign funds are currently frozen, and the Richardson camp isn't reporting any other losses because the campaign still hasn't "finished its financial review." More alarmingly, they're reporting $117K cash on hand... and a whopping $460K in debt before any Durkee-related writedown. Now that's a house in disarray.

FL-14: We're already up to three Republicans fighting over the newly-open 14th, vacated mere days ago by Connie Mack IV for his yes-no-oh, OK, yes Senate run. We'd previously mentioned Chauncey Goss (the son of ex-Rep. Porter Goss) and Lee County Commissioner Tammy Hall, and now another filing has surfaced: state Rep. Gary Aubuchon, whom we mentioned as a possibility the other day.

IL-10: This is a little surprising: if there was one person not currently in the Democratic field in the 10th who I'd expect to get in, it would be former state Rep. Julie Hamos... she sort of had right of first refusal after losing the 2010 primary to Dan Seals, and now it's a much friendlier seat for Dems after redistricting. However, on Thursday she endorsed Brad Schneider, the more centrist of the two Dems in the field so far (Ilya Sheyman is the other one). I'd still expect an elected Dem to get in this race; maybe others will jump now that Hamos has declined. (Time is running short, however, as petitions need to be submitted in early December.)

MD-04: This'll be a very interesting primary to watch: Glenn Ivey, the former state's attorney for Prince George's County (the black-majority suburb east of Washington DC, where most of the 4th is located), officially kicked off a challenge to Rep. Donna Edwards (who herself got where she is through a successful netroots-backed primary challenge to Al Wynn). Ivey is better connected in Annapolis, where Edwards didn't make any new friends last month with her brief opposition to the new redistricting map. What may help Edwards here is that another possible entrant, Anne Arundel County Council member James Benoit, is also interested in the race, which could split any anti-Edwards vote.

NV-01: Ex-Rep. Dina Titus (who got bounced out of NV-03 by GOPer Joe Heck in '10) was expected to make a comeback bid this year; the main question was where. On Thursday, she officially answered that: as expected, it'll be NV-01, the central Las Vegas district being vacated by Shelley Berkley (no surprise, since that's where her house is and it's a much bluer district than the 3rd). The tradeoff for a safer district in the general is that she'll have to get through a tough primary first, against state Sen. Ruben Kihuen. There had been some encouragement from some circles for her to run against Heck again, but most likely we'll have a strong candidate there too, in the form of another state legislator, Assemblyman John Oceguera.

PA-04: Two environmental advocacy groups, the League of Conservation Voters and the National Resource Defense Council, are out with a pretty substantial ad buy against Democratic Rep. Jason Altmire ($350K). I've gotta wonder, though, whether it's a good investment dropping major cash on a Blue Dog in a smokestack-industry district where the charges aren't likely to resonate with his constituents, when there are faux-environmentalist Republicans in districts that are very receptive to environmental appeals who need softening up (cough, cough, Dave Reichert, cough...).

RI-01: Former Gov. Don Carcieri is about as big a name as this very small state's very small Republican Party has, so it's worth noting that he's offered an endorsement in the GOP primary in the 1st. He backed the more moderate Brendan Doherty (former state police chief) over state Rep. (and '10 candidate) John Loughlin.

WA-03: Vancouver-based Democratic state Sen. Craig Pridemore announced yesterday that he'll run for state Auditor (to replace retiring long-timer Brian Sonntag). I'm filing this under WA-03, though, because Pridemore ran for a while in the primary to succeed Brian Baird in 2010, eventually pulling out in the face of fellow Dem Denny Heck's megabucks... and he'd have been a fairly strong contender for another run at Jaime Herrera Beutler next year. Dems are still looking for a candidate in the 3rd, a swing district likely to get a little redder after redistricting.

Other Races:

Indianapolis Mayor: Here's one more poll of one of next Tuesday's many mayoral races. An EPIC-MRA poll for WISH-TV finds incumbent Republican mayor Greg Ballard leading Dem Melina Kennedy 44-33. (That's a strangely high number of undecideds for a race that's only a week away.)

OH SB5: Here's probably why organized labor put out that memo urging us not to get too complacent about the referendum against Ohio's anti-union laws (currently leading in the polls by wide margins). Greg Sargent is reporting that $2.2 million in advertising from various Republican groups (including David Williams' dad's Restoring America) has poured into Ohio for the final days of advertising. We aren't completely outgunned here, though, as he observes that pro-union forces have booked $1.8 million of their own air time.

Grab Bag:

Colorado: One result from Tuesday's election night that we neglected to mention earlier: There was a statewide referendum to increase sales and income taxes to better fund education, which failed by a wide 36-64 margin, winning in only three counties. While any tax hike via referendum is a tough sell, matters weren't helped in that most of the state's Democratic establishment didn't get on board with selling Proposition 103; Gov. John Hickenlooper, for instance, didn't endorse it. (And, yes, some states and localities had Election Day last Tuesday instead of next Tuesday... having Tuesday fall on Nov. 1 seems to confuse the issue from place to place, depending on local laws.)

Pennsylvania (PDF): Franklin & Marshall's new presidential toplines seem to be getting all the ink, with Barack Obama holding a decent lead over Mitt Romney (35-26) as well as the various Keystone (State) Kops (Herman Cain 38-24, Rick Santorum 38-25, and Rick Perry 40-20). (I'm still wondering how F&M always manages to get such high undecideds, compared with other pollsters... do they actively dissuade leaners, instead of pushing them?) But there are also some downballot approvals: Bob Casey Jr., up in 2012, is at 5 excellent/33 good/38 fair/9 poor. Other Sen. Pat Toomey is at 3/29/40/11, while Gov. Tom Corbett is at 5/33/43/11.

Redistricting Roundup:

OH Redistricting: We're going to have to wait a little longer to see what happens with the redistricting vote in Ohio's state House, where the GOP is trying to get black Democrats to go along with the map to get it over a referendum-proof two-thirds vote. Thanks to a procedural vote yesterday that failed (they failed to expedite House rules to allow an immediate vote on the map, getting only 58 of the 66 they needed), it sounds like it has to go through the full committee process instead next week. Maybe, as our astute commenters are pointing out, based on leaked copies of the newest map (PDF), the few changes that were made weren't adequate enough to get black caucus members to jump ship.

Originally posted to Daily Kos Elections on Fri Nov 04, 2011 at 05:00 AM PDT.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

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Comment Preferences

  •  U.S. Added 80,000 Jobs in October (6+ / 0-)

    U.S. Added 80,000 Jobs in October; Unemployment Rate Dips to 9%

    Not bad. (not great but not bad either)

    •  Painful (8+ / 0-)

      But no sign of double-dip. Particularly when you consider that "change in total nonfarm payroll employment for August was revised from +57,000 to +104,000, and the change for September was revised from +103,000 to +158,000."

      And there was all that focus on "zero" jobs in August. Farcical.

      “I am a man of fixed and unbending principles, the first of which is to be flexible at all times.” Everett Dirksen (R-IL)

      by conspiracy on Fri Nov 04, 2011 at 05:42:29 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  more good news about the report (8+ / 0-)

        according to bonddad's blog: The labor force increased so the drop in unemployment rate wasnt from people stopping their search for a job.

        The revisions to Aug and Sept are encouraging. If we see something like that for Oct, it will be a pretty decent report, although it's not bad as is. But I agree, little of the recent data has been consistent with a double dip, despite all the fears.

        •  Anything under triple digits is disappointing (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Setsuna Mudo, MichaelNY

          Though I guess private companies creating 104,000 new jobs is a little better.

          “I am a man of fixed and unbending principles, the first of which is to be flexible at all times.” Everett Dirksen (R-IL)

          by conspiracy on Fri Nov 04, 2011 at 07:02:17 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  You're wrong to be disappointed (9+ / 0-)

            The upward revisions for preceding months are a very big deal.

            Imagine if those didn't happen, but Oct job growth was 182K?  You'd be happy then.  But the numbers released today are exactly the same result.

            The unemployment rate dropping for real, which it did, is a good sign.

            As is the trend in weekly initial unemployment claims, down under 400K for last week.  It's several weeks in a row of modest declines in that measure.

            Nothing dramatic, no, but this is all good news, good enough to crush the double-dip meme.  And crushing that meme eases consumer and employer fear, which in turn encourages more spending over time.

            Yes all this can get crushed in November, but  take the data for what it's worth, and what it's worth is quite a bit to be happy about.

            43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

            by DCCyclone on Fri Nov 04, 2011 at 08:07:38 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

      •  Those upward revisions (8+ / 0-)

        Are actually very strong.  157k for one month, if we're over 150k consistently you're going to start to see a lot of attitudes on the economy become much friendlier.  

        80k I think is a bit on the weak side, but still not terrible.  November and December should be stronger months thanks to seasonal hiring.  If either month makes a push toward the 200k mark then we're really in good shape.

        •  Why even look at 80K? (7+ / 0-)

          The revisions are abotu 50% in recent months, so it could be 120K in reality.  The revisions get buried in the story.  Things are improving and I think retail sales will again surprise to the positive this holiday season.  Some of the old ideas in retailing being undertaken by new firms (its become a trend this year that established retailers will open extra locations due to cheap real estate in failing malls) are sure to give some minor spurts to hiring, if only temporary.

          •  I guess this is the problem (8+ / 0-)

            We get a big build up every month and the focus gets stuck on one headline number and doesn't budge. "Zero" jobs in August was actually 104,000 but most people will never hear that or understand it. Still, public perception is largely driven by their own experience not by the employment rate and jobs reports.

            “I am a man of fixed and unbending principles, the first of which is to be flexible at all times.” Everett Dirksen (R-IL)

            by conspiracy on Fri Nov 04, 2011 at 06:59:58 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  THIS^ (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              Setsuna Mudo, MichaelNY

              "Still, public perception is largely driven by their own experience not by the employment rate and jobs reports."

              This couldn't be more true.  

            •  Up to a point, yes, but when the trend is (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              clear, it could give people hope. If we are adding jobs in the 200,000 range consistently, it still won't be good enough overall, but it suffices to the point where it should make people think this month could be their month, that they could get a job sooner rather than later. In the end, this brings Obama that much closer to being a lock for reelection.

        •  seasonal adjustment (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          Hiring always picks up in November and December, but the seasonal adjustment they use filters that out. If retailers are expecting a better than normal holiday season and hire more seasonal workers than usual, that will show up as an increase in jobs. If they hire the same number they usually do, it won't.

          SSP poster. 42, CA-5, -0.25/-3.90

          by sacman701 on Fri Nov 04, 2011 at 08:07:17 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  Just got an e-mail from Joe Sestak. Part of it is: (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY
    What’s next?  I will continue to discuss and speak out on the issues that confront us, building upon efforts of the past year.  Just some of them are:

    Pushing the issues, talking about everything from the economy and small business to defense and foreign policy
    Education visits – elementary through college – and projects for at-risk youth
    Chambers of Commerce and businesses and workforce training efforts
    Forums on energy and the environment, including on the Marcellus Shale, and health care reform
    And veterans…before speaking this Veterans Day in Johnstown, PA, I will visit a maximum security prison as I did last year to also thank our veterans there; how well we work to prevent more from incarceration or homelessness with proper treatment and assistance also remains my focus
    Where will this lead?  I have been fortunate to have the love of a wonderful wife, Susan, who blessed me this past year with time to be at home with my daughter, Alex, now ten and going on twenty-two!  In the months to come I will begin to find a way to serve again – in what form I don’t yet know. But I do know that I owe you for giving me and my family the opportunity to earn your trust.  I will not let you down in determining how I will now keep it.

    Hmm. Perhaps a run for governor or House of Representatives?

    •  Sestak (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Setsuna Mudo, bythesea, TofG

      My saddest race of 2010, thought he had it.  But Sestak had a chance to run statewide and proved he couldn't move the needle as much is needed in Philly proper.  I'd think that someone deeper in Philly (Congressman Allison Schwartz, Mayor Nutter, AG Pat Murphy (if he wins)) would be my preferred candidates.  

      I'd like to see Sestak back in the house, or appointed to something dealing with the VA or another veterans group, either at the state level or national.

      •  By move the needle (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Setsuna Mudo, itskevin, TofG, MichaelNY

        I assume you mean juice turnout. Is that really his fault, though? Aren't the party bosses supposed to be handling that?

        21, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

        by sapelcovits on Fri Nov 04, 2011 at 06:27:53 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Yes, but its not easy (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          TofG, MichaelNY

          Sestak's campaign in Philly wasn't really spectacular.  He's not like Casey in that he can minimize losses in Western PA and not need to max turnout in Philly to win (though he does well enough).  Sestak needed some great numbers in Philly to win, he was going to get hammered in rural areas.  

          To me his campaign seemed to lacking a physical presence down here.  None of his background/positions has a particularly high natural appeal here in Philly, so he needed to do more than say Obama or Casey or Rendell.  The 3 people I listed start of as better candidates for Philly and seemingly wouldn't do any worse than Sestak and Philly, and have potential upside.  Schwartz and Nutter already represent Philly (parts of it for Schwartz, and if Murphy is already elected statewide to me that still edges Sestak.

          I really like Sestak, I just think statewide he's not our best guy.  Would I vote for and support him of the other pass....oh heck yeah.  I just wouldn't expect him to win in 2014 running the same campaign, even if its a better environment for Dems.

      •  I remember this one very well (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        TofG, MichaelNY

        Sestak was winning over Toomey for most of the night before he was caught from behind late.  It was actually a mirror image of the race between Strickland and Kasich, because Cleveland reported first in that race, just like Philadelphia reported first in the Sestak race.  

        Those two races, along with the Florida Governor's race between Sink and Scott, were the ones that made me most unhappy on election night 2010.

        •  I remember declaring Sestak really had a shot (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          TofG, MichaelNY

          At about 10 p.m. or so (I think).  I never thought Sink had a chance and I jsut new Strickland would lose even though he outperformed hugely for such an environment.  Strickland's loss made me saddest of all because he campaigned well and it REALLY matter that he lost.

          As for Sestak, I'm still astonished at how the GOP did in Lancaster county.  Sure Sestak might have done better in Philly and pulled it out, but when Toomey won Lancaster 55K votes and Corbet by 53K votes, I was amazed.  (Reference points: McCain won Lancaster by 27K votes in 2008, Santorum won it by 25K votes, Bush won by 71K in 2004).  I believe 2010 was the first year anyone running for Guv or Senator got more than 100K votes in an off year election in the county.

      •  From my perspective, (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        bumiputera, TofG, MichaelNY

        Sestak's performance last year, in the worst cycle for Dems in I don't know how long, shows his strength as a statewide candidate, not his weakness. It was close - and in any other year, he would have won.

  •  Gallup (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Setsuna Mudo, bythesea, askew, MichaelNY

    Obama 47
    Romney 47

    Obama 49
    Perry 45

    Obama 48
    Cain 46

    56% of Republicans are either  extremely enthusiastic or very enthusiastic about voting compared to 48% of Democrats.

    http://www.gallup.com/...

    “I am a man of fixed and unbending principles, the first of which is to be flexible at all times.” Everett Dirksen (R-IL)

    by conspiracy on Fri Nov 04, 2011 at 06:24:49 AM PDT

    •  Not actually surprised... (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jj32, MichaelNY

      The Republicans are in the midst of a primary season that's been sucking up most of the media exposure. Let's see how that enthusiasm works out when Romney or insert alternative wins the nomination and Obama's campaign kicks into overdrive. These swing states are also early primary states...of course the electorate is going to skew more excited on the Republican side.

      Gallup could do us a favor and poll the states individually to see where both sides really stand. I bet Obama has the edge in pretty much all of the mountain West, is tied or leading in PA, WI, OH, MI, and is tied or behind in VA, NC, FL, NH. Instead, they group all of these "swing" states together to come up with this fun "Obama is tied" headline - which is going to get more attention than - "Obama leads or is tied to Republicans in most swing states" - which according to state level polls I've seen, is more accurate.

      •  The gap was 27 points on a similar measure in Sept (5+ / 0-)

        8 points seems manageable considering we are bang in the middle of their primary season. I'm more interested in Gallup finding both Perry and Cain closer than everybody else. Indeed, often the case that their numbers show little deviation between the different candidates.

        “I am a man of fixed and unbending principles, the first of which is to be flexible at all times.” Everett Dirksen (R-IL)

        by conspiracy on Fri Nov 04, 2011 at 07:27:10 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Agreed (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          Plus don't Democrats have a registration advantage over Republicans in most of these states? If we can tie enthusiasm and bring indies back to a more equal footing with Democrats we should be in good shape to keep most of these states in our column.

        •  The Cain numbers betray a polling fiction (5+ / 0-)

          Cain running so close to Obama just demonstrates how little attention voters are giving to the Republican choices.  Were Cain to shock the world and stumble into the nomination, Obama would crush him by double digits.  Cain's fundamentals, both in his biography and in his resume, are disastrous in everything voters care about.  But all voters really know right now is that he's a candidate in the news who is polling well lately, so they assume, for purposes of impulsively answering telephone survey questions a year before the election, that there must be something to like.

          On voter enthusiasm, PPP's weekly track consistently shows Dems running about even with Republicans, and black voters remaining overwhelmingly more interested than anyone else.  I actually don't trust an enthusiasm measure that fails to show black voters more interested than whites...such a polling failures misses the commitment of black Americans, and to a lesser but still real extent to other people of color, to the first black President who also shares their/our politics.

          43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Fri Nov 04, 2011 at 08:20:23 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  The reality of "enthusiasm" next year... (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          itskevin, MichaelNY

          ...is going to be a closing of any polling gap if one actually has existed, and the lack of any real-life manifestation of any such gap.

          Obama and allies will end up with more money than the GOP nominee and allies.  That is a given.

          The Republicans are not going to have any more volunteers than Obama.  Obama still has a supermassive fan base who will work for him, and the GOP will have either Romney who is a poor man's McCain in ability to get people to help him, or someone worse whose weaker prospects and more extreme ideology will reduce volunteer interest.

          And in turnout, our people always show up for Presidentials, and moreso for Obama than for other Democrats.  The only area where I can see a potential turnout problem for us is with younger whites.  They are the most elastic, the least committed, and require the hardest work to get interested in voting again this time.

          43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Fri Nov 04, 2011 at 08:25:41 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  What was it like in 2008? (0+ / 0-)
      •  And it's where the votes are (by state). Just (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        check a diary elsewhere about Romney now coming out for total non-abortion, including rape or incest? (and by implication, even birth control).

        That will abort his chances in many of the key states up for grabs. Yeah, his margins would shoot up in Kansas, Mississippi, etc., but, as Dick Cheney would say:

        http://youtu.be/...

    •  NPV numbers are worthless. (0+ / 0-)

      We don't have a NPV system.

      But nobody's buying flowers from the flower lady.

      by Rich in PA on Fri Nov 04, 2011 at 07:30:34 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Thanks btw (5+ / 0-)

    Thank you for going through all these races and compiling all this for us.  I know you might enjoy it, but I certainly wouldn't, so I greatly appreciate you doing this service for all of us.    

    "You're not stuck in traffic, you are traffic."

    by nominalize on Fri Nov 04, 2011 at 07:22:29 AM PDT

  •  PA-04 conservation ads against Altmire (5+ / 0-)

    I would bet that this is a strategic ploy of the best/worst sort: those two conservation groups are going to run ads against Republican candidates in 99% of cases, and they are trying to shield themselves against charges of purely partisan advocacy.  This came up last year when they ran something against Sherrod Brown.  My guess is that they're choosing to make these anti-D ad buys in districts/states where they are sure it will make no difference, and the more money the better because it lends credibility (at least viz. really naive people) to the notion that they don't favor one party over the other.

    But nobody's buying flowers from the flower lady.

    by Rich in PA on Fri Nov 04, 2011 at 07:29:20 AM PDT

  •  We are trying to prevent a republican takeover... (8+ / 0-)

    of the Iowa Senate on Tuesday.

    With a Republican controlled House and Republican Governor, the uber conservatives were salivating at the thought of pushing their anti-gay marriage agenda and actually winning.

    http://www.blogforiowa.com/...

    Liz Mathis needs to win this race to prevent it. All hands are on deck this weekend to get out the vote for her.

  •  A lot of the talk in Ohio (6+ / 0-)

    about a possible "deal" between the Black Legislative Caucus and the Republicans on the congressional map is Republican spin. It's pretty clear they OBLC is not going to go all Kucinich on us and throw Democrats overboard to keep their own hides intact, with drastically shrunken power and influence. Not happening. Get in touch with the Ohio Democratic Party about a petition to repeal the map.

    Take the "Can't(or)" out of Congress. Support E. Wayne Powell in Va-07. http://www.ewaynepowell.com/

    by anastasia p on Fri Nov 04, 2011 at 07:38:14 AM PDT

    •  Sandra Williams would have made the deal... (0+ / 0-)

      ....in a second.  In the caucus meeting, she voted for the crappy deal.  She is something else.  She screwed over a few other LBC members in legislative redistricting, too, last month, which is probably why she's lost so much influence.  She's a cancer in the party and she needs to go!

      GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

      by LordMike on Fri Nov 04, 2011 at 11:13:22 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  In Colorado (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    it didn't help that our Governor is a pro business shill.  It also didn't help that the tax referendum was regressive hike in sales taxes, and that our income tax here is a flat tax, so that everyone's taxes would have gone up.  If the thing had been a hike on millionaires taxes, it probably would have passed with flying colors.  They thought they'd get around that by tying the new taxes directly to school funding.  A lot of our school board races were funded be out of state CEO's ...  And the tea party won more seats on school boards..

  •  funny stuff re. Kuykendall in CA-47 ... (9+ / 0-)

    from his website, in "About the District":

    " ... The district is home to independent voters who vote their conscience, not a political party. In 2008, John McCain won here ..."

    http://www.stevekuykendall.com/...

    Obama beat McCain in the new CA-47 by almost 20 points, so it's kind of pathetic Kuykendall has no clue re. political leanings of district he's running in.

  •  Ben Cardin is awesome (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    DCCyclone, Setsuna Mudo

    One of my favorite photos from after the 2006 elections is of him and Barbara Mikulski, looking like the Campbell Soup twins.  

  •  FL-14 (0+ / 0-)

    With Republicans pulling every dirty trick in the book, how about a simple change to the election laws. Require candidates to run with their real name - no nick names. No Jebs, and no Connie Mack. His real name is Cornelius McGillicuddy. Put that on your campaign info and see how it sticks. It's a very simple idea that should make ample sense. How can you run for office on a madeup name?

  •  AZ-09: He was also the Republican mayor (3+ / 0-)

    of Tempe. He only had a conversion in 2008.

    20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

    by ndrwmls10 on Fri Nov 04, 2011 at 08:14:09 AM PDT

    •  Would he run as an R or as an economically (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      conservative D?

      Two other thoughts:

      1.  He really should have been the Commerce secretary if they were thinking of giving it to Gregg.
      2.  With the redistricting drama couldn't AZ-9 end up being Schweikert's district?

      Herman Cain: The only Republican ever screwed over by the NRA.

      by AZphilosopher on Fri Nov 04, 2011 at 08:59:21 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I doubt Schweikert's house (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        will end up in the same district as Tempe regardless.

        I changed by not changing at all, small town predicts my fate, perhaps that's what no one wants to see. -6.38, -4.15

        by James Allen on Fri Nov 04, 2011 at 09:09:27 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  But an R friendly district could stretch from (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          Schweikert's house in Scottsdale to some parts of Tempe to LD 18.  Try Apache junction, Mesa, snaking down Rio Salado to Rural,  up Rural to Scottsdale (the city) until you hit Schweikert's house add as much of Pinal  County as you need besides AJ.

          R's aren't going to want incumbent on incumbent  violence in the House with McCain getting old.  If the impeachment stands, they are going to get their Janmander.

          Herman Cain: The only Republican ever screwed over by the NRA.

          by AZphilosopher on Fri Nov 04, 2011 at 10:14:58 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  What do you mean? (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            PoliSci experts say this will most likely go to the 9th Circuit Court of Appeals, one of the most liberal circuit courts (in a good way).

            'An eye for an eye makes the whole world blind.' -Mahatma Gandhi

            by KingofSpades on Fri Nov 04, 2011 at 10:17:03 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Note, I said "if the impeachment stands". (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              I think either the 9th circuit will punt on the AZ impeachment issue or it will land at SCOTUS' desk and they'll punt on it and say "Arizona courts have to handle it".  There's no US constitutional issue with the impeachment unless you want to do some sort of weird Bush v. Gore justified 14th amendment dealy-bob.

              There is enough law to object to specific redistricting maps.  Probably there will be 3 to 4 attempts at Janmandering before one could pass muster.

              I'm sorry, I'm the natural pessimist here.

              Herman Cain: The only Republican ever screwed over by the NRA.

              by AZphilosopher on Fri Nov 04, 2011 at 10:43:34 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

          •  Perhaps but Fountain Hills to Tempe (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            is an ugly district in terms of compactness.

            I changed by not changing at all, small town predicts my fate, perhaps that's what no one wants to see. -6.38, -4.15

            by James Allen on Fri Nov 04, 2011 at 10:44:04 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  AZ5 (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              James Allen, MichaelNY

              That's what the current AZ5 is now. The proposed AZ9 that Brewer went berserk over is actually a more compact, coherent district of older suburban areas.

              SSP poster. 42, CA-5, -0.25/-3.90

              by sacman701 on Fri Nov 04, 2011 at 11:22:47 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  Right but I'm saying a preferred Republican (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY

                version would be a gerrymander that
                1| separates the 5th from the 9th with the 9th going Southeast
                2| mantains Quayle's district
                3| Has the 9th including Schweikert's house (which IIRC is in Scottsdale)

                All of these things would do the opposite of what the commission is trying to do in the East Valley.  This would also make the East Valley a confusing mess in terms of who represents what.

                Also in the dream Republican map, Grijalva would absorb the Democratic parts of Giffords' district but that would probably run into Constitutional problems.

                Herman Cain: The only Republican ever screwed over by the NRA.

                by AZphilosopher on Fri Nov 04, 2011 at 11:44:28 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

              •  yeah, it's a funky looking district as it is. (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY

                I changed by not changing at all, small town predicts my fate, perhaps that's what no one wants to see. -6.38, -4.15

                by James Allen on Fri Nov 04, 2011 at 12:21:35 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

          •  Pretty sure Schweikert lives in Fountain Hills? (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            21, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

            by sapelcovits on Fri Nov 04, 2011 at 11:01:21 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

      •  I am curious about this fellow (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        If he is carrying the banner for Team Blue, I am willing to listen to what he has to say.

      •  assuming Judd Gregg had accepted (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        jncca, MichaelNY

        it would have been better as he would have been replaced in the Senate by the presumably more moderate Bonnie Newman.

        21, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

        by sapelcovits on Fri Nov 04, 2011 at 11:01:43 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I was so pissed that Senate Republicans (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          flipped a bitch about that. granted, Obama shouldn't have floated Gregg in the first place if he didn't believe Commerce should exist in the first place. But if he did, Lynch should have been able to appoint anyone he wanted, pursuant to NH law.

          23, Solid Liberal Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut

          by HoosierD42 on Fri Nov 04, 2011 at 11:33:32 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  I could never figure out why he was a Republican (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      Since I do a fair bit of fundraising for the SF AIDS Foundation (see my sig line), I have interacted with Neil Giuliano personally. Nice guy actually (even if he did used to be a Republican).

      Frankly I hope he doesn't decide to run, mainly because it would make the job of the SF AIDS Foundation more difficult. The Foundation had the same CEO for many years and then another for about five years. Neil's been in the position for less than a year. Stability is very important for a non-profit. (Look what's happening to EQCA lately.) I'd sooner he stick around and follow through on the activities he's initiated than jump ship and make the Foundation once again have to devote energy and resources finding someone else to run it.

  •  Super-committee (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    I don't know if this is good or bad.

    http://thehill.com/...

    Once in a while it would be nice if people just did the right thing for the right reasons. But whatever happens, the media will likely sell it as "bad news for Barack Obama."

    “I am a man of fixed and unbending principles, the first of which is to be flexible at all times.” Everett Dirksen (R-IL)

    by conspiracy on Fri Nov 04, 2011 at 08:17:17 AM PDT

    •  Agree (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      I'm in the minority here, in that I think a big deal would be good for Obama. But the media will portray it as bad either way. No way will they give Obama a "win" heading into an election year.

      I do feel like it's too late to actually get a big deal out of the super committee.

    •  Oh, and I found this part hilarious (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      DCCyclone, MichaelNY
      A $4 trillion deal has gained more popularity in the Senate GOP conference this week as lawmakers have become convinced that Obama wants the deficit-reduction supercommittee to fail.

      This really fits with the notion that GOP will do the opposite of whatever Obama wants. Just a few months ago, he wanted this kind of deal, but they said no.

  •  So now State Reps. Forbes and Sandra Williams (0+ / 0-)

    are basically afloat at sea with each other?

    'An eye for an eye makes the whole world blind.' -Mahatma Gandhi

    by KingofSpades on Fri Nov 04, 2011 at 08:25:57 AM PDT

  •  The DCCC is targeting 25 Republicans (6+ / 0-)

    with radio ads.

    http://www.politico.com/...

    20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

    by ndrwmls10 on Fri Nov 04, 2011 at 08:37:08 AM PDT

    •  Ads this far out (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      It just seems to me like most laymen are not paying attention to politics at this point. But at the same time, setting the narrative early is important. So I have mixed feelings about this move. That list is also a bit odd. Some of those Republicans are not going to be in a whole lot of electoral trouble, some are probably going to lose regardless, and others are still pending new districts.

      •  They are playing smart, period (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Setsuna Mudo, LordMike, MichaelNY

        As you admit, setting the narrative matters.  It really is a permanent campaign.

        And radio ads are cheap.

        Make the case consistently over time, the message will sink in.  I don't think in this day and age you can win by waiting until a few months out, except in a wave election where you're happily adding targets in the final weeks.

        43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Fri Nov 04, 2011 at 08:49:01 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Generally that target list makes sense (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        Mostly new members or flukish winners from marginal districts, along with a few veterans who were shellacked by redistricting.

        I'm not sure if Crawford is really vulnerable in Arkansas (if so it would probably only be to a conservaDem) and Rivera of Florida may be as likely to be taken out in a primary as in the general (redistricting pending.)  Also unclear just how vulnerable Noem is if Herseth-Sandlin doesn't run again.  Still this looks like at least a good starting point for ad messaging, though of course a larger playing field will be needed to retake the House.

      •  These all seem to be possible losers to me (0+ / 0-)

        Which incumbents from this list would you be truly shocked if they lose?

        Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

        by MichaelNY on Fri Nov 04, 2011 at 02:34:06 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Good. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      Frankly, I wish we did more radio ads.

      Yami Yugi: Wait a minute! Did you just summon a bunch of monsters in one turn? Seto Kaiba: Yeah. So? Yami: That's against the rules, isn't it? Kaiba: Screw the rules, I have money! — Episode 1, Yu-Gi-Oh! The Abridged Series

      by Setsuna Mudo on Fri Nov 04, 2011 at 11:46:31 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  AZ-08 (13+ / 0-)

    Giffords is running! AP Exclusive: Giffords vows in her new book to return to Congress and describes being shot

  •  NC gov PPP (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    They have McCrory with a 9 point lead this month. And he has a 18 point lead with Indies now.  Also, the marriage amendment looks like it'll pass with a 59/35 margin this month.

     http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/...

    20, Male. DKE! “Music speaks what cannot be expressed, soothes the mind and gives it rest, heals the heart and makes it whole, flows from heaven to the soul.” anonymous

    by aggou on Fri Nov 04, 2011 at 08:52:20 AM PDT

  •  Woah, big change in McConnell agenda?! (11+ / 0-)

    The Hill:  http://thehill.com/...

    The short of it:  McConnell now is terrified of Obama running against a do-nothing Congress, fears it just might work, so now wants a Grand Bargain, including a willingness to surrender on taxes, in the supercommittee to blunt the "do-nothing Congress" attack.

    I'm skeptical anything will ultimately come of this, but if it does, Obama is a genius and McConnell a chump on multiple levels.

    First, Obama's strategy will have worked to change Republican behavior, against all odds, all evidence, and all commentators' opinion.  He will get credit for that.

    Second, Obama will get credit for the Grand Bargain itself.  This really undercuts the linked story's ignorant notion that it will "derail" Obama's reelection strategy--although in all fairness, that might have really just been the author relaying Senate Republican thinking.

    That brings up my third point, that McConnell would be a chump.  While Obama running against a do-nothing Congress is effective and can neutralize any failure the public otherwise might want to pin on him, the fact is actually accomplishing something significant--health care having been the one big exception--helps Obama.

    Let me emphasize the Hill GOP have been such craven, ill-willed, faithless actors that I'm not counting on this actually happening based on one news report, even a credible one.

    But I don't doubt the reporting is solid, that a change of thinking really has taken place this week, and it's at least possible a door has been opened to seriously consider something.

    Obama will have, perhaps unwittingly, created a win-win situation for himself heading into the election.  And that's good for all of us.

    One more thing:  a Grand Bargain doesn't prevent Obama from effectively attacking the GOP on jobs.  He still can have Reid continue pushing elements of the jobs bill and attack GOP intransigence.  He still can stump on Republicans caring nothing about unemployment.  It's a separate issue, so he can have it both ways, taking credit for a Grand Bargain and still attacking a do-nothing Congress.  This is yet another reason McConnell is a chump if he agrees to this.

    I hope McConnell does, indeed, do this.

    43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

    by DCCyclone on Fri Nov 04, 2011 at 09:00:38 AM PDT

    •  Haven't read the story yet, (5+ / 0-)

      but it's also possible the GOP is just making noises about its willingness to make a big deal knowing full well that no such deal will happen. That way, they can try to immunize themselves, if only slightly, from Obama's campaign against a Do-Nothing Congress next year.

    •  This line (7+ / 0-)

      is kinda funny:

      A $4 trillion deal has gained more popularity in the Senate GOP conference this week as lawmakers have become convinced that Obama wants the deficit-reduction supercommittee to fail.

      The idea that Obama would want the committee to fail is laughable. The man got raked over the coals from all sides this past summer for holding out hope for a big deal through the very last hour. And he's not one to just want to do something to get credit for it. He's a big picture guy.

      Sure, his reelection team would have to recalibrate, but I think it's a change they'd relish.

      Having said that, if Republicans need to think Obama's against a deal for a deal to actually happen, I hope they keep deluding themselves!

    •  interesting (5+ / 0-)

      McConnell always does what he thinks will help his party the most in the next election, so it's significant that he now appears to think they'll be best off cooperating on at least some things. In the past he's been an obstructionist from the word go and he appears to think that straight-up obstructionism won't work anymore. A promise of cooperation followed by a return to obstructionism would probably make him look even worse, so I suspect this isn't just a head fake.

      SSP poster. 42, CA-5, -0.25/-3.90

      by sacman701 on Fri Nov 04, 2011 at 09:25:02 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Steve Israel says Arizona voters (9+ / 0-)

    should consider impeaching Brewer. He also said the DCCC supports the Ohio redistricting petition and he believes Heath Shuler will run for reelection.

    20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

    by ndrwmls10 on Fri Nov 04, 2011 at 09:21:15 AM PDT

  •  CT-Gov (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    My sister and her family are still without power in northern Fairfield County from the snowstorm some time ago.  Indeed, there are outages across the state:

    http://outage.cl-p.com/...
    http://www.cl-p.com/...

    I don't know if there's anything anyone could have done differently, but I have to wonder if this could hurt Malloy.  Isn't the biggest cliche in gubernatorial/mayoral politics to make sure you clean up after a snowstorm?  I had thought some CT governor had lost as a result, but perhaps I was thinking of how Grasso was thought to have done it well:

    http://en.wikipedia.org/...

    Or maybe how Jane Byrne became Mayor of Chicago.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/...

    26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)

    by Xenocrypt on Fri Nov 04, 2011 at 09:34:04 AM PDT

  •  Melina Kennedy v. Greg Ballard (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Setsuna Mudo, MichaelNY

    The issue is that Ballard isn't particularly onerous for most folks, is a bit of a new player and hasn't completely screwed up anything (yet).  

    Kennedy has done everything "by the book" Democratic Party wise in a city that can/will go Democratic if the base is ever even slightly motivated.  However, that is exactly what is wrong with her.

    She does not inspire, she's middling personality-wise and only appears skilled next to Greg Ballard who certainly is no speech-maker.  

    Neither of these candidates are motivating people to go out and vote and neither really inspires confidence on their own.

    Not to mention that I think Kennedy will face a particular issue that certainly hits women harder in some respects.  She's reasonably young and attractive and "looks young" which honestly, just does no favors w/ the entrenched voters.  

    Voters want experience.  And in the world where a University of Phoenix degree gets slapped on resumes all over the place and faked up work experience makes everyone dubious of any claims of work, it comes down to a chunk of the electorate staring at the candidate and wondering if they can "see them" as a leader.  Mike Pence is a nutjob and serves as a US Rep for Indiana primarily because he's prematurely grey.  

    I fear that despite that Melina Kennedy has everything going for her situationally, and might do a decent job as mayor, she's just not a very good candidate and has run a fairly bland campaign.

    •  I don't know how often (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      an incumbent Mayor or similar figure loses re-election on purely or largely partisan grounds.  In fact, I can't think of an example offhand--Bloomberg was re-elected, so was Riordan, so was Sanders (San Diego).  Can anyone think of one?  

      26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)

      by Xenocrypt on Fri Nov 04, 2011 at 09:45:36 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  AZ gov: we don't need yur stinkin' democracy (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    TofG

    how do you unseat this gang of  thugs? hopefully one of them, Pearce, will be fired, voted out of office, next week, but
    that  venomous vendetta addict Brewer? Evidently the people's  voice or law of the land matter not one bit. The only  bright side to this is i think it fuels the anger at the  amazing bully machine that is the AZ GOP. so, the intensity factor of the opposition will spike, and it will include not only Dems, but increasing number of indys, and even some Repubs who are increasingly disgusted with this  continued flagrant abuse of power. the fact that Brewer haughtily did this from her NYC booksigning and public appearance gig doesn't sit well with a lot of folks either. nor does the fact that this is wasting taxpayers $$$ and time.
    then again, the GOP strategy here is to confuse  and  hamstring the election process as much as possible. that and do whatever it takes to grab and hold  all districts without a fair vote. what a bunch of  freaking  bully/cowards.

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