• AZ Redistricting: With Gov. Jan Brewer having successfully orchestrated the impeachment by the GOP-controlled state Senate of the Independent Redistricting Commission's pivotal independent member, Colleen Mathis, the big question now is "What next?" And nobody seems to know what's next. The authors of the 2000 ballot measure that created the IRC, including the Republican ones, all blasted the power grab, but they, of course, have no authority at this point. The IRC's attorney says they still consider Mathis the chairwoman, but an Arizona Supreme Court hearing on the matter won't be held until later in the week. In the meantime, the IRC is continuing to work, although without a tie-breaking vote, meaning the commission is deadlocked between 2 Ds and 2Rs and nothing will happen for now. Eventually, the state Commission on Appellate Court Appointments will meet to pick a list of three registered independents, one of whom will be picked by the 4 remaining IRC members to join the team... at which point it's unclear whether the maps will be scrapped, modified, or what.
• MD-Sen: In case anyone had Maryland's junior senator, Democrat Ben Cardin, on a retirement watch list, you can take him off. He announced he'll be officially kicking off his re-election campaign over the weekend. Cardin hadn't done anything this cycle to imply retirement, though, other than the simple act of being 68.
• MO-Sen: Businessman/third wheel in GOP Senate primary John Brunner may not have any name rec, but he does have a lot of money. So, naturally, he's trying to solve the former with the latter, with a new TV ad salvo. No word on the size of the buy, and it's a pretty boilerplate speak-to-the-camera bio spot.
• MT-Sen, MT-Gov: Here's a poll of the Montana Senate race from a pollster we aren't very familiar with... but, on the other hand, they seem to see the race exactly how everyone else sees it, which is a tie. MSU-Billings finds 36.3% supporting Republican challenger Rep. Denny Rehberg, 35.5% supporting Dem incumbent Jon Tester, and 25% undecided. (As we are no lovers of significant digits, we'll just call that 36-36.) They also ran the Governor's race, but apparently just as a generic ballot, where the Republican leads the Democrat 33-31. (Based on the way the poll is written up, it sounds like they may actually have asked the Senate race in the same way, which makes no sense as the field is set.)
• ND-Sen: Former Democratic AG Heidi Heitkamp isn't even officially in the race yet (and it's not a done deal she ever will be), but the state GOP is already firing shots across her bow. They're running a full-page ad in the state's two major papers, using various damning quotes to convict her of the crime of (gasp) supporting Barack Obama in 2008. Anyway, that's probably a good sign, if the GOP is actually sweating this race a bit; even if the odds are somewhat against Heitkamp retaining Kent Conrad's seat, she's imposing enough that the GOP will need to put a lot of resources into the race that they can't deploy elsewhere.
• NY-Sen: Given that she won in 2010, you might have forgotten that Kirsten Gillibrand has to do it all over again in 2012—that race last year was a special election for the final two years of Hillary Clinton's term. She has no announced opponent, and it's unlikely the GOP will scrape up more than a sacrificial lamb here... but Marist (on behalf of NY1) finds Gillibrand still kind of unknown after three years on the job. On a generic re-elect question, she's at 39, with 22 against, and 39 unsure.
• FL-Gov: That Suffolk poll of Florida that's been getting attention for its various odds and ends (a plurality thinking that the GOP is intentionally tanking the economy; suspicion over Marco Rubio's story but also finding that he greatly enhances a Mitt Romney ticket's odds) also had some Rick Scott numbers buried at the end. Gov. Cueball's performance is viewed as 26 positive and 37 negative, and he still loses a rematch with Alex Sink, 37-36.
• WI-Gov, WI-LG: There's no two-fer for Dems in Wisconsin: Instead of being able to recall both Scott Walker and Lt. Gov. Rebecca Kleefisch at the same time, they'll have to collect separate petitions for each recall race. This is all according to an opinion from Republican Attorney General J.B. Van Hollen, who of course would prefer to make things more difficult for Dems, so this may get challenged in court. In Wisconsin, as you probably know, a recall election involves an actual opponent, so a successful recall of Walker would result in the immediate election of his Democratic opponent, rather than a scenario where Kleefisch takes over... so it's probably not a big deal if Dems don't bother pursuing Kleefisch separately.
• AZ-09: Here's a guy who might want to put things on hold while the redistricting situation in Arizona sorts itself out. Tempe's former mayor from 1994 to 2004, Neil Giuliano, is considering a run in the 9th District... which, on draft maps, was a swing district that a strong Democrat could win (and as major of a large suburb, he'd at least have name rec). At this point, though, who knows what the map will look like. Giuliano was former President of GLAAD and is currently CEO of the San Francisco AIDS Foundation, but still lives in Tempe.
• CA-32: Roll Call looks at David Dreier's dilemma; everything seems to be on hold for the California Republican while he waits on the outcome of a federal court suit against the new Congressional map passed by the state's independent commission. As for seeking reelection, he says "it depends on the lines;" in the meantime, even fundraising's on hold, as he raised only $44K last quarter. (He's highly unlikely to run in the Hispanic-majority 32nd, where his house is, but assuming the current map passes muster, he could run in the still Hispanic-majority but swingier 31st, or if Jerry Lewis decides to retire instead of run in the new 8th, carpetbag his way further north.) The article compares him to Rep. Gary Miller, also a likely redistricting casualty, but at least one who's actively engaging his race (against fellow GOPer Ed Royce) and threatening to bring some of his own large net worth into the race.
• CA-44: Democratic Rep. Laura Richardson, who's been pretty underwhelming from the start, is looking like one of the likeliest redistricting casualties (she faces both fellow Rep. Janice Hahn and Assemblyman Isadore Hall in her new district)... and her ethics woes aren't helping her case. In a sign that she might be facing some serious consequences when the Ethics Committee rules on her case, she said in a private letter earlier this week to the Committee that she'd accept minor sanctions over accusations that she had staffers on her congressional payroll do campaign activities. (That's the kind of thing you don't offer to do unless you're likely to face major sanctions instead.) The Committee's ruling could come very soon.
And here's a little more on Richardson's woes. You probably know that the Kinde Durkee saga (where a prominent Dem behind-the-scenes money-handler was actually embezzling from campaign accounts) snagged Dianne Feinstein, Susan Davis, and both Loretta and Linda Sanchez. Now it turns out that Richardson lost money too, although a smaller amount: $18K in Richardson campaign funds are currently frozen, and the Richardson camp isn't reporting any other losses because the campaign still hasn't "finished its financial review." More alarmingly, they're reporting $117K cash on hand... and a whopping $460K in debt before any Durkee-related writedown. Now that's a house in disarray.
• FL-14: We're already up to three Republicans fighting over the newly-open 14th, vacated mere days ago by Connie Mack IV for his yes-no-oh, OK, yes Senate run. We'd previously mentioned Chauncey Goss (the son of ex-Rep. Porter Goss) and Lee County Commissioner Tammy Hall, and now another filing has surfaced: state Rep. Gary Aubuchon, whom we mentioned as a possibility the other day.
• IL-10: This is a little surprising: if there was one person not currently in the Democratic field in the 10th who I'd expect to get in, it would be former state Rep. Julie Hamos... she sort of had right of first refusal after losing the 2010 primary to Dan Seals, and now it's a much friendlier seat for Dems after redistricting. However, on Thursday she endorsed Brad Schneider, the more centrist of the two Dems in the field so far (Ilya Sheyman is the other one). I'd still expect an elected Dem to get in this race; maybe others will jump now that Hamos has declined. (Time is running short, however, as petitions need to be submitted in early December.)
• MD-04: This'll be a very interesting primary to watch: Glenn Ivey, the former state's attorney for Prince George's County (the black-majority suburb east of Washington DC, where most of the 4th is located), officially kicked off a challenge to Rep. Donna Edwards (who herself got where she is through a successful netroots-backed primary challenge to Al Wynn). Ivey is better connected in Annapolis, where Edwards didn't make any new friends last month with her brief opposition to the new redistricting map. What may help Edwards here is that another possible entrant, Anne Arundel County Council member James Benoit, is also interested in the race, which could split any anti-Edwards vote.
• NV-01: Ex-Rep. Dina Titus (who got bounced out of NV-03 by GOPer Joe Heck in '10) was expected to make a comeback bid this year; the main question was where. On Thursday, she officially answered that: as expected, it'll be NV-01, the central Las Vegas district being vacated by Shelley Berkley (no surprise, since that's where her house is and it's a much bluer district than the 3rd). The tradeoff for a safer district in the general is that she'll have to get through a tough primary first, against state Sen. Ruben Kihuen. There had been some encouragement from some circles for her to run against Heck again, but most likely we'll have a strong candidate there too, in the form of another state legislator, Assemblyman John Oceguera.
• PA-04: Two environmental advocacy groups, the League of Conservation Voters and the National Resource Defense Council, are out with a pretty substantial ad buy against Democratic Rep. Jason Altmire ($350K). I've gotta wonder, though, whether it's a good investment dropping major cash on a Blue Dog in a smokestack-industry district where the charges aren't likely to resonate with his constituents, when there are faux-environmentalist Republicans in districts that are very receptive to environmental appeals who need softening up (cough, cough, Dave Reichert, cough...).
• RI-01: Former Gov. Don Carcieri is about as big a name as this very small state's very small Republican Party has, so it's worth noting that he's offered an endorsement in the GOP primary in the 1st. He backed the more moderate Brendan Doherty (former state police chief) over state Rep. (and '10 candidate) John Loughlin.
• WA-03: Vancouver-based Democratic state Sen. Craig Pridemore announced yesterday that he'll run for state Auditor (to replace retiring long-timer Brian Sonntag). I'm filing this under WA-03, though, because Pridemore ran for a while in the primary to succeed Brian Baird in 2010, eventually pulling out in the face of fellow Dem Denny Heck's megabucks... and he'd have been a fairly strong contender for another run at Jaime Herrera Beutler next year. Dems are still looking for a candidate in the 3rd, a swing district likely to get a little redder after redistricting.
• Indianapolis Mayor: Here's one more poll of one of next Tuesday's many mayoral races. An EPIC-MRA poll for WISH-TV finds incumbent Republican mayor Greg Ballard leading Dem Melina Kennedy 44-33. (That's a strangely high number of undecideds for a race that's only a week away.)
• OH SB5: Here's probably why organized labor put out that memo urging us not to get too complacent about the referendum against Ohio's anti-union laws (currently leading in the polls by wide margins). Greg Sargent is reporting that $2.2 million in advertising from various Republican groups (including David Williams' dad's Restoring America) has poured into Ohio for the final days of advertising. We aren't completely outgunned here, though, as he observes that pro-union forces have booked $1.8 million of their own air time.
• Colorado: One result from Tuesday's election night that we neglected to mention earlier: There was a statewide referendum to increase sales and income taxes to better fund education, which failed by a wide 36-64 margin, winning in only three counties. While any tax hike via referendum is a tough sell, matters weren't helped in that most of the state's Democratic establishment didn't get on board with selling Proposition 103; Gov. John Hickenlooper, for instance, didn't endorse it. (And, yes, some states and localities had Election Day last Tuesday instead of next Tuesday... having Tuesday fall on Nov. 1 seems to confuse the issue from place to place, depending on local laws.)
• Pennsylvania (PDF): Franklin & Marshall's new presidential toplines seem to be getting all the ink, with Barack Obama holding a decent lead over Mitt Romney (35-26) as well as the various Keystone (State) Kops (Herman Cain 38-24, Rick Santorum 38-25, and Rick Perry 40-20). (I'm still wondering how F&M always manages to get such high undecideds, compared with other pollsters... do they actively dissuade leaners, instead of pushing them?) But there are also some downballot approvals: Bob Casey Jr., up in 2012, is at 5 excellent/33 good/38 fair/9 poor. Other Sen. Pat Toomey is at 3/29/40/11, while Gov. Tom Corbett is at 5/33/43/11.
• OH Redistricting: We're going to have to wait a little longer to see what happens with the redistricting vote in Ohio's state House, where the GOP is trying to get black Democrats to go along with the map to get it over a referendum-proof two-thirds vote. Thanks to a procedural vote yesterday that failed (they failed to expedite House rules to allow an immediate vote on the map, getting only 58 of the 66 they needed), it sounds like it has to go through the full committee process instead next week. Maybe, as our astute commenters are pointing out, based on leaked copies of the newest map (PDF), the few changes that were made weren't adequate enough to get black caucus members to jump ship.