The republican homeland of Northwest Iowa is the south end of the Buffalo Ridge and the base for Congressman King, Michelle Bachmann's partner in craziness. So one year out, lets have a look at the republican candidates Iowa caucus campaigns and chances of winning. I'll have more coverage over the next few weeks over at Buffalo Ridge Blog.
I spent much of 2007 in northern Iowa campaigning for Barack Obama. By the end of summer the Obama campaign had staffed offices all across Iowa, even up in the red northwest corner of the state. Obama had staffed campaign offices in Sioux Falls, Spencer, Algona, as well as all over the rest of the state. I hauled an overstuffed pickup load of furniture down for the Spencer office, just in time for Obama's appearance. That was just the 2nd of a half dozen appearences Obama made that day, all over northwestern Iowa. By the time it was over, Obama had made at least one stop in every Iowa county, including red ones like Osceola where democratic caucus turnout for the whole county had trouble breaking one hundred. By this time, all those staffers from all those campaign offices had knocked on the doors of every democrat in Iowa. No wonder Obama won...
Well, we're but two months away from a cold and maybe snowy tuesday night in Iowa when the caucuses will be held, and the republican candidates don't appear to have opened any campaign offices beyond the suburbs of Des Moines. Appearances? Even in the Congressman King's republican homeland of northwest Iowa, I'd swear Obama made more appaearances in 2008 than all the republicans together. It takes a lot more organization then we've seen from the republicans so far to turn out caucus attendees. Back in 2008, after the Obama campaign had already doorknocked and phoned every democrat in Iowa multiple times, each of us staffers was assigned a precinct caucus for caucus day. I was assigned a rural/exurban township between Mason City and Clear Lake. I spent all day visiting and phoning my list of 20 odd potential caucus attendees. I cut deals, finding a baby sitter for a young mother so she could attend, then talking the baby sitter into attending too. At the caucus we we're outnumbered by both the Clinton and Edwards supporters, but I cut a deal with the Edwards folks to merge our caususes and split the two delegates between us , denying Hillary any delegates. We did that all over Iowa, and that's how Obama won.
I thus suspect whoever can develop a semblence of a field operation caucus day will win the Iowa caucusses. Conventional wisdom suggests this should be Bachmann, but I haven't seen massive numbers of her home school zombie followers turn out for her events. And from what I've seen of the home schoolers here on the Buffalo Ridge, they seem to be "stay at homes" for a lot more than school- to them the world beyond their homestead and maybe little town is a scary place that they're not likely to visit. Thus I don't expect we'll see a Bachmann uprising beyond the small towns of Congressman King's district, and a even a republican candidate needs to do well in the suburbs of Des Moine, Cedar Rapids, and Davenport to win.
Perry? Popular nowhere beyond the warmth of the lone star state, he's not much of a threat. Romney? More of a threat, but if he puts together a serious organization, even if clandistine, and loses it will be an embaressment. Santorum or the Newt? Well past their freshness date. Cue Ron Paul... ignored by the media, despite finishing a close second behind Bachmann in the straw poll after Michelle damn near gave every Iowan a free ticket and bus ride there. Last night Paul drew 2500 fervent young followers to pack the St.Cloud convention center, smack in the middle of Bachmann's district. Campaigning for the Minnesota caucuses? No, they'll probably be to late to matter... Paul was recruiting volunteers to go to Iowa.
So my bet is that Ron Paul will narrowly win the Iowa caucuses... But at this point in 2004 Dean was favored to win and in 2008 Clinton was favored to win Iowa. So all bets are off... Meanwhile, as the republican campaign circus stumbles on, Obama has campaign staffers all over Iowa and in Minnesota and both Dakotas as well!