This map started out as an exercise in trying to draw a district for Gretchen Whitmer (who is awesome, but the way) to run for congress in. I turned into an attempt to drawn a semi-clean statewide map. The map comes out to about 8-3-3, and no district has more than 2 split counties.
Detroit Closeup:
Details below the fold:
District 1 (Blue, Dan Benishek):
54.3% Obama, 44.0% McCain.
The UP district get a lot bluer, going from 48 to 54% Obama. It does it by dumping huge swaths or red rural Northeastern Michigan and picking up a lot of Democratic stuff along the lake Michigan coast, including Traverse City, Manistee, Ludington, and Muskegon. Benishek would have lost in 2010 under these lines.
District 2 (Green):
52% Obama, 46.3% McCain
This district doesn't really resemble any existing districts and has no incumbents, however, there's a good chance David Camp would run here. It contains parts of of the old 1st, 2nd, 4th, and 5th districts. It connects norther rural Michigan to Saginaw and Bay City. At only 52% Obama, this district undeniably leans Republican, however it is definitely winnable for a Democrat, especially since over half of Camp's constituents would be new.
District 3 (Purple, David Camp):
52.9% Obama, 45.4 % McCain
The core of this district is the same: Grand Rapids. However, instead of being attached to the Rabidly Republican remainder of Kent County, it goes further north for some more moderate turf. Justin Amash does not live here and would not want to run here. A Republican would probably be favored, but it would be very winnable for a Democrat. David Camp lives here and might run here, however, that's no given, as the 2nd is probably a better fit for him.
District 4 (red, Justin Amash, Bill Huizenga):
40.3% Obama, 58.0% McCain.
This is the Mother of all GOP vote sinks. It combines the blood red Grand Rapids suburbs and the blood red turf in Ottowa and Allegan counties. Both Bill Hulzega and Justin Amash live here, which would set up an entertaining primary.
District 5 (Yellow, Fred Upton):
55.0% Obama, 43.4% McCain.
Fred Upton's district gets a point more Democratic by picking up Calhoun County and Battle Creek. Upton's probably fine here, but if he retires or is primaried, the Democrat is probably slightly favored. Mark Schauer lives here now and could run here.
District 6 (Teal, Dale Kidlee, Mike Rogers):
57.0% Obama, 41.4% McCain.
This district is the successor to Dale Kidlee's district. Mike Rogers lives here and might run here, however, most of his old constituents are in the 7th. This district is still reasonably solidly Democratic, however, we might lose it with a bad candidate in a bad year. I'm actually not sure if I was too greedy in dropping the Obama percentage to 57 I actually even drew an alternate map in which this district had the city of Saginaw, the 2nd had Newago County, and the 3rd had Gratriot County. The result was that this district was 59% Obama, but our chances of picking up the 2nd and 3rd were reduced. I guess it's mostly a matter of how much risk you're willing to take.
District 7 (Grey):
57.4% Obama, 41.0% McCain.
This is the district that started it all. It's centered around Lansing, takes in Jackson, and would hopefully elect Gretchen Whitmer. It most closely resembles Mike Roger's old district, and he might run here, but would be the underdog.
District 8 (Slate Blue, Tim Walberg):
60.2% Obama, 38.2% McCain.
Now this is just delicious. Tim Walberg in a 60% Obama district. It's not really a question of wether he would lose so much as to whom.
District 9 (Cyan):
46.1% Obama, 52.0% McCain.
Cadince Miller's district drops it's Macomb county portions to mop up Tuscola and Lapeer counties, as well as the bad parts of Oakland County. The best part? She doesn't even live in the district anymore! This district, while not quite as Republican as my MI-04, is still a pretty brutal Republican vote sink.
District 10 (Pink, Gary Peters):
53.8% Obama, 44.7% McCain.
This is basically Gary Peter's old district, although it gets two points more Republican and is pretty evenly split. I think Peters would do pretty well here assuming we didn't have a repeat of 2010, though. Thad McCotter might run here as his old district got obliterated.
District 11 (Chartreuse, Sandy Levin, Cadince Miller):
57.9% Obama, 40.3% McCain.
Levin's district takes in a lot more Macomb county and gets a bit more Republican, but he should be fine.
District 12 (Cornflower Blue, Hansen Clarke):
79.5.0% Obama, 19.5% McCain. 50% Black VAP.
Clarke's district has to expand, so it snakes further south. It still satisfies VRA and is still overwhilming Dem.
District 13 (Salmon, John Conyers, Thad McCotter):
77.1% Obama, 21.8% 50% Black VAP.
Conyer's district had to be a bit more creative to avoid serious retrogression, going down to Romulus and into southern Oakland County. Hilariously, Thad McCotter lives here, but would probably not be stupid enough to run here. (On the other hand, he did run for president...)
District 14 (Olive, John Dingell):
59.0% Obama, 39.4% McCain.
Instead of going over to Ann Arbor, Dingell's district snakes around to southern oakland county. At 59% Obama, the Dean of the House should be fine.
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