(Crossposted from Buffalo Ridge Blog )
It's past time for anyone that's serious about running for federal office to have set up their committee, website, started activly fundraising and campaigning. January 1st resets the ticker for maximum individual campaign contributions, so a candidate has to have announced by now to haul in some 2011 donations before donors get distracted by Santa Claus and his retail friends competing demands for our dollars. So it's the right time for us to review just who all along the Buffalo Ridge has a viable campaign for the U.S. Senate or House.
This will be a tumultious election cycle- voter approval of even voter's own congress member is down to around 20%, and with redistricting even "incumbents" will find themselves running as unknowns in large parts of their new districts. So one would think a plephora of qualified and viable candidates would come forward to take advantage of this once a decade at most political opportunity.
Let's look at Minnesota first. Senator Amy Klobuchar looks set for an easy win against nothing but republican nobodies. Potential challenger and former senator Norm Coleman seems to have figured out that working for right wing special interest groups is more likely to pay for living in the (expensive) way he has become accustomed than working for us taxpayers. Thus it's doubtful if he'll join the race. Tim Pawlenty doesn't have much $$$ left after his failed presidential run and says he's not interested. That leaves Michelle Bachman, who depending on her campaigns "burn rate" is either broke or has several million $$$ left over that she could apply to a senate run, or maybe even running for reelection for her own senate seat. But she's created some question as to her residency, given that she's called herself an Iowan down there. Who knows, after she loses the caucuses she may settle in Waterloo and run there? By all odds, Amy has this race already won, but she'll campaign as hard as every anyways. So will the congressional races give us some fireworks? In Minnesota 1 republican Mike Parry has produced little enthusiam in his race against democratic incumbent Tim Walz, and while old school fundy republican Allen Quist threatens to run, he's well past his freshness date. Minnesota 7 looks like a rematch between "party of one" Democrat? Colin Peterson and republican flake with his own campaign bus Lee Byberg. The only possibility of some fireworks here might occur if redistricting puts Peterson and current Minnesota 8 congressman Chip Cravitz in the same district. However, Chip has residency problems too- his family has moved to the northeast and he's seldom seen in his own district.
On to Iowa, where beneath the noise of the republican caucus circus there's a serious battle in new Iowa 4. Redistricting has deprived Steve King of his republican homeland base, adding university town Ames and slightly left leaning Mason City to his district. Democrat Christie Vilsack, spouse of a former Iowa governor, has seized the opportunity and is running to take back western Iowa. The new district has a PVI of only a couple percentage points in the republican's favor, and Vilsack has a slight fundraising advantage. Look for this to become a top tier race for both parties.
South Dakota is becoming the land of disappointment for democrats this cycle. Despite incumbent republican Noem's barely winning the seat from Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin, and a statistical dead heat in a recent poll, Stephanie has shown no interest in a rematch. Noem has an over million dollar bankroll, and her only democratic opponents are Minnehaha County Commissioner Jeff Barth (44 Facebook friends and a website) and young Senator Johnson staffer Matt Vailek (no website, but 500+ FB friends)
North Dakota has potential for plenty of political entertainment, but so far there isn't much on the bill. Republican incumbent congressman Rick Berg is going after the open Senate seat, and nobody much from either party is running for the congressional seat he's abandoning or the senate seat. As the 2011 donation season winds down, the Heitkamps and other viable democratic candidates remain on the sidelines.
Conclusion: The voters are mad as hell, the district boundaries are morphing, and damn few candidates are arising to take advantage of the opportunity.