There are promising signs for retaining a Democratic Senate in Iowa. Polling information released on Sunday night from Public Policy Polling (PPP) shows that Democrat Liz Mathis leads Republican Cindy Golding 52-46. This seat is the only thing between total Republican control of the state and a slim Democratic majority in the state senate.
From Tom Jenson at PPP
The numbers suggest that Mathis is just a stronger candidate than Golding. Voters in the district are split right down the middle, 44/44, on whether they'd rather Democrats or Republicans had control of the State Senate. But Mathis is outrunning those numbers when it comes to how people are planning to vote on Tuesday. The big key for her is that she's taking 16% of the GOP vote from Golding, while losing only 9% of the Democratic vote. That helps her make up for a 50-45 deficit with independents.
This is definitely good news for a variety of reasons. House Republicans have been bringing up all kinds of nonsense bills this past year, only to have them blocked by the Democratic Senate. Holding this seat is also important for keeping gay marriage legal in Iowa. Republicans are itching to overturn the gay marriage ruling with a state referendum on the issue. Interestingly, voters in this district are not basing their vote on the gay marriage issue. Again, from Tom Jenson:
This election has been framed to some extent as a battle over gay marriage, but our poll suggests voters aren't seeing it that way. They're planning to vote for Mathis even as 46% of them say gay marriage should be illegal, compared to just 42% who think it should be legal. Although voters in the district may oppose gay marriage, only 11% say that issue is the most important factor guiding their vote compared to 86% who say it's something else. It's also worth noting that 66% of voters do support either gay marriage or civil unions with only 30% opposed to all legal recognition for same sex couples.
So what are they basing their vote on?
If this election's not hinging on gay marriage, then what is making the difference here? Voters may be sending a message to Governor Terry Branstad. His approval rating in the district is only 39% with 42% disapproving of him. This special election is seen in some quarters as the product of a power grab by Branstad and if Mathis wins it could be indicative of an electorate that doesn't want to enhance his power.
It's especially gratifying to hear Republican Governor Branstad admit likely defeat, since this was a power grab he engineered:
“I think it’s an uphill battle for the Republicans to win that seat,” Gov. Terry Branstad, a Republican, said Monday at his weekly news conference.
Without this seat, we know what the alternative reality is (think Wisconsin, Michigan, and Ohio). Thankfully, it's looking hopeful for Iowa.