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Leading Off:

VA-St. Sen.: Though the race in the pivotal 17th Senate District hasn't been officially called yet, things don't look good for Democrats. A canvas of provisional ballots yesterday turned Republican Bryce Reeves' 86-vote lead on election night into a 224-vote edge, and it's hard to see how Dem Sen. Edd Houck can come back from this. The canvas isn't yet complete (you can follow along here), and the Board of Elections won't certify results until Nov. 28, after which a recount can be sought, but there isn't any reason for optimism.

Assuming Houck loses, that would drop the chamber into a 20-20 tie—and the prospect has already turned Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling into a total rampaging dickface. He's insisting that Republican's won't—simply won't—participate in a power-sharing agreement, apparently based on the claim that he gets to cast the tie-breaking vote when the Senate organizes. Unfortunately, he has some precedent on his side:

The last time an election resulted in a 20-20 split was 1996. Then, Democrats intended to retain control by having Democratic Lt. Gov. Donald Beyer cast the deciding vote in their favor. The parties were forced to share power, apportioning committees evenly and having Democratic and GOP co-chairmen, after Sen. Virgil Goode, then a conservative Democrat, threatened to side with Republicans unless Democrats agreed to share power.

It's not clear whether the GOP will be able to ram legislation through committees if Bolling's vision comes to pass, but he does seem to think that the committee chairs will all be Republicans.

One point worth adding about this whole debacle that a few commentators, including our own jeffmd, have made is it was all avoidable. Why? The Democrats really screwed up in redistricting. Had they shifted just a tiny fraction more of Albermarle County into Edd Houck's 17th district from fellow Dem Sen. Creigh Deeds's neighboring 25th, we wouldn't even be having this conversation. Deeds won handily with 65% and could certainly have spared a friendly precinct or two.

Senate:

MA-Sen: Few details so far, but Karl Rove's American Crossroads will reportedly soon go up with TV ads attacking Democrat Elizabeth Warren in the Mass. Senate race. More as we learn it.

MI-Sen: This strikes me as good news… for Pete Hoekstra. (No, really.) Mike Huckabee's PAC just endorsed Gary Glenn, the head of the American Family Association of Michigan, whom I'd honestly forgotten was running for the GOP Senate nomination. I'd have figured Christian private schools entrepreneur Clark Durant would be the natural fit to hoover up the social-con vote, but if Glenn gets a little traction, that would allow the more business-con Hoekstra to benefit from any split to his (theological) right.

MN-Sen: SurveyUSA is out with what appears to be their first poll of the Minnesota Senate race this year, and as expected, it shows Dem Sen. Amy Klobuchar absolutely cruising. Click the link for our full post at Daily Kos Elections.

MS-Sen: Despite a huge win for the good guys on Initiative 26 yesterday, reality is reality in Mississippi, and GOP Sen. Roger Wicker looks set to cruise to re-election next year. PPP finds Wicker leading a variety of Democrats (none of whom have expressed any interest in running) by double digits, virtually unchanged from March.

OH-Sen: Yow. The 60 Plus Association, a conservative front group that's sort of a bizarro-world AARP, is going after Dem Sen. Sherrod Brown with a $750,000 ad buy. They trot out a creaky-looking Pat Boone to resurrect almost every debunked claim about last year's healthcare reform bill, and all but invoke "death panels." It'll make you feel like it's 2010 all over again. The ad itself is a minute long and throws in so many different arguments that I'm not sure how effective it is. I also wonder whether screaming about "$500 billion cut from Medicare!" and "rationing healthcare!" still has the salience it once did. Anyhow, watch for yourself:

UT-Sen: Democrat Pete Ashdown, founder of Internet service provider XMission, says he'll seek a rematch against Sen. Orrin Hatch. Ashdown ran in 2006 and took 31% of the vote.

WV-Sen: Dem Sen. Jay Rockefeller has been the subject of retirement rumors for some time, largely due to his age (he's 74), and also the possibility that he might face a stiff challenge from Rep. Shelley Moore Capito when he's next up for re-election in 2014. But he emails local commentator Hoppy Kercheval with a statement that suggests he's not ready to quit just yet:

"The 2014 election is still a good ways off, and we need to stay focused on the work rather than the politics, but let there be no doubt that I intend to ask West Virginians for their continued support when the time comes."

For her part, Capito isn't ruling out a run either.

Gubernatorial:

NH-Gov: Republican Ted Gatsas just won re-election as mayor of Manchester on Tuesday night—and then immediately refused to say whether he'd serve out his full two-year term. That's a big change from June, when he pledged to do just that, and is leading people to speculate that he might be interested in seeking the GOP gubernatorial nomination.

House:

IL-14: It seems that when he's not threatening to punch his Republican House colleagues in the face, frosh GOP Rep. Joe Walsh likes to keep busy by literally screaming in the faces of his constituents. Just watch the video (and keep your cursor on the volume control):

Almost as amazing as Walsh's behavior is his explanation—that he was "working on an empty stomach"! (James L)

MN-08: Former state Sen. Tarryl Clark just picked up the endorsement of a local branch of the United Steelworkers, in her bid for the Democratic nomination to take on GOP Rep. Chip Cravaack.

NC-10: Asheville Mayor Terry Bellamy (the first African-American to hold that post) says she's considering a run against GOP Rep. Patrick McHenry in the redrawn 10th CD. Democratic-leaning Asheville was largely moved into the 10th during redistricting, to try to weaken Dem Rep. Heath Shuler in the adjacent 11th, but it also had the effect of making the new 10th a bit bluer. Still, it's rough going: Now it's a 42-57 Obama district, up from 36-63.

NY-10: Groan. Crazy man Charles Barron (who also happens to hold a seat on the New York City Council) has been threatening that he might run in the Democratic primary against Rep. Ed Towns for a long time. Now, he's claiming (on Facebook, no less) that he's "exploring a possible RUN FOR CONGRESS" (caps-lock in original). Why do I care? Because Towns is dead weight and could well be dispatched by Assemblyman Hakeem Jeffries, who has been ramping up for a likely challenge in recent months. But while Barron probably only rates gadfly status, we all know how clown cars work.

OR-05, WV-03: The NRCC is trotting out the same ad it's used against Dem Reps. Dave Loebsack and Mike McIntyre, this time targeting Oregon's Kurt Schrader and West Virginia's Nick Rahall. The spot tries to link Obama's jobs bill with the 2009 stimulus, and the buys, of course, are small ($14K and $16K, respectively). I note, though, that this is the second time this year they've run an ad against Schrader, who previously got hit with a spot accusing him of fomenting a "government takeover of healthcare."

PA-08: Ugh. This is bad news. Doylestown Township Supervisor Cynthia Philo started discussing a possible bid against GOP Rep. Mike Fitzpatrick last month, but as I noted at the time, "first she has to deal with re-election to her current job." Well, she didn't. She lost badly last night, which makes it an open question whether a further run really is in the cards for her. Though honestly, such an egregious failure to take care of business back home doesn't speak well of her skills as a candidate, so maybe it's better we learned this now, while recruitment season is still wide open.

Other Races:

Everett, MA: The town of Everett, Mass. (pop. 42K) had the unique distinction of being the only city in America with a bicameral city council. Not anymore. Yesterday, residents there voted to eliminate the two-tiered system in favor of a streamlined single body. In my humble opinion, we should do this at the state legislative level, too. And get rid of the U.S. Senate while we're at it.

Hartford, CT: In an interesting quirk of local election law, no party can hold more than two-thirds of the seats for any at-large municipal body in Connecticut. The city council in ultra-blue Hartford is a good example, where Democrats had long held six of nine seats, with the remaining three going to Republicans by default. But in 2009, the Working Families Party bumped two GOPers off the council, and last night, they knocked off the final member, giving the body a 6D-3WFP makeup.

KY-Treas: One somewhat surprising race last night was the Kentucky Treasurer contest, where incumbent Todd Hollenbach held Republican K.C. Crosbie off by just a 49-46 margin. Five percent were saying "Boo-urns" and cast ballots for Libertarian Ken Moellman—which may have been enough to save Hollenbach's hide. The numbers stand out, though, because except for the woeful Bob Farmer (who got killed in the Ag. Commish race), every statewide Dem managed at least 55% (and the extraordinary Alison Lundergan Grimes racked up a monster 61%). Here's at least one possible explanation for the underperformance: Crosbie outraised Hollenbach 2-to-1 and had enough money to run attack ads on TV.

A knowledgeable reader writes in with further thoughts:

1) Hollenbach really didn't raise any money, but the money that he did raise he spent ineffectively on TV. For example, he bought one spot during a primetime college football game as opposed to 10 spots on the evening news.

2) He was a pretty ineffective campaigner—he wanted to go talk to far-right groups as opposed to rallying his Democratic base.

3) Lexington Mayor Jim Gray (one of the first openly gay elected officials in Kentucky) endorsed Republican K.C. Crosbie due to the fact that when wildly anti-gay bigot (and conservative activist) Frank Simon endorsed Hollenbach in 2007 during his first campaign for Treasurer, Hollenbach refused to denounce the endorsement.

4) He relied a lot on his base in Louisville but really didn't reach out much to the rest of the state.

MS Lege: Though a couple of races are still undecided, Mississippi Republicans are on track to take control of the state House from Democrats with something like a 63-59 majority. They also padded their majority a bit in the state Senate and are likely to control it by a 29-23 or 30-22 margin.

NJ Lege: It didn't receive a lot of attention in the wider blogosphere because control was never at stake, but Democrats performed well last night in New Jersey's legislative elections, where every seat in both chambers was up. There was no change in the state Senate, and Dems picked up one seat in the Assembly. But it's mostly a black eye for GOP Gov. Chris Christie, since he campaigned and raised money for several Republican challengers, none of whom won. And according to Jersey Dems, the GOP has the fewest state legislators since Watergate.

OH SB5: Courtesy KingofSpades, an awesome map of last night's results for Issue 2 in Ohio:

Ohio Issue 2 Nov. 8, 2011 results map
Click here to drill down by county. And Greg Giroux has another chart, this time comparing the vote on Issue 2 with the last year's gubernatorial vote, on a county-by-county basis. Interesting tidbit: 12 of 88 counties saw greater turnout on Tuesday than they did in Nov. 2010.

Pennsylvania: Here's about as clear an illustration of the two halves of Pennsylvania, and the different political directions they're heading in, as you'll see. Last night, Westmoreland County (the most populous of Pittsburgh's collar counties, and a one-time union stronghold with a rapidly aging population), elected a Republican majority on its county board of supervisors for the first time since the 1950s. At the same time, Montgomery County (the most populous of Philadelphia's suburban counties, with a once-legendary GOP machine), elected a Democratic majority on its county board for the first time since... well, ever! (David Jarman)

Princeton, NJ: And here's another example of disappearing government: Voters in Princeton Borough and Princeton Township approved a referendum which would unite their two jurisdictions into one. Apparently such measures have failed in the past, but advocates are hoping to push further consolidations throughout the state, arguing that such moves will lead to cost savings.

Recalls: You already know about the legislative recalls in Arizona and Michigan (where two Republican legislators were yanked from office), but Joshua Spivak has a complete rundown on all the recalls at every level throughout the nation. The final tally looks like 14 officials removed and 12 sustained, but click through for the full details.

Grab Bag:

Election Law: An interesting post by NYU Prof. Richard Pildes, guest-blogging at Rick Hasen's Election Law Blog, makes the argument that the SpeechNow case, rather than the more famous Citizens United, paved the way for the creation of Super PACs—which he also thinks don't really represent a major break from previous vehicles like 527s and 501(c)(4)s. An interesting (and quick) read.

Redistricting Roundup:

AZ Redistricting: The Arizona Supreme Court refused to reinstate redistricting commissioner Colleen Mathis yesterday while her suit over her ouster is pending. But this is only a preliminary ruling. The court will hear oral arguments regarding the propriety of Mathis's removal on Nov. 17 and will likely issue a decision soon after.

Originally posted to Daily Kos Elections on Thu Nov 10, 2011 at 05:00 AM PST.

Also republished by Virginia Kos and Daily Kos.

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Comment Preferences

  •  I'm working on Senate predictions (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    kestrel9000, MichaelNY

    Do you know of a database with all the senate polling numbers?

    Founder Math and Statistics Geeks . Statistics for progressives

    by plf515 on Thu Nov 10, 2011 at 05:17:12 AM PST

  •  Do the VA results tell us anything about what we (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    TofG, MichaelNY, LordMike

    might expect regarding the presidential race next year?

    Also, do we have any reason to think a GOP VA legislature will be less likely to overreach thanks to the thumping in OH and MS? I realize VA is a solid right to work state but there are other areas for them to overreach on, like there own version of a personhood amendment.

    Ds see human suffering and wonder what they can do to relieve it. Rs see human suffering and wonder how they can profit from it.

    by JTinDC on Thu Nov 10, 2011 at 05:29:27 AM PST

    •  I wouldn't read too much into them. (7+ / 0-)

      I don't thin that losing various seats in rural Virginia is extremely significant, since these areas aren't those we would rely on in a federal race either way.

      Also, these seats were last up for election in 2007. This performance, while not great, isn't exactly terrible either.

      •  Well, given it was a Dem gerrymander, not so good (0+ / 0-)

        Granted, it wasn't the greatest Dem gerrymander, as David points out. But if you can't win your own gerrymandered map, it implies that either the political environment or the state's natural leanings are not as Democratic as many here might hope.

        •  That's not the right characterization at all. (8+ / 0-)

          Under the original map, there would be a new compact Dem district in Richmond, which would have given Dems a pickup.  But that was vetoed so they did an incumbent protection map or else they would have most likely lost the majority outright.

          So, not a Dem gerrymander.  Just a Dem-favoring incumbent protection map.  Think CA 2001.

          'An eye for an eye makes the whole world blind.' -Mahatma Gandhi

          by KingofSpades on Thu Nov 10, 2011 at 06:20:59 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  VA needs to HAVE an active Dem party (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            TofG, James Allen

            which, quite clearly, they don't.  Far too many districts had one lone uncontested GOP candidate (usually but not always the incumbent). When you cede THAT much territory to the opposition, you are just BEGGING for permanent minority status.

            If it's
            Not your body
            Then it's
            Not your choice
            AND it's
            None of your damn business!

            by TheOtherMaven on Thu Nov 10, 2011 at 07:53:13 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

      •  OK, that answers question 1. Got an opinion on (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        question 2? Will a GOP VA legislature overreach or will they take a lesson from OH, ME, MS and other states where the GOP overreached?

        Ds see human suffering and wonder what they can do to relieve it. Rs see human suffering and wonder how they can profit from it.

        by JTinDC on Thu Nov 10, 2011 at 06:26:03 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Not too sure about that one. (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, JTinDC, LordMike

          I guess that Republicans wouldn't try a hard right turn with just a year to go to a presidental election. Unless they're trying to motivate their base to go to the polls.

          Then again, common sense is a rare commodity within the GOP. Which is why SB5 was passed in the first place.

        •  Let me take a stab... (4+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          JTinDC, LordMike, murrayewv, MichaelNY

          Absolutely. The nut-job Bob Marshall's of the House will be further emboldened believing the Senate will go along now. The Democrats in Virginia need to stop ceding rural seats to Republicans. We need our own "50-state" strategy. I hope Tom Perriello runs for the Dem gov nomination. He could win on the coat-tails of GOP/Tea-Party implosion.

          "We can have democracy in this country, or we can have great wealth concentrated in the hands of a few, but we can't have both." - Louis D. Brandeis

          by VA6thDem on Thu Nov 10, 2011 at 08:34:58 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

    •  VA Govs are limited to one term (5+ / 0-)

      Bolling is going to take the opportunity to "show leadership" in what is unavoidably a showdown with AG Cuccinelli (who will counter with very high profile, VERY selective prosecutions and investigations) for the 2013 nomination.

      It will be ugly. And they won't care what or who gets hurt along the way.

      Occupy Wall Street AND K Street!!!!

      by Egalitare on Thu Nov 10, 2011 at 06:50:45 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  I'm guessing that's right (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        JTinDC, itskevin, David Nir, MichaelNY

        I, too, think Bolling will have his eye toward the GOP primary in 2013.  He would lose to wingnut/teabagger darling Cuccinelli today, perhaps badly, and needs to shore up his wingnut bona fides in a more conspicuous way to make himself look at least as strong.

        Cooch might not run for Governor anyway, but Bolling would be smart to presume his own political strength plays a role in Cooch's decision.  So again, Bolling has a political need to flex muscle.

        I fear how ugly it will be for us the next couple years, and hope only that we can turn it around in the next federal and state cycles the next couple years.

        43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Thu Nov 10, 2011 at 07:16:46 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  this may help Obama (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        LordMike, murrayewv, itskevin, MichaelNY

        If VA starts ramming through a lot of right wing social crap the voters in Northern VA will not like it. McDonnell has stayed popular by keeping a moderate image.
        If they overreach democrats will benefit.

    •  On your 1st ?, good piece in Politico (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      JTinDC, KingofSpades, itskevin, MichaelNY

      Politico is hit-and-miss in quality, but this is a good piece:  

      I do think overall we can say Obama is doing OK in NoVA and needs a bigger supermargin in my neck of the woods than he got last time to offset losses elsewhere in the state.  One good thing is that he actually had such a comfortable margin last time that he can afford some very modest losses and still hold the state, but milking every last possible vote in NoVA will be essential.

      43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Thu Nov 10, 2011 at 07:12:46 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Yeah, it's 50/50.... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      ....which is where the election is right about now.

      GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

      by LordMike on Thu Nov 10, 2011 at 09:57:43 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  I was glad that my Senator pulled it out against a (0+ / 0-)

    terrible, horrible obnoxious good-ol-boy republican candidate, despite the 1,000,000 trees worth of literature that was mailed to me.

    Justified anger does not grant you unrestricted license.

    by GoGoGoEverton on Thu Nov 10, 2011 at 05:39:20 AM PST

  •  Q polls out in 3 battle ground states. (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Paleo, MichaelNY, Odysseus, LordMike

    They give Romney the lead by 3 in FL, Obama the lead by 3 in OH, and he leads Romney by 1 in PA.

    http://politicalwire.com/...

    So.... who is right on OH? is it 3? or is it 9 like PPP was showing? Guess we'll find out when more polls start coming.

    20, Male. DKE! “Music speaks what cannot be expressed, soothes the mind and gives it rest, heals the heart and makes it whole, flows from heaven to the soul.” anonymous

    by aggou on Thu Nov 10, 2011 at 05:43:50 AM PST

    •  Q's probably closer to the truth (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      wishingwell, MichaelNY, LordMike

      But both are encouraging.  While Pennsylvania is not.

      Anyway, it's hard envision any scenario where Obama would win Ohio but lose Pennsylvania.  I don't think that's happened to a Democrat since 1948.

      “If you think I can be bought for five thousand dollars, I'm offended." Rick Perry.

      by Paleo on Thu Nov 10, 2011 at 05:58:42 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Come on. Southeast and northeast pa. (Casey (6+ / 0-)

        running for reelection and Joe Biden's old turf) will be solid for Obama, and southwest Pa. is losing population.

      •  I don't think either is "closer" to "truth" (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        TofG, KingofSpades, itskevin, askew

        When you poll questions that respondents don't think about much on their own time, you get fluid results.  Survey responses this far out are especially sensitive to small things like question wording, question ordering, and other methodological differences.  The same guy easily could pick a candidate in one survey and say "undecided" in a different survey a week later, if (un)lucky enough to get polled twice.  Once we get closer and people have given more earnest thought, they're more consistent in how they answer.

        I think it's fair to say Obama has a predictable small edge in PA, a tougher row to hoe in FL which long has been a bit more conservative than PA and OH, and a bit of a recent surge in OH due to the Issue 2 focus.

        The real question to me is whether the recent surge in Ohio can and will last, or if it fades as the Issue 2 fight becomes distant.  I can easily see it going either way.

        43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Thu Nov 10, 2011 at 07:25:25 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  The PA poll is a little light on African Americans (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          TofG

          The OH and FL racial splits look very similar to 2008. PA was 81-13 back then while here Q find 84-9. I find that significant.

          “I am a man of fixed and unbending principles, the first of which is to be flexible at all times.” Everett Dirksen (R-IL)

          by conspiracy on Thu Nov 10, 2011 at 08:05:35 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  I think the surge subsides, and comes back (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          TofG

          By definition i suppose that would be 2 surges.

          Seriously though, I'm thinking the genious of Democratic chances next year is not running against your GOP opponent, but rather running against the most unpopular GOPer in a given State/district.  

          In Ohio, both Obama and Brown will run against Kasich, not Romney or the GOP senate candidate.  Obama and Nelson will run against Rick Scott, not Romney or Connie Mack (heck Nelson announced this already, i think it's brilliant).  In Wisconsin, Obama and Tammy Baldwin willr un against Walker, not Romney or neumann.

          To me this is certainly an intriguing proposition, and one I'd like to see Dems undertake in the states having 2010 GOP buyer's remorse.  In many of these places, the 2010 buyer's remorse could offset the same remorse people have for Obama.

          •  Partly (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            James Allen

            But Romney himself has so much to work with it would be an abrogation to focus too much elsewhere. It all has to be tied into an overraching narrative - "This is what Kasich/Scott have done after you gave them the benefit of the doubt. Here is Romney's record. You really want to go there again?"

            “I am a man of fixed and unbending principles, the first of which is to be flexible at all times.” Everett Dirksen (R-IL)

            by conspiracy on Thu Nov 10, 2011 at 08:20:22 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  I think its easier (0+ / 0-)

              That's too open-ended.  I think you could frame it more directly with where ROmney either agrees with Scott/Walker/Kasich, and the times when he's not on the record as agreeing, assuming he implicitly agrees.

              The only issue with running direct at Romney is he doesn't seem tragically unlikeable.  One on with Obama I don't think the debates make either seem unlikeable to an average person.  So I worry that people might just decide they like the businessman more than the congressman.  I'd sidestep it where possible.

              •  At the end of the day (0+ / 0-)

                You run against the nominee not their surrogates. It is something to use but shouldn't be the primary focus IMO.

                "There are a lot of reasons not to elect me. "Mitt Romney (R-All Over The Map)

                by conspiracy on Thu Nov 10, 2011 at 08:31:15 AM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  Well yes (0+ / 0-)

                  But its almost always easier for a politician to run against another politician.  Seems like people consdier Romney more businessman than a former governor with a record.

                  To me the ads play out, "Mitt Romney supported kasich's plan to ", etc.  Practically writes itself.

                  •  I agree that is the way to frame it (0+ / 0-)

                    But people don't know Romney's record. He has hardly been touched during the primary. Indeed, they are making him look moderate with their antics. Now, as I pointed out elsewhere - a third of the electorate in those Q polls are yet to form an opinion. This is where Obama's fundraising comes in. He and his surrogates can walk and chew at the same time.

                    "There are a lot of reasons not to elect me." Mitt Romney (R-All Over The Map)

                    by conspiracy on Thu Nov 10, 2011 at 08:37:08 AM PST

                    [ Parent ]

    •  I'll wait for PPP to poll PA (8+ / 0-)

      Not too long ago, Magellan gave Obama a 50-40 lead there.

      'An eye for an eye makes the whole world blind.' -Mahatma Gandhi

      by KingofSpades on Thu Nov 10, 2011 at 06:10:37 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  They could both be right (5+ / 0-)

      One is likely voters for the other day the other is registered voters for next year. Whatever, Obama is holding up pretty well in Ohio. I would also add that almost a third in each of these states haven't heard enough about Romney to form an opinion. Obviously this cuts both ways but Obama has an opportunity there to do some damage with his favorables. There are also more Democrats than Republicans undecided in each state.

      “I am a man of fixed and unbending principles, the first of which is to be flexible at all times.” Everett Dirksen (R-IL)

      by conspiracy on Thu Nov 10, 2011 at 07:49:35 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Bad headline of the day, from Politico: (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        TofG, askew, MichaelNY

        "Ohio back on President Obama's dance card."

        Was it ever off of it?  While it looked more difficult over most of the past two years, and still will require a lot of work, Team Obama almost certainly never wrote it off, although they probably need it less than the GOP does.

        •  They are absolutely clueless (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          The campaign has said repeatedly that the electoral college strategy is exactly the same as 2008 - keep open as many different avenues to 270 as possible.

          "There are a lot of reasons not to elect me." Mitt Romney (R-All Over The Map)

          by conspiracy on Thu Nov 10, 2011 at 02:18:16 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

    •  Q is more right... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      TofG

      PPP's poll is based on the electorate that they expected to turnout in 2011.  I'd argue the poll they did in October was more accurate than their most recent one.

  •  MN-8 (4+ / 0-)

    The local USW is a big get for Clark in that district.

    And on a personal note, I have decided to no longer work on the MN-8 campaign, as I have taken a job at a different company, and will be relocating even further from the 8th district.

  •  Gallup: Obama 43% generic Republican 42% (10+ / 0-)

    Up from 38%-46%.  Gains made among independents.

    http://www.gallup.com/...

    “If you think I can be bought for five thousand dollars, I'm offended." Rick Perry.

    by Paleo on Thu Nov 10, 2011 at 05:55:03 AM PST

  •  NC-10 (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, MichaelNY, sulthernao

    has been used as a Republican vote-sink by Democrats during redistricting for decades. Having a competitve race there now would certainly be something new.

    NC-10: Asheville Mayor Terry Bellamy (the first African-American to hold that post) says she's considering a run against GOP Rep. Patrick McHenry in the redrawn 10th CD. Democratic-leaning Asheville was largely moved into the 10th during redistricting

    Given what a jerk McHenry has been as a Congressman, you just never know if this might turn into a race.

    Good luck to Bellamy - this is why we need a 50-State strategy. Turds like Patrick should have to work to get re-elected.

    "Here is my principle: Taxes shall be levied according to ability to pay. That is the only American principle." Franklin D. Roosevelt

    by bear83 on Thu Nov 10, 2011 at 05:58:55 AM PST

  •  Little 'ol Prince Edward County went sold blue (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, TofG, MichaelNY, wishingwell

    Hooray for Southside!

    38% turnout of active voters, though it is interesting to note that regarding the House of Delegate race with the republican running unopposed, only 23% could bring themselves to pull the lever.  Which I take it to mean not much enthusiasm for the candidate.

    I hope that the powers that be take note that Virginia is worthy of competent campaign management, and not to simply shrug shoulders and hope for the best.

    For every complex problem there is an answer that is clear, simple, and wrong. - HL Mencken

    by wretchedhive on Thu Nov 10, 2011 at 05:59:58 AM PST

  •  Pat Boone=Skeletor? What? You don't agree? Quiet (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike

    for a minute or I'm going to ask you to leave!

    (I need some more coffee).

  •  Interesting note on WA elections (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    I've seen a general belief here that Washington's all-party primary is a good indicator of support for the general election. But in Spokane, where incumbent mayor Mary Verner is trailing 52-47 and needs a hugely favorable result just to barely win, the primary results were actually incredibly favorable to the incumbent: 59% Verner, 33% Condon (the guy who's currently beating her).

    21, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

    by sapelcovits on Thu Nov 10, 2011 at 06:23:03 AM PST

  •  Does anyone know if there is a site (0+ / 0-)

    who compiled all the votes from every state this passed Tuesday together, to see how many people voted total in this years off year election? I'd be very interested to see.

    20, Male. DKE! “Music speaks what cannot be expressed, soothes the mind and gives it rest, heals the heart and makes it whole, flows from heaven to the soul.” anonymous

    by aggou on Thu Nov 10, 2011 at 06:36:12 AM PST

  •  Elizabeth Warren (6+ / 0-)

    I don't know what the most recent polling shows, although I vaguely recall that Warren was ahead.  But the vibe here in Massachusetts is definitely in Warren's favor.  Martha Coakley lost because she was a terrible candidate in an off-year when anti-Obama feelings were running high nationally.  It was a perfect storm of conditions not likely to repeat.  On the contrary, the motivation to unseat Brown in strong, and in a presidential election year the turnout will be high.  The signs look good that Senator Brown's days are numbered.  Then he can spend more time with his pickup truck.

    "We must move forward, not backward, upward not forward, and always twirling, twirling, twirling towards freedom." - Kodos

    by Jon Stafford on Thu Nov 10, 2011 at 06:42:49 AM PST

    •  Brown is history (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      TofG, sulthernao, Jon Stafford

      No way he beats Warren in Massachusetts amid an Obama landslide at the top of the ticket.  That level of ticket-splitting is rare these days, and with control of the Senate on the line, democrats aren't going there.  Brown's only chance is if he cleans up with indies more than 2 to 1.

      I'm already mentally counting this one as a dem pickup, and then counting down seats that we could lose from 54.  Honestly I think we're going to win in Nevada too, though that one is a little less certain.

      •  I think we have some good opportunities (4+ / 0-)

        In NV and AZ. NV is trending pretty heavily Democratic and Heller has his Paul Ryan vote hanging around his neck, and if Romney is the nominee I have no doubt that his "brilliant" foreclosure strategy is going to be played ad nauseum across the state (which is the hardest hit by the foreclosure crisis in the US).

        Without Mccain at the top of the ticket and with 4 years of continued Latino growth our candidate in AZ stands a good chance of getting to the Senate if Obama carries the state so we could very well see our numbers remain stable in the Senate.

        I'm most word about MO. I think that seat is the most in danger of a flip after North Dakota and Nebraska - both of which are not in the bag for Republicans yet anyway.

        •  I think control of the Senate hinges on (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          Missouri. If we lose there, it probably means we lost in Virginia, Nebraska, North Dakota, and Montana. Even if we win Massachusetts (which we will), that gives us 49.

          I don't think we take Nevada if we lose all those states. So holding the Senate rests with McCaskill.

          "Every daring attempt to make a great change in existing conditions, every lofty vision of new possibilities for the human race, has been labeled Utopian."

          by xcave on Thu Nov 10, 2011 at 08:25:53 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  I'm confident about obama (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            TofG, MichaelNY

            But every time I look at the list of Senate races, I find just too many scenarios to work through.  I agree with youa ssumptions/assertions.  I just find it odd that I could see each race going one way or the other for various reasons, but see not-impossible scenarios where all of the races you list go Dem and also not-impossible scenarios where they all go GOP.  

            I know its a years out but it still all seems so uncertain.

          •  I think Virginia/Montana/Nevada (0+ / 0-)

            Are more likely than Missouri to be Democratic. So yes, if we are losing them we will probably lose the Senate. But I believe even if Romney is the candidate we are favored in Nevada, Mass, and Virginia with Arizona, Missouri, and Montana as tossups and Nebraska and North Dakota as tilt R.

            I do see a scenario where Heitkamp or Nelson takes a seat and we successfully defend MN or MO and take 3 of the 4 in NV, MA, VA, and AZ. I really think this is the plausible scenario if Obama wins the Presidency and we successfully defend our other seats, which would give us 55 to work with in the Senate.

            Although, it would tickle me liberal if we were able to hold Nebraska and ND while sweeping the tossups, which bumps us up to 57 and puts us in a really good position to defend our majority in 2014.

            •  If we hold the Senate through 2014 (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              TofG

              Then I think we're looking at a pretty permanent Democratic majority. I can't see us doing what would be required for that without then picking up 4 or 5 seats in 2016

              "Every daring attempt to make a great change in existing conditions, every lofty vision of new possibilities for the human race, has been labeled Utopian."

              by xcave on Thu Nov 10, 2011 at 09:48:33 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

            •  Nevada is more likely than incumbent (0+ / 0-)

              Claire McCaskill winning reelection? Why do you think so?

              Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

              by MichaelNY on Thu Nov 10, 2011 at 08:39:18 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

          •  I think Kaine is more likely to hold on (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            to that seat than that we hold any of those others.

            I changed by not changing at all, small town predicts my fate, perhaps that's what no one wants to see. -6.38, -4.15

            by James Allen on Thu Nov 10, 2011 at 10:25:30 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

        •  MT before MO (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          James Allen, MichaelNY

          Rehberg looks to be a much tougher opponent than any of the scrubs McCaskill is up against, and MT is still more red than MO. I would put VA next after those two, but I don't see Kaine losing that one unless Obama loses the state by 5 or more.

          SSP poster. 42, CA-5, -0.25/-3.90

          by sacman701 on Thu Nov 10, 2011 at 10:09:25 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  McCaskill is also polling pretty solidly (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            just slightly ahead, whereas Tester is consistently polling close behind.

            I changed by not changing at all, small town predicts my fate, perhaps that's what no one wants to see. -6.38, -4.15

            by James Allen on Thu Nov 10, 2011 at 10:26:37 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Well, it looks like Mass. and Nev. could be put as (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              lean Democratic, as Minn and Virginia. (holds),

              with Arizona Missouri Montana toss-ups

              ND and Nebraska lean Republican.

              (if Obama wins).

              Which would be 52-54 senate. Of course, if there's no filibuster repeal/change that should lead to more years of the Turtle blocking any action (irrespective of possible House switch).

          •  Rehberg? (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            What is it that makes him a tough opponent? He's never been challenged the way he will be by Tester, and the word on the ground is that Rehberg is a gaffe machine-- Conrad Burns 2.0, so to speak. Don't get me wrong, it's going to be a squeaker right up to the last second, but I don't see what it is about Rehberg that is more formidable than any given R.

            28, chick, solid progressive, NY-14 currently, FL-22 native, went to school in IL-01.

            by The Caped Composer on Thu Nov 10, 2011 at 03:43:27 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

  •  In PA, we need Philly to vote big and the (4+ / 0-)

    suburbs and because of that, we need to be prepared for the voter ID thing.  As they are going to be quite strict from what I hear. They will not even accept out of state drivers license from college students. And we need those college students at Temple, Penn State, Pitt, and other colleges to be voting. I live in a small college that is private and expensive so a lot of the students are from out of state. Bucknell and Susquehanna are both in my district and close by. So many students are from out of state.

  •  I love that Ohio map (6+ / 0-)

    That just made me all warm and fuzzy this morning.

    If at first you don't succeed, vote Teapublicans out and try again. You have to be persistent if you want anything out of life.

    by Final Frame on Thu Nov 10, 2011 at 07:09:11 AM PST

  •  Not sure how much Jim Gray's endorsement did (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    As much as I hate the idea of endorsing a Republican in this state, as the GOP here is about as odious as the audience for a Repub Candidate debate, I think it's cool that he made a Democrat pay a price for playing to the homophobes in the crowd.  When I went door to door for Kerry here I told the campaign office that I would not hand out fliers for Dan Mongiardo, who I believe was running for governor at the time, because he was quite the homophobe.  

    That said, although I have been a bit busier than usual leading up to this election and so not quite so up on things, I have been to the mayor's website as recently as two weeks ago and read up on KY politics regularly and just here and now learned of the mayor's endorsement of the Republican, so I am not sure it figured so heavily into the results.

  •  Question: Boenher's District (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike

    Is there a list of results by Congressional Districts?  How did Boner do?  

    “It's a terrible thing to look over your shoulder when you are trying to lead - and find no one there” ---Franklin D. Roosevelt

    by vmckimmey on Thu Nov 10, 2011 at 07:16:07 AM PST

  •  Joe Walsh, IL-14, is headed for the door, if (5+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    TofG, sulthernao, LordMike, MichaelNY, Odysseus

    he keeps treating his constituents this way! My jaw dropped.  He didn't let one person speak. That poor lady who tried valiantly to speak and got shut down had a look on her face.... What a rude s.o.b.! I bet I can tell what his family life was like.

    -6.50/-5.23 "Don't find fault, find a remedy." - Henry Ford

    by Merry Light on Thu Nov 10, 2011 at 07:18:44 AM PST

  •  Joe was probably skipping lunch to save (0+ / 0-)

    money so he could provide for his children.

    Almost as amazing as Walsh's behavior is his explanation—that he was "working on an empty stomach"! (James L)

    Give the guy a break!

    "extreme concentration of income is incompatible with real democracy.... the truth is that the whole nature of our society is at stake." Paul Krugman

    by Gorette on Thu Nov 10, 2011 at 07:19:07 AM PST

  •  There was a frenzy of... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Marcus Graly

    municipal amalgamation in Canada, mostly in Ontario and Quebec, from the mid-90s to the early 2000s, with the intention to save money. But there, the amalgamations were imposed on the people by their premier and their province, even when they were rejected in referenda. If I recall, most studies afterwards showed that it didn't, and often the efffect was the opposite. When these provinces elected their next premiers, both campaigned on holding referendums to undo the amalgamations, and while Ontario never followed through on the promise, Quebec did and some of them were undone.

    If the Princetons, and other municipalities,  vote to amalgamate themselves, rather than the tyrannical method used in Canada, that's their business. But I'd be skeptical of the "savings".

    •  The only savings is in middle-mgmt (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      But it might be real.  its no different than states that encourage small school districts to merge.  Since some states have laws requiring certaing roles (School psychologist, school principal, school business manager) there might be some rendundancies.  the same probably applies to neighborhing towns (streets superintedent, coroner, etc).  The savings will be minimal in the grand scheme but they did vote yes.

      Seems odd really, Princeton shouldn't really have money problems.

    •  well my guess is that initially it would cost more (0+ / 0-)

      and any savings would be 8-12 years down the line and thereafter.

      I changed by not changing at all, small town predicts my fate, perhaps that's what no one wants to see. -6.38, -4.15

      by James Allen on Thu Nov 10, 2011 at 10:29:41 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  NJ-Lege: Don't forget us. (8+ / 0-)

    We have the most Dem state legislators since Watergate now!

    'An eye for an eye makes the whole world blind.' -Mahatma Gandhi

    by KingofSpades on Thu Nov 10, 2011 at 07:56:24 AM PST

  •  Initial jobless claims (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, drachaCRO, itskevin, askew

    “I am a man of fixed and unbending principles, the first of which is to be flexible at all times.” Everett Dirksen (R-IL)

    by conspiracy on Thu Nov 10, 2011 at 07:57:47 AM PST

  •  BlueMassGroup looks at Rove's ad (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    http://bluemassgroup.com/...

    What do you guys think?

    'An eye for an eye makes the whole world blind.' -Mahatma Gandhi

    by KingofSpades on Thu Nov 10, 2011 at 07:59:44 AM PST

    •  I think it would work outside of Massachusetts, (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, KingofSpades

      but I think it'll fall pretty flat.  I think most people in Massachusetts would support OWS and a radical redistribution of wealth.  I think a lot of Brown's 2010 blue collar voters would appreciate some more spreading of the wealth from Wall Street.

      I changed by not changing at all, small town predicts my fate, perhaps that's what no one wants to see. -6.38, -4.15

      by James Allen on Thu Nov 10, 2011 at 10:32:31 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  PA-Gov, PA-7 (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, TofG, LordMike, MichaelNY

    From the following on Joe Sestak's facebook

    Joe on JoePa and PennState:

    "Before you throw somebody away, due process must be done - at least an investigation. Both institutions have failed to do that."

    I'd say Sestak plans to run statewide. Penn State is nowhere near the 7th district and a lot of folks in PA-7 root for the other Penn (U of Penn, the ivy founded by Ben Franklin).
  •  Boone is a creep, but (0+ / 0-)

    the IPAB is arguably the worst idea to come out of PPACA, and was only jammed into the Senate bill.

    Unapologetic Obama supporter.

    by Red Sox on Thu Nov 10, 2011 at 08:44:15 AM PST

  •  Found this odd outlier at Pollster (4+ / 0-)

    Republican firm Resurgent Republic (Ayres, McHenry & Associates), find Obama at 50-47 job approval yet trailing a generic Republican opponent 43-42. Democrats lead the generic House ballot by 2 points. Odd because 46% of the sample are conservative. The electorate last November was 42% conservative according to the exit poll.

    http://www.resurgentrepublic.com/...

    "There are a lot of reasons not to elect me." Mitt Romney (R-All Over The Map)

    by conspiracy on Thu Nov 10, 2011 at 08:57:50 AM PST

  •  Romney, Gingrich and the rest (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    I wanted to add something to the spirited discussion on yesterday's digest. DCCyclone (who after last night renounced his position Perry can win) was making the point that no one is in a position to beat Romney for the nomination, and a couple of posters were trying to argue Gingrich could do it because once the Cain meltdown is complete his support (along with Perry's and other nonviable candidates) could gravitate to Gingrich and give him the lead.

    One misconception that I think the posters arguing with DC had (that I don't think he pointed out) is that supporters of one candidate would automatically gravitate to another. But another scenario that happens frequently in a primary and more frequently in a caucus (maybe less frequently in a general) is that those supporters, when they become unhappy with a specific candidate, just don't vote. In other words, it's entirely possible that disillusioned Cain supporters won't move to Gingrich (who has plenty of his own problems). In fact, I think this is what's going to happen, which is why I think Romney is now the prohibitive favorite for the nomination.

  •  Pat who™? (0+ / 0-)

    I thought Great White Bucks were extinct!

    Float like a manhole cover, sting like a sash weight! Clean Coal Is A Clinker!

    by JeffW on Thu Nov 10, 2011 at 10:05:24 AM PST

  •  Richard Carmona is in the AZ Senate race (0+ / 0-)

    Richard Carmona, former U.S. Surgeon General is running for the Senate seat being vacated by Jon Kyle. He will face former Arizona Democratic Party chair Don Bivens in the primary. Bivens is a more tried and true Dem, but Carmona has huge name recognition and probably a better candidate against whoever the GOP candidate is. For more info see the AP report.

  •  Jay Rockefeller (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    I spent a month this summer working on the Senate Floor (doing the only job high schoolers can do on it, hint...), and Rockefeller was in very bad physical shape. The guy just seems worn out. I don't necessarily think he is in good enough health to run a state wide campaign. He literally took 3x as much time to walk across the chamber as any other Senator did. Maybe he'll prove me wrong, but I see WV Democrats as hoping to anoint a successor.

    17. R. Il-10. Cornilles for Congress!

    by IllinoyedR on Sat Nov 12, 2011 at 02:19:35 PM PST

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