In something of a comeback after hitting the 30s, Obama's numbers have been slowly rising in the daily Gallup tracker, and now they've brought him even with the strongest Republican candidate possible: the oops-less generic Republican.
President Obama now essentially ties, 43% to 42%, a "generic" Republican candidate when U.S. registered voters are asked whom they are more likely to vote for in the presidential election next year. This marks a change from October and September, when the Republican candidate was ahead, and underscores the potential for a close presidential race in the year ahead.
Their conclusion from looking at their own historical data:
The changes in this survey matchup between Obama and a generic Republican candidate no doubt foreshadow the potential political volatility to come over the next 12 months. At this point, it seems safe to conclude that neither Obama nor the Republicans have established a stable or large lead, reasoning underscored by recent Gallup polling showing that Obama is in a dead-even race with one potential GOP nominee -- Mitt Romney -- nationally and in 12 key swing states.
Interestingly, it seems Obama has some room to grow with Democrats:
There's room to grow with indies, too, but they're a tougher sell. Still, the stumblebum Republican debates will no doubt help Obama (a recovering economy would help a lot more).
In any case, ignore pundits who write off Obama, and ignore the ones who say the Republicans can't win. The current environment is simply too volatile to call anything in advance of the election, but the takeaway is that the GOP has not made the sale.