With the release of election data for Alabama, and Mississippi for Dave's Redistricting Application. I figured I would try to get some districts made more favorable for Democrats.
Needless to say the prospects are dim as we all could guess.
Mississippi has the highest African American percentage of population at 37%. This as some 2011 Mississippi Gubernatorial election diaries have mentioned that this is a floor for the percentage of Democratic votes. I have a friend that spent time in Mississippi and worked campaigns in Hattiesburg and Noxubee County; he said that the Democratic Party is for Blacks and the Whites are now Republican. It seems to me that this notion is true when looking at the data. I can see some spuriousness in my findings in that Mississippi only has Presidential data which is 2008 and features an African American candidate and would likely not show any crossover vote amongst the races. I drew my Mississippi map before Dave uploaded election data, and I was surprised to find that the racial and Presidential data were mostly the same; the map is still a 1-3 (D-R) map that keeps Bernie Thompson safe at 60% African American VAP, if I were to get messier as seen here it can be bumped up to 62% AA VAP and 64% Obama that shows little crossover vote with whites.
Alabama was interesting. I saw that Obama won Jefferson County in 2008, this as well as Salt Lake County, Utah seem like prime opportunities for Dems to get swing seats at best in some hostile states. I drew a map that preserved all of Jefferson County and added just a little of Tuscaloosa County (Jefferson was about 98% of all of the district). Then since Dave included the 2010 Lt. Governor data which featured a popular Democratic incumbent, if one thinks of Blue Dogs or at least a moderate Democrat of some kind could win not just the Birmingham district but also retake the Huntsville 5th district. The best shot for Dems to retake one seat is in the new 6th that features a 55.8/56.2% (Obama-Folsom) percentage. The Huntsville-Gadsden district is horrid for Obama but good for Folsom who is from this area; this brings the district to 40.5/51.7% that is dubious at best with spuriousness to spread around.
As for Alabama, I think it benefits from being more populated and urban at times and reminds me of Indiana in drawing the map. As its cities that can be liberal (African Americans aid this) but act as an oasis that happens to be just the right population for a congressional district--prime for packing.
The cities/counties in its Black belt offer a large community of interest. Only issue with this is that there is not enough population below the Black belt if Mobile's African American precincts are included in the VRA district. The district itself is heavily African American at 56.8%/53.6% (Total/VAP) it should be safe at 62% Obama.
The other districts that are not in south central Alabama or Birmingham are quite hopeless for National Democrats. I tried as hard as I could to make a district in Huntsville to atleast elect a Blue Dog similar to Jim Folsom, who had carried the district 51.7-48% in the 2010 Lt. Governor's race. However with drawing districts for Blue Dogs we will either get a Health Shuler/John Barrow type that will bring frustration amongst the party faithful and be recipients of heavy targeting by GOP campaigns, and even in the case of Parker Griffith a party switch. This district voted in drones for McCain in 2008 with 60% of the vote. Not as bad as the other districts on the map of 1-4, the 5th is only swing if there is a competent loyal Blue Dog Democrat.
Now for district 6. Alabama's largest city of Birmingham in the past 20 years or more has been carved up between the city's African American urban core (going to the 7th) and the blood red suburbs going to Spencer Bacchus' 6th that is one of the most Republican districts in the country. This community of interest minded 6th has a positive Democratic PVI that saw Obama capture this district at 55%, the district grabs Talladega and its black precincts that allows the racial breakdown to be 53-40% VAP allowing for a large influence on the eventual nominee. This is however can be seen as a dummymander in that the Democratic nominee could be too far to the left or too racially minded and throw the seat into Republican hands. Meaning that it would be one of the few districts in the south that feature a Republican occupying a Democratic PVI seat.
In conclusion. These two states seem to be quite hopeless in outlook for the time being, but it could be less bad than it is. The Alabama map has already passed and protects all incumbents, if Jefferson County was to have its own district it could offer a marginal chance for a Democrat making it swingish on the national level. As for now my mappings would produce 2 Democratic (6,7), 1 Swing (5th), 4 GOP (1-4) that being said Mississippi would be just 1-3 as it would seem to be unless something major would happen with reapportionment giving Mississippi another seat or Courts mandating a second African American seat.